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Week 1 Game Predictions

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Your opening week predictions for all FBS teams.

By Paul Dalen
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USA TODAY Sports

It's finally here. The college football season kicks off in two weeks. And somewhere around 3PM on the 31st of August we'll all be pleading with the Great Referee in the Sky to make the non-conference slates go away. Ah yes, weeks 1-4. The 'not quite ready for primetime' time of the college football schedule.

Before I give my predictions for week 1, here's a review of my preseason expected win totals. Remember that these totals don't include conference championship games or predicted bowl games.

Edit:  I had a request for documentation of my methodology.  Lest anyone think I'm just making this all up as I go along, here's a basic description of how I arrived at these numbers.

Team Pred. Wins Team Pred. Wins Team Pred. Wins Team Pred. Wins
Alabama 11.23 Michigan State 8.15 Texas 6.40 Duke 4.51
Northern Illinois 11.01 UCF 8.14 Middle Tennessee 6.38 UAB 4.46
Florida State 10.82 Penn State 8.07 Connecticut 6.34 Boston College 4.39
Oregon 10.82 South Carolina 8.04 Mississippi State 6.34 Missouri 4.37
Utah State 10.10 Michigan 8.00 Georgia Tech 6.23 Tennessee 4.34
Cincinnati 10.04 Northwestern 7.91 Texas Tech 6.19 South Florida 4.32
Texas A&M 9.69 Louisiana-Monroe 7.90 Texas State 6.12 South Alabama 4.29
Arkansas State 9.65 Louisville 7.80 Mississippi 6.07 Houston 3.89
Boise State 9.56 Bowling Green 7.80 Iowa State 5.95 UNLV 3.86
Kansas State 9.44 Kent State 7.78 Florida International 5.95 Virginia 3.85
Tulsa 9.41 LSU 7.70 Baylor 5.94 Miami (Ohio) 3.85
Fresno State 9.32 Stanford 7.68 Central Michigan 5.88 Georgia State 3.82
Ohio State 9.29 Western Kentucky 7.66 Florida Atlantic 5.77 Purdue 3.82
North Carolina 9.22 San Diego State 7.59 Air Force 5.71 Auburn 3.74
Georgia 9.20 Nebraska 7.55 Miami (Florida) 5.66 Indiana 3.68
Ohio 9.20 Oklahoma 7.44 UTSA 5.52 Akron 3.52
San Jose State 9.06 Rice 7.43 Minnesota 5.51 Wake Forest 3.48
BYU 9.04 SMU 7.30 Buffalo 5.45 Arkansas 3.47
Louisiana Tech 9.00 Virginia Tech 7.29 North Texas 5.36 California 3.40
Clemson 8.95 Ball State 7.24 Nevada 5.27 Washington State 3.18
Oklahoma State 8.89 Pittsburgh 7.19 Marshall 5.26 Southern Mississippi 2.82
Rutgers 8.84 UCLA 7.05 West Virginia 5.14 Kentucky 2.62
Oregon State 8.81 TCU 7.01 Utah 5.14 Tulane 2.54
Vanderbilt 8.80 Toledo 6.98 UTEP 4.91 New Mexico State 2.53
Florida 8.79 Syracuse 6.96 New Mexico 4.89 Eastern Michigan 2.38
Notre Dame 8.56 East Carolina 6.83 Wyoming 4.88 Illinois 2.36
Wisconsin 8.47 Navy 6.82 Maryland 4.88 Hawaii 2.00
Arizona State 8.26 Western Michigan 6.80 Colorado State 4.78 Kansas 1.80
Louisiana-Lafayette 8.19 North Carolina State 6.57 Iowa 4.75 Idaho 1.61
USC 8.15 Troy 6.43 Temple 4.65 Massachusetts 1.27
Washington 6.42 Army 4.61 Colorado 0.82
Arizona 6.42 Memphis 4.56

And now my Week 1 predictions:

