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Long story short: If you want F/+ picks as they were delivered last year, skip to the bottom table. But since I view these picks less as a chance to make money and more as a chance to tinker (I've said many times before that if you try to make money off of these picks, that's not my fault -- I'm not trying to), I'm including two sets of picks.
The top set of picks here is something new I'm trying. It's more statistically sound than the other method, but I fear it's not going to be incredibly useful until the projections fade out and the real numbers fade in. Projections are, by nature, pretty conservative. Alabama finished last season with an F/+ rating of plus-50.6% and starts this season, still No. 1, at plus-37.8%; on the other side, NMSU finished second-to-last at minus-35.6% last year and starts this year at minus-24.4 percent. And while the top picks below are based quite soundly on the F/+ ratings, they're based on the range from the end-of-season ratings.
In other words, I think these picks kind of stink. Because of the range issue, you see that almost every FCS team below is picked to beat the spread, often quite handily. And while that will almost certainly end up being true for a lot of teams (say, half, maybe, since we're dealing with the spread here?), it's too skewed to trust. I'm including them here, if nothing else, just to see if they shift toward being more and more correct, and at some point overtake the original method of picks below. As you see, I'm attempting a lot of cool things this year -- FCS games, % chance of winning, predicted offense and defense, etc. -- but I don't think they're going to be valid just yet. Give it a few weeks.
That's about as big a disclaimer as I can possibly give.
| Day | Time | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning (Straight up) |
Pick | |
| Thu | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Liberty at Kent St. | -18.5 | Kent St. by 10.5 (33.7 - 23.2) | 77.1% | Liberty | |
| Thu | 6:00 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | UNC at S. Carolina | -11.5 | S.C. by 11.8 (34.7 - 22.8) | 79.6% | S. Carolina | |
| Thu | 6:30 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Presbyterian at Wake Forest | -37.5 | Wake by 25.0 (34.3 - 9.4) | 97.8% | Presbyterian | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Non-Con | Akron at UCF | -23 | UCF by 21.9 (41.5 - 19.6) | 94.4% | Akron | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Illinois St. at Ball St. | -11.5 | Ball St. by 5.7 (33.5 - 27.8) | 67.5% | Illinois St. | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | BTN | 1-AA | Indiana St. at Indiana | -24.5 | Indiana by 8.7 (37.6 - 29.0) | 73.6% | Indiana St. | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | Tulsa at Bowling Green | -3.5 | BGSU by 1.2 (27.2 - 26.0) | 57.2% | Tulsa | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | BTN | Non-Con | UNLV at Minnesota | -14 | Minnesota by 10.0 (31.0 - 21.0) | 76.2% | UNLV | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | S. Utah at S. Alabama | -17.5 | S. Utah by 0.0 (24.6 - 24.6) | 54.3% | S. Utah | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Towson at UConn | -16.5 | UConn by 10.0 (28.6 - 18.5) | 76.3% | Towson | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | $Ulive | 1-AA | W. Carolina at MTSU | -32.5 | MTSU by 11.6 (34.1 - 22.5) | 79.2% | WCU | |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | $Ulive | 1-AA | Jackson St. at Tulane | -25 | Tulane by 12.0 (29.9 - 17.9) | 79.8% | Jackson St. | |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | FS1 | Non-Con | Utah St. at Utah | -3 | Utah by 2.3 (24.4 - 22.1) | 59.8% | Utah St. | |
| Thu | 9:15 PM | ESPN | Conf | Ole Miss at Vandy | 3 | Ole Miss by 0.9 (27.2 - 26.3) | 56.5% | Vandy | |
| Thu | 10:00 PM | MWC Video | 1-AA | Sacramento St. at SJSU | -18.5 | SJSU by 14.9 (34.2 - 19.3) | 84.7% | Sacramento St. | |
| Thu | 10:30 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | Rutgers at Fresno St. | -10 | Fresno St. by 3.3 (23.3 - 19.9) | 62.3% | Rutgers | |
| Thu | 11:00 PM | CBSSN | Non-Con | USC at Hawaii | 24 | USC by 17.5 (32.9 - 15.5) | 88.6% | Hawaii | |
