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In Week 3 of the college football season, the new and old methods of picking games met in the middle. Old was drastically better in Week 1, New went flying by in Week 2, and ... neither did much of anything in Week 3.
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - TOTAL
New: 106-100-4 (51%)
Old: 66-63-2 (51%)
With the old picks at least, there's generally been a "kill in Week 1, then regress as Vegas figures things out" trend. That's basically what we've seen here, but things have been hilariously unstable so far.
There is, however, this:
- Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
TOTAL: 44-27 (62%)
So that's exciting, especially since the two methods agree on 33 games this week. Perhaps that means a good week for both methods? Or perhaps it means that the first three weeks have been a mirage. Again, I'll never tell you to try to make money on these picks.
- New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
Week 3: 5-10 (33%)
TOTAL: 45-32-2 (58%)
One thing I've noticed with the New method is that it has remained pretty conservative in its ratings so far. Whereas last year finished with the top team (Alabama) at +51% and the bottom team (Colorado) at -36%, nobody's really separated themselves so far. No. 1 Oregon is only at +32%, and since the New Method predictions center around what eventually becomes a broader range of ratings, you'll see it still mostly taking the underdog in games with big spreads. That backfired last week, when FBS teams actually took advantage of FCS opponents for the most part (poor Temple aside), and it could backfire again this week. We'll see.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson at NC State | 14.5 | Clemson by 6.0 (28.4 - 22.4) | 68.2% | NC State |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Boise State at Fresno State | -3 | Boise State by 1.8 (29.4 - 27.6) | 58.6% | Boise State |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Florida A&M at Ohio State | -50 | Ohio State by 31.6 (45.8 - 14.2) | 100.0% | Florida A&M |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Florida International at Louisville | -42.5 | Louisville by 33.4 (45.3 - 11.9) | 100.0% | Florida International |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Louisiana Tech at Kansas | -10.5 | Kansas by 0.4 (28.3 - 27.9) | 55.2% | Louisiana Tech |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Marshall at Virginia Tech | -9 | Virginia Tech by 14.9 (29.5 - 14.6) | 84.7% | Virginia Tech |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CSS | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | 4 | Florida Atlantic by 0.8 (19.8 - 19.0) | 56.2% | Florida Atlantic |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | North Carolina at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 12.1 (36.9 - 24.8) | 80.0% | Georgia Tech |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | San Jose State at Minnesota | -3.5 | Minnesota by 3.3 (16.5 - 13.2) | 62.2% | San Jose State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Toledo at Central Michigan | 13 | Toledo by 7.5 (37.4 - 29.9) | 71.3% | Central Michigan |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Vanderbilt at Massachusetts | 32 | Vanderbilt by 20.9 (38.9 - 18.0) | 93.3% | Massachusetts |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Wake Forest at Army | 3 | Wake Forest by 1.6 (26.3 - 24.7) | 58.3% | Army |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Western Michigan at Iowa | -17 | Iowa by 16.8 (28.9 - 12.1) | 87.7% | Western Michigan |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | North Texas at Georgia | -33 | Georgia by 23.3 (39.5 - 16.3) | 96.0% | North Texas |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Duke | 4 | Pittsburgh by 2.6 (33.6 - 31.0) | 60.6% | Duke |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Tulane at Syracuse | -15 | Syracuse by 13.7 (26.0 - 12.4) | 82.8% | Tulane |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | 10.5 | Ball State by 6.2 (31.9 - 25.6) | 68.6% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Jacksonville State at Georgia State | 10.5 | Jacksonville State by 4.7 (27.8 - 23.1) | 65.2% | Georgia State |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Austin Peay at Ohio | -30 | Ohio by 13.7 (31.4 - 17.7) | 82.8% | Austin Peay |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | $Ulive | Northwestern State at UAB | -16 | UAB by 10.2 (28.9 - 18.7) | 76.6% | Northwestern State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho State at Washington | -49 | Washington by 40.1 (48.5 - 8.4) | 100.0% | Idaho State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | FSN Affiliates? | Rice at Houston | -3 | Houston by 4.7 (28.4 - 23.7) | 65.4% | Houston |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Arkansas at Rutgers | -1.5 | Rutgers by 3.0 (29.0 - 26.0) | 61.5% | Rutgers |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | South