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College football F/+ picks: Week 14

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Football Outsiders picks and projections for Week 14 of the 2013 college football season.

Spruce Derden-US PRESSWIRE

Bring on Rivalry Week and its silly trophies!

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • Week 10
    New: 22-27-1 (45%)
    Old: 24-24-1 (50%)
  • Week 11
    New: 32-20-1 (61%)
    Old: 31-20-1 (61%)
  • Week 12
    New: 24-27 (47%)
    Old: 23-27 (46%)
  • Week 13
    New: 31-26-2 (54%)
    Old: 32-22-1 (59%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 363-355-16 (50%)
    Old: 327-293-13 (53%)

Solid 55% for Old Method so far in November ... I'll take that.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning outright
Pick
Tue 7:00 PM ESPN2 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois -35 Northern Illinois by 30.2 (42.2 - 12.0) 99.0% Western Michigan
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Ole Miss at Mississippi State 4.5 Ole Miss by 4.2 (26.3 - 22.1) 64.1% Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Texas Tech at Texas -4.5 Texas by 5.4 (39.3 - 33.9) 66.8% Texas
Fri 12:00 PM CBSSN East Carolina at Marshall -3 East Carolina by 6.2 (40.9 - 34.7) 68.5% East Carolina
Fri 12:00 PM ABC Iowa at Nebraska -3 Iowa by 1.7 (26.2 - 24.4) 58.5% Iowa
Fri 12:00 PM ESPN2 SMU at Houston -9.5 Houston by 15.3 (39.6 - 24.3) 85.4% Houston
Fri 12:00 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Akron 7.5 Toledo by 14.2 (35.5 - 21.3) 83.6% Toledo
Fri 1:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Ball State -34.5 Ball State by 34.1 (44.0 - 9.9) 99.0% Miami-OH
Fri 1:30 PM ESPNU Bowling Green at Buffalo 1.5 Buffalo by 0.2 (31.1 - 30.9) 54.9% Buffalo
Fri 2:00 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan -19 Central Michigan by 11.7 (37.4 - 25.7) 79.3% Eastern Michigan
Fri 2:00 PM ESPN3 Massachusetts at Ohio -16.5 Ohio by 11.5 (33.0 - 21.6) 78.9% Massachusetts
Fri 2:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State at Troy -7 Troy by 2.0 (30.2 - 28.2) 59.0% Texas State
Fri 2:30 PM CBS Arkansas at LSU -24.5 LSU by 28.8 (49.8 - 21.0) 99.0% LSU
Fri 3:00 PM FS1 Florida International at Florida Atlantic -28 Florida Atlantic by 31.8 (35.9 - 4.0) 99.0% Florida Atlantic
Fri 3:30 PM CBSSN Fresno State at San Jose State 7.5 Fresno State by 10.4 (41.7 - 31.4) 76.9% Fresno State
Fri 3:30 PM ABC Miami-FL at Pittsburgh 3 Miami-FL by 4.8 (34.1 - 29.3) 65.4% Miami-FL
Fri 3:30 PM Fox Washington State at Washington -16.5 Washington by 18.2 (38.5 - 20.2) 89.7% Washington
Fri 7:00 PM FS1 Oregon State at Oregon -21.5 Oregon by 26.0 (48.7 - 22.7) 98.7% Oregon
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN South Florida at Central Florida -27 Central Florida by 29.1 (40.0 - 10.9) 99.0% Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Duke at North Carolina -6 North Carolina by 2.4 (35.7 - 33.3) 60.1% Duke
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Florida State at Florida 27 Florida State by 23.6 (30.0 - 6.5) 96.3% Florida
Sat 12:00 PM FS1 Kansas State at Kansas 16 Kansas State by 24.6 (37.8 - 13.2) 97.4% Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Minnesota at Michigan State -14.5 Michigan State by 19.0 (28.1 - 9.1) 90.7% Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM ABC Ohio State at Michigan 15 Ohio State by 13.5 (34.0 - 20.5) 82.4% Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Rutgers at Connecticut 3 Connecticut by 0.9 (19.0 - 18.1) 56.5% Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Temple at Memphis -8.5 Memphis by 15.8 (30.7 - 14.9) 86.2% Memphis