| Day | Time | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | 1-AA | Morgan St. at Army | -32 | Army by 20.8 (38.8 - 18.0) | 93.0% | Morgan St. | |
| Fri | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Samford at Georgia St. | 6 | Samford by 8.3 (30.3 - 22.0) | 72.8% | Samford | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | FAU at Miami | -32 | Miami by 19.5 (37.6 - 18.0) | 91.5% | FAU | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | Texas Tech at SMU | 4.5 | Tech by 2.3 (29.4 - 27.1) | 59.8% | SMU | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | BTN | Non-Con | WMU at Michigan St. | -28 | State by 23.5 (37.5 - 14.0) | 96.3% | WMU | |
| Fri | 8:30 PM | FS1 | 1-AA | N. Dakota St. at Kansas St. | -13 | KSU by 13.8 (32.6 - 18.8) | 82.9% | KSU | |
| Fri | 8:30 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Southern U. at Houston | -40 | Houston by 31.9 (41.2 - 9.3) | 100.0% | Southern | |
| Fri | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | 1-AA | NAU at Arizona | -33.5 | Arizona by 19.4 (40.0 - 20.5) | 91.3% | NAU | |
| Day | Time | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Non-Con | Buffalo at Ohio St. | -35 | Ohio St. by 25.8 (40.0 - 14.2) | 98.6% | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Elon at Georgia Tech | -46.5 | Tech by 20.9 (41.1 - 20.2) | 93.2% | Elon | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Non-Con | UMass at Wisconsin | -44.5 | Wisconsin by 35.3 (41.1 - 5.8) | 100.0% | UMass | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | Purdue at Cincinnati | -10.5 | Cincinnati by 13.4 (32.5 - 19.1) | 82.3% | Cincinnati | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | 1-AA | SIU at Illinois | -17.5 | Illinois by 1.8 (26.3 - 24.6) | 58.6% | SIU | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | 1-AA | Villanova at BC | -17.5 | BC by 7.5 (29.1 - 21.5) | 71.4% | Villanova | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | 1-AA | William & Mary at West Virginia | -33 | WVU by 20.0 (40.3 - 20.3) | 92.1% | W&M | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | Non-Con | Toledo at Florida | -24 | Florida by 20.1 (34.0 - 13.9) | 92.2% | Toledo | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | FSN | Non-Con | FIU at Maryland | -23 | Maryland by 7.2 (27.1 - 19.9) | 70.7% | FIU | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ACC Network | Non-Con | La. Tech at NC St. | -14 | NC St. by 4.9 (38.8 - 33.8) | 65.8% | La. Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | Rice at Texas A&M | -27 | A&M by 23.5 (43.3 - 19.9) | 96.2% | Rice | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | RSRM | 1-AA | Colgate at Air Force | -27.5 | Air Force by 8.1 (34.0 - 25.9) | 72.4% | Colgate | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | BYU at Virginia | 1 | BYU by 5.7 (29.3 - 23.6) | 67.4% | BYU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Non-Con | CMU at Michigan | -31.5 | Michigan by 18.1 (35.1 - 17.0) | 89.5% | CMU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Non-Con | N. Illinois at Iowa | -3 | Iowa by 2.6 (27.7 - 25.1) | 60.5% | NIU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | 1-AA | N. Iowa at Iowa St. | -9.5 | Iowa St. by 7.3 (29.1 - 21.8) | 70.8% | UNI | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Non-Con | Oklahoma St. vs Mississippi St. | 13 | OSU by 12.6 (36.7 - 24.0) | 81.0% | MSU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Non-Con | Syracuse vs Penn St. | -8.5 | PSU by 9.0 (34.8 - 25.8) | 74.3% | PSU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Non-Con | Temple at Notre Dame | -29.5 | Notre Dame by 20.6 (37.0 - 16.4) | 92.8% | Temple | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | NC Central at Duke | -32.5 | Duke by 14.5 (38.1 - 23.6) | 84.1% | NC Central | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | 1-AA | Nicholls St. at Oregon | -58.5 | Oregon by 51.7 (51.7 - 0.0) | 100.0% | Nicholls St. | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS S. | Non-Con | UL-Lafayette at Arkansas | -10.5 | Arkansas by 8.7 (33.5 - 24.8) | 73.6% | Louisiana | |
