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Study Hall: Wisconsin 27, USF 10

Tom Lynn

Wisconsin 27, South Florida 10

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.

Basics South Florida Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 38 75
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 90.3%
Avg Starting FP 24.5 30.0 29.8
Possessions 10 10
Scoring Opportunities*
2 8
Points Per Opportunity 5.00 3.38 4.72
Leverage Rate** 60.5% 68.0% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.467 0.550 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) South Florida Wisconsin
Total 10.3 28.2
Rushing 5.6 19.0
Passing 4.6 9.2
Success Rate (what's this?) South Florida Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
All (close) 40.0% 49.3% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 38.9% 46.9% 43.4%
Passing (close) 41.2% 55.6% 40.8%
Standard Downs 47.8% 56.9% 47.5%
Passing Downs 25.0% 25.0% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) South Florida Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.73 0.78 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.81 0.73 0.72
Passing (close) 0.66 0.90 0.99
Standard Downs 0.74 0.78 0.77
Passing Downs 0.70 0.81 1.13
Line Stats South Florida Wisconsin Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.11 3.39 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 10.0% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 16.7% 7.3%
Turnovers South Florida Wisconsin
Turnovers 2 1
Turnover Points (what's this?) 9.2 5.5
Turnover Margin Wisconsin +1
Exp. TO Margin Wisconsin +0.44
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) Wisconsin +0.56
TO Points Margin Wisconsin +3.7 points
Situational South Florida Wisconsin
Q1 S&P 0.386 0.428
Q2 S&P 0.314 0.400
Q3 S&P 0.737 0.797
Q4 S&P 0.200 0.515
1st Down S&P 0.466 0.606
2nd Down S&P 0.485 0.519
3rd Down S&P 0.348 0.407
Projected Scoring Margin: Wisconsin by 21.6
Actual Scoring Margin: Wisconsin by 17

USF found a pretty good formula for sticking around: eliminate big plays and close things out on passing downs. Wisconsin was quite efficient for most of the game but would eventually stall and give the ball back to the Bulls. It worked pretty well for two to 2.5 quarters, at least.