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Had to figure Week 11 was too good to be true. In Week 12, we saw some predictable regression toward (and past) the mean, huh?
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - Week 5
New: 22-24-2 (48%)
Old: 27-19-2 (58%) - Week 6
New: 29-26 (53%)
Old: 27-28 (49%) - Week 7
New: 27-23-1 (54%)
Old: 25-24-1 (51%) - Week 8
New: 21-25-1 (46%)
Old: 24-22-1 (52%) - Week 9
New: 26-24-4 (52%)
Old: 25-24-4 (51%) - Week 10
New: 22-27-1 (45%)
Old: 24-24-1 (50%) - Week 11
New: 32-20-1 (61%)
Old: 31-20-1 (61%) -
Week 12
New: 24-27 (47%)
Old: 23-27 (46%) - TOTAL
New: 332-329-14 (50%)
Old: 295-271-12 (52%)
Including this week's games, the picks are now 3-7 on mid-week MACTION over these last few weeks. MACTION is too strong for numbers, obviously. But you didn't need me to tell you that.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning outright |
Pick |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Rice at UAB | 19 | Rice by 20.8 (48.4 - 27.6) | 93.1% | Rice |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Rutgers at Central Florida | -17 | Central Florida by 25.7 (40.7 - 15.0) | 98.5% | Central Florida |
| Thu | 9:30 PM | ESPNU | UNLV at Air Force | -1 | Air Force by 0.4 (38.9 - 38.4) | 55.3% | UNLV |
| Fri | 9:30 PM | ESPN2 | Navy at San Jose State | -2 | Navy by 3.4 (43.1 - 39.6) | 62.5% | Navy |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Cincinnati at Houston | -3 | Houston by 12.4 (36.9 - 24.5) | 80.6% | Houston |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Duke at Wake Forest | 5.5 | Duke by 11.8 (29.1 - 17.3) | 79.4% | Duke |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Illinois at Purdue | 7 | Illinois by 12.4 (37.4 - 24.9) | 80.6% | Illinois |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Memphis at Louisville | -24.5 | Louisville by 24.3 (30.2 - 5.9) | 97.1% | Memphis |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Michigan at Iowa | -6 | Iowa by 3.0 (23.2 - 20.2) | 61.4% | Michigan |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Michigan State at Northwestern | 7 | Michigan State by 10.5 (21.4 - 10.9) | 77.1% | Michigan State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Oklahoma at Kansas State | -4 | Kansas State by 6.6 (32.7 - 26.2) | 69.3% | Kansas State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Old Dominion at North Carolina | -17 | North Carolina by 18.6 (38.9 - 20.3) | 90.2% | North Carolina |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | The Citadel at Clemson | -39.5 | Clemson by 32.2 (43.5 - 11.3) | 99.0% | The Citadel |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Virginia at Miami-FL | -20 | Miami-FL by 20.5 (43.2 - 22.7) | 92.7% | Miami-FL |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | Mississippi State at Arkansas | 1.5 | Mississippi State by 7.5 (29.7 - 22.2) | 71.2% | Mississippi State |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | East Carolina at NC State | 7 | East Carolina by 13.5 (32.1 - 18.6) | 82.4% | East Carolina |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | 1 | Pittsburgh by 7.6 (26.4 - 18.9) | 71.4% | Pittsburgh |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan | 24.5 | Bowling Green by 24.0 (49.4 - 25.5) | 96.7% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Coastal Carolina at South Carolina | -34.5 | South Carolina by 28.2 (41.6 - 13.5) | 99.0% | Coastal Carolina |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Central Michigan | -10 | Central Michigan by 4.3 (29.2 - 24.9) | 64.5% | Massachusetts |
| Sat | 1:30 PM | ESPN3 | Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech | -51.5 | Georgia Tech by 37.7 (48.6 - 10.9) | 99.0% | Alabama A&M |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Chattanooga at Alabama | -49 | Alabama by 45.6 (44.1 - -1.4) | 99.0% | Chattanooga |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia Southern at Florida | -27.5 | Florida by 16.4 (24.4 - 8.0) | 87.0% | Georgia Southern |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Hawaii at Wyoming | -7 | Hawaii by 1.6 (25.3 - 23.7) | 58.2% | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Arkansas State | -23.5 | Arkansas State by 19.0 (40.7 - 21.7) | 90.8% | Georgia State |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic | -22 | Florida Atlantic by 20.0 (32.6 - 12.6) | 92.1% | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Boston College at Maryland | -1 | Boston College by 0.9 (28.6 - 27.8) | 56.4% | Boston College |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | BYU at Notre Dame | 1 | BYU by 0.6 (25.9 - 25.4) | 55.7% | Notre Dame |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | Colorado State at Utah State | -7.5 | Utah State by 