Date Team A Team B Team A P(win) Team B P(win) Pred. Winner
29-Aug-13 Ball State Illinois State 0.923 0.077 Ball State
29-Aug-13 Connecticut Towson State 0.924 0.076 Connecticut
29-Aug-13 Georgia State Samford 0.476 0.524 Samford
29-Aug-13 Kent State Liberty 0.943 0.057 Kent State
29-Aug-13 Middle Tennessee Western Carolina 0.920 0.080 Middle Tennessee
29-Aug-13 San Jose State Sacramento State 0.983 0.017 San Jose State
29-Aug-13 South Alabama Southern Utah 0.868 0.132 South Alabama
29-Aug-13 Bowling Green Tulsa 0.360 0.640 Tulsa
29-Aug-13 UCF Akron 0.887 0.113 UCF
29-Aug-13 Fresno State Rutgers 0.472 0.528 Rutgers
29-Aug-13 Hawaii USC 0.050 0.950 USC
29-Aug-13 South Carolina North Carolina 0.526 0.474 South Carolina
29-Aug-13 Utah Utah State 0.116 0.884 Utah State
29-Aug-13 Western Kentucky Kentucky 0.838 0.162 Western Kentucky
30-Aug-13 Air Force Colgate 0.909 0.091 Air Force
30-Aug-13 Houston Southern 0.882 0.118 Houston
30-Aug-13 Miami (Florida) Florida Atlantic 0.634 0.366 Miami (Florida)
30-Aug-13 SMU Texas Tech 0.557 0.443 SMU
31-Aug-13 Arizona Northern Arizona 0.900 0.100 Arizona
31-Aug-13 Arkansas State Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0.966 0.034 Arkansas State
31-Aug-13 Army Morgan State 0.852 0.148 Army
31-Aug-13 Baylor Wofford 0.913 0.087 Baylor
31-Aug-13 Boston College Villanova 0.895 0.105 Boston College
31-Aug-13 Duke North Carolina Central 0.880 0.120 Duke
31-Aug-13 East Carolina Old Dominion 0.906 0.094 East Carolina
31-Aug-13 Eastern Michigan Howard 0.711 0.289 Eastern Michigan
31-Aug-13 Georgia Tech Elon 0.938 0.062 Georgia Tech
31-Aug-13 Illinois Southern Illinois 0.760 0.240 Illinois
31-Aug-13 Indiana Indiana State 0.867 0.133 Indiana
31-Aug-13 Iowa State Northern Iowa 0.930 0.070 Iowa State
31-Aug-13 Kansas State North Dakota State 0.997 0.003 Kansas State
31-Aug-13 Missouri Murray State 0.893 0.107 Missouri
31-Aug-13 Oregon Nicholls State 0.994 0.006 Oregon
31-Aug-13 Oregon State Eastern Washington 0.988 0.012 Oregon State
31-Aug-13 San Diego State Eastern Illinois 0.963 0.037 San Diego State
31-Aug-13 South Florida McNeese State 0.881 0.119 South Florida
31-Aug-13 Tennessee Austin Peay 0.911 0.089 Tennessee
31-Aug-13 Tulane Jackson State 0.652 0.348 Tulane
31-Aug-13 Wake Forest Presbyterian 0.863 0.137 Wake Forest
31-Aug-13 West Virginia William & Mary 0.891 0.109 West Virginia
31-Aug-13 Arkansas Louisiana-Lafayette 0.219 0.781 Louisiana-Lafayette
31-Aug-13 Auburn Washington State 0.641 0.359 Auburn
31-Aug-13 California Northwestern 0.114 0.886 Northwestern
31-Aug-13 Cincinnati Purdue 0.857 0.143 Cincinnati
31-Aug-13 Clemson Georgia 0.373 0.627 Georgia
31-Aug-13 Florida Toledo 0.750 0.250 Florida
31-Aug-13 Iowa Northern Illinois 0.125 0.875 Northern Illinois
31-Aug-13 Louisville Ohio 0.496 0.504 Ohio
31-Aug-13 Marshall Miami (Ohio) 0.633 0.367 Marshall
31-Aug-13 Maryland Florida International 0.486 0.514 Florida International
31-Aug-13 Michigan Central Michigan 0.846 0.154 Michigan
31-Aug-13 Michigan State Western Michigan 0.669 0.331 Michigan State
31-Aug-13 Minnesota UNLV 0.627 0.373 Minnesota
31-Aug-13 Nebraska Wyoming 0.729 0.271 Nebraska
31-Aug-13 New Mexico UTSA 0.490 0.510 UTSA
31-Aug-13 North Carolina State Louisiana Tech 0.361 0.639 Louisiana Tech
31-Aug-13 North Texas Idaho 0.887 0.113 North Texas
31-Aug-13 Notre Dame Temple 0.924 0.076 Notre Dame
31-Aug-13 Ohio State Buffalo 0.870 0.130 Ohio State
31-Aug-13 Oklahoma Louisiana-Monroe 0.694 0.306 Oklahoma
31-Aug-13 Oklahoma State Mississippi State 0.656 0.344 Oklahoma State
31-Aug-13 Southern Mississippi Texas State 0.239 0.761 Texas State
31-Aug-13 Syracuse Penn State 0.316 0.684 Penn State
31-Aug-13 Texas New Mexico State 0.925 0.075 Texas
31-Aug-13 Texas A&M Rice 0.869 0.131 Texas A&M
31-Aug-13 TCU LSU 0.308 0.692 LSU
31-Aug-13 Troy UAB 0.693 0.307 Troy
31-Aug-13 UCLA Nevada 0.582 0.418 UCLA
31-Aug-13 Vanderbilt Mississippi 0.711 0.289 Vanderbilt
31-Aug-13 Virginia BYU 0.070 0.930 BYU
31-Aug-13 Virginia Tech Alabama 0.062 0.938 Alabama
31-Aug-13 Washington Boise State 0.166 0.834 Boise State
31-Aug-13 Wisconsin Massachusetts 0.985 0.015 Wisconsin
1-Sep-13 Colorado State Colorado 0.886 0.114 Colorado State
2-Sep-13 Pittsburgh Florida State 0.120 0.880 Florida State

