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So last week, I went to battle with a new method of using F/+ ratings to use picks, and the old, tried-and-true method. Change is bad, I guess.
- New: 37-38 (49.3%)
- Old: 30-15 (66.7%)
Using the new method, I picked both FBS vs. FBS games and FBS vs. FCS games. The new method went 17-13 in FBS vs. FCS games, which is pretty good (57%). It also went 20-25 in FBS vs. FBS games. Less good. But ... wow, what a week for the old method. That's still the official method of record until further notice. Still, I'll give both. Just ignore the new for now; humor me.
New Method
Like I said, the new method is a more statistically sound method overall, but it's not built to thrive with the more conservative early-season F/+ ratings. So again, they're just experimental. The real picks are below these.
(And yes, I tweeted the Thursday night picks just to show I wasn't making them up after the fact.)
| Date | Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| 9/5/13 | Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | -20 | East Carolina by 12.8 (34.2 - 21.4) | 81.3% | Florida Atlantic |
| 9/5/13 | Thu | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Sacramento State at Arizona State | -37 | Arizona State by 23.5 (40.2 - 16.6) | 96.2% | Sacramento State |
| 9/6/13 | Fri | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | UCF at FIU | 24 | UCF by 13.9 (34.8 - 20.9) | 83.1% | FIU |
| 9/6/13 | Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Wake Forest at Boston College | -3 | Boston College by 6.7 (28.7 - 22.0) | 69.7% | Boston College |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Kent State | 7.5 | Bowling Green by 1.2 (27.3 - 26.2) | 57.1% | Kent State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Cincinnati at Illinois | 8 | Cincinnati by 12.0 (32.4 - 20.5) | 79.8% | Cincinnati |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Kentucky at Louisville | -40.5 | Louisville by 22.4 (38.2 - 15.8) | 95.0% | Eastern Kentucky |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Eastern Michigan at Penn State | -24 | Penn State by 28.0 (41.6 - 13.6) | 100.0% | Penn State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Florida at Miami-FL | 3 | Florida by 5.8 (28.5 - 22.7) | 67.7% | Florida |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Houston at Temple | 3 | Houston by 0.0 (28.5 - 28.5) | 54.4% | Temple |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Indiana State at Purdue | -17 | Purdue by 4.4 (28.3 - 23.9) | 64.6% | Indiana State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Miami-OH at Kentucky | -17 | Kentucky by 11.7 (33.9 - 22.2) | 79.4% | Miami-OH |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Missouri State at Iowa | -24.5 | Iowa by 14.3 (32.0 - 17.7) | 83.7% | Missouri State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Norfolk State at Rutgers | -40 | Rutgers by 26.2 (35.3 - 9.2) | 98.9% | Norfolk State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma State at UTSA | 27 | Oklahoma State by 24.0 (43.3 - 19.3) | 96.8% | UTSA |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | SE Louisiana at TCU | -43 | TCU by 30.7 (40.7 - 10.0) | 100.0% | SE Louisiana | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | South Florida at Michigan State | -23.5 | Michigan State by 19.5 (36.2 - 16.7) | 91.5% | South Florida |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Tennessee Tech at Wisconsin | -45 | Wisconsin by 31.2 (40.9 - 9.6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Tech |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network / ESPN3 | Western Kentucky at Tennessee | -14 | Tennessee by 14.7 (35.3 - 20.6) | 84.4% | Tennessee |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Middle Tennessee at North Carolina | -18 | North Carolina by 13.3 (37.3 - 24.0) | 82.2% | Middle Tennessee |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | SC State at Clemson | -52.5 | Clemson by 32.3 (47.0 - 14.7) | 100.0% | SC State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Army at Ball State | -7.5 | Ball State by 11.1 (38.9 - 27.8) | 78.2% | Ball State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 1:30 PM | ESPN3 | Western Carolina at Virginia Tech | -42 | Virginia Tech by 25.6 (39.3 - 13.7) | 98.3% | Western Carolina |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Chattanooga at Georgia State | 10 | Chattanooga by 11.5 (32.5 - 21.0) | 78.9% | Chattanooga |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Maine at Massachusetts | 3 | Maine by 10.9 (31.2 - 20.4) | 77.8% | Maine |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Weber State at Utah | -23 | Utah by 17.8 (35.2 - 17.4) | 89.0% | Weber State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | New Hampshire at Central Michigan | -3.5 | New Hampshire by 0.6 (25.7 - 25.1) | 55.7% | New Hampshire |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Tennessee-Martin at Boise State | -35.5 | Boise State by 20.2 (35.0 - 14.8) | 92.4% | Tennessee-Martin |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Alcorn State at Mississippi State | -42.5 | Mississippi State by 29.5 (38.6 - 9.1) | 100.0% | Alcorn State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | Buffalo at Baylor | -27.5 | Baylor by 21.2 (43.1 - 22.0) | 93.5% | Buffalo | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Oregon at Virginia | 23 | Oregon by 23.5 (41.1 - 17.6) | 96.2% | Oregon |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | San Diego State at Ohio State | -28 | Ohio State by 18.2 (37.4 - 19.2) | 89.7% | San Diego State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | South Alabama at Tulane | -7 | Tulane by 2.0 (27.2 - 25.1) | 59.2% | South Alabama | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Toledo at Missouri | -17 | Missouri by 14.0 (34.8 - 20.8) | 83.3% | Toledo |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Utah State at Air Force | 10 | Utah State by 8.8 (32.6 - 23.7) | 73.9% | Air Force |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 4:00 PM | Idaho at Wyoming | -28 | Wyoming by 14.4 (35.0 - 20.6) | 83.9% | Idaho | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | Old Dominion at Maryland | -18.5 | Maryland by 8.4 (28.4 - 20.1) | 73.0% | Old Dominion |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 4:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Memphis | 6 | Duke by 4.4 (30.6 - 26.2) | 64.7% | Memphis |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 4:30 PM | ESPN | South Carolina at Georgia | -3 | Georgia by 4.0 (29.1 - 25.1) | 63.8% | Georgia |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 5:00 PM | Pac-12 | Portland State at California | -28 | California by 12.2 (32.6 - 20.4) | 80.1% | Portland State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | James Madison at Akron | -3 | James Madison by 7.6 (31.4 - 23.9) | 71.4% | James Madison |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:00 PM | BTN | Navy at Indiana | -13 | Indiana by 9.5 (36.6 - 27.1) | 75.1% | Navy |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Richmond at NC State | -23 | NC State by 8.0 (31.8 - 23.8) | 72.3% | Richmond |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:00 PM | BTN | Southern Miss at Nebraska | -28 | Nebraska by 20.6 (38.3 - 17.7) | 92.9% | Southern Miss |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:00 PM | BTN | Syracuse at Northwestern | -15.5 | Northwestern by 8.4 (36.6 - 28.2) | 73.1% | Syracuse |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:30 PM | Gardner-Webb at Marshall | -42.5 | Marshall by 22.1 (42.3 - 20.2) | 94.7% | Gardner-Webb | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 6:30 PM | FS1 | UL-Lafayette at Kansas State | -10.5 | Kansas State by 14.7 (34.9 - 20.1) | 84.5% | Kansas State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at Tulsa | -10 | Tulsa by 14.9 (35.6 - 20.7) | 84.7% | Tulsa |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Grambling State at UL-Monroe | -38.5 | UL-Monroe by 26.2 (39.7 - 13.5) | 98.9% | Grambling State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | Lamar at Louisiana Tech | -28 | Louisiana Tech by 22.1 (41.5 - 19.4) | 94.7% | Lamar | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Nicholls State at Western Michigan | -26.5 | Western Michigan by 18.1 (35.7 - 17.6) | 89.5% | Nicholls State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | North Texas at Ohio | -4.5 | Ohio by 3.7 (31.1 - 27.4) | 63.0% | North Texas |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Prairie View A&M at Texas State | -31 | Texas State by 19.6 (34.6 - 15.0) | 91.5% | Prairie View A&M |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Sam Houston State at Texas A&M | -41 | Texas A&M by 23.4 (39.9 - 16.5) | 96.1% | Sam Houston State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Samford at Arkansas | -32.5 | Arkansas by 13.4 (32.5 - 19.2) | 82.2% | Samford |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Savannah State at Troy | -49.5 | Troy by 25.4 (40.7 - 15.3) | 98.2% | Savannah State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | SE Missouri State at Ole Miss | -50 | Ole Miss by 26.8 (41.3 - 14.5) | 99.4% | SE Missouri State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | South Dakota at Kansas | -23.5 | Kansas by 2.0 (29.6 - 27.6) | 59.1% | South Dakota |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech | -38 | Texas Tech by 19.5 (38.7 - 19.2) | 91.5% | Stephen F. Austin | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Texas at BYU | 7 | Texas by 4.7 (30.0 - 25.2) | 65.4% | BYU |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | UAB at LSU | -35 | LSU by 29.9 (42.3 - 12.3) | 100.0% | UAB |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | West Virginia at Oklahoma | -21 | Oklahoma by 15.9 (39.3 - 23.4) | 86.3% | West Virginia |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Auburn | -13 | Arkansas State by 0.7 (27.3 - 26.6) | 56.0% | Arkansas State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Austin Peay at Vanderbilt | -47.5 | Vanderbilt by 27.5 (38.2 - 10.7) | 100.0% | Austin Peay |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | Central Arkansas at Colorado | -14 | Central Arkansas by 2.6 (27.5 - 25.0) | 60.5% | Central Arkansas | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Hawaii at Oregon State | -27 | Oregon State by 25.9 (39.9 - 14.0) | 98.6% | Hawaii |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | Minnesota at New Mexico State | 15.5 | Minnesota by 10.8 (31.2 - 20.4) | 77.7% | New Mexico State | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Montana State at SMU | -10 | SMU by 4.9 (28.3 - 23.4) | 65.7% | Montana State |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | New Mexico at UTEP | -6 | UTEP by 9.1 (32.7 - 23.6) | 74.4% | UTEP | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Notre Dame at Michigan | -4 | Notre Dame by 1.1 (26.8 - 25.7) | 56.9% | Notre Dame |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 9:05 PM | UC Davis at Nevada | -18 | Nevada by 10.3 (38.4 - 28.1) | 76.8% | UC Davis | |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 10:00 PM | ESPN3 | Cal Poly-SLO at Fresno State | -28 | Fresno State by 12.4 (32.8 - 20.4) | 80.5% | Cal Poly-SLO |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Arizona at UNLV | 10.5 | Arizona by 16.8 (39.9 - 23.1) | 87.7% | Arizona |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 10:30 PM | FS1 | Washington State at USC | -15 | USC by 25.3 (38.8 - 13.5) | 98.1% | USC |
