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First of all, let me apologize for my tardiness getting this posted. It's been one of those weeks. Bo Pelini may have had a better week than I did.
Recap of Last Week's Predictions
In Week 2 the model correctly predicted 82.5% of games. Things weren't quite so rosy in Week 3, with the model correctly predicting only 71.6% of games. The Colorado-Fresno State game was not played, so the prediction was not used in the calculations.
Year to date, the model has correctly predicted 76.7% of games.
Updated Regular Season Expected Wins
This is the first week in which the model considers only on field data from 2013.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | AAC | 7.59 | 7.82 | 8.05 | 8.41 | 4.5% |
| Rutgers | AAC | 7.65 | 7.84 | 7.56 | 7.73 | 2.3% |
| Louisville | AAC | 7.41 | 8.16 | 7.60 | 7.71 | 1.5% |
| Cincinnati | AAC | 8.29 | 8.40 | 7.66 | 6.80 | -11.2% |
| SMU | AAC | 6.54 | 5.05 | 5.87 | 6.19 | 5.5% |
| Houston | AAC | 5.21 | 6.86 | 5.83 | 6.10 | 4.7% |
| Memphis | AAC | 5.55 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 5.41 | 2.5% |
| Connecticut | AAC | 6.61 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 4.57 | -19.4% |
| South Florida | AAC | 5.62 | 5.62 | 4.62 | 3.93 | -15.0% |
| Temple | AAC | 5.48 | 4.94 | 4.43 | 3.49 | -21.1% |
UCF's victory over Penn State has pushed it to the top of the model standings. The model continues to not like Louisville.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | ACC | 9.62 | 9.28 | 9.70 | 9.88 | 1.8% |
| Clemson | ACC | 8.00 | 7.23 | 8.58 | 8.41 | -2.0% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 7.74 | 6.38 | 7.70 | 7.88 | 2.4% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.91 | 5.37 | 7.03 | 7.85 | 11.7% |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 7.39 | 7.63 | 7.82 | 7.85 | 0.4% |
| Maryland | ACC | 5.53 | 7.34 | 6.27 | 7.15 | 13.9% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6.69 | 8.64 | 6.48 | 7.00 | 8.1% |
| Miami (Florida) | ACC | 6.04 | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.90 | -0.7% |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 6.83 | 5.08 | 6.56 | 6.72 | 2.5% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 6.83 | 5.71 | 6.09 | 6.05 | -0.6% |
| Virginia | ACC | 5.66 | 6.48 | 5.96 | 5.94 | -0.3% |
| Duke | ACC | 5.52 | 7.38 | 6.21 | 5.40 | -13.0% |
| Boston College | ACC | 5.21 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 4.98 | -11.0% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4.30 | 5.79 | 4.37 | 3.90 | -10.7% |
The model still has Florida State and Clemson as the teams to beat in the ACC. The October 19th game between the two is looming very large in sorting out the ACC. Neither played in Week 3, and yet there was noticeable movement in their expected wins totals. This is a good example of how changes to other teams can, and do, affect teams that didn't play each other.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 7.46 | 8.34 | 8.46 | 8.70 | 2.9% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6.35 | 7.05 | 7.11 | 7.71 | 8.5% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.49 | 6.47 | 7.48 | 7.63 | 1.9% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 6.68 | 8.16 | 6.65 | 7.55 | 13.6% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7.27 | 7.95 | 7.66 | 6.77 | -11.7% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 6.92 | 5.61 | 6.67 | 5.99 | -10.2% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 6.60 | 7.57 | 6.38 | 5.76 | -9.6% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 6.31 | 6.01 | 5.52 | 5.63 | 2.0% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.25 | 4.98 | 5.32 | 4.89 | -8.0% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 4.64 | 4.51 | -2.8% |
