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Last year at this time, Alabama was comically ahead of everybody else in the F/+ rankings.
2012 F/+ rankings after 4 weeks
1. Alabama (+60.2%)
2. Oregon (+35.2%)
3. Florida State (+30.4%)
4. LSU (+25.6%)
5. Texas (+25.0%)
This year, Oregon is No. 1 at +33.1%, and the No. 5 team, Florida, is at just +21.6%, which would have been ninth at this time a year ago. The field has failed to separate itself to date, and with a smaller range of ratings, the New Method picks below still hate basically every big favorite. While that paid off pretty well early on, especially in FBS vs. FCS games, it has stopped paying off. And after four weeks, New Method is now officially under .500 while Old plugs right along at the 52 percent it always seems to reach.
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - TOTAL
New: 131-133-5 (50%)
Old: 89-83-3 (52%)
The Agreement picks are still doing well, though last week was the least successful yet. Agreement likes odd-numbered weeks better, evidently.
- Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
TOTAL: 61-42-1 (59%)
But yeah, those FCS picks have stopped paying off. Really, really stopped paying off.
- New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
Week 3: 5-10 (33%)
Week 4: 3-12 (20%)
TOTAL: 48-44-2 (52%)
Luckily there are now FBS/FCS games this week (unless you count Old Dominion's game versus Albany). So that's not a concern.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 6.0 (23.1 - 17.1) | 68.1% | Virginia Tech |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at Tulsa | -3 | Iowa State by 0.0 (26.9 - 26.9) | 54.3% | Iowa State |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPNU | Middle Tennessee at BYU | -23 | BYU by 19.5 (34.1 - 14.6) | 91.4% | Middle Tennessee |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Utah State at San Jose State | 10 | Utah State by 9.0 (31.7 - 22.7) | 74.3% | San Jose State |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Miami-FL at South Florida | 19 | Miami-FL by 12.3 (30.9 - 18.6) | 80.3% | South Florida |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Miami-OH at Illinois | -24.5 | Illinois by 19.6 (33.1 - 13.4) | 91.6% | Miami-OH |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Northern Illinois at Purdue | 3.5 | Northern Illinois by 6.7 (34.1 - 27.4) | 69.6% | Northern Illinois |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | 18.5 | Oklahoma State by 15.0 (36.1 - 21.1) | 85.0% | West Virginia |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | SMU at TCU | -20 | TCU by 18.8 (32.1 - 13.4) | 90.4% | SMU |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | South Carolina at Central Florida | 7.5 | Central Florida by 0.5 (37.3 - 36.8) | 55.5% | Central Florida |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | South Alabama at Tennessee | -20 | Tennessee by 13.5 (35.5 - 22.0) | 82.4% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | East Carolina at North Carolina | -12 | North Carolina by 7.8 (28.1 - 20.3) | 71.9% | East Carolina |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | -6 | Pittsburgh by 7.5 (32.2 - 24.7) | 71.4% | Pittsburgh |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN News | Navy at Western Kentucky | 3 | Navy by 0.7 (37.6 - 36.9) | 56.1% | Western Kentucky |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Bowling Green | -15 | Bowling Green by 13.3 (37.1 - 23.8) | 82.1% | Akron |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Oregon State | -11 | Oregon State by 14.3 (37.4 - 23.1) | 83.7% | Oregon State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Toledo at Ball State | -2.5 | Ball State by 2.2 (36.3 - 34.0) | 59.7% | Toledo |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at Duke | -11 | Duke by 17.1 (43.7 - 26.6) | 88.1% | Duke |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Central Michigan at NC State | -24 | NC State by 16.2 (37.6 - 21.4) | 86.7% | Central Michigan |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Connecticut at Buffalo | -1 | Connecticut by 5.9 (20.5 - 14.6) | 68.0% | Connecticut |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
Florida State at Boston College | 22 | Florida State by 20.1 (35.8 - 15.7) | 92.2% | Boston College |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ ESPN2 |
Iowa at Minnesota | 1 | Iowa by 2.4 (21.7 - 19.3) | 60.1% | Iowa |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | LSU at Georgia | -3 | Georgia by 2.6 (32.8 - 30.2) | 60.6% | LSU |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Oklahoma at Notre Dame | 3.5 | Oklahoma by 1.9 (31.3 - 29.4) | 58.9% | Notre Dame |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS Sports | UTEP at Colorado State | -13.5 | Colorado State by 9.0 (32.8 - 23.8) | 74.3% | UTEP |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Wake Forest at Clemson | -29 | Clemson by 19.7 (34.3 - 14.7) | 91.6% | Wake Forest |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Houston at UTSA | 3 | Houston by 1.9 (29.9 - 27.9) | 59.0% | UTSA | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Louisiana Tech at Army | -2 | Louisiana Tech by 2.5 (34.3 - 31.8) | 60.4% | Louisiana Tech |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Temple at Idaho | 8 | Temple by 5.4 (29.0 - 23.6) | 66.9% | Idaho | |
| Sat | 6:30 PM | ESPN | Ole Miss at Alabama | -15 | Alabama by 14.2 (38.1 - 23.9) | 83.6% | Ole Miss |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Arizona at Washington | -10 | Arizona by 0.7 (28.7 - 28.1) | 55.9% | Arizona |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Florida at Kentucky | 13 | Florida by 13.1 (27.2 - 14.1) | 81.8% | Florida |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Florida Atlantic at Rice | -13.5 | Rice by 9.3 (31.4 - 22.0) | 74.9% | Florida Atlantic | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Western Michigan | -2.5 | Western Michigan by 4.4 (31.6 - 27.2) | 64.6% | Western Michigan |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Texas A&M at Arkansas | N/A | Texas A&M by 3.4 (39.6 - 36.2) | 62.5% | N/A |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Tulane at UL-Monroe | -14 | UL-Monroe by 5.1 (26.9 - 21.8) | 66.1% | Tulane |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | LHN | Wyoming at Texas State | 12 | Wyoming by 4.9 (27.3 - 22.4) | 65.9% | Texas State |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Missouri | -21 | Missouri by 22.5 (44.8 - 22.3) | 95.1% | Missouri |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | UAB at Vanderbilt | -19.5 | Vanderbilt by 13.2 (36.7 - 23.5) | 81.9% | UAB |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBS Sports | Air Force at Nevada | -7 | Nevada by 11.9 (48.1 - 36.2) | 79.6% | Nevada |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | San Diego State at New Mexico State | 17.5 | San Diego State by 11.1 (28.4 - 17.3) | 78.2% | New Mexico State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UNLV at New Mexico | 3 | New Mexico by 0.4 (26.5 - 26.0) | 55.4% | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Wisconsin at Ohio State | -7 | Ohio State by 6.4 (32.7 - 26.2) | 69.1% | Wisconsin |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | ESPN | Stanford at Washington State | 10 | Stanford by 15.3 (31.8 - 16.5) | 85.4% | Stanford |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPNU | Southern Miss at Boise State | -28 | Boise State by 15.2 (30.1 - 14.8) | 85.2% | Southern Miss |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | California at Oregon | -36.5 | Oregon by 36.8 (56.4 - 19.7) | 100.0% | Oregon |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | USC at Arizona State | -6 | USC by 0.1 (19.8 - 19.7) | 54.6% | USC |
| Sun | 12:00 AM | Fresno State at Hawaii | 18.5 | Fresno State by 9.6 (28.2 - 18.5) | 75.4% | Hawaii |
OLD METHOD
Games in bold are ones in which New and Old methods agree.
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | Prediction | Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 6.7 | Virginia Tech | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Iowa State at Tulsa | -3 | Iowa State by 1.5 | Iowa State | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | Middle Tennessee at BYU | -23 | BYU by 25.9 | BYU | XXX |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | Utah State at San Jose State | 10 | Utah State by 14.7 | Utah State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Miami-FL at South Florida | 19 | Miami-FL by 19.8 | Miami-FL | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Miami-OH at Illinois | -24.5 | Illinois by 28.3 | Illinois | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Purdue | 3.5 | Northern Illinois by 10.7 | Northern Illinois | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | 18.5 | Oklahoma State by 21.3 | Oklahoma State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SMU at TCU | -20 | TCU by 25.9 | TCU | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | South Carolina at Central Florida | 7.5 | South Carolina by 0.7 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | South Alabama at Tennessee | -20 | Tennessee by 17.4 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | East Carolina at North Carolina | -12 | North Carolina by 9.3 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Virginia at Pittsburgh | -6 | Pittsburgh by 9.4 | Pittsburgh | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Navy at Western Kentucky | 3 | Navy by 2.6 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 2:30 PM | Akron at Bowling Green | -15 | Bowling Green by 17.2 | Bowling Green | XXX |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Colorado at Oregon State | -11 | Oregon State by 19.2 | Oregon State | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Toledo at Ball State | -2.5 | Ball State by 1.5 | Toledo | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Troy at Duke | -11 | Duke by 21.0 | Duke | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Central Michigan at NC State | -24 | NC State by 21.7 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Connecticut at Buffalo | -1 | Connecticut by 10.1 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Florida State at Boston College | 22 | Florida State by 32.0 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Iowa at Minnesota | 1 | Iowa by 5.2 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | LSU at Georgia | -3 | Georgia by 2.5 | LSU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Oklahoma at Notre Dame | 3.5 | Oklahoma by 4.2 | Oklahoma | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTEP at Colorado State | -13.5 | Colorado State by 12.4 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Wake Forest at Clemson | -29 | Clemson by 25.1 | Wake Forest | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Houston at UTSA | 3 | Houston by 4.2 | Houston | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Louisiana Tech at Army | -2 | Louisiana Tech by 3.2 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Temple at Idaho | 8 | Temple by 10.0 | Temple | XXX |
| Sat | 6:30 PM | Ole Miss at Alabama | -15 | Alabama by 19.1 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Arizona at Washington | -10 | Arizona by 2.4 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Florida at Kentucky | 13 | Florida by 22.0 | Florida | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Florida Atlantic at Rice | -13.5 | Rice by 11.3 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Kent State at Western Michigan | -2.5 | Western Michigan by 4.7 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Texas A&M at Arkansas | XXX | Texas A&M by 6.4 | N/A | N/A |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Tulane at UL-Monroe | -14 | UL-Monroe by 5.9 | Tulane | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Wyoming at Texas State | 12 | Wyoming by 9.0 | Texas State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Arkansas State at Missouri | -21 | Missouri by 29.8 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | UAB at Vanderbilt | -19.5 | Vanderbilt by 17.4 | UAB | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Air Force at Nevada | -7 | Nevada by 13.4 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | San Diego State at New Mexico State | 17.5 | San Diego State by 18.2 | San Diego State | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UNLV at New Mexico | 3 | UNLV by 0.9 | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Wisconsin at Ohio State | -7 | Ohio State by 7.9 | Ohio State | XXX |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Stanford at Washington State | 10 | Stanford by 19.2 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | Southern Miss at Boise State | -28 | Boise State by 21.5 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | California at Oregon | -36.5 | Oregon by 47.9 | Oregon | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | USC at Arizona State | -6 | USC by 1.7 | USC | |
| Sun | 12:00 AM | Fresno State at Hawaii | 18.5 | Fresno State by 14.9 | Hawaii |
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