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Perhaps it was a function of the crappy games scheduled for Week 4, but the model performed better predicting last weeks games. It correctly predicted 80.4% of Week 4 games, up from 70.5% for Week 3. For the season, the model has correctly predicted the winner of 77.4% of games.
Season Expected Win Totals
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | AAC | 7.59 | 7.82 | 8.05 | 8.41 | 8.59 | 2% |
| Louisville | AAC | 7.41 | 8.16 | 7.60 | 7.71 | 8.31 | 8% |
| Cincinnati | AAC | 8.29 | 8.40 | 7.66 | 6.80 | 8.12 | 19% |
| Rutgers | AAC | 7.65 | 7.84 | 7.56 | 7.73 | 8.07 | 4% |
| Houston | AAC | 5.21 | 6.86 | 5.83 | 6.10 | 6.28 | 3% |
| SMU | AAC | 6.54 | 5.05 | 5.87 | 6.19 | 5.53 | -11% |
| Memphis | AAC | 5.55 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 5.41 | 5.31 | -2% |
| Connecticut | AAC | 6.61 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 4.57 | 4.41 | -4% |
| South Florida | AAC | 5.62 | 5.62 | 4.62 | 3.93 | 3.82 | -3% |
The model continues to recognize something in UCF's play that isn't reflected int he polls. UCF received votes in this week's AP poll whereas Louisville is ranked #7 in the same poll. Louisville had as significant increase in expected wins this week however. Cincinnati's and Rutgers' gains at the expense of SMU, Houston, and Memphis.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | ACC | 9.62 | 9.28 | 9.70 | 9.88 | 9.78 | -1% |
| Clemson | ACC | 8.00 | 7.23 | 8.58 | 8.41 | 9.02 | 7% |
| Maryland | ACC | 5.53 | 7.34 | 6.27 | 7.15 | 7.59 | 6% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.91 | 5.37 | 7.03 | 7.85 | 7.49 | -5% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6.69 | 8.64 | 6.48 | 7.00 | 7.34 | 5% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 7.74 | 6.38 | 7.70 | 7.88 | 7.30 | -7% |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 6.83 | 5.08 | 6.56 | 6.72 | 7.18 | 7% |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 7.39 | 7.63 | 7.82 | 7.85 | 7.13 | -9% |
| Miami (Florida) | ACC | 6.04 | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.90 | 7.11 | 3% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 6.83 | 5.71 | 6.09 | 6.05 | 6.25 | 3% |
| Virginia | ACC | 5.66 | 6.48 | 5.96 | 5.94 | 6.20 | 4% |
| Duke | ACC | 5.52 | 7.38 | 6.21 | 5.40 | 5.25 | -3% |
| Boston College | ACC | 5.21 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 4.98 | 5.04 | 1% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4.30 | 5.79 | 4.37 | 3.90 | 4.59 | 18% |
Little changed for expected wins in the ACC. FSU and Clemson remain the conference's elite teams, and that's unlikely to change barring an upset until they meet on the field. There is a real bottleneck developing in the ACC, with 7 teams within .48 exp. wins of each other.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 7.46 | 8.34 | 8.46 | 8.70 | 8.71 | 0% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7.27 | 7.95 | 7.66 | 6.77 | 7.72 | 14% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6.35 | 7.05 | 7.11 | 7.71 | 7.62 | -1% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.49 | 6.47 | 7.48 | 7.63 | 7.22 | -5% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 6.68 | 8.16 | 6.65 | 7.55 | 7.09 | -6% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 6.60 | 7.57 | 6.38 | 5.76 | 6.20 | 8% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 6.92 | 5.61 | 6.67 | 5.99 | 5.98 | 0% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 6.31 | 6.01 | 5.52 | 5.63 | 5.27 | -6% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.25 | 4.98 | 5.32 | 4.89 | 5.00 | 2% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 4.64 | 4.51 | 4.54 | 1% |
Despite its jaw-dropping offensive performances this year, Baylor is not scoring a lot of points in the model. It actually dropped .46 exp. wins this week, largely due to Texas' and Oklahoma's gains. The head-scratcher in the model remains Kansas State, which is tenaciously clinging to the upper-half of the Big 12.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Big Ten | 7.20 | 7.09 | 8.13 | 7.77 | 8.77 | 13% |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 7.90 | 8.05 | 8.32 | 9.33 | 8.73 | -6% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 7.80 | 7.55 | 8.30 | 8.41 | 8.41 | 0% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 7.41 | 8.47 | 8.08 | 8.05 | 7.76 | -4% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 8.03 | 8.36 | 7.80 | 7.42 | 7.75 | 4% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 7.79 | 6.99 | 8.01 | 7.38 | 7.73 | 5% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.53 | 6.50 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 7.26 | 8% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 7.62 | 7.44 | 7.38 | 6.95 | 6.88 | -1% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 5.88 | 5.33 | 5.47 | 6.16 | 6.53 | 6% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 4.41 | 5.19 | 5.35 | 5.07 | 5.16 | 2% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 5.81 | 6.74 | 4.89 | 5.84 | 4.86 | -17% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 5.17 | 4.75 | 5.36 | 5.03 | 4.74 | -6% |
In the Big Ten, Michigan, despite almost losing to American Conference cellar dweller UConn, gained a full game in exp. wins. These gains came at the expense of Michigan State, Nebraska, and Ohio State. It's worth noting that the Huskers are one of only three teams in FBS who have shown decreased exp. wins every week this season. The other two are Western Michigan and Kentucky.
