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Wisconsin 27, South Florida 10
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | South Florida | Wisconsin | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 38 | 75 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 90.3% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 24.5 | 30.0 | 29.8 |
| Possessions | 10 | 10 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* |
2 | 8 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 5.00 | 3.38 | 4.72 |
| Leverage Rate** | 60.5% | 68.0% | 68.3% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.467 | 0.550 | 0.507 |
|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) |
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| EqPts (what's this?) | South Florida | Wisconsin | |
| Total | 10.3 | 28.2 | |
| Rushing | 5.6 | 19.0 | |
| Passing | 4.6 | 9.2 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | South Florida | Wisconsin | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 40.0% | 49.3% | 42.1% |
| Rushing (close) | 38.9% | 46.9% | 43.4% |
| Passing (close) | 41.2% | 55.6% | 40.8% |
| Standard Downs | 47.8% | 56.9% | 47.5% |
| Passing Downs | 25.0% | 25.0% | 30.6% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | South Florida | Wisconsin | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.72 |
| Passing (close) | 0.66 | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.70 | 0.81 | 1.13 |
| Line Stats | South Florida | Wisconsin | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 3.11 | 3.39 | 2.90 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 16.7% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | South Florida | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 9.2 | 5.5 |
| Turnover Margin | Wisconsin +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Wisconsin +0.44 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Wisconsin +0.56 | |
| TO Points Margin | Wisconsin +3.7 points | |
| Situational | South Florida | Wisconsin |
| Q1 S&P | 0.386 | 0.428 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.314 | 0.400 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.737 | 0.797 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.200 | 0.515 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.466 | 0.606 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.485 | 0.519 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.348 | 0.407 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Wisconsin by 21.6 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Wisconsin by 17 | ||
USF found a pretty good formula for sticking around: eliminate big plays and close things out on passing downs. Wisconsin was quite efficient for most of the game but would eventually stall and give the ball back to the Bulls. It worked pretty well for two to 2.5 quarters, at least.