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Recap of Last Week's Predictions
Last week, despite an FCS-driven hostile takeover the FBS, the model correctly predicted 76% of games. This week was significantly better, with the model correctly predicting 82.5% of games.
Year to date, the model has correctly predicted 79.2% of games.
Updated Regular Season Expected Wins
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | AAC | 7.59 | 7.82 | 8.05 | 3% |
| Cincinnati | AAC | 8.29 | 8.40 | 7.66 | -9% |
| Louisville | AAC | 7.41 | 8.16 | 7.60 | -7% |
| Rutgers | AAC | 7.65 | 7.84 | 7.56 | -4% |
| SMU | AAC | 6.54 | 5.05 | 5.87 | 16% |
| Houston | AAC | 5.21 | 6.86 | 5.83 | -15% |
| Connecticut | AAC | 6.61 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 80% |
| Memphis | AAC | 5.55 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 2% |
| South Florida | AAC | 5.62 | 5.62 | 4.62 | -18% |
| Temple | AAC | 5.48 | 4.94 | 4.43 | -10% |
On the strength of their scoring defense, UCF has climbed each of the last two weeks. The model is not impressed with Louisville, so it will be interesting to see whether the model or conventional wisdom holds true for the Cardinals this season. UConn rebounded somewhat after the model pummeled it for losing to Towson in Week 1.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | ACC | 9.62 | 9.28 | 9.70 | 5% |
| Clemson | ACC | 8.00 | 7.23 | 8.58 | 19% |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 7.39 | 7.63 | 7.82 | 2% |
| North Carolina | ACC | 7.74 | 6.38 | 7.70 | 21% |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.91 | 5.37 | 7.03 | 31% |
| Miami (Florida) | ACC | 6.04 | 6.95 | 6.95 | 0% |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 6.83 | 5.08 | 6.56 | 29% |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6.69 | 8.64 | 6.48 | -25% |
| Maryland | ACC | 5.53 | 7.34 | 6.27 | -15% |
| Duke | ACC | 5.52 | 7.38 | 6.21 | -16% |
| Syracuse | ACC | 6.83 | 5.71 | 6.09 | 7% |
| Virginia | ACC | 5.66 | 6.48 | 5.96 | -8% |
| Boston College | ACC | 5.21 | 5.85 | 5.60 | -4% |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4.30 | 5.79 | 4.37 | -25% |
Florida State and Clemson have been the big winners for the last two weeks in the ACC. Miami, coming off the 'upset' of Florida last week didn't gain any ground, as the model still favors the 'Noles and Tigers.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 7.46 | 8.34 | 8.46 | 1% |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7.27 | 7.95 | 7.66 | -4% |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.49 | 6.47 | 7.48 | 16% |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6.35 | 7.05 | 7.11 | 1% |
| TCU | Big 12 | 6.92 | 5.61 | 6.67 | 19% |
| Baylor | Big 12 | 6.68 | 8.16 | 6.65 | -19% |
| Texas | Big 12 | 6.60 | 7.57 | 6.38 | -16% |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | 6.31 | 6.01 | 5.52 | -8% |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.25 | 4.98 | 5.32 | 7% |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 4.64 | 20% |
Texas took a beating this week, both on the field and in the model. K-State rebounded after the beating following its loss to NDSU. Kansas padded its stats enough to earn an extra win in the model at the expense of South Dakota State. The model likes Oklahoma State a lot, but the SI story may be enough of a distractor to divert the Cowboys' attention away long enough for the Sooners to take the top spot next week.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 7.90 | 8.05 | 8.32 | 3% |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 7.80 | 7.55 | 8.30 | 10% |
| Michigan | Big Ten | 7.20 | 7.09 | 8.13 | 15% |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | 7.41 | 8.47 | 8.08 | -5% |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 7.79 | 6.99 | 8.01 | 15% |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | 8.03 | 8.36 | 7.80 | -7% |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | 7.62 | 7.44 | 7.38 | -1% |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.53 | 6.50 | 6.70 | 3% |
| Iowa | Big Ten | 5.88 | 5.33 | 5.47 | 3% |
| Purdue | Big Ten | 5.17 | 4.75 | 5.36 | 13% |
| Illinois | Big Ten | 4.41 | 5.19 | 5.35 | 3% |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 5.81 | 6.74 | 4.89 | -27% |
If we learned anything from Week 2 in the Big Ten, it's that Michigan is probably the team to beat in the Legends Division. With Notre Dame now at a 100% probability of victory in the model, Michigan's expected wins took a significant jump this week. Despite a powerful defense, and the extra weight that the model places on defense, Michigan State's offense remains so woeful that its expected win total dropped this week. Penn State was a big winner in expected wins this week, jumping more than a full game. Seven teams are within one expected win of each other. It may be the end of October before we have a clearer picture of who has the right stuff in the Big Ten this year.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | Pac 12 | 9.31 | 9.37 | 9.52 | 2% |
