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Expected Wins after Week 10 and Week 11 Picks

The model loves Oregon and Baylor and picks Nebraska in a straight-up upset at Michigan.

Jonathan Ferrey

FBS expected wins after Week 10

Week 11 Picks

Scout's honor ... I didn't fudge the Ohio-Buffalo pick. It came out of the model this way.

There are a lot of very close games this week. I expect that the model's correct pick rate will not be the best this week. These .55-.45 games are really tossups.

Thursday might the be best college football Thursday-that-wasn't-in-January of all-time. The model has Oregon and Baylor as overwhelming favorites over Stanford and Oklahoma.

And of particular interest to me is the model's pick of Nebraska over Michigan .57 - .43 probability of win. I'll take that.