Dakota State at Nebraska | -20.5 | Nebraska by 12.1 (36.4 - 24.3) | 80.0% | South Dakota State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Murray State at Bowling Green | -26 | Bowling Green by 9.5 (34.4 - 24.9) | 75.2% | Murray State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Maine at Northwestern | -28 | Northwestern by 17.2 (36.3 - 19.1) | 88.3% | Maine |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Kent State at Penn State | -20.5 | Penn State by 20.6 (36.6 - 16.0) | 92.8% | Penn State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Michigan State at Notre Dame | -7 | Michigan State by 2.0 (11.1 - 9.1) | 59.2% | Michigan State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Purdue at Wisconsin | -24 | Wisconsin by 15.7 (32.9 - 17.2) | 86.0% | Purdue |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Tennessee at Florida | -17 | Florida by 19.1 (29.8 - 10.7) | 90.8% | Florida |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Utah State at USC | -7 | USC by 4.9 (12.3 - 7.4) | 65.9% | Utah State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | VMI at Virginia | -43 | Virginia by 28.1 (26.6 (- -1.5)) | 100.0% | VMI |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | West Virginia at Maryland | -5 | West Virginia by 2.4 (29.5 - 27.1) | 60.1% | West Virginia |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Cincinnati at Miami-OH | 23 | Cincinnati by 19.6 (26.6 - 6.9) | 91.6% | Miami-OH |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | UL-Monroe at Baylor | -29 | Baylor by 24.1 (45.1 - 21.0) | 96.9% | UL-Monroe |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at Memphis | 3.5 | Arkansas State by 5.4 (34.0 - 28.6) | 66.9% | Arkansas State |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bethune-Cookman at Florida State | -40 | Florida State by 28.2 (45.2 - 17.0) | 100.0% | Bethune-Cookman |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | (local) | The Citadel at Old Dominion | -17.5 | Old Dominion by 4.6 (27.0 - 22.4) | 65.2% | The Citadel |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Lafayette at Akron | 7 | UL-Lafayette by 2.0 (31.6 - 29.6) | 59.1% | Akron |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Arizona State at Stanford | -7.5 | Stanford by 12.6 (53.9 - 41.3) | 80.8% | Stanford |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Colorado State at Alabama | -40 | Alabama by 30.5 (55.8 - 25.3) | 100.0% | Colorado State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois | -14 | Northern Illinois by 16.4 (40.1 - 23.7) | 87.1% | Northern Illinois |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Savannah State at Miami-FL | -60 | Miami-FL by 38.7 (39.6 - 1.0) | 100.0% | Savannah State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Morgan State at Western Kentucky | -33 | Western Kentucky by 23.2 (38.1 - 14.9) | 95.9% | Morgan State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | SMU at Texas A&M | -29 | Texas A&M by 18.0 (39.0 - 21.0) | 89.3% | SMU |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FSN Affiliates? | Texas State at Texas Tech | -27 | Texas Tech by 17.3 (29.4 - 12.1) | 88.4% | Texas State |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Oregon State at San Diego State | 11 | Oregon State by 10.8 (34.8 - 23.9) | 77.7% | San Diego State |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Troy at Mississippi State | -14 | Mississippi State by 10.1 (40.9 - 30.8) | 76.4% | Troy |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | ESPN | Auburn at LSU | -17.5 | LSU by 15.0 (33.9 - 19.0) | 84.8% | Auburn |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Kansas State at Texas | -5.5 | Texas by 0.8 (36.0 - 35.1) | 56.3% | Kansas State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Michigan at Connecticut | 18 | Michigan by 8.7 (27.8 - 19.1) | 73.7% | Connecticut |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | BTN | Missouri at Indiana | 2 | Missouri by 1.0 (34.2 - 33.2) | 56.8% | Indiana |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | FCSA | UTSA at UTEP | 1.5 | UTEP by 3.5 (37.3 - 33.8) | 62.7% | UTEP |
| Sat | 8:05 PM | MWC Video | Hawaii at Nevada | -10 | Nevada by 3.2 (16.2 - 12.9) | 62.0% | Hawaii |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | Western Illinois at UNLV | -12.5 | UNLV by 12.4 (31.0 - 18.7) | 80.5% | Western Illinois | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Utah at BYU | -7 | BYU by 5.5 (27.5 - 22.0) | 67.1% | Utah |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPNU | Wyoming at Air Force | 4 | Wyoming by 4.0 (35.8 - 31.8) | 63.9% | Wyoming |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | Idaho at Washington State | -31 | Washington State by 15.6 (31.9 - 16.3) | 85.8% | Idaho |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | New Mexico State at UCLA | -42 | UCLA by 30.3 (48.7 - 18.4) | 100.0% | New Mexico State |
OLD METHOD
Games in bold are ones in which New and Old methods agree.
