:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/18919719/20130831_pjc_bb4_112.0.jpg)
Week One Recap
Week One of the college football season is in the bag. Overall, the HuskerMath model performed well, correctly predicting 79% of FBS games. One of the big stories of opening weekend was the number of FCS teams that beat FBS teams, and this showed in the model. The model's methodology essentially hand-waves FCS teams away...a process that is obviously not quite ready for prime time and will have to be fixed before next season. If games involving FCS teams are not included the prediction accuracy for the weekend jumps to 82%.
In the chart below, the most closely matched teams had the smallest difference in P(win). The FCS "upsets" are all in the bottom row.
| Difference in P(win) | Week 1 (FCS) | Week 1 (no FCS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 - 0.1 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 0.1 - 0.2 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| 0.2 - 0.3 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| 0.3 - 0.4 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| 0.4 - 0.5 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| 0.5 - 0.6 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 0.6 - 0.7 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| 0.7 - 0.8 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 0.8 - 0.9 | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| 0.9 - 1.0 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Overall % Correct | 0.79 | 0.82 |
Week 2 Season Expected Win Predictions
This is a good point to remind everyone that:
(1) Teams that played quality opponents (Georgia, Alabama, etc) vice those who played cupcakes and put up gawdy stats will see Exp. Win numbers reflect this. I expect this effect to even out by Week 4 or 5 when most every team will have played a more evenly distributed schedule in terms of challenges.
(2) The model is basing 2013 predictions on one game. This accounts for 50% of the model. Residual 2012 data is used for the other 50%. Week 3 will be the same. Week 4 will be 75% 2013 data and 25% 2012 data. Week 5 predictions will be based solely on 2013 data.
(3) Not all teams have played a game yet. Most notable among this group is Stanford.
The first table is sorted on Week 2 Expected Season Wins. The second table is sorted on % Change in Season Expected Wins since Week 2.
| Team | Week 1 Exp. Wins | Week 2 Exp. Wins | % change from prior week | Team | Week 1 Exp. Wins | Week 2 Exp. Wins | % change from prior week | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 9.3 | 9.4 | 1% | Colorado | 2.5 | 4.8 | 93% | |
| Florida State | 9.6 | 9.3 | -4% | Tulane | 3.7 | 5.9 | 58% | |
| Alabama | 10.0 | 9.3 | -7% | Eastern Michigan | 3.7 | 5.4 | 45% | |
| Georgia Tech | 6.7 | 8.6 | 29% | New Mexico State | 3.9 | 5.3 | 36% | |
| Arkansas State | 8.3 | 8.5 | 3% | Wake Forest | 4.3 | 5.8 | 35% | |
| Texas A&M | 8.7 | 8.5 | -3% | Duke | 5.5 | 7.4 | 34% | |
| Michigan State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 14% | Massachusetts | 2.6 | 3.5 | 33% | |
| Cincinnati | 8.3 | 8.4 | 1% | Maryland | 5.5 | 7.3 | 33% | |
| Wisconsin | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4% | Houston | 5.2 | 6.9 | 32% | |
| Oklahoma State | 7.5 | 8.3 | 12% | Georgia Tech | 6.7 | 8.6 | 29% | |
| Bowling Green | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7% | Arkansas | 5.0 | 6.5 | 29% | |
| Baylor | 6.7 | 8.2 | 22% | Auburn | 4.9 | 6.3 | 28% | |
| Louisville | 7.4 | 8.2 | 10% | Idaho | 2.7 | 3.4 | 27% | |
| USC | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4% | Tennessee | 5.4 | 6.9 | 27% | |
| Ohio State | 7.9 | 8.1 | 2% | Marshall | 5.6 | 7.1 | 27% | |
| Northern Illinois | 8.8 | 8.0 | -9% | Army | 5.3 | 6.6 | 25% | |
| San Jose State | 8.3 | 8.0 | -3% | Missouri | 5.6 | 6.9 | 23% | |
| Florida | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0% | Baylor | 6.7 | 8.2 | 22% | |
| Oklahoma | 7.3 | 8.0 | 9% | Air Force | 6.0 | 7.2 | 20% | |
| Rutgers | 7.7 | 7.8 | 2% | Minnesota | 5.5 | 6.5 | 18% | |
| UCF | 7.6 | 7.8 | 3% | Illinois | 4.4 | 5.2 | 18% | |
| South Carolina | 8.3 | 7.8 | -6% | Hawaii | 3.4 | 4.0 | 17% | |
| Notre Dame | 7.9 | 7.7 | -3% | Rice | 5.9 | 6.9 | 16% | |
| North Carolina State | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3% | Texas State | 6.0 | 7.0 | 16% | |