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Wake Forest at Vanderbilt -14.5 Vanderbilt by 11.6 (26.0 - 14.4) 79.1% Wake Forest
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Maryland at NC State 3 Maryland by 2.3 (25.6 - 23.3) 59.9% NC State
Sat 1:00 PM Southern Miss at UAB -14.5 UAB by 7.7 (35.0 - 27.4) 71.6% Southern Miss
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Air Force at Colorado State -16 Colorado State by 15.8 (43.8 - 28.0) 86.2% Air Force
Sat 2:00 PM Pac-12 Colorado at Utah -17 Utah by 25.8 (41.3 - 15.6) 98.5% Utah
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Georgia State 8 South Alabama by 14.7 (40.3 - 25.6) 84.4% South Alabama
Sat 2:00 PM Wyoming at Utah State -21 Utah State by 24.1 (36.8 - 12.7) 96.8% Utah State
Sat 2:30 PM North Texas at Tulsa 5 North Texas by 6.3 (23.5 - 17.1) 68.8% North Texas
Sat 3:00 PM CBSSN BYU at Nevada 14 BYU by 21.8 (45.7 - 23.9) 94.3% BYU
Sat 3:00 PM Tulane at Rice -11 Rice by 4.9 (25.1 - 20.2) 65.7% Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Alabama at Auburn 11 Alabama by 10.8 (27.8 - 16.9) 77.8% Auburn
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN2 Baylor at TCU 11.5 Baylor by 22.1 (36.1 - 14.0) 94.6% Baylor
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at Syracuse 2 Boston College by 5.8 (31.1 - 25.3) 67.7% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM ABC Georgia at Georgia Tech 3 Georgia by 1.9 (39.6 - 37.7) 58.9% Georgia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Idaho at New Mexico State -3 New Mexico State by 2.1 (26.7 - 24.6) 59.4% Idaho
Sat 3:30 PM Louisiana Tech at UTSA -16.5 UTSA by 21.3 (41.7 - 20.3) 93.7% UTSA
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Northwestern at Illinois 3.5 Northwestern by 2.7 (33.5 - 30.7) 60.9% Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Penn State at Wisconsin -24 Wisconsin by 31.8 (37.6 - 5.8) 99.0% Wisconsin
Sat 3:30 PM BTN Purdue at Indiana -21 Indiana by 23.4 (48.1 - 24.7) 96.1% Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Virginia Tech at Virginia 13 Virginia Tech by 20.2 (22.1 - 1.9) 92.4% Virginia Tech
Sat 3:45 PM UTEP at Middle Tennessee -23 Middle Tennessee by 21.1 (43.3 - 22.1) 93.5% UTEP
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Arkansas State at Western Kentucky -6.5 Western Kentucky by 9.3 (30.2 - 20.9) 74.8% Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM FS1 Iowa State at West Virginia -8 West Virginia by 4.6 (27.1 - 22.5) 65.1% Iowa State
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 Clemson at South Carolina -5 South Carolina by 2.4 (32.6 - 30.2) 60.2% Clemson
Sat 7:00 PM Fox Notre Dame at Stanford -14.5 Stanford by 16.4 (34.4 - 18.0) 87.1% Stanford
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Tennessee at Kentucky 4 Tennessee by 2.7 (30.2 - 27.5) 60.8% Kentucky
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette -15 UL-Lafayette by 17.4 (38.3 - 20.9) 88.6% UL-Lafayette
Sat 7:45 PM ESPN Texas A&M at Missouri -4.5 Missouri by 8.6 (41.7 - 33.1) 73.5% Missouri
Sat 8:00 PM ABC UCLA at USC -3.5 USC by 9.2 (25.8 - 16.6) 74.7% USC
Sat 9:30 PM Pac-12 Arizona at Arizona State -13 Arizona State by 16.8 (41.5 - 24.8) 87.6% Arizona State
Sat 10:15 PM ESPN2 New Mexico at Boise State -37 Boise State by 26.2 (53.7 - 27.5) 98.9% New Mexico
Sat 10:30 PM ESPNU San Diego State at UNLV 3.5 San Diego State by 1.5 (21.8 - 20.3) 57.9% UNLV
Sat 11:00 PM Army at Hawaii -7 Hawaii by 8.7 (35.5 - 26.9) 73.6% Hawaii