The changes in the Big Ten this week are a good reminder of how a purely data-driven model can sometimes seem detached from results on the field. One would be hard pressed to find anyone who actually watched football on Friday who would have expected Michigan to show an increase in expected wins on the season. That, however, is due mostly to the one game that Michigan played, versus all the games that Michigan's opponents, and their opponents, played. Strange results aren't necessarily all that strange when the totality of the college football schedule is considered.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | Independent | 7.891 | 7.675 | 7.452 | 8.01 | 8.53 | 6% |
| Navy | Independent | 6.222 | 5.606 | 6.733 | 7.045 | 6.95 | -1% |
| BYU | Independent | 7.576 | 6.173 | 7.738 | 7.8 | 6.74 | -14% |
| Army | Independent | 5.313 | 6.627 | 5.485 | 4.271 | 3.75 | -12% |
| New Mexico State | Independent | 3.875 | 5.282 | 3.593 | 3.052 | 3.03 | -1% |
| Idaho | Independent | 2.693 | 3.431 | 2.839 | 2.779 | 2.49 | -11% |
| Old Dominion | Independent | 0.363 | 0.227 | 0.254 | 0.268 | 0.26 | -1% |
Notre Dame gained this week, primarily due to beating Michigan State. The model isn't being fooled by BYU any longer, as it fell more than 1 exp. win.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Pac 12 | 9.314 | 9.366 | 9.522 | 9.657 | 9.62 | 0% |
| Stanford | Pac 12 | 7.291 | 7.026 | 7.673 | 8.078 | 8.54 | 6% |
| USC | Pac 12 | 7.849 | 8.125 | 7.501 | 7.504 | 8.12 | 8% |
| Arizona State | Pac 12 | 8.232 | 7.538 | 7.801 | 7.607 | 7.88 | 4% |
| Oregon State | Pac 12 | 7.36 | 5.515 | 6.599 | 7.307 | 7.81 | 7% |
| Washington | Pac 12 | 6.696 | 7.431 | 7.303 | 7.363 | 7.49 | 2% |
| UCLA | Pac 12 | 6.756 | 7.259 | 6.868 | 7.932 | 7.43 | -6% |
| Utah | Pac 12 | 5.921 | 6.547 | 6.912 | 6.533 | 7.02 | 7% |
| Arizona | Pac 12 | 6.253 | 7.04 | 6.506 | 6.871 | 6.84 | 0% |
| Washington State | Pac 12 | 4.527 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 4.955 | 5.45 | 10% |
| California | Pac 12 | 4.94 | 4.286 | 5.068 | 4.61 | 4.61 | 0% |
| Colorado | Pac 12 | 2.493 | 4.813 | 3.581 | 3.368 | 3.39 | 1% |
Oregon is in solid control of the Pac-12, and will remain there unless Stanford can upset the Ducks. USC remains a surprise in the model.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 9.965 | 9.273 | 9.951 | 10.609 | 10.59 | 0% |
| LSU | SEC | 7.754 | 7.569 | 8.328 | 8.549 | 8.62 | 1% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.741 | 8.488 | 8.922 | 8.383 | 8.41 | 0% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 8.295 | 7.813 | 7.634 | 8.05 | 8.13 | 1% |
| Florida | SEC | 7.961 | 7.968 | 7.777 | 7.748 | 7.94 | 2% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 6.528 | 6.987 | 7.08 | 7.703 | 7.78 | 1% |
| Georgia | SEC | 8.137 | 6.089 | 8.103 | 8.299 | 7.68 | -7% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 8.159 | 6.189 | 7.356 | 7.013 | 7.00 | 0% |
| Missouri | SEC | 5.642 | 6.946 | 6.149 | 5.394 | 6.73 | 25% |
| Auburn | SEC | 4.947 | 6.332 | 5.943 | 6.534 | 6.57 | 1% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 7.475 | 6.099 | 6.839 | 5.669 | 6.21 | 9% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 5.449 | 6.934 | 5.607 | 5.442 | 5.87 | 8% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5.009 | 6.467 | 5.577 | 6.319 | 5.66 | -10% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4.39 | 4.382 | 4.212 | 4.194 | 3.88 | -7% |
There's some really interesting stuff in the SEC. Alabama remains the only FBS team with more than 10 expected regular season wins. Ole Miss has made steady increases in exp. wins each week, so the 'Bama-Ole Miss game this week is setting up to be a huge factor in sorting out the SEC. LSU is back in the familiar position of #2 behind Alabama. Missouri was the big gainer in the SEC this week, with an exp. win increase of 25% for the season.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Current Week % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 8.812 | 8.012 | 9.125 | 9.307 | 9.27 | -6% |
