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It's finally here. The college football season kicks off in two weeks. And somewhere around 3PM on the 31st of August we'll all be pleading with the Great Referee in the Sky to make the non-conference slates go away. Ah yes, weeks 1-4. The 'not quite ready for primetime' time of the college football schedule.
Before I give my predictions for week 1, here's a review of my preseason expected win totals. Remember that these totals don't include conference championship games or predicted bowl games.
Edit: I had a request for documentation of my methodology. Lest anyone think I'm just making this all up as I go along, here's a basic description of how I arrived at these numbers.
Team | Pred. Wins | Team | Pred. Wins | Team | Pred. Wins | Team | Pred. Wins |
Alabama | 11.23 | Michigan State | 8.15 | Texas | 6.40 | Duke | 4.51 |
Northern Illinois | 11.01 | UCF | 8.14 | Middle Tennessee | 6.38 | UAB | 4.46 |
Florida State | 10.82 | Penn State | 8.07 | Connecticut | 6.34 | Boston College | 4.39 |
Oregon | 10.82 | South Carolina | 8.04 | Mississippi State | 6.34 | Missouri | 4.37 |
Utah State | 10.10 | Michigan | 8.00 | Georgia Tech | 6.23 | Tennessee | 4.34 |
Cincinnati | 10.04 | Northwestern | 7.91 | Texas Tech | 6.19 | South Florida | 4.32 |
Texas A&M | 9.69 | Louisiana-Monroe | 7.90 | Texas State | 6.12 | South Alabama | 4.29 |
Arkansas State | 9.65 | Louisville | 7.80 | Mississippi | 6.07 | Houston | 3.89 |
Boise State | 9.56 | Bowling Green | 7.80 | Iowa State | 5.95 | UNLV | 3.86 |
Kansas State | 9.44 | Kent State | 7.78 | Florida International | 5.95 | Virginia | 3.85 |
Tulsa | 9.41 | LSU | 7.70 | Baylor | 5.94 | Miami (Ohio) | 3.85 |
Fresno State | 9.32 | Stanford | 7.68 | Central Michigan | 5.88 | Georgia State | 3.82 |
Ohio State | 9.29 | Western Kentucky | 7.66 | Florida Atlantic | 5.77 | Purdue | 3.82 |
North Carolina | 9.22 | San Diego State | 7.59 | Air Force | 5.71 | Auburn | 3.74 |
Georgia | 9.20 | Nebraska | 7.55 | Miami (Florida) | 5.66 | Indiana | 3.68 |
Ohio | 9.20 | Oklahoma | 7.44 | UTSA | 5.52 | Akron | 3.52 |
San Jose State | 9.06 | Rice | 7.43 | Minnesota | 5.51 | Wake Forest | 3.48 |
BYU | 9.04 | SMU | 7.30 | Buffalo | 5.45 | Arkansas | 3.47 |
Louisiana Tech | 9.00 | Virginia Tech | 7.29 | North Texas | 5.36 | California | 3.40 |
Clemson | 8.95 | Ball State | 7.24 | Nevada | 5.27 | Washington State | 3.18 |
Oklahoma State | 8.89 | Pittsburgh | 7.19 | Marshall | 5.26 | Southern Mississippi | 2.82 |
Rutgers | 8.84 | UCLA | 7.05 | West Virginia | 5.14 | Kentucky | 2.62 |
Oregon State | 8.81 | TCU | 7.01 | Utah | 5.14 | Tulane | 2.54 |
Vanderbilt | 8.80 | Toledo | 6.98 | UTEP | 4.91 | New Mexico State | 2.53 |
Florida | 8.79 | Syracuse | 6.96 | New Mexico | 4.89 | Eastern Michigan | 2.38 |
Notre Dame | 8.56 | East Carolina | 6.83 | Wyoming | 4.88 | Illinois | 2.36 |
