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So things took an interesting turn in Week 2.
Again, I'm using two different methods for picks this year. The old method is based on what is basically an anchored scale between the best team in the country (according to the F/+ rankings) and the worst; the new method is far more statistically sound but likely requires a larger sample and a few weeks of separation between the best and worst teams to become effective. Since I view the weekly picks post more as an experiment than a way for you to make money, this is basically an ongoing test.
In Week 1, old trumped new. In Week 2, the reverse happened. (Remember: New picks FBS vs .FCS games, too, and Old does not.)
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Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) -
Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) -
TOTAL
New: 78-70-2 (53%)
Old: 46-40 (53%)
Actually, there are a couple more things I wanted to be tracking:
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Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
TOTAL: 28-19 (60%) -
New Method, FBS vs. FCS Games
Week 1: 17-13 (57%)
Week 2: 23-9-2 (71%)
TOTAL: 40-22-2 (64%)
Vegas sets lines that will get equal action on both sides, so I guess it would make sense that the lines will be artificially high in favor of the big team in FBS vs. FCS games -- the average bettor probably doesn't know much difference between a team like Illinois State and a team like Idaho State or probably assumes that there's still a difference between a bad FBS team and a good FCS when there's really not.
So keep that in mind as we move forward, I guess.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | TCU at Texas Tech | 3 | TCU by 3.6 (29.6 - 26.0) | 63.0% | TCU |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Troy at Arkansas State | -8 | Arkansas State by 8.7 (38.8 - 30.1) | 73.7% | Arkansas State |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Tulane at Louisiana Tech | -7 | Louisiana Tech by 11.9 (36.4 - 24.5) | 79.7% | Louisiana Tech |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Air Force at Boise State | -24 | Boise State by 23.1 (45.7 - 22.6) | 95.8% | Air Force |
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Akron at Michigan | -37 | Michigan by 31.8 (43.6 - 11.8) | 100.0% | Akron |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Bowling Green at Indiana | -3 | Bowling Green by 0.5 (36.1 - 35.5) | 55.6% | Bowling Green |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | RSPI | Georgia State at West Virginia | -40 | West Virginia by 28.1 (39.9 - 11.8) | 100.0% | Georgia State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Louisville at Kentucky | 14.5 | Louisville by 14.8 (36.5 - 21.6) | 84.6% | Louisville |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Stanford at Army | 29 | Stanford by 26.7 (45.8 - 19.1) | 99.3% | Army |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Tulsa at Oklahoma | -24.5 | Oklahoma by 23.5 (27.4 - 4.0) | 96.2% | Tulsa |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | UCLA at Nebraska | -4.5 | Nebraska by 6.7 (42.8 - 36.1) | 69.6% | Nebraska |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Virginia Tech at East Carolina | 7.5 | Virginia Tech by 8.3 (26.2 - 17.9) | 72.9% | Virginia Tech |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Western Illinois at Minnesota | -24 | Minnesota by 21.7 (34.0 - 12.4) | 94.1% | Western Illinois |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | ESPN3 | Southern Miss at Arkansas | -22.5 | Arkansas by 14.9 (31.4 - 16.4) | 84.8% | Southern Miss |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | New Mexico at Pittsburgh | -22 | Pittsburgh by 17.9 (43.4 - 25.5) | 89.2% | New Mexico |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at Wake Forest | -3.5 | Wake Forest by 1.8 (20.2 - 18.4) | 58.7% | UL-Monroe |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Rutgers | -27.5 | Rutgers by 18.9 (33.8 - 14.9) | 90.7% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Fordham at Temple | -21 | Temple by 12.4 (32.1 - 19.8) | 80.5% | Fordham |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Pac-12 | Fresno State at Colorado | 10 | Fresno State by 9.3 (31.3 - 22.0) | 74.8% | Colorado |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | BTN | Youngstown State at Michigan State | -25.5 | Michigan State by 23.1 (14.3 - -8.8) | 95.8% | Youngstown State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Pac-12 | Boston College at USC | -14 | USC by 12.9 (13.7 - 0.7) | 81.5% | Boston College |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Alabama at Texas A&M | 8 | Alabama by 7.6 (23.8 - 16.2) | 71.5% | Texas A&M |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | MWC Video | Cal Poly-SLO at Colorado State | -9.5 | Cal Poly-SLO by 2.0 (22.6 - 20.5) | 59.2% | Cal Poly-SLO |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Delaware at Navy | -16 | Navy by 10.2 (37.6 - 27.4) | 76.6% | Delaware |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Georgia Tech at Duke | 9 | Georgia Tech by 10.2 (30.7 - 20.5) | 76.5% | Georgia Tech |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Nevada at Florida State | -33.5 | Florida State by 28.4 (56.2 - 27.9) | 100.0% | Nevada |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Stony Brook at Buffalo | -13.5 | Stony Brook by 3.5 (31.1 - 27.5) | 62.7% | Stony Brook |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Tennessee at Oregon | -28 | Oregon by 22.0 (44.8 - 22.7) | 94.6% | Tennessee |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FSN affiliates? | Ball State at North Texas | 3 | Ball State by 1.7 (29.8 - 28.2) | 58.3% | North Texas |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Northern Colorado at Wyoming | -26.5 | Wyoming by 9.1 (34.9 - 25.9) | 74.4% | Northern Colorado | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | Wagner at Syracuse | -28 | Syracuse by 15.3 (31.3 - 16.0) | 85.3% | Wagner |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Idaho | 28.5 | Northern Illinois by 20.7 (36.9 - 16.2) | 93.0% | Idaho | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Bethune-Cookman at Florida International | 3 | Bethune-Cookman by 5.6 (24.5 - 18.9) | 67.3% | Bethune-Cookman | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | BTN | Central Florida at Penn State | -6 | Penn State by 4.2 (13.5 - 9.3) | 64.2% | Central Florida |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Howard at Old Dominion | Old Dominion by 18.2 (33.0 - 14.7) | 89.7% | Old Dominion | ||
| Sat | 6:00 PM | FS1 | Iowa at Iowa State | 2.5 | Iowa by 3.2 (27.7 - 24.5) | 61.9% | Iowa |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | BTN | Washington vs Illinois | 10 | Washington by 10.0 (35.0 - 25.0) | 76.2% | Illinois |
| Sat | 6:30 PM | Pac-12 | Southern Utah at Washington State | -21.5 | Washington State by 6.1 (24.8 - 18.8) | 68.3% | Southern Utah |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Washington at Toledo | -7.5 | Toledo by 6.8 (29.6 - 22.8) | 69.9% | Eastern Washington |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Florida Atlantic at South Florida | -13 | South Florida by 13.8 (20.8 - 7.0) | 82.9% | South Florida |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Kent State at LSU | -36.5 | LSU by 26.8 (37.8 - 11.0) | 99.5% | Kent State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Massachusetts at Kansas State | -39 | Kansas State by 29.7 (41.1 - 11.4) | 100.0% | Massachusetts | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CSS | Memphis at Middle Tennessee | -7.5 | Middle Tennessee by 7.7 (26.5 - 18.8) | 71.7% | Middle Tennessee |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Mississippi State at Auburn | -6 | Auburn by 3.8 (23.4 - 19.6) | 63.3% | Mississippi State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Nicholls State at UL-Lafayette | -26 | UL-Lafayette by 15.5 (33.3 - 17.8) | 85.6% | Nicholls State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northwestern State at Cincinnati | -30.5 | Cincinnati by 22.4 (38.5 - 16.1) | 95.0% | Northwestern State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Ohio State at California | 15.5 | Ohio State by 14.7 (33.2 - 18.6) | 84.4% | California |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | -14 | South Carolina by 10.3 (37.0 - 26.7) | 76.7% | Vanderbilt |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | CBSSN | Kansas at Rice | -7 | Rice by 13.5 (37.5 - 24.0) | 82.4% | Rice |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | FSN affiliates? | Lamar at Oklahoma State | -47 | Oklahoma State by 42.3 (48.9 - 6.7) | 100.0% | Lamar |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Maryland at Connecticut | 7 | Connecticut by 3.3 (24.2 - 20.9) | 62.2% | Connecticut |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Western Kentucky at South Alabama | 10 | Western Kentucky by 1.9 (30.9 - 29.0) | 58.9% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN News | Marshall at Ohio | 8.5 | Marshall by 3.5 (31.4 - 27.9) | 62.6% | Ohio |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Purdue | 21 | Notre Dame by 15.0 (35.5 - 20.5) | 84.9% | Purdue |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | LHN | Ole Miss at Texas | -2.5 | Texas by 6.0 (42.5 - 36.5) | 68.2% | Texas |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | UTEP at New Mexico State | 5 | UTEP by 2.5 (36.9 - 34.4) | 60.4% | New Mexico State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Weber State at Utah State | -36 | Utah State by 21.2 (37.8 - 16.6) | 93.6% | Weber State |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | BTN | Western Michigan at Northwestern | -30 | Northwestern by 18.8 (38.2 - 19.3) | 90.5% | Western Michigan |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | MWC Video | Central Michigan at UNLV | -7 | Central Michigan by 0.1 (25.2 - 25.1) | 54.5% | Central Michigan |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | FS1 | Oregon State at Utah | -3.5 | Oregon State by 0.5 (38.0 - 37.5) | 55.4% | Oregon State |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Pac-12 | UTSA at Arizona | -26 | Arizona by 26.7 (40.2 - 13.5) | 99.4% | Arizona |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Wisconsin at Arizona State | -6 | Wisconsin by 3.5 (21.7 - 18.2) | 62.6% | Wisconsin |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | TCU at Texas Tech | 3 | TCU by 6.3 | TCU | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Troy at Arkansas State | -8 | Arkansas State by 9.9 | Arkansas State | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Tulane at Louisiana Tech | -7 | Louisiana Tech by 14.1 | Louisiana Tech | |