| Fresno State | MWC | 8.437 | 7.446 | 8.529 | 7.372 | 8.79 | 13% |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 7.707 | 8.273 | 8.832 | 8.358 | 8.37 | -2% |
| Ohio | MAC | 7.998 | 5.663 | 7.864 | 7.878 | 7.92 | 1% |
| Utah State | MWC | 8.793 | 7.075 | 8.121 | 8.462 | 7.79 | -2% |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 6.48 | 7.11 | 6.35 | 6.81 | 7.40 | -6% |
| San Jose State | MWC | 8.257 | 7.985 | 7.542 | 7.985 | 7.20 | -5% |
| Boise State | MWC | 8.22 | 5.769 | 7.617 | 6.504 | 7.17 | -28% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 8.262 | 8.522 | 7.317 | 7.639 | 7.16 | 9% |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 7.154 | 5.525 | 6.293 | 6.245 | 7.07 | 4% |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 7.664 | 5.475 | 7.605 | 6.825 | 7.07 | 3% |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 7.128 | 7.063 | 7.564 | 6.999 | 6.86 | 0% |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 7.191 | 5.385 | 6.551 | 6.712 | 6.76 | -13% |
| Toledo | MAC | 6.478 | 5.659 | 6.065 | 6.088 | 6.64 | -2% |
| UTSA | CUSA | 5.768 | 6.361 | 6.446 | 6.406 | 6.63 | -2% |
| Ball State | MAC | 6.605 | 6.551 | 6.449 | 5.607 | 6.59 | -19% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 6 | 6.976 | 6.504 | 6.459 | 6.35 | -9% |
| North Texas | CUSA | 6.373 | 7.337 | 6.078 | 6.193 | 6.22 | -11% |
| Rice | CUSA | 5.899 | 6.859 | 6.172 | 7.04 | 6.14 | 4% |
| East Carolina | CUSA | 6.432 | 6.757 | 6.599 | 6.18 | 6.07 | 9% |
| Wyoming | MWC | 5.37 | 5.407 | 5.08 | 5.196 | 5.96 | -6% |
| Kent State | MAC | 6.762 | 7.523 | 6.47 | 6.198 | 5.84 | 3% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 6.032 | 6.134 | 6.356 | 6.173 | 5.78 | 0% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 5.05 | 4.959 | 5.194 | 5.821 | 5.54 | 0% |
| Nevada | MWC | 6.015 | 6.475 | 5.274 | 5.107 | 5.28 | 1% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 5.322 | 5.514 | 5.182 | 4.846 | 5.27 | 9% |
| San Diego State | MWC | 7.288 | 5.167 | 5.721 | 5.946 | 5.26 | 17% |
| Marshall | CUSA | 5.623 | 7.149 | 5.141 | 5.162 | 5.08 | -6% |
| New Mexico | MWC | 5.26 | 5.27 | 5.279 | 5.066 | 5.06 | 9% |
| Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 5.785 | 4.348 | 5.479 | 6.089 | 4.96 | -5% |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 7.285 | 5.517 | 5.777 | 5.306 | 4.85 | -12% |
| Air Force | MWC | 6.033 | 7.228 | 5.632 | 5.489 | 4.83 | -10% |
| UNLV | MWC | 4.718 | 4.226 | 4.261 | 4.576 | 4.77 | -18% |
| UTEP | CUSA | 4.846 | 4.221 | 4.611 | 5.133 | 4.56 | -23% |
| UAB | CUSA | 4.836 | 4.881 | 4.441 | 4.384 | 4.55 | -10% |
| Florida International | CUSA | 5.808 | 4.618 | 5.644 | 4.149 | 4.54 | 19% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 6.577 | 5.798 | 5.141 | 4.765 | 4.53 | -8% |
| Colorado State | MWC | 5.584 | 5.228 | 4.944 | 5.539 | 4.39 | -10% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 5.655 | 6.494 | 5.355 | 4.95 | 4.36 | 10% |
| Tulane | CUSA | 3.721 | 5.878 | 3.39 | 4.607 | 4.33 | 15% |
| Akron | MAC | 4.853 | 4.833 | 4.869 | 4.708 | 4.26 | 3% |
| Hawaii | MWC | 3.447 | 4.028 | 3.429 | 3.453 | 3.78 | -12% |
| Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 4.574 | 3.538 | 3.892 | 4.433 | 3.64 | 0% |
| Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 3.801 | 4.244 | 3.259 | 3.468 | 3.56 | -12% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 3.699 | 5.368 | 4.006 | 4.355 | 3.37 | 4% |
| Massachusetts | MAC | 2.643 | 3.518 | 2.125 | 2.024 | 1.82 | -21% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.754 | 4.273 | 2.459 | 2.318 | 1.66 | 9% |
Northern Illinois and Fresno State are tops among non-AQ conferences. The Bulldogs would probably like to get that game against Pac-12 bottom feeder Colorado rescheduled. It would be a near-certain win for them and might be the key to getting Fresno State into the BCS.