Wisconsin | 8.47 | Navy | 6.82 | Maryland | 4.88 | Hawaii | 2.00 |
Arizona State | 8.26 | Western Michigan | 6.80 | Colorado State | 4.78 | Kansas | 1.80 |
Louisiana-Lafayette | 8.19 | North Carolina State | 6.57 | Iowa | 4.75 | Idaho | 1.61 |
USC | 8.15 | Troy | 6.43 | Temple | 4.65 | Massachusetts | 1.27 |
Washington | 6.42 | Army | 4.61 | Colorado | 0.82 | ||
Arizona | 6.42 | Memphis | 4.56 |
And now my Week 1 predictions:
Date | Team A | Team B | Team A P(win) | Team B P(win) | Pred. Winner |
29-Aug-13 | Ball State | Illinois State | 0.923 | 0.077 | Ball State |
29-Aug-13 | Connecticut | Towson State | 0.924 | 0.076 | Connecticut |
29-Aug-13 | Georgia State | Samford | 0.476 | 0.524 | Samford |
29-Aug-13 | Kent State | Liberty | 0.943 | 0.057 | Kent State |
29-Aug-13 | Middle Tennessee | Western Carolina | 0.920 | 0.080 | Middle Tennessee |
29-Aug-13 | San Jose State | Sacramento State | 0.983 | 0.017 | San Jose State |
29-Aug-13 | South Alabama | Southern Utah | 0.868 | 0.132 | South Alabama |
29-Aug-13 | Bowling Green | Tulsa | 0.360 | 0.640 | Tulsa |
29-Aug-13 | UCF | Akron | 0.887 | 0.113 | UCF |
29-Aug-13 | Fresno State | Rutgers | 0.472 | 0.528 | Rutgers |
29-Aug-13 | Hawaii | USC | 0.050 | 0.950 | USC |
29-Aug-13 | South Carolina | North Carolina | 0.526 | 0.474 | South Carolina |
29-Aug-13 | Utah | Utah State | 0.116 | 0.884 | Utah State |
29-Aug-13 | Western Kentucky | Kentucky | 0.838 | 0.162 | Western Kentucky |
30-Aug-13 | Air Force | Colgate | 0.909 | 0.091 | Air Force |
30-Aug-13 | Houston | Southern | 0.882 | 0.118 | Houston |
30-Aug-13 | Miami (Florida) | Florida Atlantic | 0.634 | 0.366 | Miami (Florida) |
30-Aug-13 | SMU | Texas Tech | 0.557 | 0.443 | SMU |
31-Aug-13 | Arizona | Northern Arizona | 0.900 | 0.100 | Arizona |
31-Aug-13 | Arkansas State | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0.966 | 0.034 | Arkansas State |
31-Aug-13 | Army | Morgan State | 0.852 | 0.148 | Army |
31-Aug-13 | Baylor | Wofford | 0.913 | 0.087 | Baylor |
31-Aug-13 | Boston College | Villanova | 0.895 | 0.105 | Boston College |
31-Aug-13 | Duke | North Carolina Central | 0.880 | 0.120 | Duke |
31-Aug-13 | East Carolina | Old Dominion | 0.906 | 0.094 | East Carolina |
31-Aug-13 | Eastern Michigan | Howard | 0.711 | 0.289 | Eastern Michigan |
31-Aug-13 | Georgia Tech | Elon | 0.938 | 0.062 | Georgia Tech |
31-Aug-13 | Illinois | Southern Illinois | 0.760 | 0.240 | Illinois |
31-Aug-13 | Indiana | Indiana State | 0.867 | 0.133 | Indiana |
31-Aug-13 | Iowa State | Northern Iowa | 0.930 | 0.070 | Iowa State |
31-Aug-13 | Kansas State | North Dakota State | 0.997 | 0.003 | Kansas State |
31-Aug-13 | Missouri | Murray State | 0.893 | 0.107 | Missouri |
31-Aug-13 | Oregon | Nicholls State | 0.994 | 0.006 | Oregon |
31-Aug-13 | Oregon State | Eastern Washington | 0.988 | 0.012 | Oregon State |
31-Aug-13 | San Diego State | Eastern Illinois | 0.963 | 0.037 | San Diego State |
