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Week 2 college football picks

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Kevin C. Cox

So last week, I went to battle with a new method of using F/+ ratings to use picks, and the old, tried-and-true method. Change is bad, I guess.

  • New: 37-38 (49.3%)
  • Old: 30-15 (66.7%)

Using the new method, I picked both FBS vs. FBS games and FBS vs. FCS games. The new method went 17-13 in FBS vs. FCS games, which is pretty good (57%). It also went 20-25 in FBS vs. FBS games. Less good. But ... wow, what a week for the old method. That's still the official method of record until further notice. Still, I'll give both. Just ignore the new for now; humor me.

New Method

Like I said, the new method is a more statistically sound method overall, but it's not built to thrive with the more conservative early-season F/+ ratings. So again, they're just experimental. The real picks are below these.

(And yes, I tweeted the Thursday night picks just to show I wasn't making them up after the fact.)

Date Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Chance of winning Pick
9/5/13 Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Florida Atlantic at East Carolina -20 East Carolina by 12.8 (34.2 - 21.4) 81.3% Florida Atlantic
9/5/13 Thu 10:00 PM Pac-12 Sacramento State at Arizona State -37 Arizona State by 23.5 (40.2 - 16.6) 96.2% Sacramento State
9/6/13 Fri 8:00 PM CBSSN UCF at FIU 24 UCF by 13.9 (34.8 - 20.9) 83.1% FIU
9/6/13 Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Wake Forest at Boston College -3 Boston College by 6.7 (28.7 - 22.0) 69.7% Boston College
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Bowling Green at Kent State 7.5 Bowling Green by 1.2 (27.3 - 26.2) 57.1% Kent State
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Cincinnati at Illinois 8 Cincinnati by 12.0 (32.4 - 20.5) 79.8% Cincinnati
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Kentucky at Louisville -40.5 Louisville by 22.4 (38.2 - 15.8) 95.0% Eastern Kentucky
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Eastern Michigan at Penn State -24 Penn State by 28.0 (41.6 - 13.6) 100.0% Penn State
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Florida at Miami-FL 3 Florida by 5.8 (28.5 - 22.7) 67.7% Florida
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Houston at Temple 3 Houston by 0.0 (28.5 - 28.5) 54.4% Temple
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Indiana State at Purdue -17 Purdue by 4.4 (28.3 - 23.9) 64.6% Indiana State
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Kentucky -17 Kentucky by 11.7 (33.9 - 22.2) 79.4% Miami-OH
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Missouri State at Iowa -24.5 Iowa by 14.3 (32.0 - 17.7) 83.7% Missouri State
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM CBSSN Norfolk State at Rutgers -40 Rutgers by 26.2 (35.3 - 9.2) 98.9% Norfolk State
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Oklahoma State at UTSA 27 Oklahoma State by 24.0 (43.3 - 19.3) 96.8% UTSA
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM SE Louisiana at TCU -43 TCU by 30.7 (40.7 - 10.0) 100.0% SE Louisiana
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU South Florida at Michigan State -23.5 Michigan State by 19.5 (36.2 - 16.7) 91.5% South Florida
9/7/13 Sat 12:00 PM BTN Tennessee Tech at Wisconsin -45 Wisconsin by 31.2 (40.9 - 9.6) 100.0% Tennessee Tech
