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Study Hall: Auburn 35, Arkansas 17

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Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

The projected point margins rarely work out as well as the one below did. Auburn gained what would typically amount to about 35.6 points and, due in part to turnovers, was projected to win by about 18.6 points. I'll take that.

Red flag: A 44 percent success rate on passing downs is too much to allow to Arkansas.

In no way red flag: Auburn barely faced any passing downs itself because wow, was the running game clicking.

Auburn 35, Arkansas 17

Auburn Arkansas Auburn Arkansas
Close % 82.9% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 52.7% 46.0% Success Rate 63.2% 44.2%
Leverage % 79.2% 72.9% PPP 0.64 0.32
S&P 1.270 0.766
TOTAL
EqPts 35.6 30.4 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 56.3% 44.1% Success Rate 30.0% 43.8%
Close PPP 0.72 0.43 PPP 1.05 0.70
Close S&P 1.286 0.866 S&P 1.348 1.134
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 23.6 19.8 Number 0 3
Close Success Rate 57.9% 48.7% Turnover Pts 0.0 13.4
Close PPP 0.60 0.45 Turnover Pts Margin +13.4 -13.4
Close S&P 1.183 0.937
Line Yards/carry 3.97 3.32 Q1 S&P 1.471 0.860
Q2 S&P 0.908 0.833
PASSING Q3 S&P 1.332 0.980
EqPts 12.0 10.6 Q4 S&P 0.931 0.750
Close Success Rate 50.0% 35.0%
Close PPP 1.18 0.38 1st Down S&P 1.167 0.809
Close S&P 1.678 0.726 2nd Down S&P 0.780 0.803
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 0.0% 20.0% / 20.0% 3rd Down S&P 1.653 1.033
Projected Pt. Margin: Auburn +18.6 | Actual Pt. Margin: Auburn +18

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