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Study Hall: Oklahoma 31, Texas 26

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Ronald Martinez

Oklahoma 31, Texas 26

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 50 84
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 91.0%
Avg Starting FP 31.4 25.2 29.8
Possessions 13 15
Scoring Opportunities*
3 5
Points Per Opportunity 5.67 5.40 4.70
Leverage Rate** 64.0% 54.8% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.448 0.467 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas
Total 15.0 29.1
Rushing 6.8 10.1
Passing 8.2 19.0
Success Rate (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 34.0% 37.5% 42.0%
Rushing (close) 31.0% 38.2% 43.4%
Passing (close) 38.1% 36.8% 40.6%
Standard Downs 46.9% 37.0% 47.3%
Passing Downs 11.1% 38.5% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.88 0.84 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.75 0.72 0.73
Passing (close) 1.03 0.94 0.99
Standard Downs 0.86 0.75 0.77
Passing Downs 1.08 0.98 1.14
Line Stats Oklahoma Texas Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.22 2.93 2.92
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 9.1% 5.9% 4.7%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 4.8% 7.3%
Turnovers Oklahoma Texas
Turnovers 0 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 0.0 8.0
Turnover Margin Oklahoma +1
Exp. TO Margin Oklahoma +1.17
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Texas +0.17
TO Points Margin Oklahoma +8.0 points
Situational Oklahoma Texas
Q1 S&P #DIV/0! 0.409
Q2 S&P 0.402 0.573
Q3 S&P 0.488 0.268
Q4 S&P 0.587 0.589
1st Down S&P 0.564 0.449
2nd Down S&P 0.417 0.468
3rd Down S&P 0.256 0.573
Projected Scoring Margin: Texas by 6.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Oklahoma by 5

I figured the strangest game of the week was a good place to start. Covered this a bit in today's Numerical.

Texas outgained Oklahoma by 250 yards, committed only one turnover, held OU to 1-for-11 success on third downs, and lost on Saturday, 31-26. That's really difficult to do.

So how did it happen?

Field position: Oklahoma didn't hold a significant advantage here but still started its drives 6.2 yards further up the field (31.4 to 25.2). Texas didn't have many huge plays and would usually figure out a way to stall out before the end zone. Plus, almost every Texas drive either ended in points or simply ended quickly. Texas went three-and-out four times and four-and-out twice. OU also went three-and-out five times, but Texas couldn't take advantage from a field-tilting perspective.

Returns: That one Texas turnover? A pick-six by Zack Sanchez. Alex Ross also had a 91-yard kick return score. They allowed the Sooners to go up 17-3 without the offense being on the field.

Penalties: Penalties aren't always as important as we tend to think -- they hold almost no correlation to win percentages -- but when one team commits 11 for 85 yards and the other commits three for 20, it gives the less-penalized team an opportunity. Texas committed three false starts and a delay of game penalty on the first drive; two of those penalties came on the last set of downs and forced Texas to settle for a field goal. Another false start and a hold forced a three-and-out. A kick catch interference penalty set OU up in UT field position on an early field goal drive. A third-quarter personal foul led to a punt. Penalties might not be as costly as you think, but they were poorly timed for the 'Horns.

That's about it. The early return scores gave OU a cushion, and then the Sooners used up that cushion. UT cut it to 17-13 at halftime while outgaining OU, 273-19. (Plays: Texas 47, Oklahoma 15.) The second half was even and by the book.

At some point, I'll get a grasp on adding special teams to this layout, and if I had, then obviously OU's kick return touchdown would have made the "projected scoring margin" about even. Still, the flow of this game was as strange as you'll see.