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | Prediction | Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Clemson at NC State | 14.5 | Clemson by 9.0 | NC State | |
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | Prediction | Pick | Different? |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | Boise State at Fresno State | -3 | Boise State by 3.9 | Boise State | |
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | Prediction | Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Florida International at Louisville | -42.5 | Louisville by 46.2 | Louisville | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Louisiana Tech at Kansas | -10.5 | Louisiana Tech by 1.0 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Marshall at Virginia Tech | -9 | Virginia Tech by 17.1 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic | 4 | Middle Tennessee by 0.3 | Florida Atlantic | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | North Carolina at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 14.8 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | San Jose State at Minnesota | -3.5 | Minnesota by 3.5 | San Jose State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Toledo at Central Michigan | 13 | Toledo by 12.5 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Vanderbilt at Massachusetts | 32 | Vanderbilt by 31.9 | Massachusetts | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Wake Forest at Army | 3 | Wake Forest by 3.7 | Wake Forest | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Western Michigan at Iowa | -17 | Iowa by 22.6 | Iowa | XXX |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | North Texas at Georgia | -33 | Georgia by 32.5 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Pittsburgh at Duke | 4 | Pittsburgh by 5.1 | Pittsburgh | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Tulane at Syracuse | -15 | Syracuse by 17.7 | Syracuse | XXX |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Ball State at Eastern Michigan | 10.5 | Ball State by 10.2 | Eastern Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Rice at Houston | -3 | Houston by 6.0 | Houston | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Arkansas at Rutgers | -1.5 | Rutgers by 3.2 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Kent State at Penn State | -20.5 | Penn State by 27.0 | Penn State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Michigan State at Notre Dame | -7 | Michigan State by 4.3 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Purdue at Wisconsin | -24 | Wisconsin by 21.0 | Purdue | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Tennessee at Florida | -17 | Florida by 26.3 | Florida | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Utah State at USC | -7 | USC by 6.0 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | West Virginia at Maryland | -5 | West Virginia by 3.4 | West Virginia | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Cincinnati at Miami-OH | 23 | Cincinnati by 30.8 | Cincinnati | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | UL-Monroe at Baylor | -29 | Baylor by 29.3 | Baylor | XXX |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | Arkansas State at Memphis | 3.5 | Arkansas State by 9.3 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | UL-Lafayette at Akron | 7 | UL-Lafayette by 4.2 | Akron | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Arizona State at Stanford | -7.5 | Stanford by 15.8 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Colorado State at Alabama | -40 | Alabama by 46.6 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | SMU at Texas A&M | -29 | Texas A&M by 23.9 | SMU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Texas State at Texas Tech | -27 | Texas Tech by 23.7 | Texas State | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Oregon State at San Diego State | 11 | Oregon State by 16.9 | Oregon State | XXX |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Troy at Mississippi State | -14 | Mississippi State by 12.7 | Troy | |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | Auburn at LSU | -17.5 | LSU by 22.2 | LSU | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Kansas State at Texas | -5.5 | Kansas State by 0.2 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Michigan at Connecticut | 18 | Michigan by 14.8 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Missouri at Indiana | 2 | Missouri by 2.8 | Missouri | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UTSA at UTEP | 1.5 | UTEP by 3.7 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 8:05 PM | Hawaii at Nevada | -10 | Nevada by 2.8 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | Utah at BYU | -7 | BYU by 6.3 | Utah | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | Wyoming at Air Force | 4 | Wyoming by 6.9 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Idaho at Washington State | -31 | Washington State by 22.0 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | New Mexico State at UCLA | -42 | UCLA by 41.4 | New Mexico State |
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