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Study Hall: Michigan State 29, Michigan 6

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Gregory Shamus

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

I know that "Michigan State held Michigan to minus-48 yards rushing!" stat is pretty funny, but ... it includes sack yards. I hate counting sack yards as rushing yards. BUT...

...the non-sack production might actually be funnier: 22 carries, one yard. I'm not sure I've ever come across a team averaging negative line yards per carry, but see below. And in the end, if Michigan State's offense is faring better on passing downs than you are on standard downs, you're getting whipped. It's "29-6" whipped and not "58-14" whipped, but it's whipped all the same. And it hurts more, too.

Michigan State 29, Michigan 6

Michigan State Michigan State
Close % 94.7% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 39.0% 55.6% Success Rate 32.3% 38.5%
Leverage % 56.4% 56.5% PPP 0.29 0.55
S&P 0.614 0.931
TOTAL
EqPts 14.3 36.4 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 25.5% 36.2% Success Rate 16.7% 33.3%
Close PPP 0.25 0.54 PPP 0.20 0.53
Close S&P 0.507 0.900 S&P 0.368 0.861
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts -0.3 14.3 Number 1 1
Close Success Rate 14.3% 31.4% Turnover Pts 3.7 4.4
Close PPP -0.02 0.43 Turnover Pts Margin +0.7 -0.7
Close S&P 0.127 0.744
Line Yards/carry -0.55 2.51 Q1 S&P 0.511 0.547
Q2 S&P 0.837 0.843
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.016 0.766
EqPts 14.7 22.1 Q4 S&P 0.555 1.116
Close Success Rate 32.4% 41.2%
Close PPP 0.42 0.65 1st Down S&P 0.600 0.790
Close S&P 0.742 1.061 2nd Down S&P 0.611 0.641
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 33.3% 0.0% / 4.6% 3rd Down S&P 0.123 1.239
Projected Pt. Margin: Michigan State +21.3 | Actual Pt. Margin: Michigan State +23