Oklahoma 31, Texas 26
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||91.0%|
|Avg Starting FP||31.4||25.2||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||5.67||5.40||4.70|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Oklahoma||Texas|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Oklahoma||Texas||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Oklahoma||Texas||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Oklahoma||Texas||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.22||2.93||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||9.1%||5.9%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||4.8%||7.3%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||0.0||8.0|
|Turnover Margin||Oklahoma +1|
|Exp. TO Margin||Oklahoma +1.17|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Texas +0.17|
|TO Points Margin||Oklahoma +8.0 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.564||0.449|
|2nd Down S&P||0.417||0.468|
|3rd Down S&P||0.256||0.573|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 6.0|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 5|
I figured the strangest game of the week was a good place to start. Covered this a bit in today's Numerical.
Texas outgained Oklahoma by 250 yards, committed only one turnover, held OU to 1-for-11 success on third downs, and lost on Saturday, 31-26. That's really difficult to do.
So how did it happen?
Field position: Oklahoma didn't hold a significant advantage here but still started its drives 6.2 yards further up the field (31.4 to 25.2). Texas didn't have many huge plays and would usually figure out a way to stall out before the end zone. Plus, almost every Texas drive either ended in points or simply ended quickly. Texas went three-and-out four times and four-and-out twice. OU also went three-and-out five times, but Texas couldn't take advantage from a field-tilting perspective.
Returns: That one Texas turnover? A pick-six by Zack Sanchez. Alex Ross also had a 91-yard kick return score. They allowed the Sooners to go up 17-3 without the offense being on the field.
Penalties: Penalties aren't always as important as we tend to think -- they hold almost no correlation to win percentages -- but when one team commits 11 for 85 yards and the other commits three for 20, it gives the less-penalized team an opportunity. Texas committed three false starts and a delay of game penalty on the first drive; two of those penalties came on the last set of downs and forced Texas to settle for a field goal. Another false start and a hold forced a three-and-out. A kick catch interference penalty set OU up in UT field position on an early field goal drive. A third-quarter personal foul led to a punt. Penalties might not be as costly as you think, but they were poorly timed for the 'Horns.
That's about it. The early return scores gave OU a cushion, and then the Sooners used up that cushion. UT cut it to 17-13 at halftime while outgaining OU, 273-19. (Plays: Texas 47, Oklahoma 15.) The second half was even and by the book.
At some point, I'll get a grasp on adding special teams to this layout, and if I had, then obviously OU's kick return touchdown would have made the "projected scoring margin" about even. Still, the flow of this game was as strange as you'll see.