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Yesterday, we took a look at data related to the ability to finish drives. Another part of the same chapter in Study Hall deals with three-and-outs and their impact on both the field position battle and a given game as a whole.
Below is a table from the book. It looks at the records of teams with a certain number of three-and-outs in a given game.
3-and-outs | W-L | Win% | Avg. Margin |
0 | 64-32 | 66.7% | +9.8 points |
1 | 170-100 | 63.0% | +7.8 points |
2 | 204-155 | 56.8% | +3.7 points |
3 | 140-147 | 48.8% | -1.0 points |
4-5 | 119-222 | 34.9% | -7.6 points |
6-7 | 35-67 | 34.3% | -12.2 points |
8 or more | 0-9 | 0.0% | -22.4 points |
(NOTE: This looks specifically at drives that finished in punts within three plays. Turnovers both more catastrophic and not included in this sample.)
So basically, if you can avoid going three-and-out more than twice in a given game, you have a good to very good chance of winning no matter what else happens.
I thought it would be pretty interesting, then, to take a look at the teams most effective at forcing three-and-outs last fall. When you combine this with yesterday's drive-finishing data, you get a pretty clear look at how teams went about accomplishing their season-ending defensive rankings. Some (Rutgers) were good at bailing themselves out and preventing you from scoring. Others (Florida State) were good at choking you out before you could even get started. (And many were good at neither.)
Defense | 3-and-out | Total Drives | 3&O Pct | Rk |
Florida State | 68 | 186 | 57.6% | 1 |
Connecticut | 58 | 163 | 55.2% | 2 |
Michigan State | 56 | 167 | 50.5% | 3 |
Alabama | 54 | 166 | 48.2% | 4 |
Wisconsin | 59 | 183 | 47.6% | 5 |
BYU | 52 | 163 | 46.8% | 6 |
Utah State | 55 | 175 | 45.8% | 7 |
Stanford | 55 | 181 | 43.7% | 8 |
Florida | 47 | 159 | 42.0% | 9 |
Tulsa | 60 | 206 | 41.1% | 10 |
Virginia Tech | 53 | 182 | 41.1% | 11 |
Virginia | 46 | 159 | 40.7% | 12 |
Fresno State | 54 | 190 | 39.7% | 13 |
TCU | 52 | 183 | 39.7% | 14 |
Arizona State | 54 | 191 | 39.4% | 15 |
Texas A&M | 49 | 175 | 38.9% | 16 |
South Carolina | 46 | 165 | 38.7% | 17 |
Buffalo | 45 | 162 | 38.5% | 18 |
Georgia | 51 | 184 | 38.3% | 19 |
Nebraska | 53 | 196 | 37.1% | 20 |
Vanderbilt | 45 | 168 | 36.6% | 21 |
Penn State | 40 | 151 | 36.0% | 22 |
Bowling Green | 45 | 171 | 35.7% | 23 |
San Jose State | 46 | 175 | 35.7% | 24 |
N.C. State | 52 | 200 | 35.1% | 25 |
Defense | 3-and-out | Total Drives | 3&O Pct | Rk |
Missouri | 44 | 170 | 34.9% | 26 |
Hawaii | 42 | 163 | 34.7% | 27 |
East Carolina | 43 | 167 | 34.7% | 28 |
LSU | 44 | 175 | 33.6% | 29 |
Oklahoma State | 45 | 181 | 33.1% | 30 |
Illinois | 39 | 157 | 33.1% | 31 |
UCLA | 51 | 206 | 32.9% | 32 |
Clemson | 44 | 178 | 32.8% | 33 |
Northern Illinois | 44 | 178 | 32.8% | 33 |
Auburn | 36 | 147 | 32.4% | 35 |
North Texas | 37 | 152 | 32.2% | 36 |
Michigan | 36 | 148 | 32.1% | 37 |
Rice | 42 | 173 | 32.1% | 38 |
Rutgers | 41 | 170 | 31.8% | 39 |
Washington | 40 | 166 | 31.7% | 40 |
Ole Miss | 42 | 175 | 31.6% | 41 |
Indiana | 39 | 163 | 31.5% | 42 |
South Alabama | 43 | 180 | 31.4% | 43 |
Oklahoma | 41 | 172 | 31.3% | 44 |
North Carolina | 38 | 160 | 31.1% | 45 |
Maryland | 38 | 161 | 30.9% | 46 |
Ohio State | 38 | 161 | 30.9% | 46 |
Oregon State | 41 | 174 | 30.8% | 48 |