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Air Force at Boise State | -24 | Boise State by 30.0 | Boise State | XXX |
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Akron at Michigan | -37 | Michigan by 43.2 | Michigan | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Bowling Green at Indiana | -3 | Bowling Green by 2.1 | Bowling Green | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Georgia State at West Virginia | -40 | West Virginia by 36.3 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Louisville at Kentucky | 14.5 | Louisville by 23.0 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Stanford at Army | 29 | Stanford by 37.9 | Stanford | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Tulsa at Oklahoma | -24.5 | Oklahoma by 28.8 | Oklahoma | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | UCLA at Nebraska | -4.5 | Nebraska by 7.3 | Nebraska | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Virginia Tech at East Carolina | 7.5 | Virginia Tech by 12.6 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Southern Miss at Arkansas | -22.5 | Arkansas by 20.6 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | New Mexico at Pittsburgh | -22 | Pittsburgh by 24.4 | Pittsburgh | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | UL-Monroe at Wake Forest | -3.5 | Wake Forest by 1.2 | UL-Monroe | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Rutgers | -27.5 | Rutgers by 28.0 | Rutgers | XXX |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Fresno State at Colorado | 10 | Fresno State by 14.0 | Fresno State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Boston College at USC | -14 | USC by 18.2 | USC | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Alabama at Texas A&M | 8 | Alabama by 12.1 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Georgia Tech at Duke | 9 | Georgia Tech by 14.7 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Nevada at Florida State | -33.5 | Florida State by 35.5 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Tennessee at Oregon | -28 | Oregon by 26.4 | Tennessee | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Ball State at North Texas | 3 | Ball State by 3.5 | Ball State | XXX |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Idaho | 28.5 | Northern Illinois by 30.7 | Northern Illinois | XXX |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Central Florida at Penn State | -6 | Penn State by 4.4 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Iowa at Iowa State | 2.5 | Iowa by 5.9 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Washington vs Illinois | 10 | Washington by 11.1 | Washington | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Florida Atlantic at South Florida | -13 | South Florida by 18.4 | South Florida | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Kent State at LSU | -36.5 | LSU by 37.2 | LSU | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Massachusetts at Kansas State | -39 | Kansas State by 41.6 | Kansas State | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Memphis at Middle Tennessee | -7.5 | Middle Tennessee by 10.0 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Mississippi State at Auburn | -6 | Auburn by 4.7 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Ohio State at California | 15.5 | Ohio State by 22.1 | Ohio State | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | -14 | South Carolina by 13.8 | Vanderbilt | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Kansas at Rice | -7 | Rice by 15.9 | Rice | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Maryland at Connecticut | 7 | Connecticut by 3.6 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Western Kentucky at South Alabama | 10 | Western Kentucky by 4.1 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Marshall at Ohio | 8.5 | Marshall by 5.5 | Ohio | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Notre Dame at Purdue | 21 | Notre Dame by 22.1 | Notre Dame | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Ole Miss at Texas | -2.5 | Texas by 7.0 | Texas | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UTEP at New Mexico State | 5 | UTEP by 5.1 | UTEP | XXX |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | Western Michigan at Northwestern | -30 | Northwestern by 23.3 | Western Michigan | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Central Michigan at UNLV | -7 | Central Michigan by 1.5 | Central Michigan | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Oregon State at Utah | -3.5 | Oregon State by 2.0 | Oregon State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | UTSA at Arizona | -26 | Arizona by 33.6 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Wisconsin at Arizona State | -6 | Wisconsin by 6.0 | Wisconsin |
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