The model has a different view of the Big 12 than conventional wisdom holds. This, along with its predictions about Louisville, are some of the more interesting things to watch as the season goes on.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 7.90 | 8.05 | 8.32 | 9.33 | 12.0% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 7.80 | 7.55 | 8.30 | 8.41 | 1.3% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 7.41 | 8.47 | 8.08 | 8.05 | -0.4% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 7.20 | 7.09 | 8.13 | 7.77 | -4.5% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 8.03 | 8.36 | 7.80 | 7.42 | -4.9% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 7.79 | 6.99 | 8.01 | 7.38 | -7.9% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 7.62 | 7.44 | 7.38 | 6.95 | -5.9% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.53 | 6.50 | 6.70 | 6.70 | -0.1% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 5.88 | 5.33 | 5.47 | 6.16 | 12.7% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 5.81 | 6.74 | 4.89 | 5.84 | 19.3% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 4.408 | 5.186 | 5.35 | 5.072 | -5.2% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 5.169 | 4.746 | 5.358 | 5.033 | -6.1% |
There were several interesting developments in the Big Ten last week. Last week I said that Michigan has established itself as the team to beat in the Legends Division. I guess Akron didn't get that memo. Michigan State discovered an office and Nebraska continued its string of beatdowns on national television. Based on its win over Cal, the Buckeyes are pulling away from the rest of the pack, and the logjam between #2 and #6 is breaking apart.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | IND | 7.89 | 7.68 | 7.45 | 8.01 | 7.5% |
| BYU | IND | 7.58 | 6.17 | 7.74 | 7.80 | 0.8% |
| Navy | IND | 6.22 | 5.61 | 6.73 | 7.05 | 4.6% |
| Army | IND | 5.31 | 6.63 | 5.49 | 4.27 | -22.1% |
| New Mexico State | IND | 3.88 | 5.28 | 3.59 | 3.05 | -15.1% |
| Idaho | IND | 2.69 | 3.43 | 2.84 | 2.78 | -2.1% |
Last week I forgot to include the independents. Here you are.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Pac 12 | 9.31 | 9.37 | 9.52 | 9.66 | 1.4% |
| Stanford | Pac 12 | 7.29 | 7.03 | 7.67 | 8.08 | 5.3% |
| UCLA | Pac 12 | 6.76 | 7.26 | 6.87 | 7.93 | 15.5% |
| Arizona State | Pac 12 | 8.23 | 7.54 | 7.80 | 7.61 | -2.5% |
| USC | Pac 12 | 7.85 | 8.13 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 0.0% |
| Washington | Pac 12 | 6.70 | 7.43 | 7.30 | 7.36 | 0.8% |
| Oregon State | Pac 12 | 7.36 | 5.52 | 6.60 | 7.31 | 10.7% |
| Arizona | Pac 12 | 6.25 | 7.04 | 6.51 | 6.87 | 5.6% |
| Utah | Pac 12 | 5.92 | 6.55 | 6.91 | 6.53 | -5.5% |
| Washington State | Pac 12 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 0.1% |
| California | Pac 12 | 4.94 | 4.29 | 5.07 | 4.61 | -9.0% |
| Colorado | Pac 12 | 2.49 | 4.81 | 3.58 | 3.37 | -5.9% |
It may not matter if Colorado and Fresno State don't make up their game from Saturday. The Buffs probability of becoming bowl eligible are less than .0001. UCLA took a big jump this week following their dismantling of Nebraska. Despite the victory over Wisconsin, Arizona State lost a bit of ground. This is probably do more to gains by UCLA and Stanford than from their play on Saturday.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3 to W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 9.97 | 9.27 | 9.95 | 10.61 | 6.6% |
| LSU | SEC | 7.75 | 7.57 | 8.33 | 8.55 | 2.7% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.74 | 8.49 | 8.92 | 8.38 | -6.0% |
| Georgia | SEC | 8.14 | 6.09 | 8.10 | 8.30 | 2.4% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 8.30 | 7.81 | 7.63 | 8.05 | 5.4% |
| Florida | SEC | 7.96 | 7.97 | 7.78 | 7.75 | -0.4% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 6.53 | 6.99 | 7.08 | 7.70 | 8.8% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 8.16 | 6.19 | 7.36 | 7.01 | -4.7% |
| Auburn | SEC | 4.95 | 6.33 | 5.94 | 6.53 | 9.9% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5.01 | 6.47 | 5.58 | 6.32 | 13.3% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 7.48 | 6.10 | 6.84 | 5.67 | -17.1% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 5.45 | 6.93 | 5.61 | 5.44 | -2.9% |
| Missouri | SEC | 5.642 | 6.946 | 6.149 | 5.394 | -12% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4.39 | 4.382 | 4.212 | 4.194 | 0% |
The SEC title game matchup seems pretty much set, with Alabama and Georgia in the drivers' seats. The model actually favored A&M last week, so Alabama's exp. wins took a big jump with the win over A&M. The Alabama-LSU is looking more and important, as LSU's stock has risen each week.
