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College football F/+ picks: Week 15

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Football Outsiders picks and projections for Week 15 of the 2013 college football season.

Andy Lyons

Technically I've already shared the projections for this week, so I might as well hammer this post out as well, complete with last week's wretched numbers.

Just a horrendous week for picks last week ... and a great week for unexpected drama. I smell correlation!

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • Week 10
    New: 22-27-1 (45%)
    Old: 24-24-1 (50%)
  • Week 11
    New: 32-20-1 (61%)
    Old: 31-20-1 (61%)
  • Week 12
    New: 24-27 (47%)
    Old: 23-27 (46%)
  • Week 13
    New: 31-26-2 (54%)
    Old: 32-22-1 (59%)
  • Week 14
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 24-34-1 (42%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 388-388-16 (50%)
    Old: 351-327-14 (52%)

I'm going ahead and including the Army-Navy projection below since I'm not really going to feel the need to write a one-game picks post next week. Will try to add in the spreads for both Army-Navy and UCF-SMU (once we know SMU's quarterback situation, I assume) as they come.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning outright
Pick
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Louisville at Cincinnati 3.5 Louisville by 13.5 (34.1 - 20.7) 82.4% Louisville
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN2 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois -3 Bowling Green by 1.1 (32.7 - 31.6) 57.0% Bowling Green
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Central Florida at SMU ??? Central Florida by 19.0 (42.8 - 23.8) 90.7% ???
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -10 Oklahoma State by 13.5 (32.3 - 18.8) 82.4% Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Marshall at Rice 5 Marshall by 4.1 (38.4 - 34.3) 63.9% Rice
Sat 1:00 PM ESPN3 Memphis at Connecticut 0 Memphis by 6.0 (18.6 - 12.6) 68.2% Memphis
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Texas at Baylor -15 Baylor by 18.9 (45.7 - 26.8) 90.7% Baylor
Sat 4:00 PM CBS Missouri at Auburn -2 Auburn by 3.0 (26.4 - 23.4) 61.4% Auburn
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN2 South Florida at Rutgers -6 Rutgers by 2.3 (20.4 - 18.1) 59.7% South Florida
Sat 7:45 PM ESPN Stanford at Arizona State -3 Arizona State by 0.1 (26.4 - 26.3) 54.5% Stanford
Sat 8:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Lafayette at South Alabama -3 South Alabama by 4.3 (37.2 - 32.9) 64.5% South Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Duke at Florida State -29 Florida State by 24.1 (42.0 - 17.9) 96.9% Duke
Sat 8:17 PM Fox Ohio State at Michigan State 6 Ohio State by 4.8 (27.5 - 22.7) 65.5% Michigan State
Sat 10:00 PM CBS Utah State at Fresno State -3.5 Utah State by 4.4 (27.1 - 22.8) 64.6% Utah State
Next Sat 3:00 PM CBS Navy at Army ??? Navy by 11.6 (48.4 - 36.8) 79.2% ???

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Thu 7:30 PM Louisville at Cincinnati 3.5 Louisville by 14.1 Louisville
Fri 8:00 PM Bowling Green at Northern Illinois -3 Northern Illinois by 2.4 Bowling Green
Sat 12:00 PM Central Florida at SMU ??? Central Florida by 20.0 ??? ???
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -10 Oklahoma State by 13.1 Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM Marshall at Rice 5 Marshall by 3.5 Rice
Sat 1:00 PM Memphis at Connecticut 0 Memphis by 6.6 Memphis
Sat 3:30 PM Texas at Baylor -15 Baylor by 17.9 Baylor
Sat 4:00 PM Missouri at Auburn -2 Auburn by 6.8 Auburn
Sat 7:30 PM South Florida at Rutgers -6 Rutgers by 2.4 South Florida
Sat 7:45 PM Stanford at Arizona State -3 Arizona State by 0.1 Stanford
Sat 8:00 PM UL-Lafayette at South Alabama -3 South Alabama by 4.4 South Alabama
Sat 8:00 PM Duke at Florida State -29 Florida State by 27.9 Duke
Sat 8:17 PM Ohio State at Michigan State 6 Ohio State by 1.3 Michigan State
Sat 10:00 PM Utah State at Fresno State -3.5 Utah State by 4.3 Utah State
Next Sat 3:00 PM Navy at Army ??? Navy by 8.3 ??? ???