/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/12191871/153102037.0.jpg)
@HuskerMath's Ridiculously Early 2013 Season Predictions - Part Deux
The first version of this had a glaring error that merited starting from scratch. The first version used 2012's conference alignments instead of 2013's. Because there is a conference component of the model, that changed some of the results (most insignificantly, some drastically) as well made me look pretty stupid for predicting conference standings for a conference that won't play football in 2013.
I've already detailed many of the issues with trying to forecast the season before teams have played a single down in this post, so I won't rehash them now. I'll just skip to the results. The only change to the model algorithm was to separate home and away scoring offense and defense.
For all charts the "Exp. Wins" is the average number of wins over 1000 model runs. P(#) is the cumulative probability that the team reaches that number of wins.
The overall Top-25 in Expected Wins
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
1 | Alabama | SEC West | 10.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
2 | Northern Illinois | MAC West | 10.59 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.72 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
3 | Oregon | Pac-12 North | 10.59 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
4 | Florida State | ACC Atlantic | 10.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
5 | Texas A&M | SEC West | 9.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
6 | Cincinnati | AAC | 9.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
7 | BYU | Ind | 9.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
8 | Georgia | SEC East | 9.54 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
9 | Ohio | MAC East | 9.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
10 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 9.32 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
11 | Fresno State | MWC West | 9.17 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
12 | Boise State | MWC Mountain | 9.13 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
13 | Stanford | Pac-12 North | 9.08 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
14 | UCF | AAC | 9.07 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
15 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA West | 8.91 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
16 | Vanderbilt | SEC East | 8.82 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
17 | North Carolina | ACC Coastal | 8.82 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
18 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 8.81 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
19 | Clemson | ACC Atlantic | 8.75 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
20 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.70 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
21 | Navy | Ind | 8.68 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
22 | Utah State | MWC Mountain | 8.67 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
23 | Tulsa | C-USA West | 8.63 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
24 | Bowling Green | MAC East | 8.59 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
25 | South Carolina | SEC East | 8.58 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
It should come as no shock that Alabama is your season front runner. Northern Illinois, who made a splash last year with a BCS bowl game appearance, looks strong again. What surprises me is that no team in the Big Ten is in the Top 25 for regular season expected wins.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
6 | Cincinnati | AAC | 9.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
14 | UCF | AAC | 9.07 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
27 | Rutgers | AAC | 8.51 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
40 | Louisville | AAC | 7.79 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
64 | Connecticut | AAC | 6.30 | 0.80 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
75 | SMU | AAC | 5.75 | 0.69 | 0.43 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
82 | Memphis | AAC | 5.41 | 0.61 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
90 | Temple | AAC | 5.05 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
92 | Houston | AAC | 4.98 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
93 | South Florida | AAC | 4.94 | 0.49 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cincinnati and UCF are the teams to beat in the AAC. Louisville, which finished 2012 at 11-2, does not impress the computer and is projected to finish 4th behind Big Ten-bound Rutgers.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
4 | Florida State | ACC Atlantic | 10.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.06 |
19 | Clemson | ACC Atlantic | 8.75 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
52 | Syracuse | ACC Atlantic | 6.91 | 0.90 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
53 | North Carolina State | ACC Atlantic | 6.87 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
94 | Maryland | ACC Atlantic | 4.85 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
97 | Boston College | ACC Atlantic | 4.64 | 0.40 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
112 | Wake Forest | ACC Atlantic | 3.59 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
17 | North Carolina | ACC Coastal | 8.82 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
49 | Virginia Tech | ACC Coastal | 7.17 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
54 | Pittsburgh | ACC Coastal | 6.81 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
63 | Miami (Florida) | ACC Coastal | 6.32 | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
67 | Georgia Tech | ACC Coastal | 6.08 | 0.77 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
98 | Duke | ACC Coastal | 4.35 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
105 | Virginia | ACC Coastal | 4.01 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Florida State and Clemson are the Atlantic Division favorites to play in the conference championship game. North Carolina and Virginia Tech look to be the favorites in the Coastal Division.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
20 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.70 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
29 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 8.46 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
44 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7.34 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.59 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
46 | TCU | Big 12 | 7.21 | 0.93 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
55 | Texas | Big 12 | 6.73 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.43 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
59 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6.64 | 0.86 | 0.66 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
60 | Baylor | Big 12 | 6.50 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
61 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.47 | 0.81 | 0.61 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
85 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 5.26 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
121 | Kansas | Big 12 | 2.98 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The predicted wins for the Big 12 show a virtual tie for first place, with Kansas State's and Oklahoma State's predicted win totals only .36 games apart. Kansas, to one one's surprise, will struggle to reach three wins.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
31 | Ohio State | Big Ten Leaders | 8.30 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
34 | Wisconsin | Big Ten Leaders | 8.16 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.55 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
35 | Penn State | Big Ten Leaders | 8.06 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
83 | Purdue | Big Ten Leaders | 5.40 | 0.61 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
109 | Indiana | Big Ten Leaders | 3.85 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
116 | Illinois | Big Ten Leaders | 3.27 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
33 | Michigan | Big Ten Legends | 8.21 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
41 | Nebraska | Big Ten Legends | 7.60 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.67 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
42 | Northwestern | Big Ten Legends | 7.59 | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
43 | Michigan State | Big Ten Legends | 7.47 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.62 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
65 | Minnesota | Big Ten Legends | 6.25 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
88 | Iowa | Big Ten Legends | 5.14 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
