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Study Hall: Florida State 41, Pittsburgh 13

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I'm always running a bit behind in the first week, but even though it's Wednesday, let's crank through some advanced box scores, huh?

Justin K. Aller

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

Florida State 41, Pittsburgh 13

FSU Pittsburgh FSU Pittsburgh
Close % 77.1% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 58.7% 43.6% Success Rate 75.7% 44.4%
Leverage % 80.4% 60.0% PPP 0.93 0.32
S&P 1.687 0.764
EqPts 50.7 26.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 69.6% 42.2% Success Rate 44.4% 38.9%
Close PPP 0.92 0.46 PPP 0.90 0.67
Close S&P 1.620 0.881 S&P 1.344 1.056
EqPts 16.6 11.3 Number 0 2
Close Success Rate 63.6% 39.1% Turnover Pts 0.0 8.2
Close PPP 0.62 0.46 Turnover Pts Margin +8.2 -8.2
Close S&P 1.260 0.856
Line Yards/carry 4.25 3.45 Q1 S&P 1.517 0.990
Q2 S&P 1.721 0.909
PASSING Q3 S&P 1.563 0.698
EqPts 34.1 15.4 Q4 S&P 0.895 0.906
Close Success Rate 75.0% 45.5%
Close PPP 1.20 0.45 1st Down S&P 1.614 0.734
Close S&P 1.949 0.906 2nd Down S&P 1.115 1.189
SD/PD Sack Rate 5.6% / 16.7% 9.1% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 1.388 0.726
Projected Pt. Margin: Florida State +32.2 | Actual Pt. Margin: Florida State +28

Three Thoughts

  1. Perhaps lost amid the justifiable Jameis Winston hype was that Pitt was able to succeed via both run and pass on the offensive side of the ball. The game was completely redefined by Tom Savage's two wretched interceptions (Savage didn't seem to stand for mediocrity -- he was either great or terrible on most reads and throws) but Pitt showed average efficiency (national success rate average after one week: 42.3%) against a well above average defense. I have enough faith in Paul Chryst to suggest that Pitt was responsible for a good portion of its success, and that there isn't necessarily much to worry about regarding FSU just yet. But a 46 percent success rate in the air is certainly above average, as is a 3.45 line yardage average.

  2. But yeah, the story was Winston. A 75 percent success rate throwing the ball? Seriously? The sack rates were high, especially considering Pitt was getting a hand in Winston's face at other times, too, but yeah, even against a Division II defense, those passing numbers would be outstanding.

  3. I guess if we're really nit-picking, we could point out that a 44 percent success rate on passing downs could stand to be higher (considering the success rates on standard downs), but when only one of every five plays is a passing down, that's a minimal concern. And considering the national average after one week is 33 percent on such downs, this is a really, really tiny nit to pick.