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Study Hall: Nebraska 45, Illinois 14

Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska 45, Illinois 14

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Illinois Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 62 91
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 60.1%
Avg Starting FP 25.9 34.6 29.8
Possessions 15 14
Scoring Opportunities*
5 10
Points Per Opportunity 2.80 4.50 4.72
Leverage Rate** 38.7% 49.5% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.551 0.646 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Illinois Nebraska
Total 19.7 40.0
Rushing 7.3 30.0
Passing 12.4 10.1
Success Rate (what's this?) Illinois Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 36.4% 59.3% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 46.7% 63.8% 43.4%
Passing (close) 27.8% 41.7% 40.8%
Standard Downs 41.7% 64.4% 47.5%
Passing Downs 22.2% 42.9% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Illinois Nebraska Nat'l Avg
All (close) 1.30 0.86 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.99 0.72 0.72
Passing (close) 1.73 1.71 0.99
Standard Downs 1.26 0.83 0.77
Passing Downs 1.54 0.99 1.13
Line Stats Illinois Nebraska Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 2.30 4.39 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 20.0% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Turnovers Illinois Nebraska
Turnovers 3 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 19.3 8.7
Turnover Margin Nebraska +1
Exp. TO Margin Illinois +0.14
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Nebraska +1.14
TO Points Margin Nebraska +10.5 points
Situational Illinois Nebraska
Q1 S&P 0.670 0.685
Q2 S&P 0.519 0.654
Q3 S&P 0.267 0.554
Q4 S&P 0.354 0.514
1st Down S&P 0.577 0.622
2nd Down S&P 0.364 0.597
3rd Down S&P 0.297 0.472
Projected Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 30.9
Actual Scoring Margin: Nebraska by 31

If you're getting gashed on the ground and are struggling to catch up, it's probably not very good to blow more than half of your scoring opportunities and badly lose the turnover battle. At least, that formula didn't work out very well for Illinois.