31-Aug-13 | South Florida | McNeese State | 0.881 | 0.119 | South Florida |
31-Aug-13 | Tennessee | Austin Peay | 0.911 | 0.089 | Tennessee |
31-Aug-13 | Tulane | Jackson State | 0.652 | 0.348 | Tulane |
31-Aug-13 | Wake Forest | Presbyterian | 0.863 | 0.137 | Wake Forest |
31-Aug-13 | West Virginia | William & Mary | 0.891 | 0.109 | West Virginia |
31-Aug-13 | Arkansas | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.219 | 0.781 | Louisiana-Lafayette |
31-Aug-13 | Auburn | Washington State | 0.641 | 0.359 | Auburn |
31-Aug-13 | California | Northwestern | 0.114 | 0.886 | Northwestern |
31-Aug-13 | Cincinnati | Purdue | 0.857 | 0.143 | Cincinnati |
31-Aug-13 | Clemson | Georgia | 0.373 | 0.627 | Georgia |
31-Aug-13 | Florida | Toledo | 0.750 | 0.250 | Florida |
31-Aug-13 | Iowa | Northern Illinois | 0.125 | 0.875 | Northern Illinois |
31-Aug-13 | Louisville | Ohio | 0.496 | 0.504 | Ohio |
31-Aug-13 | Marshall | Miami (Ohio) | 0.633 | 0.367 | Marshall |
31-Aug-13 | Maryland | Florida International | 0.486 | 0.514 | Florida International |
31-Aug-13 | Michigan | Central Michigan | 0.846 | 0.154 | Michigan |
31-Aug-13 | Michigan State | Western Michigan | 0.669 | 0.331 | Michigan State |
31-Aug-13 | Minnesota | UNLV | 0.627 | 0.373 | Minnesota |
31-Aug-13 | Nebraska | Wyoming | 0.729 | 0.271 | Nebraska |
31-Aug-13 | New Mexico | UTSA | 0.490 | 0.510 | UTSA |
31-Aug-13 | North Carolina State | Louisiana Tech | 0.361 | 0.639 | Louisiana Tech |
31-Aug-13 | North Texas | Idaho | 0.887 | 0.113 | North Texas |
31-Aug-13 | Notre Dame | Temple | 0.924 | 0.076 | Notre Dame |
31-Aug-13 | Ohio State | Buffalo | 0.870 | 0.130 | Ohio State |
31-Aug-13 | Oklahoma | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.694 | 0.306 | Oklahoma |
31-Aug-13 | Oklahoma State | Mississippi State | 0.656 | 0.344 | Oklahoma State |
31-Aug-13 | Southern Mississippi | Texas State | 0.239 | 0.761 | Texas State |
31-Aug-13 | Syracuse | Penn State | 0.316 | 0.684 | Penn State |
31-Aug-13 | Texas | New Mexico State | 0.925 | 0.075 | Texas |
31-Aug-13 | Texas A&M | Rice | 0.869 | 0.131 | Texas A&M |
31-Aug-13 | TCU | LSU | 0.308 | 0.692 | LSU |
31-Aug-13 | Troy | UAB | 0.693 | 0.307 | Troy |
31-Aug-13 | UCLA | Nevada | 0.582 | 0.418 | UCLA |
31-Aug-13 | Vanderbilt | Mississippi | 0.711 | 0.289 | Vanderbilt |
31-Aug-13 | Virginia | BYU | 0.070 | 0.930 | BYU |
31-Aug-13 | Virginia Tech | Alabama | 0.062 | 0.938 | Alabama |
31-Aug-13 | Washington | Boise State | 0.166 | 0.834 | Boise State |
31-Aug-13 | Wisconsin | Massachusetts | 0.985 | 0.015 | Wisconsin |
1-Sep-13 | Colorado State | Colorado | 0.886 | 0.114 | Colorado State |
2-Sep-13 | Pittsburgh | Florida State | 0.120 | 0.880 | Florida State |
Team | Exp Wins | sd wins | min | max | med | conference |
Florida State | 10.73 | 1.06 | 6 | 12 | 11 | ACC |
Clemson | 8.86 | 1.26 | 5 | 12 | 9 | ACC |
North Carolina | 8.79 | 1.52 | 4 | 12 | 9 | ACC |