13.2 (29.6 - 16.4) | 81.9% | Utah State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Idaho at Florida State | -58 | Florida State by 56.6 (52.9 - -3.7) | 99.0% | Idaho |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Indiana at Ohio State | -34.5 | Ohio State by 24.6 (57.0 - 32.4) | 97.4% | Indiana |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss | 23 | Middle Tennessee by 16.2 (31.4 - 15.2) | 86.7% | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Nebraska at Penn State | -2 | Nebraska by 6.3 (30.8 - 24.5) | 68.8% | Nebraska |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Oregon at Arizona | 21 | Oregon by 18.1 (44.2 - 26.1) | 89.5% | Arizona |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Texas A&M at LSU | -4.5 | LSU by 1.0 (48.0 - 47.0) | 56.8% | Texas A&M |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Pac-12 | Utah at Washington State | -1.5 | Utah by 9.7 (31.4 - 21.7) | 75.6% | Utah |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTEP at Tulane | -17 | Tulane by 17.0 (35.5 - 18.5) | 87.9% | UTEP | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTSA at North Texas | -8 | North Texas by 11.0 (27.3 - 16.2) | 78.1% | North Texas | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Wisconsin at Minnesota | 16.5 | Wisconsin by 16.5 (32.2 - 15.7) | 87.2% | Wisconsin |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | FS1 | California at Stanford | -31.5 | Stanford by 45.4 (46.6 - 1.3) | 99.0% | Stanford |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | ESPN News | New Mexico at Fresno State | -31 | Fresno State by 23.8 (54.4 - 30.6) | 96.5% | New Mexico |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Marshall at Florida International | 33 | Marshall by 33.2 (50.1 - 16.8) | 99.0% | Marshall | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Arizona State at UCLA | 3 | Arizona State by 5.5 (33.1 - 27.6) | 67.1% | Arizona State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Connecticut at Temple | -8.5 | Temple by 2.0 (24.3 - 22.3) | 59.1% | Connecticut |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Kentucky at Georgia | -24 | Georgia by 26.6 (50.5 - 24.0) | 99.0% | Georgia |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | SMU at South Florida | 4 | SMU by 2.5 (27.0 - 24.5) | 60.4% | South Florida |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | CBSSN | Tulsa at Louisiana Tech | 3 | Tulsa by 7.3 (31.7 - 24.4) | 70.9% | Tulsa |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe at South Alabama | -3.5 | South Alabama by 15.2 (36.8 - 21.6) | 85.1% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | -3 | Vanderbilt by 6.1 (30.0 - 24.0) | 68.3% | Vanderbilt |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | LHN | Western Kentucky at Texas State | 4 | Western Kentucky by 5.9 (21.6 - 15.7) | 67.9% | Western Kentucky |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | ESPN | Missouri at Ole Miss | 3 | Missouri by 2.0 (26.2 - 24.3) | 59.1% | Ole Miss |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Baylor at Oklahoma State | 9.5 | Baylor by 12.2 (37.7 - 25.5) | 80.3% | Baylor |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | FS1 | Kansas at Iowa State | -6 | Iowa State by 7.8 (24.5 - 16.7) | 71.8% | Iowa State |
| Sat | 9:30 PM | Pac-12 | USC at Colorado | 22 | USC by 29.2 (35.8 - 6.6) | 99.0% | USC |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at San Diego State | 6.5 | Boise State by 12.6 (32.3 - 19.7) | 80.9% | Boise State |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Washington at Oregon State | N/A | Washington by 4.2 (33.3 - 29.1) | 64.2% | ??? |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | Buffalo at Miami-OH | 24.5 | Buffalo by 20.7 | Miami-OH | |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | Kent State at Ohio | -6.5 | Ohio by 6.8 | Ohio | |
| Wed | 8:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Toledo | 3 | Toledo by 4.9 | Toledo | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Rice at UAB | 19 | Rice by 18.8 | UAB | XXX |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Rutgers at Central Florida | -17 | Central Florida by 27.4 | Central Florida | |
| Thu | 9:30 PM | UNLV at Air Force | -1 | Air Force by 0.5 | UNLV | |