| Texas | 6.6 | 7.6 | 15% | Indiana | 5.8 | 6.7 | 16% | |
| LSU | 7.8 | 7.6 | -2% | North Texas | 6.4 | 7.3 | 15% | |
| Northwestern | 7.8 | 7.5 | -3% | Miami (Florida) | 6.0 | 6.9 | 15% | |
| Arizona State | 8.2 | 7.5 | -8% | Central Michigan | 5.7 | 6.5 | 15% | |
| Kent State | 6.8 | 7.5 | 11% | Texas | 6.6 | 7.6 | 15% | |
| Fresno State | 8.4 | 7.4 | -12% | Virginia | 5.7 | 6.5 | 15% | |
| Nebraska | 7.6 | 7.4 | -2% | Michigan State | 7.4 | 8.5 | 14% | |
| Washington | 6.7 | 7.4 | 11% | Georgia State | 3.8 | 4.3 | 14% | |
| Duke | 5.5 | 7.4 | 34% | Arizona | 6.3 | 7.0 | 13% | |
| Maryland | 5.5 | 7.3 | 33% | Boston College | 5.2 | 5.9 | 12% | |
| North Texas | 6.4 | 7.3 | 15% | Oklahoma State | 7.5 | 8.3 | 12% | |
| UCLA | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7% | Southern Mississippi | 3.8 | 4.2 | 12% | |
| Clemson | 8.0 | 7.2 | -10% | Kent State | 6.8 | 7.5 | 11% | |
| Air Force | 6.0 | 7.2 | 20% | Texas Tech | 6.3 | 7.1 | 11% | |
| Marshall | 5.6 | 7.1 | 27% | Washington | 6.7 | 7.4 | 11% | |
| Middle Tennessee | 6.5 | 7.1 | 10% | Utah | 5.9 | 6.5 | 11% | |
| Michigan | 7.2 | 7.1 | -2% | UTSA | 5.8 | 6.4 | 10% | |
| Utah State | 8.8 | 7.1 | -20% | Louisville | 7.4 | 8.2 | 10% | |
| Western Kentucky | 7.1 | 7.1 | -1% | Middle Tennessee | 6.5 | 7.1 | 10% | |
| Texas Tech | 6.3 | 7.1 | 11% | Oklahoma | 7.3 | 8.0 | 9% | |
| Arizona | 6.3 | 7.0 | 13% | Nevada | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8% | |
| Stanford | 7.3 | 7.0 | -4% | UCLA | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7% | |
| Mississippi | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7% | Bowling Green | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7% | |
| Penn State | 7.8 | 7.0 | -10% | Mississippi | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7% | |
| Texas State | 6.0 | 7.0 | 16% | East Carolina | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5% | |
| Miami (Florida) | 6.0 | 6.9 | 15% | Wisconsin | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4% | |
| Missouri | 5.6 | 6.9 | 23% | Buffalo | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4% | |
| Tennessee | 5.4 | 6.9 | 27% | USC | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4% | |
| Houston | 5.2 | 6.9 | 32% | North Carolina State | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3% | |
| Rice | 5.9 | 6.9 | 16% | Arkansas State | 8.3 | 8.5 | 3% | |
| East Carolina | 6.4 | 6.8 | 5% | UCF | 7.6 | 7.8 | 3% | |
| Indiana | 5.8 | 6.7 | 16% | Rutgers | 7.7 | 7.8 | 2% | |
| Army | 5.3 | 6.6 | 25% | Ohio State | 7.9 | 8.1 | 2% | |
| Ball State | 6.6 | 6.6 | -1% | Troy | 6.0 | 6.1 | 2% | |
| Utah | 5.9 | 6.5 | 11% | Cincinnati | 8.3 | 8.4 | 1% | |
| Minnesota | 5.5 | 6.5 | 18% | UAB | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1% | |
| Central Michigan | 5.7 | 6.5 | 15% | Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1% | |
| Virginia | 5.7 | 6.5 | 15% | Oregon | 9.3 | 9.4 | 1% | |
| Nevada | 6.0 | 6.5 | 8% | New Mexico | 5.3 | 5.3 | 0% | |
| Kansas State | 8.5 | 6.5 | -24% | South Florida | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0% | |
| Arkansas | 5.0 | 6.5 | 29% | Florida | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0% | |
| North Carolina | 7.7 | 6.4 | -18% | Kentucky | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0% | |
| UTSA | 5.8 | 6.4 | 10% | Akron | 4.9 | 4.8 | 0% | |
| Auburn | 4.9 | 6.3 | 28% | Ball State | 6.6 | 6.6 | -1% | |
| Vanderbilt | 8.2 | 6.2 | -24% | Western Kentucky | 7.1 | 7.1 | -1% | |
| BYU | 7.6 | 6.2 | -19% | Michigan | 7.2 | 7.1 | -2% | |
| Troy | 6.0 | 6.1 | 2% | Washington State | 4.5 | 4.5 | -2% | |
| Mississippi State | 7.5 | 6.1 | -18% | South Alabama | 5.1 | 5.0 | -2% | |
| Georgia | 8.1 | 6.1 | -25% | LSU | 7.8 | 7.6 | -2% | |
| West Virginia | 6.3 | 6.0 | -5% | Nebraska | 7.6 | 7.4 | -2% | |
| Tulane | 3.7 | 5.9 | 58% | Notre Dame | 7.9 | 7.7 | -3% | |
| Boston College | 5.2 | 5.9 | 12% | Texas A&M | 8.7 | 8.5 | -3% | |
| Western Michigan | 6.6 | 5.8 | -12% | Kansas | 4.0 | 3.9 | -3% | |
| Wake Forest | 4.3 | 5.8 | 35% | Northwestern | 7.8 | 7.5 | -3% | |
| Boise State | 8.2 | 5.8 | -30% | San Jose State | 8.3 | 8.0 | -3% | |
| Syracuse | 6.8 | 5.7 | -16% | Florida State | 9.6 | 9.3 | -4% | |
| Ohio | 8.0 | 5.7 | -29% | Stanford | 7.3 | 7.0 | -4% | |