3 | Oregon | Pac-12 North | 10.59 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
13 | Stanford | Pac-12 North | 9.08 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
32 | Oregon State | Pac-12 North | 8.27 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
71 | Washington | Pac-12 North | 5.84 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
104 | California | Pac-12 North | 4.04 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
106 | Washington State | Pac-12 North | 3.88 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
28 | USC | Pac-12 South | 8.50 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
30 | Arizona State | Pac-12 South | 8.45 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
62 | UCLA | Pac-12 South | 6.39 | 0.83 | 0.61 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
81 | Utah | Pac-12 South | 5.43 | 0.62 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
84 | Arizona | Pac-12 South | 5.37 | 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
124 | Colorado | Pac-12 South | 1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Pac-12 North foes Oregon and Stanford are the class of the Pac-12. Oregon is your favorite to play USC or Arizona State in the conference championship game.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
8 | Georgia | SEC East | 9.54 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.66 | 0.36 | 0.13 | 0.03 |
16 | Vanderbilt | SEC East | 8.82 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
25 | South Carolina | SEC East | 8.58 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
26 | Florida | SEC East | 8.54 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
78 | Tennessee | SEC East | 5.60 | 0.69 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
89 | Missouri | SEC East | 5.12 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
101 | Kentucky | SEC East | 4.10 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
1 | Alabama | SEC West | 10.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
5 | Texas A&M | SEC West | 9.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
38 | LSU | SEC West | 7.84 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 0.45 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
51 | Mississippi State | SEC West | 7.06 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
70 | Mississippi | SEC West | 5.93 | 0.74 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
99 | Arkansas | SEC West | 4.34 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
100 | Auburn | SEC West | 4.27 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Could the 14 Sep Alabama-Texas A&M game be any bigger? For one year at least the normal Alabama/LSU winner-take-all game is moving to College Station. In addition to having the inside track to play Georgia in the SEC Conference Championship Game, the winner is almost certain to sit at #1 in the polls. The middle of the SEC East is pretty crowded, with Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida all within .28 wins of each other and less than one predicted win behind Georgia.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
7 | BYU | Ind | 9.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
21 | Navy | Ind | 8.68 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
47 | Notre Dame | Ind | 7.20 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
91 | Army | Ind | 4.98 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
115 | New Mexico State | Ind | 3.29 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
119 | Idaho | Ind | 3.11 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Notre Dame may have played in the BCS Championship Game last year, but their statistics didn't underwrite their win totals. Look for the numbers to catch up with the Irish this year.
Rank | Team | Conference | Exp. Wins | p(5) | p(6) | p(7) | p(8) | p(9) | p(10) | p(11) | p(12) |
45 | East Carolina | C-USA East | 7.23 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
66 | Marshall | C-USA East | 6.17 | 0.78 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
73 | Middle Tennessee | C-USA East | 5.80 | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
77 | Florida International | C-USA East | 5.65 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
80 | Florida Atlantic | C-USA East | 5.43 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
86 | UAB | C-USA East | 5.18 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
113 | Southern Mississippi | C-USA East | 3.38 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
15 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA West | 8.91 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
23 | Tulsa | C-USA West | 8.63 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
57 | Rice | C-USA West | 6.68 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.42 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
69 | North Texas | C-USA West | 6.05 | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
87 | UTEP | C-USA West | 5.14 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
103 | Tulane | C-USA West | 4.06 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
126 | UTSA | C-USA West | 0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
9 | Ohio | MAC East | 9.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
24 | Bowling Green | MAC East | 8.59 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
96 | Buffalo | MAC East | 4.76 | 0.43 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
107 | Akron | MAC East | 3.88 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
108 | Miami (Ohio) | MAC East | 3.86 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
110 | Kent State | MAC East | 3.84 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
125 | Massachusetts | MAC East | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
2 | Northern Illinois | MAC West | 10.59 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.72 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
37 | Ball State | MAC West | 7.96 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
56 | Western Michigan | MAC West | 6.70 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
58 | Toledo | MAC West | 6.66 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
74 | Central Michigan | MAC West | 5.77 | 0.70 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
120 | Eastern Michigan | MAC West | 3.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
12 | Boise State | MWC Mountain | 9.13 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
22 | Utah State | MWC Mountain | 8.67 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
68 | New Mexico | MWC Mountain | 6.07 | 0.78 | 0.52 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
72 | Air Force | MWC Mountain | 5.83 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
79 | Wyoming | MWC Mountain | 5.58 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
95 | Colorado State | MWC Mountain | 4.83 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
11 | Fresno State | MWC West | 9.17 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
39 | San Jose State | MWC West | 7.81 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.72 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
48 | San Diego State | MWC West | 7.19 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.55 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
76 | Nevada | MWC West | 5.66 | 0.68 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
102 | UNLV | MWC West | 4.10 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
118 | Hawaii | MWC West | 3.15 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
10 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 9.32 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
18 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 8.81 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.74 | 0.44 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
36 | Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 8.02 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
50 | Troy | Sun Belt | 7.15 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.55 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
114 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.32 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
117 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 3.23 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
122 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 2.58 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
123 | Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 2.44 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
The non-AQ schools are the most difficult to model as they tend to exhibit more volatility from year to year than schools from AQ conferences. Nevertheless, Fresno State or Boise Statein the MWC, Tulsa or LA Tech in C-USA, Northern Illinois in the MAC, and Arkansas State in the Sun Belt appear to be safe bets as conference champions. If pressed to identify this year's BCS-buster team I would choose Northern Illinois as the strongest candidate.
Loading comments...