| Team | Conf | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W3-W4 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 8.81 | 8.01 | 9.13 | 9.31 | 2.0% |
| Utah State | MWC | 8.79 | 7.08 | 8.12 | 8.46 | 4.2% |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 7.71 | 8.27 | 8.83 | 8.36 | -5.4% |
| San Jose State | MWC | 8.26 | 7.99 | 7.54 | 7.99 | 5.9% |
| Ohio | MAC | 8.00 | 5.66 | 7.86 | 7.88 | 0.2% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 8.26 | 8.52 | 7.32 | 7.64 | 4.4% |
| Fresno State | MWC | 8.44 | 7.45 | 8.53 | 7.37 | -13.6% |
| Rice | CUSA | 5.90 | 6.86 | 6.17 | 7.04 | 14.1% |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 7.13 | 7.06 | 7.56 | 7.00 | -7.5% |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 7.66 | 5.48 | 7.61 | 6.83 | -10.3% |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 6.48 | 7.11 | 6.35 | 6.81 | 7.2% |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 7.19 | 5.39 | 6.55 | 6.71 | 2.5% |
| Boise State | MWC | 8.22 | 5.77 | 7.62 | 6.50 | -14.6% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 6.00 | 6.98 | 6.50 | 6.46 | -0.7% |
| UTSA | CUSA | 5.77 | 6.36 | 6.45 | 6.41 | -0.6% |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 7.15 | 5.53 | 6.29 | 6.25 | -0.8% |
| Kent State | MAC | 6.76 | 7.52 | 6.47 | 6.20 | -4.2% |
| North Texas | CUSA | 6.37 | 7.34 | 6.08 | 6.19 | 1.9% |
| East Carolina | CUSA | 6.43 | 6.76 | 6.60 | 6.18 | -6.3% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 6.03 | 6.13 | 6.36 | 6.17 | -2.9% |
| Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 5.79 | 4.35 | 5.48 | 6.09 | 11.1% |
| Toledo | MAC | 6.48 | 5.66 | 6.07 | 6.09 | 0.4% |
| San Diego State | MWC | 7.29 | 5.17 | 5.72 | 5.95 | 3.9% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 5.05 | 4.96 | 5.19 | 5.82 | 12.1% |
| Ball State | MAC | 6.61 | 6.55 | 6.45 | 5.61 | -13.1% |
| Colorado State | MWC | 5.58 | 5.23 | 4.94 | 5.54 | 12.0% |
| Air Force | MWC | 6.03 | 7.23 | 5.63 | 5.49 | -2.5% |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 7.29 | 5.52 | 5.78 | 5.31 | -8.2% |
| Wyoming | MWC | 5.37 | 5.41 | 5.08 | 5.20 | 2.3% |
| Marshall | CUSA | 5.62 | 7.15 | 5.14 | 5.16 | 0.4% |
| UTEP | CUSA | 4.85 | 4.22 | 4.61 | 5.13 | 11.3% |
| Nevada | MWC | 6.02 | 6.48 | 5.27 | 5.11 | -3.2% |
| New Mexico | MWC | 5.26 | 5.27 | 5.28 | 5.07 | -4.0% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 5.66 | 6.49 | 5.36 | 4.95 | -7.6% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 5.32 | 5.51 | 5.18 | 4.85 | -6.5% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 6.58 | 5.80 | 5.14 | 4.77 | -7.3% |
| Akron | MAC | 4.85 | 4.83 | 4.87 | 4.71 | -3.3% |
| Tulane | CUSA | 3.72 | 5.88 | 3.39 | 4.61 | 35.9% |
| UNLV | MWC | 4.72 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.58 | 7.4% |
| Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 4.57 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 4.43 | 13.9% |
| UAB | CUSA | 4.84 | 4.88 | 4.44 | 4.38 | -1.3% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 3.70 | 5.37 | 4.01 | 4.36 | 8.7% |
| Florida International | CUSA | 5.81 | 4.62 | 5.64 | 4.15 | -26.5% |
| Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 3.80 | 4.24 | 3.26 | 3.47 | 6.4% |
| Hawaii | MWC | 3.45 | 4.03 | 3.43 | 3.45 | 0.7% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.75 | 4.27 | 2.46 | 2.32 | -5.7% |
| Massachusetts | MAC | 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.13 | 2.02 | -4.8% |
Colorado may not care if that game is reschedule, but it may matter to Fresno State. Northern Illinois looks to be the most-likely non-AQ BCS team again this year.
Week 4 Model Predictions