9/7/13 Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network / ESPN3 Western Kentucky at Tennessee -14 Tennessee by 14.7 (35.3 - 20.6) 84.4% Tennessee
9/7/13 Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Middle Tennessee at North Carolina -18 North Carolina by 13.3 (37.3 - 24.0) 82.2% Middle Tennessee
9/7/13 Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 SC State at Clemson -52.5 Clemson by 32.3 (47.0 - 14.7) 100.0% SC State
9/7/13 Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Army at Ball State -7.5 Ball State by 11.1 (38.9 - 27.8) 78.2% Ball State
9/7/13 Sat 1:30 PM ESPN3 Western Carolina at Virginia Tech -42 Virginia Tech by 25.6 (39.3 - 13.7) 98.3% Western Carolina
9/7/13 Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Chattanooga at Georgia State 10 Chattanooga by 11.5 (32.5 - 21.0) 78.9% Chattanooga
9/7/13 Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Maine at Massachusetts 3 Maine by 10.9 (31.2 - 20.4) 77.8% Maine
9/7/13 Sat 2:00 PM Pac-12 Weber State at Utah -23 Utah by 17.8 (35.2 - 17.4) 89.0% Weber State
9/7/13 Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 New Hampshire at Central Michigan -3.5 New Hampshire by 0.6 (25.7 - 25.1) 55.7% New Hampshire
9/7/13 Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Tennessee-Martin at Boise State -35.5 Boise State by 20.2 (35.0 - 14.8) 92.4% Tennessee-Martin
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Alcorn State at Mississippi State -42.5 Mississippi State by 29.5 (38.6 - 9.1) 100.0% Alcorn State
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM Buffalo at Baylor -27.5 Baylor by 21.2 (43.1 - 22.0) 93.5% Buffalo
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Oregon at Virginia 23 Oregon by 23.5 (41.1 - 17.6) 96.2% Oregon
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 San Diego State at Ohio State -28 Ohio State by 18.2 (37.4 - 19.2) 89.7% San Diego State
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM South Alabama at Tulane -7 Tulane by 2.0 (27.2 - 25.1) 59.2% South Alabama
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Toledo at Missouri -17 Missouri by 14.0 (34.8 - 20.8) 83.3% Toledo
9/7/13 Sat 3:30 PM CBSSN Utah State at Air Force 10 Utah State by 8.8 (32.6 - 23.7) 73.9% Air Force
9/7/13 Sat 4:00 PM Idaho at Wyoming -28 Wyoming by 14.4 (35.0 - 20.6) 83.9% Idaho
9/7/13 Sat 4:00 PM ESPN News Old Dominion at Maryland -18.5 Maryland by 8.4 (28.4 - 20.1) 73.0% Old Dominion
9/7/13 Sat 4:30 PM ESPN3 Duke at Memphis 6 Duke by 4.4 (30.6 - 26.2) 64.7% Memphis
9/7/13 Sat 4:30 PM ESPN South Carolina at Georgia -3 Georgia by 4.0 (29.1 - 25.1) 63.8% Georgia
9/7/13 Sat 5:00 PM Pac-12 Portland State at California -28 California by 12.2 (32.6 - 20.4) 80.1% Portland State
9/7/13 Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 James Madison at Akron -3 James Madison by 7.6 (31.4 - 23.9) 71.4% James Madison
9/7/13 Sat 6:00 PM BTN Navy at Indiana -13 Indiana by 9.5 (36.6 - 27.1) 75.1% Navy
9/7/13 Sat 6:00 PM ESPN3 Richmond at NC State -23 NC State by 8.0 (31.8 - 23.8) 72.3% Richmond
9/7/13 Sat 6:00 PM BTN Southern Miss at Nebraska -28 Nebraska by 20.6 (38.3 - 17.7) 92.9% Southern Miss
9/7/13 Sat 6:00 PM BTN Syracuse at Northwestern -15.5 Northwestern by 8.4 (36.6 - 28.2) 73.1% Syracuse
9/7/13 Sat 6:30 PM Gardner-Webb at Marshall -42.5 Marshall by 22.1 (42.3 - 20.2) 94.7% Gardner-Webb