Edit #2:  Algorithm Adjustments to Incorporate a SOS element

I took a beating for leaving out a SOS component this morning.  I appreciate the input I got here, via Twitter, and over the phone today about incorporating a SOS adjustment into the model.

In response I built I've adjusted the algorithm to account for SOS.  I've never worked with SOS before, and what I found was that even small adjustments for SOS can make a HUGE difference in the p(win) calculations.  I think I found adjustment numbers that accurately reflect the previous year results.  I'll keep using this adjustment this season, and evaluate the differences at the end of the year.

Here's the updated expected wins for the FBS.  The standard deviation column can be interpreted as the relative degree of confidence in the output from the model.  Not surprisingly, the teams at the top and bottom of the expected wins column have the highest confidence (lowest standard deviation).  The following chart illustrates this relationship well.
Capture_medium

Team Exp Wins sd wins min max med conference
Florida State 10.73 1.06 6 12 11 ACC
Clemson 8.86 1.26 5 12 9 ACC
North Carolina 8.79 1.52 4 12 9 ACC
Virginia Tech 7.25 1.50 2 11 7 ACC
Pittsburgh 7.19 1.51 2 11 7 ACC
Syracuse 6.83 1.43 2 11 7 ACC
Georgia Tech 6.61 1.51 3 12 7 ACC
North Carolina State 6.54 1.42 3 10 7 ACC
Miami (Florida) 5.78 1.47 2 10 6 ACC
Maryland 4.82 1.60 0 11 5 ACC
Duke 4.48 1.53 0 10 4 ACC
Boston College 4.34 1.30 1 9 4 ACC
Virginia 3.90 1.37 0 8 4 ACC
Wake Forest 3.55 1.34 0 8 3 ACC
Cincinnati 9.82 1.23 6 12 10 American
Rutgers 8.87 1.38 4 12 9 American
UCF 8.39 1.30 4 11 8 American
Louisville 7.91 1.47 4 12 8 American
SMU 7.30 1.43 2 12 7 American
Connecticut 6.29 1.54 2 11 6 American
Memphis 5.06 1.53 0 9 5 American
Temple 4.57 1.35 1 9 5 American
South Florida 4.27 1.46 1 9 4 American
Houston 3.74 1.43 0 10 4 American
Kansas State 9.54 1.40 5 12 10 B12
Oklahoma State 9.05 1.37 4 12 9 B12
Oklahoma 7.66 1.52 3 12 8 B12
TCU 7.02 1.53 2 11 7 B12
Iowa State 6.40 1.47 2 10 6 B12
Texas 6.39 1.50 2 11 6 B12
Baylor 6.22 1.47 1 10 6 B12
Texas Tech 5.92 1.64 0 11 6 B12
West Virginia 5.11 1.39 0 9 5 B12
Kansas 2.38 1.19 0 7 2 B12
Ohio State 9.00 1.37 5 12 9 B1G
Wisconsin 8.85 1.38 4 12 9 B1G
Michigan State 8.59 1.38 4 12 9 B1G
Michigan 8.49 1.42 4 12 9 B1G
Nebraska 8.24 1.34 4 12 8 B1G
Penn State 7.93 1.49 3 12 8 B1G
Northwestern 7.72 1.46 3 12 8 B1G
Minnesota 5.27 1.45 1 10 5 B1G
Iowa 4.60 1.47 1 10 5 B1G
Purdue 3.73 1.32 0 9 4 B1G
Indiana 3.37 1.29 0 8 3 B1G
Illinois 2.20 1.11 0 7 2 B1G
Tulsa 9.05 1.38 4 12 9 C-USA
Louisiana Tech 8.76 1.49 4 12 9 C-USA