| Toledo | 6.5 | 5.7 | -13% | West Virginia | 6.3 | 6.0 | -5% | |
| South Florida | 5.6 | 5.6 | 0% | South Carolina | 8.3 | 7.8 | -6% | |
| TCU | 6.9 | 5.6 | -19% | Colorado State | 5.6 | 5.2 | -6% | |
| Navy | 6.2 | 5.6 | -10% | Memphis | 5.5 | 5.2 | -7% | |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7.2 | 5.5 | -23% | Alabama | 10.0 | 9.3 | -7% | |
| Louisiana Tech | 7.3 | 5.5 | -24% | Purdue | 5.2 | 4.7 | -8% | |
| Oregon State | 7.4 | 5.5 | -25% | Arizona State | 8.2 | 7.5 | -8% | |
| Buffalo | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4% | Northern Illinois | 8.8 | 8.0 | -9% | |
| Tulsa | 7.7 | 5.5 | -29% | Iowa | 5.9 | 5.3 | -9% | |
| Wyoming | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1% | Clemson | 8.0 | 7.2 | -10% | |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 7.2 | 5.4 | -25% | Temple | 5.5 | 4.9 | -10% | |
| Virginia Tech | 6.9 | 5.4 | -22% | Navy | 6.2 | 5.6 | -10% | |
| Eastern Michigan | 3.7 | 5.4 | 45% | Penn State | 7.8 | 7.0 | -10% | |
| Iowa | 5.9 | 5.3 | -9% | UNLV | 4.7 | 4.2 | -10% | |
| New Mexico State | 3.9 | 5.3 | 36% | Fresno State | 8.4 | 7.4 | -12% | |
| New Mexico | 5.3 | 5.3 | 0% | Western Michigan | 6.6 | 5.8 | -12% | |
| Colorado State | 5.6 | 5.2 | -6% | Toledo | 6.5 | 5.7 | -13% | |
| Illinois | 4.4 | 5.2 | 18% | UTEP | 4.8 | 4.2 | -13% | |
| Memphis | 5.5 | 5.2 | -7% | California | 4.9 | 4.3 | -13% | |
| San Diego State | 7.3 | 5.2 | -29% | Syracuse | 6.8 | 5.7 | -16% | |
| Pittsburgh | 6.8 | 5.1 | -26% | North Carolina | 7.7 | 6.4 | -18% | |
| SMU | 6.5 | 5.1 | -23% | Mississippi State | 7.5 | 6.1 | -18% | |
| Iowa State | 6.2 | 5.0 | -20% | BYU | 7.6 | 6.2 | -19% | |
| South Alabama | 5.1 | 5.0 | -2% | TCU | 6.9 | 5.6 | -19% | |
| Temple | 5.5 | 4.9 | -10% | Utah State | 8.8 | 7.1 | -20% | |
| UAB | 4.8 | 4.9 | 1% | Iowa State | 6.2 | 5.0 | -20% | |
| Akron | 4.9 | 4.8 | 0% | Florida International | 5.8 | 4.6 | -20% | |
| Colorado | 2.5 | 4.8 | 93% | Virginia Tech | 6.9 | 5.4 | -22% | |
| Purdue | 5.2 | 4.7 | -8% | Miami (Ohio) | 4.6 | 3.5 | -23% | |
| Florida International | 5.8 | 4.6 | -20% | SMU | 6.5 | 5.1 | -23% | |
| Washington State | 4.5 | 4.5 | -2% | Louisiana-Lafayette | 7.2 | 5.5 | -23% | |
| Kentucky | 4.4 | 4.4 | 0% | Kansas State | 8.5 | 6.5 | -24% | |
| Florida Atlantic | 5.8 | 4.3 | -25% | Vanderbilt | 8.2 | 6.2 | -24% | |
| California | 4.9 | 4.3 | -13% | Louisiana Tech | 7.3 | 5.5 | -24% | |
| Georgia State | 3.8 | 4.3 | 14% | Florida Atlantic | 5.8 | 4.3 | -25% | |
| Southern Mississippi | 3.8 | 4.2 | 12% | Oregon State | 7.4 | 5.5 | -25% | |
| UNLV | 4.7 | 4.2 | -10% | Louisiana-Monroe | 7.2 | 5.4 | -25% | |
| UTEP | 4.8 | 4.2 | -13% | Georgia | 8.1 | 6.1 | -25% | |
| Hawaii | 3.4 | 4.0 | 17% | Pittsburgh | 6.8 | 5.1 | -26% | |
| Kansas | 4.0 | 3.9 | -3% | Tulsa | 7.7 | 5.5 | -29% | |
| Miami (Ohio) | 4.6 | 3.5 | -23% | San Diego State | 7.3 | 5.2 | -29% | |
| Massachusetts | 2.6 | 3.5 | 33% | Ohio | 8.0 | 5.7 | -29% | |
| Idaho | 2.7 | 3.4 | 27% | Boise State | 8.2 | 5.8 | -30% | |
| Connecticut | 6.6 | 3.1 | -52% | Connecticut | 6.6 | 3.1 | -52% |
Generally, the model recognized teams that over- or under-performed expectations from the prior week.
Week 2 Game Predictions
Predicted Winner is in bold.
| Away | Home | Away P(win) | Home P(win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake Forest | Boston College | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| UAB | LSU | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Alcorn State | Mississippi State | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Arizona | UNLV | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Arkansas State | Auburn | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| Army | Ball State | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Austin Peay | Vanderbilt | 0.03 | 0.97 |
| Bowling Green | Kent State | 0.36 | 0.64 |
| Buffalo | Baylor | 0.02 | 0.98 |
| Cal Poly | Fresno State | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| California-Davis | Nevada | 0.03 | .97 |
| Central Arkansas | Colorado | 0.10 | .90 |
| UCF | Florida International | 0.72 | 0.28 |
| Chattanooga | Georgia State | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Cincinnati | Illinois | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| Colorado State | Tulsa | 0.37 | 0.63 |