9/7/13 Sat 6:30 PM FS1 UL-Lafayette at Kansas State -10.5 Kansas State by 14.7 (34.9 - 20.1) 84.5% Kansas State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM CBSSN Colorado State at Tulsa -10 Tulsa by 14.9 (35.6 - 20.7) 84.7% Tulsa
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Grambling State at UL-Monroe -38.5 UL-Monroe by 26.2 (39.7 - 13.5) 98.9% Grambling State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM Lamar at Louisiana Tech -28 Louisiana Tech by 22.1 (41.5 - 19.4) 94.7% Lamar
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Nicholls State at Western Michigan -26.5 Western Michigan by 18.1 (35.7 - 17.6) 89.5% Nicholls State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 North Texas at Ohio -4.5 Ohio by 3.7 (31.1 - 27.4) 63.0% North Texas
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Prairie View A&M at Texas State -31 Texas State by 19.6 (34.6 - 15.0) 91.5% Prairie View A&M
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Sam Houston State at Texas A&M -41 Texas A&M by 23.4 (39.9 - 16.5) 96.1% Sam Houston State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Samford at Arkansas -32.5 Arkansas by 13.4 (32.5 - 19.2) 82.2% Samford
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Savannah State at Troy -49.5 Troy by 25.4 (40.7 - 15.3) 98.2% Savannah State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 SE Missouri State at Ole Miss -50 Ole Miss by 26.8 (41.3 - 14.5) 99.4% SE Missouri State
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 South Dakota at Kansas -23.5 Kansas by 2.0 (29.6 - 27.6) 59.1% South Dakota
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech -38 Texas Tech by 19.5 (38.7 - 19.2) 91.5% Stephen F. Austin
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Texas at BYU 7 Texas by 4.7 (30.0 - 25.2) 65.4% BYU
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU UAB at LSU -35 LSU by 29.9 (42.3 - 12.3) 100.0% UAB
9/7/13 Sat 7:00 PM Fox West Virginia at Oklahoma -21 Oklahoma by 15.9 (39.3 - 23.4) 86.3% West Virginia
9/7/13 Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Auburn -13 Arkansas State by 0.7 (27.3 - 26.6) 56.0% Arkansas State
9/7/13 Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Austin Peay at Vanderbilt -47.5 Vanderbilt by 27.5 (38.2 - 10.7) 100.0% Austin Peay
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Colorado -14 Central Arkansas by 2.6 (27.5 - 25.0) 60.5% Central Arkansas
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Hawaii at Oregon State -27 Oregon State by 25.9 (39.9 - 14.0) 98.6% Hawaii
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM Minnesota at New Mexico State 15.5 Minnesota by 10.8 (31.2 - 20.4) 77.7% New Mexico State
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 Montana State at SMU -10 SMU by 4.9 (28.3 - 23.4) 65.7% Montana State
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM New Mexico at UTEP -6 UTEP by 9.1 (32.7 - 23.6) 74.4% UTEP
9/7/13 Sat 8:00 PM ESPN Notre Dame at Michigan -4 Notre Dame by 1.1 (26.8 - 25.7) 56.9% Notre Dame
9/7/13 Sat 9:05 PM UC Davis at Nevada -18 Nevada by 10.3 (38.4 - 28.1) 76.8% UC Davis
9/7/13 Sat 10:00 PM ESPN3 Cal Poly-SLO at Fresno State -28 Fresno State by 12.4 (32.8 - 20.4) 80.5% Cal Poly-SLO
9/7/13 Sat 10:30 PM CBSSN Arizona at UNLV 10.5 Arizona by 16.8 (39.9 - 23.1) 87.7% Arizona
9/7/13 Sat 10:30 PM FS1 Washington State at USC -15 USC by 25.3 (38.8 - 13.5) 98.1% USC
9/7/13 Sat 11:00 PM Pac-12 San Jose State at Stanford -26.5 Stanford by 21.1 (35.2 - 14.1) 93.5% San Jose State