| Sat | 5:30 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | Virginia Tech vs Alabama | -21 | Alabama by 19.2 (32.7 - 13.5) | 91.0% | Va. Tech | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Austin Peay at Tennessee | -51 | Tennessee by 29.1 (42.7 - 13.7) | 100.0% | Austin Peay | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | 1-AA | EWU at Oregon St. | -27 | Oregon St. by 21.0 (37.3 - 16.3) | 93.3% | EWU | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | Howard at EMU | -16.5 | EMU by 11.4 (30.5 - 19.1) | 78.8% | Howard | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | UAPB at Arkansas St. | -25.5 | ASU by 19.0 (39.7 - 20.7) | 90.8% | UAPB | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | $Ulive | Non-Con | Idaho at N. Texas | -15 | UNT by 11.9 (32.3 - 20.4) | 79.6% | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | 1-AA | McNeese St. at USF | -20.5 | USF by 9.7 (31.8 - 22.1) | 75.6% | McNeese | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Non-Con | Miami (Ohio) at Marshall | -19.5 | Marshall by 12.3 (44.7 - 32.4) | 80.3% | Miami-OH | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | PPV/ESPN3 | 1-AA | Murray St. at Missouri | -38 | Missouri by 18.8 (34.2 - 15.4) | 90.5% | Murray St. | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | FCSA | Non-Con | ODU at ECU | -15 | ECU by 7.2 (31.0 - 23.7) | 70.8% | ODU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | $Ulive | Non-Con | Texas St. at Southern Miss | -9 | S. Miss by 5.6 (30.4 - 24.7) | 67.4% | Texas St. | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Non-Con | UAB at Troy | -3.5 | Troy by 6.7 (39.7 - 33.0) | 69.6% | Troy | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | PPV | Non-Con | ULM at Oklahoma | -21 | OU by 21.3 (44.4 - 23.1) | 93.7% | OU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Non-Con | Washington St. at Auburn | -16 | Auburn by 12.7 (29.9 - 17.2) | 81.0% | Wazzu | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN News | Non-Con | WKU vs Kentucky | -4.5 | Kentucky by 0.4 (26.1 - 25.7) | 55.2% | WKU | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | FCSC | 1-AA | Wofford at Baylor | -29.5 | Baylor by 17.0 (42.1 - 25.0) | 88.0% | Wofford | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | MWC Video | 1-AA | EIU at SDSU | -14 | SDSU by 12.0 (32.5 - 20.5) | 79.8% | EIU | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Non-Con | Georgia at Clemson | 1.5 | Georgia by 0.2 (35.6 - 35.5) | 54.7% | Clemson | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | LHN | Non-Con | NMSU at Texas | -42 | Texas by 33.6 (43.8 - 10.1) | 100.0% | NMSU | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | KASY | Non-Con | UTSA at New Mexico | -3.5 | UTSA by 1.9 (32.8 - 30.9) | 58.8% | UTSA | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | BTN | Non-Con | Wyoming at Nebraska | -31 | Nebraska by 23.3 (43.5 - 20.1) | 96.1% | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | TCU vs LSU | -4.5 | LSU by 3.6 (22.3 - 18.7) | 62.8% | TCU | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | FS1 | Non-Con | Boise St. at Washington | -3.5 | Boise St. by 4.9 (27.0 - 22.0) | 65.8% | Boise St. | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Non-Con | Nevada at UCLA | -21 | UCLA by 10.6 (43.6 - 33.0) | 77.3% | Nevada | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Non-Con | Northwestern at California | 6 | NU by 3.7 (31.1 - 27.4) | 63.1% | California | |
| Day | Time | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick | |
| Sun | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Non-Con | Ohio at Louisville | -21 | Louisville by 16.6 (38.3 - 21.8) | 87.3% | Ohio | |
| Sun | 6:00 PM | CBSSN | Non-Con | Colorado St. vs Colorado | 3 | Colorado St. by 1.4 (25.8 - 24.4) | 57.7% | Colorado | |
| Day | Time | TV | Type | Game | Spread | Prediction | Chance of winning | Pick | |
| Mon | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Conf | Florida St. at Pittsburgh | 10.5 | FSU by 7.4 (28.4 - 21.0) | 71.1% | Pitt |
And now for the real picks, the ones that seem to get 52 percent right every year, the ones I'll continue to use for Seventh Day Adventure for the time being. The games with differences between the above picks and the below picks are marked with "XXX."
