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Study Hall: UCLA 62, Arizona State 27

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

UCLA 62, Arizona State 27

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Basics Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Total Plays 105 58
Close Rate (non-garbage time) 68.1%
Avg Starting FP 21.2 31.2 29.8
Possessions 14 12
Scoring Opportunities*
8 8
Points Per Opportunity 3.38 6.00 4.72
Leverage Rate** 46.7% 51.7% 68.3%
Close S&P*** 0.527 0.654 0.507
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
EqPts (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA
Total 34.3 37.9
Rushing 5.4 13.6
Passing 28.9 24.3
Success Rate (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 49.3% 50.0% 42.1%
Rushing (close) 47.6% 59.1% 43.4%
Passing (close) 50.0% 40.9% 40.8%
Standard Downs 51.0% 63.3% 47.5%
Passing Downs 44.4% 21.4% 30.6%
IsoPPP (what's this?) Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
All (close) 0.66 1.27 0.85
Rushing (close) 0.32 0.62 0.72
Passing (close) 0.81 2.20 0.99
Standard Downs 0.69 1.35 0.77
Passing Downs 0.58 0.75 1.13
Line Stats Arizona State UCLA Nat'l Avg
Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) 3.80 3.00 2.90
Std. Downs Sack Rt. 3.1% 0.0% 4.5%
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. 0.0% 9.1% 7.3%
Turnovers Arizona State UCLA
Turnovers 4 0
Turnover Points (what's this?) 18.1 0.0
Turnover Margin UCLA +4
Exp. TO Margin UCLA +2.34
TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) UCLA +1.66
TO Points Margin UCLA +18.1 points
Situational Arizona State UCLA
Q1 S&P 0.569 0.438
Q2 S&P 0.557 0.728
Q3 S&P 0.526 0.885
Q4 S&P 0.405 0.675
1st Down S&P 0.711 0.542
2nd Down S&P 0.480 0.400
3rd Down S&P 0.760 0.574
Projected Scoring Margin: UCLA by 21.6
Actual Scoring Margin: UCLA by 35

As happens frequently, turnovers defined this game. Without them, UCLA still held an advantage despite a massive difference in total plays, but four ASU turnovers either took good field position away from the Sun Devils or created it for the Bruins. Throw in a kick return touchdown and the slight, inconvenient fact that only one of two teams was making big plays, and voila. Easy road win.