| Arizona State | Pac 12 | 8.23 | 7.54 | 7.80 | 3% |
| Stanford | Pac 12 | 7.29 | 7.03 | 7.67 | 9% |
| USC | Pac 12 | 7.85 | 8.13 | 7.50 | -8% |
| Washington | Pac 12 | 6.70 | 7.43 | 7.30 | -2% |
| Utah | Pac 12 | 5.92 | 6.55 | 6.91 | 6% |
| UCLA | Pac 12 | 6.76 | 7.26 | 6.87 | -5% |
| Oregon State | Pac 12 | 7.36 | 5.52 | 6.60 | 20% |
| Arizona | Pac 12 | 6.25 | 7.04 | 6.51 | -8% |
| California | Pac 12 | 4.94 | 4.29 | 5.07 | 18% |
| Washington State | Pac 12 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 11% |
| Colorado | Pac 12 | 2.49 | 4.81 | 3.58 | -26% |
Nearly everyone else in the Pac-12 is an afterthought to the model, although Stanford will likely climb over the next few weeks, having played just one game this year so far. Reality returned to Boulder this week, as the expected wins for Colorado fell back more than 1.3 after nearly doubling last week after it beat CSU.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 9.97 | 9.27 | 9.95 | 7% |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 8.74 | 8.49 | 8.92 | 5% |
| LSU | SEC | 7.75 | 7.57 | 8.33 | 10% |
| Georgia | SEC | 8.14 | 6.09 | 8.10 | 33% |
| Florida | SEC | 7.96 | 7.97 | 7.78 | -2% |
| South Carolina | SEC | 8.30 | 7.81 | 7.63 | -2% |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 8.16 | 6.19 | 7.36 | 19% |
| Mississippi | SEC | 6.53 | 6.99 | 7.08 | 1% |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 7.48 | 6.10 | 6.84 | 12% |
| Missouri | SEC | 5.64 | 6.95 | 6.15 | -11% |
| Auburn | SEC | 4.95 | 6.33 | 5.94 | -6% |
| Tennessee | SEC | 5.45 | 6.93 | 5.61 | -19% |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5.01 | 6.47 | 5.58 | -14% |
| Kentucky | SEC | 4.39 | 4.38 | 4.21 | -4% |
The top of the SEC chart will be settled on Saturday, when Alabama travels to A&M. In the meantime, Alabama remains the team to beat in the SEC (surprise, surprise, surprise!). Kentucky, to no one's surprise, continues its downward slide.
| Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Change from Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 8.81 | 8.01 | 9.13 | 14% |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 7.71 | 8.27 | 8.83 | 7% |
| Fresno State | MWC | 8.44 | 7.45 | 8.53 | 15% |
| Utah State | MWC | 8.79 | 7.08 | 8.12 | 15% |
| Ohio | MAC | 8.00 | 5.66 | 7.86 | 39% |
| Boise State | MWC | 8.22 | 5.77 | 7.62 | 32% |
| Tulsa | CUSA | 7.66 | 5.48 | 7.61 | 39% |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 7.13 | 7.06 | 7.56 | 7% |
| San Jose State | MWC | 8.26 | 7.99 | 7.54 | -6% |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 8.26 | 8.52 | 7.32 | -14% |
| East Carolina | CUSA | 6.43 | 6.76 | 6.60 | -2% |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 7.19 | 5.39 | 6.55 | 22% |
| Texas State | Sun Belt | 6.00 | 6.98 | 6.50 | -7% |
| Kent State | MAC | 6.76 | 7.52 | 6.47 | -14% |
| Ball State | MAC | 6.61 | 6.55 | 6.45 | -2% |
| UTSA | CUSA | 5.77 | 6.36 | 6.45 | 1% |
| Troy | Sun Belt | 6.03 | 6.13 | 6.36 | 4% |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 6.48 | 7.11 | 6.35 | -11% |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 7.15 | 5.53 | 6.29 | 14% |
| Rice | CUSA | 5.90 | 6.86 | 6.17 | -10% |
| North Texas | CUSA | 6.37 | 7.34 | 6.08 | -17% |
| Toledo | MAC | 6.48 | 5.66 | 6.07 | 7% |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 7.29 | 5.52 | 5.78 | 5% |
| San Diego State | MWC | 7.29 | 5.17 | 5.72 | 11% |
| Florida International | CUSA | 5.81 | 4.62 | 5.64 | 22% |
| Air Force | MWC | 6.03 | 7.23 | 5.63 | -22% |
| Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 5.79 | 4.35 | 5.48 | 26% |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 5.66 | 6.49 | 5.36 | -18% |
| New Mexico | MWC | 5.26 | 5.27 | 5.28 | 0% |
| Nevada | MWC | 6.02 | 6.48 | 5.27 | -19% |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | 5.05 | 4.96 | 5.19 | 5% |
| Buffalo | MAC | 5.32 | 5.51 | 5.18 | -6% |
| Marshall | CUSA | 5.62 | 7.15 | 5.14 | -28% |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 6.58 | 5.80 | 5.14 | -11% |
| Wyoming | MWC | 5.37 | 5.41 | 5.08 | -6% |
| Colorado State | MWC | 5.58 | 5.23 | 4.94 | -5% |
| Akron | MAC | 4.85 | 4.83 | 4.87 | 1% |
| UTEP | CUSA | 4.85 | 4.22 | 4.61 | 9% |
| UAB | CUSA | 4.84 | 4.88 | 4.44 | -9% |
| UNLV | MWC | 4.72 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 1% |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 3.70 | 5.37 | 4.01 | -25% |
| Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 4.57 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 10% |
