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So my theory was that the New Method would improve and overtake the Old Method as the season progressed and teams separated from one another. That ... has not happened.
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - Week 5
New: 22-24-2 (48%)
Old: 27-19-2 (58%) - Week 6
New: 29-26 (53%)
Old: 27-28 (49%) - Week 7
New: 27-23-1 (54%)
Old: 25-24-1 (51%) - Week 8
New: 21-25-1 (46%)
Old: 24-22-1 (52%) - Week 9
New: 26-24-4 (52%)
Old: 25-24-4 (51%) -
Week 10
New: 22-27-1 (45%)
Old: 24-24-1 (50%) - TOTAL
New: 278-282-13 (50%)
Old: 241-224-11 (52%)
The old method typically clocks in between about 52-54% for a given season, so I guess we're right on track for that again this year. It feels like there have been more key injuries in 2013, which would damage the numbers' overall rates of success (since they really don't take injuries into account), but that's a pure guess. There are injuries every year. Regardless, I guess 52% is better than your odds playing craps. So there's that.
NEW METHOD
Hell of a backdoor cover there, CMU.
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning |
Pick |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Ohio at Buffalo | -4 | Buffalo by 6.6 (34.5 - 27.9) | 69.4% | Buffalo |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma at Baylor | -15 | Baylor by 18.5 (45.4 - 27.0) | 90.0% | Baylor |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | Troy at UL-Lafayette | -14 | UL-Lafayette by 16.5 (48.4 - 31.8) | 87.3% | UL-Lafayette |
| Thu | 9:00 PM | ESPN | Oregon at Stanford | 10.5 | Stanford by 4.8 (27.1 - 22.3) | 65.4% | Stanford |
| Fri | 8:30 PM | ESPN2 | Louisville at Connecticut | 28 | Louisville by 31.2 (35.5 - 4.3) | 100.0% | Louisville |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPNU | Air Force at New Mexico | -3 | New Mexico by 5.0 (48.2 - 43.2) | 66.0% | New Mexico |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Auburn at Tennessee | 8 | Auburn by 13.4 (30.5 - 17.1) | 82.2% | Auburn |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN3 | Florida State at Wake Forest | 35.5 | Florida State by 33.9 (40.6 - 6.7) | 100.0% | Wake Forest |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Iowa at Purdue | 15 | Iowa by 22.3 (31.9 - 9.6) | 94.9% | Iowa |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN3 | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -3 | Kansas State by 3.3 (34.0 - 30.7) | 62.2% | Kansas State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Missouri at Kentucky | 14.5 | Missouri by 23.2 (43.8 - 20.6) | 95.9% | Missouri |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Penn State at Minnesota | -3 | Minnesota by 8.4 (26.9 - 18.6) | 73.0% | Minnesota |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | SMU at Cincinnati | -9 | Cincinnati by 5.4 (32.9 - 27.5) | 66.9% | SMU |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | TCU at Iowa State | 7.5 | TCU by 4.2 (20.1 - 15.9) | 64.2% | Iowa State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | UAB at Marshall | -23.5 | Marshall by 29.5 (59.5 - 30.0) | 100.0% | Marshall | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Vanderbilt at Florida | -10 | Florida by 9.8 (23.2 - 13.4) | 75.7% | Vanderbilt |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBSSN | Western Kentucky at Army | 7 | Western Kentucky by 3.8 (34.7 - 31.0) | 63.2% | Army |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas at Ole Miss | -17 | Ole Miss by 25.7 (41.1 - 15.4) | 98.5% | Ole Miss |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Appalachian State at Georgia | -31.5 | Georgia by 29.5 (46.4 - 16.9) | 100.0% | Appalachian State |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Virginia at North Carolina | -14 | North Carolina by 11.5 (35.0 - 23.6) | 78.9% | Virginia |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | 3 | Western Michigan by 1.9 (31.0 - 29.1) | 58.9% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Tulane at UTSA | -9 | UTSA by 4.8 (26.5 - 21.7) | 65.5% | Tulane | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Fox | USC at California | 17 | USC by 26.9 (31.6 - 4.7) | 99.5% | USC |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at New Mexico State | 24 | Boston College by 19.7 (37.9 - 18.2) | 91.7% | New Mexico State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | BYU at Wisconsin | -7.5 | Wisconsin by 3.8 (21.6 - 17.8) | 63.4% | BYU |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Hawaii at Navy | -17 | Navy by 5.2 (29.7 - 24.5) | 66.5% | Hawaii |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Illinois at Indiana | -10 | Indiana by 10.6 (52.4 - 41.7) | 77.3% | Indiana |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | -19 | Texas A&M by 17.4 (43.9 - 26.5) | 88.5% | Mississippi State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Nebraska at Michigan | -7 | Michigan by 8.9 (32.8 - 23.9) | 74.1% | Michigan |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Nevada at Colorado State | -9.5 | Colorado State by 11.8 (43.3 - 31.5) | 79.5% | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at Maryland | -6 | Maryland by 6.7 (29.2 - 22.5) | 69.6% | Maryland |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTEP at North Texas | -25 | North Texas by 26.6 (43.0 - 16.4) | 99.3% | North Texas | |
| Sat | 3:45 PM | FS1 | Tulsa at East Carolina | -17.5 | East Carolina by 24.9 (37.2 - 12.3) | 97.7% | East Carolina |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Pac-12 | Arizona State at Utah | 7 | Arizona State by 5.4 (37.5 - 32.1) | 66.8% | Utah |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | -18.5 | Middle Tennessee by 21.2 (34.1 - 12.9) | 93.6% | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -31 | Oklahoma State by 31.5 (35.0 - 3.5) | 100.0% | Oklahoma State |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPNU | NC State at Duke | -9 | Duke by 19.5 (40.7 - 21.2) | 91.4% | Duke |
