Alabama 14, Arkansas 13
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||100.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||37.3||25.7||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||3.50||2.33||4.70|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Alabama||Arkansas|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Alabama||Arkansas||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Alabama||Arkansas||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Alabama||Arkansas||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.15||1.73||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||11.8%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||13.3%||7.4%||7.3%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||8.2||13.7|
|Turnover Margin||Alabama +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Alabama +0.59|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Alabama +0.41|
|TO Points Margin||Alabama +5.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.326||0.317|
|2nd Down S&P||0.382||0.360|
|3rd Down S&P||0.614||0.602|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1.8|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1|
Disregarding the 19 seconds Alabama was given in the final minute, the stats line up to the final result pretty well here. Turnovers helped to dig Alabama a hole, then turnovers dug the Tide out.
That's not to say that anything else made sense or did anything aesthetically pleasing. Watching this after Baylor-TCU was ... jarring.
Arkansas' defensive is significantly improved this year -- currently 46th in Def. F/+ -- but I wouldn't have thought that a top-5 defense could hold Alabama to a 20 percent rushing success rate, even with the injury to Bama's center. Either impressive for Arky or very alarming for Bama. I guess we'll find out which one.