Rice 7.20 1.43 3 11 7 C-USA
East Carolina 6.68 1.49 2 11 7 C-USA
Middle Tennessee 6.51 1.67 1 11 7 C-USA
Florida Atlantic 5.91 1.65 1 11 6 C-USA
Florida International 5.86 1.55 1 10 6 C-USA
North Texas 5.60 1.53 1 10 6 C-USA
Marshall 5.26 1.61 1 10 5 C-USA
UTSA 5.06 1.55 1 11 5 C-USA
UTEP 5.02 1.52 0 9 5 C-USA
UAB 4.42 1.51 0 9 4 C-USA
Southern Mississippi 2.88 1.40 0 7 3 C-USA
Tulane 2.80 1.42 0 8 3 C-USA
Notre Dame 9.21 1.37 4 12 9 Ind
BYU 9.12 1.29 5 12 9 Ind
Navy 6.88 1.47 2 10 7 Ind
Army 4.53 1.55 0 9 5 Ind
New Mexico State 2.26 1.17 0 7 2 Ind
Idaho 1.59 1.06 0 5 1 Ind
Northern Illinois 10.65 1.06 6 12 11 MAC
Ohio 8.50 1.48 4 12 9 MAC
Kent State 7.68 1.43 3 12 8 MAC
Bowling Green 7.49 1.24 3 10 8 MAC
Ball State 7.44 1.55 2 12 7 MAC
Toledo 6.93 1.48 2 10 7 MAC
Western Michigan 5.87 1.49 2 11 6 MAC
Central Michigan 5.60 1.45 2 10 6 MAC
Buffalo 5.41 1.46 1 11 5 MAC
Miami (Ohio) 4.04 1.41 0 8 4 MAC
Akron 3.54 1.27 1 8 3 MAC
Eastern Michigan 2.60 1.28 0 6 3 MAC
Massachusetts 1.49 1.02 0 6 1 MAC
Utah State 9.87 1.21 5 12 10 MWC
Boise State 9.44 1.37 5 12 10 MWC
San Jose State 9.21 1.19 5 12 9 MWC
Fresno State 9.13 1.28 5 12 9 MWC
San Diego State 7.46 1.34 3 12 7 MWC
Air Force 5.41 1.41 1 10 5 MWC
Nevada 4.75 1.41 1 10 5 MWC
Wyoming 4.68 1.40 1 9 5 MWC
Colorado State 4.67 1.34 1 9 5 MWC
New Mexico 4.63 1.50 0 9 5 MWC
UNLV 3.83 1.42 0 8 4 MWC
Oregon 10.90 0.96 7 12 11 Pac-12
Oregon State 9.07 1.23 5 12 9 Pac-12
USC 8.47 1.40 4 13 9 Pac-12
Stanford 8.16 1.43 4 12 8 Pac-12
Arizona State 7.89 1.50 3 12 8 Pac-12
UCLA 7.04 1.39 3 11 7 Pac-12
Washington 6.52 1.27 3 10 6 Pac-12
Arizona 6.47 1.50 2 11 6 Pac-12
Utah 4.99 1.31 1 9 5 Pac-12
California 3.79 1.25 1 9 4 Pac-12
Washington State 3.08 1.22 0 7 3 Pac-12
Colorado 1.06 0.92 0 5 1 Pac-12
Alabama 11.23 0.79 8 12 11 SEC
Texas A&M 10.13 1.12 6 12 10 SEC
Georgia 9.36 1.33 5 12 9 SEC
Florida 8.84 1.25 5 12 9 SEC
Vanderbilt 8.52 1.27 4 12 9 SEC
South Carolina 8.07 1.41 4 12 8 SEC
LSU 7.75 1.32 3 11 8 SEC
Mississippi 6.21 1.45 1 11 6 SEC
Mississippi State 6.06 1.41 2 10 6 SEC
Missouri 4.83 1.45 1 9 5 SEC
Tennessee 4.29 1.32 1 8 4 SEC
Auburn 4.29 1.30 1 9 4 SEC
Arkansas 3.52 1.23 0 7 3 SEC
Kentucky 3.20 1.23 0 8 3 SEC
Arkansas State 9.65 1.30 5 12 10 Sun Belt
Louisiana-Lafayette 8.01 1.46 3 12 8 Sun Belt
Louisiana-Monroe 7.87 1.41 3 12 8 Sun Belt
Western Kentucky 7.53 1.56 2 12 8 Sun Belt
Troy 6.30 1.67 2 11 6 Sun Belt
Texas State 5.77 1.50 1 11 6 Sun Belt
South Alabama 4.63 1.49 1 9 5 Sun Belt
Georgia State 3.05 1.38 0 7 3 Sun Belt
Old Dominion 3.18 1.41 0 8 3 #N/A
Hawaii 1.95 1.13 0 6 2 #N/A

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