| 9/7/13 | Sat | 11:00 PM | Pac-12 | San Jose State at Stanford | -26.5 | Stanford by 21.1 (35.2 - 14.1) | 93.5% | San Jose State |
Old Method
And here are the F/+ picks done the way I've always done them. You know, the way that got two-thirds correct last week.
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | Prediction | Pick |
Different
than above?
|
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | -20 | East Carolina by 16.1 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Central Florida at FIU | 24 | UCF by 20.1 | FIU | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Wake Forest at Boston College | -3 | Boston College by 8.3 | Boston College | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Bowling Green at Kent State | 7.5 | Bowling Green by 2.7 | Kent State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Cincinnati at Illinois | 8 | Cincinnati by 18.1 | Cincinnati | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Penn State | -24 | Penn State by 36.3 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Florida at Miami-FL | 3 | Florida by 9.5 | Florida | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Houston at Temple | 3 | Houston by 1.2 | Temple | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Miami-OH at Kentucky | -17 | Kentucky by 15.5 | Miami-OH | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma State at UTSA | 27 | Oklahoma State by 32.2 | Oklahoma State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | South Florida at Michigan State | -23.5 | Michigan State by 24.7 | Michigan State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Western Kentucky at Tennessee | -14 | Tennessee by 18.9 | Tennessee | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Middle Tennessee at North Carolina | -18 | North Carolina by 16.5 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Army at Ball State | -7.5 | Ball State by 12.3 | Ball State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Buffalo at Baylor | -27.5 | Baylor by 24.6 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Oregon at Virginia | 23 | Oregon by 29.5 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | San Diego State at Ohio State | -28 | Ohio State by 23.2 | San Diego State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | South Alabama at Tulane | -7 | Tulane by 1.7 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Toledo at Missouri | -17 | Missouri by 17.0 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Utah State at Air Force | 10 | Utah State by 12.5 | Utah State | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Idaho at Wyoming | -28 | Wyoming by 18.9 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Old Dominion at Maryland | -18.5 | Maryland by 10.4 | Old Dominion | |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | Duke at Memphis | 6 | Duke by 7.1 | Duke | XXX |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | South Carolina at Georgia | -3 | Georgia by 4.6 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Navy at Indiana | -13 | Indiana by 11.4 | Navy | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Southern Miss at Nebraska | -28 | Nebraska by 26.2 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Syracuse at Northwestern | -15.5 | Northwestern by 9.1 | Syracuse | |
| Sat | 6:30 PM | UL-Lafayette at Kansas State | -10.5 | Kansas State by 19.7 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Colorado State at Tulsa | -10 | Tulsa by 18.1 | Tulsa | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | North Texas at Ohio | -4.5 | Ohio by 3.5 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Texas at BYU | 7 | Texas by 7.3 | Texas | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | UAB at LSU | -35 | LSU by 38.7 | LSU | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | West Virginia at Oklahoma | -21 | Oklahoma by 19.4 | West Virginia | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Arkansas State at Auburn | -13 | Arkansas State by 2.1 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Hawaii at Oregon State | -27 | Oregon State by 33.5 | Oregon State | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Minnesota at New Mexico State | 15.5 | Minnesota by 16.7 | Minnesota | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | New Mexico at UTEP | -6 | UTEP by 11.3 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Notre Dame at Michigan | -4 | Notre Dame by 2.7 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Arizona at UNLV | 10.5 | Arizona by 21.9 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Washington State at USC | -15 | USC by 34.7 | USC | |
| Sat | 11:00 PM | San Jose State at Stanford | -26.5 | Stanford by 27.7 | Stanford | XXX |
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