| Duke | Memphis | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Louisville | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Eastern Michigan | Penn State | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Florida | Miami (Florida) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Florida Atlantic | East Carolina | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Gardner-Webb | Marshall | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Grambling State | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| Hawai'i | Oregon State | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Houston | Temple | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Idaho | Wyoming | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| Indiana State | Purdue | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| James Madison | Akron | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| Lamar | Louisiana Tech | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Kansas State | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Maine | Massachusetts | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| Miami (Ohio) | Kentucky | 0.27 | 0.63 |
| Middle Tennessee | North Carolina | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Minnesota | New Mexico State | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Missouri State | Iowa | 0.02 | 0.98 |
| Montana State | SMU | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Navy | Indiana | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| New Hampshire | Central Michigan | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| New Mexico | UTEP | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| Nicholls State | Western Michigan | 0.04 | 0.96 |
| Norfolk State | Rutgers | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| North Texas | Ohio | 0.72 | 0.28 |
| Notre Dame | Michigan | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Oklahoma State | UTSA | 0.84 | 0.16 |
| Old Dominion | Maryland | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Oregon | Virginia | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| Portland State | California | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Prairie View A&M | Texas State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Richmond | North Carolina State | 0.10 | .90 |
| Sacramento State | Arizona State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Sam Houston State | Texas A&M | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| Samford | Arkansas | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| San Diego State | Ohio State | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| San Jose State | Stanford | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| Savannah State | Troy | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| South Alabama | Tulane | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| South Carolina | Georgia | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| South Carolina State | Clemson | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| South Dakota | Kansas | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| South Florida | Michigan State | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| Southeast Missouri State | Mississippi | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Southeastern Louisiana | TCU | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Southern Mississippi | Nebraska | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Texas Tech | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Syracuse | Northwestern | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| Tennessee Tech | Wisconsin | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Tennessee-Martin | Boise State | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| Texas | BYU | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| Toledo | Missouri | 0.15 | 0.85 |
| Utah State | Air Force | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| Washington State | USC | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Weber State | Utah | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma | 0.19 | 0.81 |
| Western Carolina | Virginia Tech | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Western Kentucky | Tennessee | 0.12 | 0.88 |
Enjoy Week 2.
GBR!
Loading comments...