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 7:00 PM Western Michigan at Northern Illinois -35 Northern Illinois by 28.3 Western Michigan
Thu 7:30 PM Ole Miss at Mississippi State 4.5 Ole Miss by 4.1 Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM Texas Tech at Texas -4.5 Texas by 5.3 Texas
Fri 12:00 PM East Carolina at Marshall -3 East Carolina by 5.3 East Carolina
Fri 12:00 PM Iowa at Nebraska -3 Iowa by 1.6 Iowa
Fri 12:00 PM SMU at Houston -9.5 Houston by 14.4 Houston
Fri 12:00 PM Toledo at Akron 7.5 Toledo by 13.1 Toledo
Fri 1:00 PM Miami-OH at Ball State -34.5 Ball State by 32.4 Miami-OH
Fri 1:30 PM Bowling Green at Buffalo 1.5 Buffalo by 0.3 Buffalo
Fri 2:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan -19 Central Michigan by 12.9 Eastern Michigan
Fri 2:00 PM Massachusetts at Ohio -16.5 Ohio by 10.9 Massachusetts
Fri 2:00 PM Texas State at Troy -7 Troy by 2.0 Texas State
Fri 2:30 PM Arkansas at LSU -24.5 LSU by 29.5 LSU
Fri 3:00 PM Florida International at Florida Atlantic -28 Florida Atlantic by 31.9 Florida Atlantic
Fri 3:30 PM Fresno State at San Jose State 7.5 Fresno State by 9.8 Fresno State
Fri 3:30 PM Miami-FL at Pittsburgh 3 Miami-FL by 4.8 Miami-FL
Fri 3:30 PM Washington State at Washington -16.5 Washington by 18.5 Washington
Fri 7:00 PM Oregon State at Oregon -21.5 Oregon by 23.5 Oregon
Fri 8:00 PM South Florida at Central Florida -27 Central Florida by 29.8 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM Duke at North Carolina -6 North Carolina by 2.3 Duke
Sat 12:00 PM Florida State at Florida 27 Florida State by 24.8 Florida
Sat 12:00 PM Kansas State at Kansas 16 Kansas State by 24.4 Kansas State
Sat 12:00 PM Minnesota at Michigan State -14.5 Michigan State by 19.1 Michigan State
Sat 12:00 PM Ohio State at Michigan 15 Ohio State by 13.8 Michigan
Sat 12:00 PM Rutgers at Connecticut 3 Connecticut by 1.1 Connecticut
Sat 12:00 PM Temple at Memphis -8.5 Memphis by 17.0 Memphis
Sat 12:21 PM Wake Forest at Vanderbilt -14.5 Vanderbilt by 11.9 Wake Forest
Sat 12:30 PM Maryland at NC State 3 Maryland by 2.2 NC State
Sat 1:00 PM Southern Miss at UAB -14.5 UAB by 7.7 Southern Miss
Sat 2:00 PM Air Force at Colorado State -16 Colorado State by 15.8 Air Force
Sat 2:00 PM Colorado at Utah -17 Utah by 26.7 Utah
Sat 2:00 PM South Alabama at Georgia State 8 South Alabama by 14.3 South Alabama
Sat 2:00 PM Wyoming at Utah State -21 Utah State by 24.2 Utah State
Sat 2:30 PM North Texas at Tulsa 5 North Texas by 5.6 North Texas
Sat 3:00 PM BYU at Nevada 14 BYU by 18.8 BYU
Sat 3:00 PM Tulane at Rice -11 Rice by 4.8 Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM Alabama at Auburn 11 Alabama by 12.1 Alabama XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Baylor at TCU 11.5 Baylor by 20.0 Baylor
Sat 3:30 PM Boston College at Syracuse 2 Boston College by 5.5 Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM Georgia at Georgia Tech 3 Georgia by 1.8 Georgia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Idaho at New Mexico State -3 New Mexico State by 2.3 Idaho
Sat 3:30 PM Louisiana Tech at UTSA -16.5 UTSA by 19.2 UTSA
Sat 3:30 PM Northwestern at Illinois 3.5 Northwestern by 2.6 Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM Penn State at Wisconsin -24 Wisconsin by 30.6 Wisconsin
Sat 3:30 PM Purdue at Indiana -21 Indiana by 21.9 Indiana
Sat 3:30 PM Virginia Tech at Virginia 13 Virginia Tech by 19.3 Virginia Tech
Sat 3:45 PM UTEP at Middle Tennessee -23 Middle Tennessee by 21.5 UTEP
Sat 4:00 PM Arkansas State at Western Kentucky -6.5 Western Kentucky by 9.4 Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM Iowa State at West Virginia -8 West Virginia by 4.4 Iowa State
Sat 7:00 PM Clemson at South Carolina -5 South Carolina by 2.4 Clemson
Sat 7:00 PM Notre Dame at Stanford -14.5 Stanford by 16.7 Stanford
Sat 7:00 PM Tennessee at Kentucky 4 Tennessee by 2.6 Kentucky
Sat 7:00 PM UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette -15 UL-Lafayette by 17.1 UL-Lafayette
Sat 7:45 PM Texas A&M at Missouri -4.5 Missouri by 8.3 Missouri
Sat 8:00 PM UCLA at USC -3.5 USC by 9.1 USC
Sat 9:30 PM Arizona at Arizona State -13 Arizona State by 14.6 Arizona State
Sat 10:15 PM New Mexico at Boise State -37 Boise State by 26.9 New Mexico
Sat 10:30 PM San Diego State at UNLV 3.5 San Diego State by 1.4 UNLV
Sat 11:00 PM Army at Hawaii -7 Hawaii by 8.4 Hawaii