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Study Hall: Northwestern 29, Penn State 6

Justin K. Aller

Northwestern 29, Penn State 6

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Northwestern Penn State Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 75 71
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 82.2%
Avg Starting FP 44.6 24.0 29.8
Possessions 15 16
Scoring Opportunities*
8 3
Points Per Opportunity 3.00 2.00 4.72
Leverage Rate** 54.7% 53.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.475 0.354 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Northwestern Penn State
Total 25.2 11.1
Rushing 10.5 2.5
Passing 14.6 8.6
Success Rate (what's this?) Northwestern Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 39.3% 30.5% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 34.8% 28.6% 43.4%
Passing (close) 42.1% 31.1% 40.8%
Standard Downs 46.3% 34.2% 47.5%
Passing Downs 25.0% 23.8% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Northwestern Penn State Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.80 0.55 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.57 0.31 0.72
Passing (close) 0.91 0.62 0.99
Standard Downs 0.64 0.54 0.77
Passing Downs 1.39 0.56 1.13
Line Stats Northwestern Penn State Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 1.78 1.65 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.6% 3.7% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 7.3%
Turnovers Northwestern Penn State
Turnovers 1 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 3.6 13.8
Turnover Margin Northwestern +1
Exp. TO Margin Northwestern +1.39
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Penn State +0.39
TO Points Margin Northwestern +10.2 points
Situational Northwestern Penn State
Q1 S&P 0.626 0.310
Q2 S&P 0.325 0.393
Q3 S&P 0.367 0.363
Q4 S&P 0.514 0.255
1st Down S&P 0.542 0.430
2nd Down S&P 0.363 0.317
3rd Down S&P 0.580 0.244
Projected Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 24.3
Actual Scoring Margin: Northwestern by 23

Northwestern was deserving of some good breaks and played really well ... but damn, what an egg to lay, Penn State. The offensive line fell apart, the success rate sank below 33%, there were next to no big plays, and ... damn, what an egg to lay, Penn State.