| Fri | 9:30 PM | Navy at San Jose State | -2 | Navy by 3.4 | Navy | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Cincinnati at Houston | -3 | Houston by 11.8 | Houston | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Duke at Wake Forest | 5.5 | Duke by 11.4 | Duke | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Illinois at Purdue | 7 | Illinois by 12.3 | Illinois | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Memphis at Louisville | -24.5 | Louisville by 25.1 | Louisville | XXX |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Michigan at Iowa | -6 | Iowa by 3.3 | Michigan | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Michigan State at Northwestern | 7 | Michigan State by 9.7 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Oklahoma at Kansas State | -4 | Kansas State by 6.8 | Kansas State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Old Dominion at North Carolina | -17 | North Carolina by 17.8 | North Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Virginia at Miami-FL | -20 | Miami-FL by 20.4 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Mississippi State at Arkansas | 1.5 | Mississippi State by 7.7 | Mississippi State | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | East Carolina at NC State | 7 | East Carolina by 12.4 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Pittsburgh at Syracuse | 1 | Pittsburgh by 7.1 | Pittsburgh | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan | 24.5 | Bowling Green by 25.1 | Bowling Green | XXX |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Massachusetts at Central Michigan | -10 | Central Michigan by 4.6 | Massachusetts | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Hawaii at Wyoming | -7 | Hawaii by 1.5 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Georgia State at Arkansas State | -23.5 | Arkansas State by 18.3 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic | -22 | Florida Atlantic by 21.0 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Boston College at Maryland | -1 | Boston College by 0.8 | Boston College | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BYU at Notre Dame | 1 | BYU by 0.4 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Colorado State at Utah State | -7.5 | Utah State by 14.1 | Utah State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Idaho at Florida State | -58 | Florida State by 59.7 | Florida State | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Indiana at Ohio State | -34.5 | Ohio State by 23.2 | Indiana | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss | 23 | Middle Tennessee by 16.6 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Nebraska at Penn State | -2 | Nebraska by 5.6 | Nebraska | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Oregon at Arizona | 21 | Oregon by 15.1 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Texas A&M at LSU | -4.5 | LSU by 1.1 | Texas A&M | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Utah at Washington State | -1.5 | Utah by 9.8 | Utah | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTEP at Tulane | -17 | Tulane by 17.7 | Tulane | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTSA at North Texas | -8 | North Texas by 11.1 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Wisconsin at Minnesota | 16.5 | Wisconsin by 17.0 | Wisconsin | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | California at Stanford | -31.5 | Stanford by 46.3 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | New Mexico at Fresno State | -31 | Fresno State by 22.8 | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Marshall at Florida International | 33 | Marshall by 28.7 | Florida International | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Arizona State at UCLA | 3 | Arizona State by 4.8 | Arizona State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Connecticut at Temple | -8.5 | Temple by 2.2 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Kentucky at Georgia | -24 | Georgia by 28.1 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | SMU at South Florida | 4 | SMU by 2.5 | South Florida | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Tulsa at Louisiana Tech | 3 | Tulsa by 5.8 | Tulsa | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | UL-Monroe at South Alabama | -3.5 | South Alabama by 14.5 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | -3 | Vanderbilt by 5.9 | Vanderbilt | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Western Kentucky at Texas State | 4 | Western Kentucky by 6.2 | Western Kentucky | |
| Sat | 7:45 PM | Missouri at Ole Miss | 3 | Missouri by 1.8 | Ole Miss | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Baylor at Oklahoma State | 9.5 | Baylor by 10.5 | Baylor | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Kansas at Iowa State | -6 | Iowa State by 7.6 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 9:30 PM | USC at Colorado | 22 | USC by 30.4 | USC | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Boise State at San Diego State | 6.5 | Boise State by 12.7 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Washington at Oregon State | N/A | Washington by 4.1 | ??? | ??? |
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