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Study Hall: Alabama 14, Arkansas 13

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This isn't the look he had on his face during every single second of the game.
This isn't the look he had on his face during every single second of the game.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama 14, Arkansas 13

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Alabama Arkansas Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 53 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 37.3 25.7 29.8
Possessions 13 15
Scoring Opportunities*
4 6
Points Per Opportunity 3.50 2.33 4.70
Leverage Rate** 54.7% 55.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.418 0.403 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Alabama Arkansas
Total 14.5 18.2
Rushing 3.7 5.5
Passing 10.7 12.7
Success Rate (what's this?) Alabama Arkansas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 26.4% 32.9% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 20.0% 31.4% 43.4%
Passing (close) 34.8% 34.1% 40.6%
Standard Downs 31.0% 36.4% 47.3%
Passing Downs 20.8% 28.6% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Alabama Arkansas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.03 0.70 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.62 0.50 0.73
Passing (close) 1.34 0.84 0.99
Standard Downs 0.61 0.46 0.77
Passing Downs 1.79 1.08 1.14
Line Stats Alabama Arkansas Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.15 1.73 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 11.8% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 13.3% 7.4% 7.3%
Turnovers Alabama Arkansas
Turnovers 2 3
Turnover Points (what's this?) 8.2 13.7
Turnover Margin Alabama +1
Exp. TO Margin Alabama +0.59
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Alabama +0.41
TO Points Margin Alabama +5.5 points
Situational Alabama Arkansas
Q1 S&P 0.159 0.379
Q2 S&P 0.521 0.519
Q3 S&P 0.249 0.546
Q4 S&P 0.462 0.236
1st Down S&P 0.326 0.317
2nd Down S&P 0.382 0.360
3rd Down S&P 0.614 0.602
Projected Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1.8
Actual Scoring Margin: Alabama by 1

Disregarding the 19 seconds Alabama was given in the final minute, the stats line up to the final result pretty well here. Turnovers helped to dig Alabama a hole, then turnovers dug the Tide out.

That's not to say that anything else made sense or did anything aesthetically pleasing. Watching this after Baylor-TCU was ... jarring.

Arkansas' defensive is significantly improved this year -- currently 46th in Def. F/+ -- but I wouldn't have thought that a top-5 defense could hold Alabama to a 20 percent rushing success rate, even with the injury to Bama's center. Either impressive for Arky or very alarming for Bama. I guess we'll find out which one.