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Study Hall: Florida Atlantic 41, UTSA 37

Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Florida Atlantic 41, UTSA 37

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics Florida Atlantic UTSA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 67 79
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 100.0%
Avg Starting FP 24.7 41.3 29.8
Possessions 12 14
Scoring Opportunities*
6 9
Points Per Opportunity 5.83 4.11 4.72
Leverage Rate** 68.7% 73.4% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.554 0.536 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Florida Atlantic UTSA
Total 29.4 27.6
Rushing 10.0 12.1
Passing 19.4 15.5
Success Rate (what's this?) Florida Atlantic UTSA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 44.8% 49.4% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 40.0% 53.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 48.7% 45.0% 40.8%
Standard Downs 50.0% 55.2% 47.5%
Passing Downs 33.3% 33.3% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Florida Atlantic UTSA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.98 0.71 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.83 0.57 0.72
Passing (close) 1.08 0.86 0.99
Standard Downs 1.01 0.70 0.77
Passing Downs 0.89 0.72 1.13
Line Stats Florida Atlantic UTSA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.08 2.73 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 4.2% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 15.4% 5.6% 7.3%
Turnovers Florida Atlantic UTSA
Turnovers 2 2
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.2 15.4
Turnover Margin +0
Exp. TO Margin Florida Atlantic +0.08
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UTSA +0.08
TO Points Margin Florida Atlantic +6.1 points
Situational Florida Atlantic UTSA
Q1 S&P 0.493 0.493
Q2 S&P 0.509 0.654
Q3 S&P 0.602 0.555
Q4 S&P 0.641 0.364
1st Down S&P 0.593 0.564
2nd Down S&P 0.404 0.469
3rd Down S&P 0.565 0.662
Projected Scoring Margin: Florida Atlantic by 8.0
Actual Scoring Margin: Florida Atlantic by 4

You confuse me, FAU.

I thought the Owls were going to be legitimately decent this year, but against Nebraska and Alabama to start the season, they looked like they were 2012 FAU against 1995 Nebraska and 2011 Alabama. I didn't expect them to win either game, but I didn't expect them to lose by a combined 96-7 either.

Since then, the Owls have also lost a tight one at Wyoming, but they've whipped Tulsa at home, and on Saturday, they beat what I thought might be the best team in the CUSA West. So ... pretty good now? Just good at home? Mirage? I have no idea. But hey, nice win despite a massive field position disadvantage and an efficiency loss.