| Away | Home | Away P(win) | Home P(win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Northwestern | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Florida A&M | Ohio State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Austin Peay | Ohio | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Western Illinois | UNLV | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| Marshall | Virginia Tech | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| North Carolina | Georgia Tech | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Vanderbilt | Massachusetts | 0.94 | 0.06 |
| Tulane | Syracuse | 0.32 | 0.58 |
| Eastern Illinois | Northern Illinois | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Cincinnati | Miami (Ohio) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| UTSA | UTEP | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Morgan State | Western Kentucky | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Colorado State | Alabama | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| Arkansas | Rutgers | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| Oregon State | San Diego State | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| Kent State | Penn State | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Northwestern State | UAB | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| Murray State | Bowling Green | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Iowa State | Tulsa | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Baylor | 0.03 | 0.98 |
| Houston | Rice | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| Ball State | Eastern Michigan | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| Western Michigan | Iowa | 0.36 | 0.64 |
| SMU | Texas A&M | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| Middle Tennessee | Florida Atlantic | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Utah | BYU | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| Tennessee | Florida | 0.23 | 0.77 |
| Idaho | Washington State | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Arizona State | Stanford | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| Florida International | Louisville | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| Michigan | Connecticut | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Missouri | Indiana | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Bethune-Cookman | Florida State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Hawai'i | Nevada | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Akron | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| San Jose State | Minnesota | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Idaho State | Washington | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| Auburn | LSU | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Purdue | Wisconsin | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| South Dakota State | Nebraska | 0.10 | .90 |
| Arkansas State | Memphis | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| Utah State | USC | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Louisiana Tech | Kansas | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Texas State | Texas Tech | 0.18 | 0.82 |
| Toledo | Central Michigan | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| Pittsburgh | Duke | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| North Texas | Georgia | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Wyoming | Air Force | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| VMI | Virginia | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Troy | Mississippi State | 0.24 | 0.76 |
| Wake Forest | Army | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| West Virginia | Maryland | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Michigan State | Notre Dame | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Kansas State | Texas | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| Jacksonville State | Georgia State | 0.28 | 0.72 |
| New Mexico State | UCLA | 0.06 | 0.94 |
| Savannah State | Miami (Florida) | 0.04 | 0.96 |
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