Florida Atlantic | 35 | 150 | 30.4% | 49 |
Arkansas | 37 | 159 | 30.3% | 50 |
Defense | 3-and-out | Total Drives | 3&O Pct | Rk |
Tennessee | 40 | 173 | 30.1% | 51 |
Pittsburgh | 34 | 149 | 29.6% | 52 |
UAB | 37 | 163 | 29.4% | 53 |
Western Michigan | 36 | 159 | 29.3% | 54 |
Ball State | 36 | 160 | 29.0% | 55 |
Troy | 36 | 161 | 28.8% | 56 |
Notre Dame | 33 | 149 | 28.4% | 57 |
Minnesota | 35 | 162 | 27.6% | 58 |
Iowa State | 38 | 177 | 27.3% | 59 |
Louisville | 32 | 150 | 27.1% | 60 |
Florida International | 34 | 160 | 27.0% | 61 |
Texas Tech | 33 | 156 | 26.8% | 62 |
Central Florida | 36 | 171 | 26.7% | 63 |
Iowa | 31 | 148 | 26.5% | 64 |
Oregon | 40 | 191 | 26.5% | 65 |
Boise State | 32 | 153 | 26.4% | 66 |
Georgia Tech | 36 | 174 | 26.1% | 67 |
SMU | 38 | 184 | 26.0% | 68 |
Mississippi State | 32 | 156 | 25.8% | 69 |
Kent State | 39 | 191 | 25.7% | 70 |
Cincinnati | 34 | 167 | 25.6% | 71 |
Duke | 35 | 173 | 25.4% | 72 |
Memphis | 29 | 147 | 24.6% | 73 |
UL-Monroe | 32 | 165 | 24.1% | 74 |
Texas | 31 | 160 | 24.0% | 75 |
Defense | 3-and-out | Total Drives | 3&O Pct | Rk |
Purdue | 34 | 176 | 23.9% | 76 |
West Virginia | 33 | 172 | 23.7% | 77 |
Akron | 31 | 162 | 23.7% | 78 |
Army | 26 | 136 | 23.6% | 79 |
USC | 33 | 173 | 23.6% | 80 |
Temple | 27 | 142 | 23.5% | 81 |
Western Kentucky | 29 | 153 | 23.4% | 82 |
Ohio | 31 | 164 | 23.3% | 83 |
Utah | 29 | 154 | 23.2% | 84 |
New Mexico State | 29 | 155 | 23.0% | 85 |
Arizona | 34 | 182 | 23.0% | 86 |
Northwestern | 30 | 161 | 22.9% | 87 |
South Florida | 27 | 146 | 22.7% | 88 |
Air Force | 27 | 148 | 22.3% | 89 |
Kansas | 28 | 154 | 22.2% | 90 |
Boston College | 28 | 155 | 22.0% | 91 |
Arkansas State | 28 | 156 | 21.9% | 92 |
Kansas State | 27 | 151 | 21.8% | 93 |
UL-Lafayette | 31 | 174 | 21.7% | 94 |
California | 29 | 163 | 21.6% | 95 |
Eastern Michigan | 27 | 152 | 21.6% | 96 |
Miami (Ohio) | 27 | 153 | 21.4% | 97 |
Colorado | 28 | 159 | 21.4% | 98 |
Colorado State | 26 | 148 | 21.3% | 99 |
Wyoming | 25 | 144 | 21.0% | 100 |
Defense | 3-and-out | Total Drives | 3&O Pct | Rk |
UTEP | 26 | 151 | 20.8% | 101 |
Marshall | 27 | 159 | 20.5% | 102 |
Baylor | 30 | 177 | 20.4% | 103 |
Louisiana Tech | 29 | 172 | 20.3% | 104 |
Houston | 30 | 180 | 20.0% | 105 |
Toledo | 29 | 177 | 19.6% | 106 |
Syracuse | 26 | 161 | 19.3% | 107 |
Middle Tennessee | 22 | 137 | 19.1% | 108 |
Navy | 22 | 137 | 19.1% | 108 |
Nevada | 25 | 160 | 18.5% | 110 |
UNLV | 25 | 161 | 18.4% | 111 |
Kentucky | 22 | 142 | 18.3% | 112 |
Wake Forest | 25 | 163 | 18.1% | 113 |
Tulane | 25 | 166 | 17.7% | 114 |
Massachusetts | 22 | 156 | 16.4% | 115 |
San Diego State | 22 | 158 | 16.2% | 116 |
Southern Miss | 21 | 153 | 15.9% | 117 |
Texas State | 20 | 146 | 15.9% | 118 |
UTSA | 16 | 120 | 15.4% | 119 |
Miami | 21 | 158 | 15.3% | 120 |
Washington State | 21 | 159 | 15.2% | 121 |
New Mexico | 19 | 145 | 15.1% | 122 |
Central Michigan | 20 | 157 | 14.6% | 123 |
Idaho | 19 | 161 | 13.4% | 124 |
Note: Because we're specifically looking at drives that ended in punts, the numbers here are a little different than in Brian Fremeau's First Down Rate statistic.
Another note: Fremeau is the drives data master. Follow his work (through the link above) to get all sorts of details similar (and probably superior) to this.
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