| Sat | 4:30 PM | ESPN3 | UT Martin at Memphis | -14.5 | Memphis by 9.6 (22.3 - 12.7) | 75.5% | UT Martin |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Old Dominion at Idaho | 13 | Old Dominion by 10.9 (29.0 - 18.1) | 77.9% | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at UL-Monroe | -5 | Arkansas State by 0.3 (26.6 - 26.3) | 55.1% | Arkansas State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Houston at Central Florida | -10.5 | Central Florida by 17.9 (47.6 - 29.7) | 89.3% | Central Florida |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | -16 | Louisiana Tech by 9.9 (30.5 - 20.6) | 76.1% | Southern Miss |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Texas at West Virginia | 7 | Texas by 9.1 (34.3 - 25.3) | 74.4% | Texas |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Virginia Tech at Miami-FL | -7 | Miami-FL by 0.3 (21.2 - 20.8) | 55.1% | Virginia Tech |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Pac-12 | Colorado at Washington | -28 | Washington by 29.5 (42.8 - 13.3) | 100.0% | Washington |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBS | LSU at Alabama | -13 | Alabama by 18.9 (40.6 - 21.7) | 90.7% | Alabama |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | 4 | Notre Dame by 9.8 (32.8 - 23.0) | 75.8% | Notre Dame |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPNU | Utah State at UNLV | 14 | Utah State by 19.9 (32.9 - 13.1) | 91.9% | Utah State |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | ESPN | UCLA at Arizona | 1 | Arizona by 2.6 (30.4 - 27.8) | 60.5% | Arizona |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | ESPN2 | Fresno State at Wyoming | 10 | Fresno State by 6.6 (39.1 - 32.5) | 69.4% | Wyoming |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | San Diego State at San Jose State | -7 | San Jose State by 8.3 (35.0 - 26.6) | 72.9% | San Jose State |
OLD (and probably better) METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | Ohio at Buffalo | -4 | Buffalo by 6.4 | Buffalo | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Oklahoma at Baylor | -15 | Baylor by 17.6 | Baylor | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Troy at UL-Lafayette | -14 | UL-Lafayette by 16.3 | UL-Lafayette | |
| Thu | 9:00 PM | Oregon at Stanford | 10.5 | Stanford by 4.5 | Stanford | |
| Fri | 8:30 PM | Louisville at Connecticut | 28 | Louisville by 33.4 | Louisville | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | Air Force at New Mexico | -3 | New Mexico by 4.9 | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Auburn at Tennessee | 8 | Auburn by 14.9 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Florida State at Wake Forest | 35.5 | Florida State by 36.6 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Iowa at Purdue | 15 | Iowa by 23.6 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Kansas State at Texas Tech | -3 | Kansas State by 3.5 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Missouri at Kentucky | 14.5 | Missouri by 24.7 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Penn State at Minnesota | -3 | Minnesota by 8.4 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SMU at Cincinnati | -9 | Cincinnati by 5.7 | SMU | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | TCU at Iowa State | 7.5 | TCU by 4.4 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | UAB at Marshall | -23.5 | Marshall by 26.4 | Marshall | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Vanderbilt at Florida | -10 | Florida by 10.6 | Florida | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Western Kentucky at Army | 7 | Western Kentucky by 4.0 | Army | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Arkansas at Ole Miss | -17 | Ole Miss by 26.4 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Virginia at North Carolina | -14 | North Carolina by 11.2 | Virginia | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan | 3 | Western Michigan by 2.1 | Eastern Michigan | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Tulane at UTSA | -9 | UTSA by 5.2 | Tulane | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | USC at California | 17 | USC by 29.7 | USC | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Boston College at New Mexico State | 24 | Boston College by 22.0 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BYU at Wisconsin | -7.5 | Wisconsin by 3.8 | BYU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Hawaii at Navy | -17 | Navy by 5.5 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Illinois at Indiana | -10 | Indiana by 10.8 | Indiana | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | -19 | Texas A&M by 18.2 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Nebraska at Michigan | -7 | Michigan by 9.2 | Michigan | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Nevada at Colorado State | -9.5 | Colorado State by 11.6 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Syracuse at Maryland | -6 | Maryland by 6.7 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTEP at North Texas | -25 | North Texas by 27.5 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 3:45 PM | Tulsa at East Carolina | -17.5 | East Carolina by 23.2 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Arizona State at Utah | 7 | Arizona State by 5.5 | Utah | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | -18.5 | Middle Tennessee by 22.0 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Kansas at Oklahoma State | -31 | Oklahoma State by 30.2 | Kansas | XXX |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | NC State at Duke | -9 | Duke by 18.5 | Duke | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Old Dominion at Idaho | 13 | Old Dominion by 11.8 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Arkansas State at UL-Monroe | -5 | Arkansas State by 0.4 | Arkansas State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Houston at Central Florida | -10.5 | Central Florida by 17.7 | Central Florida | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech | -16 | Louisiana Tech by 9.3 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Texas at West Virginia | 7 | Texas by 9.2 | Texas | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Virginia Tech at Miami-FL | -7 | Miami-FL by 0.3 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Colorado at Washington | -28 | Washington by 31.2 | Washington | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | LSU at Alabama | -13 | Alabama by 20.5 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | 4 | Notre Dame by 10.5 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Utah State at UNLV | 14 | Utah State by 21.0 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | UCLA at Arizona | 1 | Arizona by 2.3 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 10:15 PM | Fresno State at Wyoming | 10 | Fresno State by 6.7 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | San Diego State at San Jose State | -7 | San Jose State by 8.6 | San Jose State |
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