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Alabama 14, Arkansas 13
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Arkansas | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 53 | 79 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 37.3 | 25.7 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 13 | 15 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
4 | 6 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 3.50 | 2.33 | 4.70 |
| Leverage Rate** | 54.7% | 55.7% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.418 | 0.403 | 0.507 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Arkansas | |
| Total | 14.5 | 18.2 | |
| Rushing | 3.7 | 5.5 | |
| Passing | 10.7 | 12.7 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Arkansas | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 26.4% | 32.9% | 42.0% |
| Rushing (close) | 20.0% | 31.4% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 34.8% | 34.1% | 40.6% |
| Standard Downs | 31.0% | 36.4% | 47.3% |
| Passing Downs | 20.8% | 28.6% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Arkansas | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 1.03 | 0.70 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 1.34 | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.61 | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 1.79 | 1.08 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Arkansas | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.15 | 1.73 | 2.92 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 11.8% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 13.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 8.2 | 13.7 |
| Turnover Margin | Alabama +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +0.59 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Alabama +0.41 | |
| TO Points Margin | Alabama +5.5 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Arkansas |
| Q1 S&P | 0.159 | 0.379 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.521 | 0.519 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.249 | 0.546 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.462 | 0.236 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.326 | 0.317 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.382 | 0.360 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.614 | 0.602 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1.8 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1 | ||
Disregarding the 19 seconds Alabama was given in the final minute, the stats line up to the final result pretty well here. Turnovers helped to dig Alabama a hole, then turnovers dug the Tide out.
That's not to say that anything else made sense or did anything aesthetically pleasing. Watching this after Baylor-TCU was ... jarring.
Arkansas' defensive is significantly improved this year -- currently 46th in Def. F/+ -- but I wouldn't have thought that a top-5 defense could hold Alabama to a 20 percent rushing success rate, even with the injury to Bama's center. Either impressive for Arky or very alarming for Bama. I guess we'll find out which one.
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