Virginia Tech | 7.25 | 1.50 | 2 | 11 | 7 | ACC |
Pittsburgh | 7.19 | 1.51 | 2 | 11 | 7 | ACC |
Syracuse | 6.83 | 1.43 | 2 | 11 | 7 | ACC |
Georgia Tech | 6.61 | 1.51 | 3 | 12 | 7 | ACC |
North Carolina State | 6.54 | 1.42 | 3 | 10 | 7 | ACC |
Miami (Florida) | 5.78 | 1.47 | 2 | 10 | 6 | ACC |
Maryland | 4.82 | 1.60 | 0 | 11 | 5 | ACC |
Duke | 4.48 | 1.53 | 0 | 10 | 4 | ACC |
Boston College | 4.34 | 1.30 | 1 | 9 | 4 | ACC |
Virginia | 3.90 | 1.37 | 0 | 8 | 4 | ACC |
Wake Forest | 3.55 | 1.34 | 0 | 8 | 3 | ACC |
Cincinnati | 9.82 | 1.23 | 6 | 12 | 10 | American |
Rutgers | 8.87 | 1.38 | 4 | 12 | 9 | American |
UCF | 8.39 | 1.30 | 4 | 11 | 8 | American |
Louisville | 7.91 | 1.47 | 4 | 12 | 8 | American |
SMU | 7.30 | 1.43 | 2 | 12 | 7 | American |
Connecticut | 6.29 | 1.54 | 2 | 11 | 6 | American |
Memphis | 5.06 | 1.53 | 0 | 9 | 5 | American |
Temple | 4.57 | 1.35 | 1 | 9 | 5 | American |
South Florida | 4.27 | 1.46 | 1 | 9 | 4 | American |
Houston | 3.74 | 1.43 | 0 | 10 | 4 | American |
Kansas State | 9.54 | 1.40 | 5 | 12 | 10 | B12 |
Oklahoma State | 9.05 | 1.37 | 4 | 12 | 9 | B12 |
Oklahoma | 7.66 | 1.52 | 3 | 12 | 8 | B12 |
TCU | 7.02 | 1.53 | 2 | 11 | 7 | B12 |
Iowa State | 6.40 | 1.47 | 2 | 10 | 6 | B12 |
Texas | 6.39 | 1.50 | 2 | 11 | 6 | B12 |
Baylor | 6.22 | 1.47 | 1 | 10 | 6 | B12 |
Texas Tech | 5.92 | 1.64 | 0 | 11 | 6 | B12 |
West Virginia | 5.11 | 1.39 | 0 | 9 | 5 | B12 |
Kansas | 2.38 | 1.19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | B12 |
Ohio State | 9.00 | 1.37 | 5 | 12 | 9 | B1G |
Wisconsin | 8.85 | 1.38 | 4 | 12 | 9 | B1G |
Michigan State | 8.59 | 1.38 | 4 | 12 | 9 | B1G |
Michigan | 8.49 | 1.42 | 4 | 12 | 9 | B1G |
Nebraska | 8.24 | 1.34 | 4 | 12 | 8 | B1G |
Penn State | 7.93 | 1.49 | 3 | 12 | 8 | B1G |
Northwestern | 7.72 | 1.46 | 3 | 12 | 8 | B1G |
Minnesota | 5.27 | 1.45 | 1 | 10 | 5 | B1G |
Iowa | 4.60 | 1.47 | 1 | 10 | 5 | B1G |
Purdue | 3.73 | 1.32 | 0 | 9 | 4 | B1G |
Indiana | 3.37 | 1.29 | 0 | 8 | 3 | B1G |
Illinois | 2.20 | 1.11 | 0 | 7 | 2 | B1G |
Tulsa | 9.05 | 1.38 | 4 | 12 | 9 | C-USA |
Louisiana Tech | 8.76 | 1.49 | 4 | 12 | 9 | C-USA |
Rice | 7.20 | 1.43 | 3 | 11 | 7 | C-USA |
East Carolina | 6.68 | 1.49 | 2 | 11 | 7 | C-USA |
Middle Tennessee | 6.51 | 1.67 | 1 | 11 | 7 | C-USA |
Florida Atlantic | 5.91 | 1.65 | 1 | 11 | 6 | C-USA |
Florida International | 5.86 | 1.55 | 1 | 10 | 6 | C-USA |
North Texas | 5.60 | 1.53 | 1 | 10 | 6 | C-USA |
Marshall | 5.26 | 1.61 | 1 | 10 | 5 | C-USA |
UTSA | 5.06 | 1.55 | 1 | 11 | 5 | C-USA |
UTEP | 5.02 | 1.52 | 0 | 9 | 5 | C-USA |
UAB | 4.42 | 1.51 | 0 | 9 | 4 | C-USA |
Southern Mississippi | 2.88 | 1.40 | 0 | 7 | 3 | C-USA |
Tulane | 2.80 | 1.42 | 0 | 8 | 3 | C-USA |
Notre Dame | 9.21 | 1.37 | 4 | 12 | 9 | Ind |
BYU | 9.12 | 1.29 | 5 | 12 | 9 | Ind |
Navy | 6.88 | 1.47 | 2 | 10 | 7 | Ind |
Army | 4.53 | 1.55 | 0 | 9 | 5 | Ind |
New Mexico State | 2.26 | 1.17 | 0 | 7 | 2 | Ind |