| Day | Time | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 6:00 PM | UNC at S.C. | -11.5 | S.C. by 14.9 | S.C. | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | Akron at UCF | -23 | UCF by 27.8 | UCF | XXX |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | Tulsa at Bowling Green | -3.5 | BGSU by 0.3 | Tulsa | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | UNLV at Minnesota | -14 | Minnesota by 12.8 | UNLV | |
| Thu | 8:00 PM | Utah State at Utah | -3 | Utah by 2.0 | Utah State | |
| Thu | 9:15 PM | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | 3 | Ole Miss by 2.4 | Vanderbilt | |
| Thu | 10:30 PM | Rutgers at Fresno State | -10 | FSU by 3.4 | Rutgers | |
| Thu | 11:00 PM | USC at Hawaii | 24 | USC by 26.1 | USC | XXX |
| Day | Time | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | FAU at Miami | -32 | Miami by 26.4 | FAU | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Texas Tech at SMU | 4.5 | Tech by 4.3 | SMU | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | WMU at Michigan State | -28 | State by 29.1 | MSU | XXX |
| Day | Time | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Buffalo at Ohio State | -35 | Ohio State by 33.2 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | UMass at Wisconsin | -44.5 | Wisconsin by 47.6 | Wisconsin | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Purdue at Cincinnati | -10.5 | Cincinnati by 17.1 | Cincinnati | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Toledo at Florida | -24 | Florida by 26.5 | Florida | XXX |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | FIU at Maryland | -23 | Maryland by 8.9 | FIU | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | La. Tech at NC State | -14 | NC State by 4.5 | La. Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Rice at Texas A&M | -27 | Texas A&M by 28.0 | Texas A&M | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BYU at Virginia | 1 | BYU by 8.4 | BYU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CMU at Michigan | -31.5 | Michigan by 26.0 | CMU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NIU at Iowa | -3 | Iowa by 2.4 | NIU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Oklahoma St. vs Miss. St. | 13 | OSU by 16.9 | OSU | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Syracuse vs Penn State | -8.5 | PSU by 11.0 | PSU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Temple at Notre Dame | -29.5 | Irish by 28.2 | Temple | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | UL-Lafayette at Arkansas | -10.5 | Arkansas by 11.1 | Arkansas | XXX |
| Sat | 5:30 PM | Virginia Tech vs Alabama | -21 | Alabama by 26.5 | Alabama | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Idaho at North Texas | -15 | North Texas by 15.4 | North Texas | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Miami-OH at Marshall | -19.5 | Marshall by 13.8 | Miami-OH | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ODU at ECU | -15 | ECU by 8.5 | ODU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Texas State at So. Miss | -9 | So. Miss by 7.0 | TSU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | UAB at Troy | -3.5 | Troy by 7.2 | Troy | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ULM at Oklahoma | -21 | Oklahoma by 27.0 | Oklahoma | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Wazzu at Auburn | -16 | Auburn by 17.8 | Auburn | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | WKU vs Kentucky | -4.5 | Kentucky by 0.5 | WKU | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Georgia at Clemson | 1.5 | Georgia by 1.4 | Clemson | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | NMSU at Texas | -42 | Texas by 46.8 | Texas | XXX |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UTSA at New Mexico | -3.5 | UTSA by 3.8 | UTSA | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Wyoming at Nebraska | -31 | Nebraska by 29.3 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | TCU vs LSU | -4.5 | LSU by 4.9 | LSU | XXX |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Boise State at Washington | -3.5 | Boise State by 8.1 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Nevada at UCLA | -21 | UCLA by 11.3 | Nevada | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Northwestern at California | 6 | NU by 6.1 | NU | XXX |
| Day | Time | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Sun | 3:30 PM | Ohio at Louisville | -21 | Louisville by 20.3 | Ohio | |
| Sun | 6:00 PM | Colorado St. vs Colorado | 3 | CSU by 2.0 | Colorado | |
| Day | Time | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Mon | 8:00 PM | Florida St. at Pittsburgh | 10.5 | FSU by 11.7 | FSU | XXX |
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