Old Method

And here are the F/+ picks done the way I've always done them. You know, the way that got two-thirds correct last week.

Day Time (ET) Game Spread Prediction Pick
Different
than above?
Thu 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic at East Carolina -20 East Carolina by 16.1 Florida Atlantic
Fri 8:00 PM Central Florida at FIU 24 UCF by 20.1 FIU
Fri 8:00 PM Wake Forest at Boston College -3 Boston College by 8.3 Boston College
Sat 12:00 PM Bowling Green at Kent State 7.5 Bowling Green by 2.7 Kent State
Sat 12:00 PM Cincinnati at Illinois 8 Cincinnati by 18.1 Cincinnati
Sat 12:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Penn State -24 Penn State by 36.3 Penn State
Sat 12:00 PM Florida at Miami-FL 3 Florida by 9.5 Florida
Sat 12:00 PM Houston at Temple 3 Houston by 1.2 Temple
Sat 12:00 PM Miami-OH at Kentucky -17 Kentucky by 15.5 Miami-OH
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma State at UTSA 27 Oklahoma State by 32.2 Oklahoma State XXX
Sat 12:00 PM South Florida at Michigan State -23.5 Michigan State by 24.7 Michigan State XXX
Sat 12:21 PM Western Kentucky at Tennessee -14 Tennessee by 18.9 Tennessee
Sat 12:30 PM Middle Tennessee at North Carolina -18 North Carolina by 16.5 Middle Tennessee
Sat 1:00 PM Army at Ball State -7.5 Ball State by 12.3 Ball State
Sat 3:30 PM Buffalo at Baylor -27.5 Baylor by 24.6 Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM Oregon at Virginia 23 Oregon by 29.5 Oregon
Sat 3:30 PM San Diego State at Ohio State -28 Ohio State by 23.2 San Diego State
Sat 3:30 PM South Alabama at Tulane -7 Tulane by 1.7 South Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM Toledo at Missouri -17 Missouri by 17.0 Missouri XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Utah State at Air Force 10 Utah State by 12.5 Utah State XXX
Sat 4:00 PM Idaho at Wyoming -28 Wyoming by 18.9 Idaho
Sat 4:00 PM Old Dominion at Maryland -18.5 Maryland by 10.4 Old Dominion
Sat 4:30 PM Duke at Memphis 6 Duke by 7.1 Duke XXX
Sat 4:30 PM South Carolina at Georgia -3 Georgia by 4.6 Georgia
Sat 6:00 PM Navy at Indiana -13 Indiana by 11.4 Navy
Sat 6:00 PM Southern Miss at Nebraska -28 Nebraska by 26.2 Southern Miss
Sat 6:00 PM Syracuse at Northwestern -15.5 Northwestern by 9.1 Syracuse
Sat 6:30 PM UL-Lafayette at Kansas State -10.5 Kansas State by 19.7 Kansas State
Sat 7:00 PM Colorado State at Tulsa -10 Tulsa by 18.1 Tulsa
Sat 7:00 PM North Texas at Ohio -4.5 Ohio by 3.5 North Texas
Sat 7:00 PM Texas at BYU 7 Texas by 7.3 Texas XXX
Sat 7:00 PM UAB at LSU -35 LSU by 38.7 LSU XXX
Sat 7:00 PM West Virginia at Oklahoma -21 Oklahoma by 19.4 West Virginia
Sat 7:30 PM Arkansas State at Auburn -13 Arkansas State by 2.1 Arkansas State
Sat 8:00 PM Hawaii at Oregon State -27 Oregon State by 33.5 Oregon State XXX
Sat 8:00 PM Minnesota at New Mexico State 15.5 Minnesota by 16.7 Minnesota XXX
Sat 8:00 PM New Mexico at UTEP -6 UTEP by 11.3 UTEP
Sat 8:00 PM Notre Dame at Michigan -4 Notre Dame by 2.7 Notre Dame
Sat 10:30 PM Arizona at UNLV 10.5 Arizona by 21.9 Arizona
Sat 10:30 PM Washington State at USC -15 USC by 34.7 USC
Sat 11:00 PM San Jose State at Stanford -26.5 Stanford by 27.7 Stanford XXX