Week 5 Model Picks
Winner is in bold. Some of the biggest games are:
| Wisconsin | @ Ohio State | 0.434 | 0.568 |
| Mississippi | @ Alabama | 0.184 | 0.818 |
| Oklahoma | @ Notre Dame | 0.333 | 0.669 |
| LSU | @ Georgia | 0.407 | 0.595 |
| Visitor | Home | Vis P(win) | Home P(win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | Tulsa | 0.629 | 0.379 |
| Navy | Western Kentucky | 0.301 | 0.701 |
| SMU | TCU | 0.364 | 0.638 |
| Troy | Duke | 0.425 | 0.577 |
| Stanford | Washington State | 0.809 | 0.193 |
| UAB | Vanderbilt | 0.085 | 0.917 |
| Utah State | San Jose State | 0.393 | 0.609 |
| Wisconsin | Ohio State | 0.434 | 0.568 |
| Toledo | Ball State | 0.393 | 0.609 |
| East Carolina | North Carolina | 0.158 | 0.844 |
| Tulane | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.097 | 0.905 |
| Florida Atlantic | Rice | 0.269 | 0.733 |
| Fresno State | Hawai'i | 0.629 | 0.373 |
| Houston | UTSA | 0.346 | 0.656 |
| Miami (Florida) | South Florida | 0.663 | 0.339 |
| Middle Tennessee | BYU | 0.104 | 0.898 |
| Mississippi | Alabama | 0.184 | 0.818 |
| Kent State | Western Michigan | 0.443 | 0.559 |
| California | Oregon | 0.17 | 0.832 |
| Virginia | Pittsburgh | 0.322 | 0.68 |
| Army | Louisiana Tech | 0.188 | 0.814 |
| Akron | Bowling Green | 0.17 | 0.832 |
| Northern Illinois | Purdue | 0.548 | 0.454 |
| Florida | Kentucky | 0.78 | 0.222 |
| Colorado | Oregon State | 0.074 | 0.928 |
| Oklahoma | Notre Dame | 0.333 | 0.669 |
| Oklahoma State | West Virginia | 0.647 | 0.355 |
| Wyoming | Texas State | 0.421 | 0.581 |
| San Diego State | New Mexico State | 0.651 | 0.351 |
| Central Michigan | North Carolina State | 0.24 | 0.762 |
| Connecticut | Buffalo | 0.602 | 0.4 |
| Wake Forest | Clemson | 0.151 | 0.851 |
| Florida State | Boston College | 0.754 | 0.248 |
| South Alabama | Tennessee | 0.25 | 0.752 |
| Air Force | Nevada | 0.326 | 0.676 |
| Miami (Ohio) | Illinois | 0.406 | 0.596 |
| Temple | Idaho | 0.636 | 0.366 |
| Southern Mississippi | Boise State | 0.094 | 0.908 |
| Texas A&M | Arkansas | 0.669 | 0.333 |
| South Carolina | UCF | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| UTEP | Colorado State | 0.339 | 0.663 |
| Texas | Iowa State | 0.419 | 0.583 |
| Virginia Tech | Georgia Tech | 0.343 | 0.659 |
| USC | Arizona State | 0.394 | 0.608 |
| Iowa | Minnesota | 0.474 | 0.528 |
| Arizona | Washington | 0.348 | 0.654 |
| Arkansas State | Missouri | 0.364 | 0.638 |
| UNLV | New Mexico | 0.327 | 0.675 |
| LSU | Georgia | 0.407 | 0.595 |
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