Idaho | 1.59 | 1.06 | 0 | 5 | 1 | Ind |
Northern Illinois | 10.65 | 1.06 | 6 | 12 | 11 | MAC |
Ohio | 8.50 | 1.48 | 4 | 12 | 9 | MAC |
Kent State | 7.68 | 1.43 | 3 | 12 | 8 | MAC |
Bowling Green | 7.49 | 1.24 | 3 | 10 | 8 | MAC |
Ball State | 7.44 | 1.55 | 2 | 12 | 7 | MAC |
Toledo | 6.93 | 1.48 | 2 | 10 | 7 | MAC |
Western Michigan | 5.87 | 1.49 | 2 | 11 | 6 | MAC |
Central Michigan | 5.60 | 1.45 | 2 | 10 | 6 | MAC |
Buffalo | 5.41 | 1.46 | 1 | 11 | 5 | MAC |
Miami (Ohio) | 4.04 | 1.41 | 0 | 8 | 4 | MAC |
Akron | 3.54 | 1.27 | 1 | 8 | 3 | MAC |
Eastern Michigan | 2.60 | 1.28 | 0 | 6 | 3 | MAC |
Massachusetts | 1.49 | 1.02 | 0 | 6 | 1 | MAC |
Utah State | 9.87 | 1.21 | 5 | 12 | 10 | MWC |
Boise State | 9.44 | 1.37 | 5 | 12 | 10 | MWC |
San Jose State | 9.21 | 1.19 | 5 | 12 | 9 | MWC |
Fresno State | 9.13 | 1.28 | 5 | 12 | 9 | MWC |
San Diego State | 7.46 | 1.34 | 3 | 12 | 7 | MWC |
Air Force | 5.41 | 1.41 | 1 | 10 | 5 | MWC |
Nevada | 4.75 | 1.41 | 1 | 10 | 5 | MWC |
Wyoming | 4.68 | 1.40 | 1 | 9 | 5 | MWC |
Colorado State | 4.67 | 1.34 | 1 | 9 | 5 | MWC |
New Mexico | 4.63 | 1.50 | 0 | 9 | 5 | MWC |
UNLV | 3.83 | 1.42 | 0 | 8 | 4 | MWC |
Oregon | 10.90 | 0.96 | 7 | 12 | 11 | Pac-12 |
Oregon State | 9.07 | 1.23 | 5 | 12 | 9 | Pac-12 |
USC | 8.47 | 1.40 | 4 | 13 | 9 | Pac-12 |
Stanford | 8.16 | 1.43 | 4 | 12 | 8 | Pac-12 |
Arizona State | 7.89 | 1.50 | 3 | 12 | 8 | Pac-12 |
UCLA | 7.04 | 1.39 | 3 | 11 | 7 | Pac-12 |
Washington | 6.52 | 1.27 | 3 | 10 | 6 | Pac-12 |
Arizona | 6.47 | 1.50 | 2 | 11 | 6 | Pac-12 |
Utah | 4.99 | 1.31 | 1 | 9 | 5 | Pac-12 |
California | 3.79 | 1.25 | 1 | 9 | 4 | Pac-12 |
Washington State | 3.08 | 1.22 | 0 | 7 | 3 | Pac-12 |
Colorado | 1.06 | 0.92 | 0 | 5 | 1 | Pac-12 |
Alabama | 11.23 | 0.79 | 8 | 12 | 11 | SEC |
Texas A&M | 10.13 | 1.12 | 6 | 12 | 10 | SEC |
Georgia | 9.36 | 1.33 | 5 | 12 | 9 | SEC |
Florida | 8.84 | 1.25 | 5 | 12 | 9 | SEC |
Vanderbilt | 8.52 | 1.27 | 4 | 12 | 9 | SEC |
South Carolina | 8.07 | 1.41 | 4 | 12 | 8 | SEC |
LSU | 7.75 | 1.32 | 3 | 11 | 8 | SEC |
Mississippi | 6.21 | 1.45 | 1 | 11 | 6 | SEC |
Mississippi State | 6.06 | 1.41 | 2 | 10 | 6 | SEC |
Missouri | 4.83 | 1.45 | 1 | 9 | 5 | SEC |
Tennessee | 4.29 | 1.32 | 1 | 8 | 4 | SEC |
Auburn | 4.29 | 1.30 | 1 | 9 | 4 | SEC |
Arkansas | 3.52 | 1.23 | 0 | 7 | 3 | SEC |
Kentucky | 3.20 | 1.23 | 0 | 8 | 3 | SEC |
Arkansas State | 9.65 | 1.30 | 5 | 12 | 10 | Sun Belt |
Louisiana-Lafayette | 8.01 | 1.46 | 3 | 12 | 8 | Sun Belt |
Louisiana-Monroe | 7.87 | 1.41 | 3 | 12 | 8 | Sun Belt |
Western Kentucky | 7.53 | 1.56 | 2 | 12 | 8 | Sun Belt |
Troy | 6.30 | 1.67 | 2 | 11 | 6 | Sun Belt |
Texas State | 5.77 | 1.50 | 1 | 11 | 6 | Sun Belt |
South Alabama | 4.63 | 1.49 | 1 | 9 | 5 | Sun Belt |
Georgia State | 3.05 | 1.38 | 0 | 7 | 3 | Sun Belt |
Old Dominion | 3.18 | 1.41 | 0 | 8 | 3 | #N/A |
Hawaii | 1.95 | 1.13 | 0 | 6 | 2 | #N/A |
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