| Hawaii | MWC | 3.45 | 4.03 | 3.43 | -15% |
| Tulane | CUSA | 3.72 | 5.88 | 3.39 | -42% |
| Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 3.80 | 4.24 | 3.26 | -23% |
| Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.75 | 4.27 | 2.46 | -42% |
| Massachusetts | MAC | 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.13 | -40% |
For the Non-AQ conferences, Northern Illinois remains the most likely to crash the BCS party this year. Fellow MAC member Bowling Green may have something to say about that though.
Week 3 Predictions
Predicted winner is in bold. Note that the model is reasonably confident of an A&M victory on Saturday. I won't fudge the predictions, but if there's a prediction this week that I'm uncomfortable with, it's this one. The Arizona State over Wisconsin prediction, though it is much closer, is another I'm not so sure about.
| Visitor | Home | Visitor P(win) | Home P(win) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | Arkansas State | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Air Force | Boise State | 0.13 | 0.87 |
| Akron | Michigan | 0.16 | 0.84 |
| Alabama | Texas A&M | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Ball State | North Texas | 0.289 | 0.713 |
| Bethune-Cookman | Florida International | 0.062 | 0.940 |
| Boston College | USC | 0.36 | 0.64 |
| Bowling Green | Indiana | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Cal Poly | Colorado State | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| UCF | Penn State | 0.36 | 0.64 |
| Central Michigan | UNLV | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| Delaware | Navy | 0.02 | 0.98 |
| Eastern Michigan | Rutgers | 0.12 | 0.88 |
| Eastern Washington | Toledo | 0.20 | .80 |
| Florida Atlantic | South Florida | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Fordham | Temple | 0.06 | 0.94 |
| Fresno State | Colorado | 0.87 | 0.13 |
| Georgia State | West Virginia | 0.08 | 0.92 |
| Georgia Tech | Duke | 0.69 | 0.31 |
| Iowa | Iowa State | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| Kansas | Rice | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| Kent State | LSU | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| Lamar | Oklahoma State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Wake Forest | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| Louisville | Kentucky | 0.66 | 0.34 |
| Marshall | Ohio | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| Maryland | Connecticut | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Massachusetts | Kansas State | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Memphis | Middle Tennessee | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| Mississippi | Texas | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Mississippi State | Auburn | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Nevada | Florida State | 0.12 | 0.87 |
| New Mexico | Pittsburgh | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| Nicholls State | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Northern Colorado | Wyoming | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Northern Illinois | Idaho | 0.82 | 0.18 |
| Northwestern State | Cincinnati | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Notre Dame | Purdue | 0.69 | 0.31 |
| Ohio State | California | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| Oregon State | Utah | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| Southern Mississippi | Arkansas | 0.26 | 0.74 |
| Southern Utah | Washington State | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| Stanford | Army | 0.72 | 0.28 |
| Stony Brook | Buffalo | 0.05 | 0.95 |
| Tennessee | Oregon | 0.14 | 0.86 |
| TCU | Texas Tech | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| UTEP | New Mexico State | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| UTSA | Arizona | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| Tulane | Louisiana Tech | 0.07 | 0.93 |
| Tulsa | Oklahoma | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| UCLA | Nebraska | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Vanderbilt | South Carolina | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Virginia Tech | East Carolina | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Wagner | Syracuse | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Washington | Illinois | 0.68 | 0.32 |
| Weber State | Utah State | 0.01 | 0.99 |
| Western Illinois | Minnesota | 0.03 | 0.97 |
| Western Kentucky | South Alabama | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| Western Michigan | Northwestern | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Wisconsin | Arizona State | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| Youngstown State | Michigan State | 0.00 | 1.00 |
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