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Technically I've already shared the projections for this week, so I might as well hammer this post out as well, complete with last week's wretched numbers.
Just a horrendous week for picks last week ... and a great week for unexpected drama. I smell correlation!
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - Week 5
New: 22-24-2 (48%)
Old: 27-19-2 (58%) - Week 6
New: 29-26 (53%)
Old: 27-28 (49%) - Week 7
New: 27-23-1 (54%)
Old: 25-24-1 (51%) - Week 8
New: 21-25-1 (46%)
Old: 24-22-1 (52%) - Week 9
New: 26-24-4 (52%)
Old: 25-24-4 (51%) - Week 10
New: 22-27-1 (45%)
Old: 24-24-1 (50%) - Week 11
New: 32-20-1 (61%)
Old: 31-20-1 (61%) - Week 12
New: 24-27 (47%)
Old: 23-27 (46%) - Week 13
New: 31-26-2 (54%)
Old: 32-22-1 (59%) -
Week 14
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 24-34-1 (42%) - TOTAL
New: 388-388-16 (50%)
Old: 351-327-14 (52%)
I'm going ahead and including the Army-Navy projection below since I'm not really going to feel the need to write a one-game picks post next week. Will try to add in the spreads for both Army-Navy and UCF-SMU (once we know SMU's quarterback situation, I assume) as they come.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning outright |
Pick |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Louisville at Cincinnati | 3.5 | Louisville by 13.5 (34.1 - 20.7) | 82.4% | Louisville |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Bowling Green at Northern Illinois | -3 | Bowling Green by 1.1 (32.7 - 31.6) | 57.0% | Bowling Green |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Central Florida at SMU | ??? | Central Florida by 19.0 (42.8 - 23.8) | 90.7% | ??? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC | Oklahoma at Oklahoma State | -10 | Oklahoma State by 13.5 (32.3 - 18.8) | 82.4% | Oklahoma State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Marshall at Rice | 5 | Marshall by 4.1 (38.4 - 34.3) | 63.9% | Rice |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Memphis at Connecticut | 0 | Memphis by 6.0 (18.6 - 12.6) | 68.2% | Memphis |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Fox | Texas at Baylor | -15 | Baylor by 18.9 (45.7 - 26.8) | 90.7% | Baylor |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | CBS | Missouri at Auburn | -2 | Auburn by 3.0 (26.4 - 23.4) | 61.4% | Auburn |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN2 | South Florida at Rutgers | -6 | Rutgers by 2.3 (20.4 - 18.1) | 59.7% | South Florida |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | ESPN | Stanford at Arizona State | -3 | Arizona State by 0.1 (26.4 - 26.3) | 54.5% | Stanford |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Lafayette at South Alabama | -3 | South Alabama by 4.3 (37.2 - 32.9) | 64.5% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Duke at Florida State | -29 | Florida State by 24.1 (42.0 - 17.9) | 96.9% | Duke |
| Sat | 8:17 PM | Fox | Ohio State at Michigan State | 6 | Ohio State by 4.8 (27.5 - 22.7) | 65.5% | Michigan State |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | CBS | Utah State at Fresno State | -3.5 | Utah State by 4.4 (27.1 - 22.8) | 64.6% | Utah State |
| Next Sat | 3:00 PM | CBS | Navy at Army | ??? | Navy by 11.6 (48.4 - 36.8) | 79.2% | ??? |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Louisville at Cincinnati | 3.5 | Louisville by 14.1 | Louisville | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Bowling Green at Northern Illinois | -3 | Northern Illinois by 2.4 | Bowling Green | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Central Florida at SMU | ??? | Central Florida by 20.0 | ??? | ??? |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma at Oklahoma State | -10 | Oklahoma State by 13.1 | Oklahoma State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Marshall at Rice | 5 | Marshall by 3.5 | Rice | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Memphis at Connecticut | 0 | Memphis by 6.6 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Texas at Baylor | -15 | Baylor by 17.9 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Missouri at Auburn | -2 | Auburn by 6.8 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | South Florida at Rutgers | -6 | Rutgers by 2.4 | South Florida | |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | Stanford at Arizona State | -3 | Arizona State by 0.1 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | UL-Lafayette at South Alabama | -3 | South Alabama by 4.4 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Duke at Florida State | -29 | Florida State by 27.9 | Duke | |
| Sat | 8:17 PM | Ohio State at Michigan State | 6 | Ohio State by 1.3 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Utah State at Fresno State | -3.5 | Utah State by 4.3 | Utah State | |
| Next Sat | 3:00 PM | Navy at Army | ??? | Navy by 8.3 | ??? | ??? |
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