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I mean ... hey ... I guess there's value in being able to pick games almost exactly as well as Vegas does, right? Right? Maybe? 50% is good, right? Better than 40%?
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - Week 5
New: 22-24-2 (48%)
Old: 27-19-2 (58%) - Week 6
New: 29-26 (53%)
Old: 27-28 (49%) - Week 7
New: 27-23-1 (54%)
Old: 25-24-1 (51%) - Week 8
New: 21-25-1 (46%)
Old: 24-22-1 (52%) -
Week 9
New: 26-24-4 (52%)
Old: 25-24-4 (51%) - TOTAL
New: 256-255-13 (50%)
Old: 217-200-11 (52%)
Meanwhile, I think we can probably discontinue to the HYBRID approach. The two methods are agreeing on most games now, so it kind of ruins the point. Before the Week 8 FULL NUMBERS BLOWOUT, however, there might be some value in that.
- Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
Week 8: 21-22-1 (49%)
Week 9: 24-24-3 (50%)
TOTAL: 163-138-7 (54%)
It's nice being 0-1 for the week before you even get the picks posted...Memphis' defense didn't really show like I figured it would last night.
(And if you bet any money whatsoever on tonight's ASU-Wazzu game -- a night game ... with students off ... on Halloween ... in the middle of nowhere ... and it's cold... -- you're insane.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning |
Pick |
| Wed | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | Cincinnati at Memphis | -3.0 | Memphis by 8.6 (21.5 - 12.9) | 73.4% | Memphis |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | ESPN | South Florida at Houston | -19.0 | Houston by 24.6 (38.5 - 13.9) | 97.4% | Houston |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Rice at North Texas | -4.0 | North Texas by 10.2 (30.2 - 20.0) | 76.5% | North Texas |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPNU | UL-Monroe at Troy | -3.0 | Troy by 3.3 (35.3 - 32.0) | 62.2% | Troy |
| Thu | 10:30 PM | ESPN | Arizona State at Washington State | 12.0 | Arizona State by 22.9 (45.2 - 22.3) | 95.6% | Arizona State |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | USC at Oregon State | -3.5 | USC by 6.9 (24.4 - 17.5) | 70.1% | USC |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Army at Air Force | 0.0 | Army by 5.2 (48.7 - 43.6) | 66.3% | Army |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | Illinois at Penn State | -10.0 | Penn State by 5.7 (33.4 - 27.8) | 67.4% | Illinois |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Massachusetts | 23.0 | Northern Illinois by 20.6 (37.0 - 16.5) | 92.8% | Massachusetts |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Ohio State at Purdue | 32.0 | Ohio State by 36.1 (49.0 - 12.9) | 99.0% | Ohio State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | Temple at Rutgers | -14.0 | Rutgers by 14.6 (34.5 - 19.8) | 84.3% | Rutgers |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Virginia Tech at Boston College | 5.0 | Virginia Tech by 19.0 (22.4 - 3.5) | 90.7% | Virginia Tech |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Wisconsin at Iowa | 10.0 | Wisconsin by 6.3 (28.2 - 21.9) | 68.7% | Iowa |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | Mississippi State at South Carolina | -12.0 | South Carolina by 17.0 (34.7 - 17.6) | 88.0% | South Carolina |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | North Carolina at NC State | 4.0 | North Carolina by 11.4 (39.2 - 27.8) | 78.8% | North Carolina |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | CBSSN | Southern Miss at Marshall | -31.0 | Marshall by 29.9 (46.5 - 16.6) | 99.0% | Southern Miss |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -3.0 | Wake Forest by 0.7 (24.5 - 23.8) | 56.0% | Wake Forest |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | FS1 | Middle Tennessee at UAB | 4.0 | Middle Tennessee by 13.3 (43.4 - 30.0) | 82.2% | Middle Tennessee |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Western Kentucky at Georgia State | 20.0 | Western Kentucky by 17.2 (33.4 - 16.2) | 88.2% | Georgia State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Pac-12 | Arizona at California | 16.0 | Arizona by 25.8 (43.7 - 17.9) | 98.5% | Arizona |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Clemson at Virginia | 17.0 | Clemson by 12.0 (30.2 - 18.3) | 79.8% | Virginia |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | FS1 | Iowa State at Kansas State | -17.0 | Kansas State by 15.3 (35.1 - 19.8) | 85.4% | Iowa State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | LHN | Kansas at Texas | -28.0 | Texas by 23.8 (37.1 - 13.4) | 96.5% | Kansas |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at Akron | -1.0 | Akron by 7.0 (34.6 - 27.5) | 70.3% | Akron |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC | Michigan at Michigan State | -6.0 | Michigan State by 6.0 (19.2 - 13.2) | 68.2% | Michigan State |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Minnesota at Indiana | -10.0 | Indiana by 7.8 (46.1 - 38.3) | 71.8% | Minnesota |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | NBC | Navy at Notre Dame | -17.0 | Notre Dame by 21.4 (42.3 - 20.9) | 93.9% | Notre Dame |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Northwestern at Nebraska | -7.0 | Nebraska by 4.0 (31.4 - 27.4) | 63.9% | Northwestern |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTSA at Tulsa | -3.0 | Tulsa by 1.1 (23.9 - 22.9) | 56.9% | UTSA | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | West Virginia at TCU | -14.0 | TCU by 11.5 (22.2 - 10.6) | 79.0% | West Virginia |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Florida at Georgia | -3.0 | Georgia by 6.1 (24.7 - 18.6) | 68.4% | Georgia |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | CBSSN | Hawaii at Utah State | -23.0 | Utah State by 17.2 (23.2 - 6.0) | 88.2% | Hawaii |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | San Jose State at UNLV | 4.0 | San Jose State by 6.0 (37.7 - 31.8) | 68.1% | San Jose State | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette | -32.0 | UL-Lafayette by 23.4 (39.6 - 16.2) | 96.1% | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Texas State at Idaho | 10.5 | Texas State by 7.9 (19.6 - 11.7) | 72.1% | Idaho | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Tulane at Florida Atlantic | -3.5 | Tulane by 1.3 (21.9 - 20.5) | 57.5% | Tulane | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | ESPN2 | Auburn at Arkansas | 7.5 | Auburn by 18.0 (33.4 - 15.4) | 89.4% | Auburn |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | East Carolina at Florida International | 24.0 | East Carolina by 33.7 (39.7 - 6.0) | 99.0% | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | -31.0 | Toledo by 29.0 (49.4 - 20.5) | 99.0% | Eastern Michigan |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Fox | Oklahoma State at Texas Tech | -3.0 | Oklahoma State by 2.8 (31.8 - 29.0) | 61.1% | Oklahoma State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | -10.0 | Georgia Tech by 14.0 (37.2 - 23.2) | 83.3% | Georgia Tech |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Tennessee at Missouri | -10.0 | Missouri by 22.4 (36.5 - 14.2) | 95.0% | Missouri |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | -3.5 | South Alabama by 17.2 (42.4 - 25.2) | 88.2% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | FS1 | Colorado at UCLA | -26.5 | UCLA by 28.8 (37.1 - 8.4) | 99.0% | UCLA |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | ESPN3 | Alabama State at Kentucky | -27.5 | Kentucky by 11.9 (39.0 - 27.1) | 79.6% | Alabama State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Boise State at Colorado State | 7.0 | Boise State by 3.8 (32.5 - 28.7) | 63.3% | Colorado State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Miami-FL at Florida State | -22.0 | Florida State by 15.4 (38.4 - 23.0) | 85.6% | Miami-FL |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | New Mexico at San Diego State | -15.0 | San Diego State by 7.3 (30.4 - 23.1) | 70.9% | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | UTEP at Texas A&M | -46.0 | Texas A&M by 39.6 (70.6 - 31.0) | 99.0% | UTEP |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPNU | Nevada at Fresno State | -20.5 | Fresno State by 21.4 (57.6 - 36.2) | 93.9% | Fresno State |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Wed | 8:00 PM | Cincinnati at Memphis | -3.0 | Memphis by 9.5 | Memphis | |
| Thu | 7:00 PM | South Florida at Houston | -19.0 | Houston by 24.4 | Houston | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Rice at North Texas | -4.0 | North Texas by 9.8 | North Texas | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | UL-Monroe at Troy | -3.0 | Troy by 3.0 | Troy | |
| Thu | 10:30 PM | Arizona State at Washington State | 12.0 | Arizona State by 23.3 | Arizona State | |
| Fri | 9:00 PM | USC at Oregon State | -3.5 | USC by 7.7 | USC | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Army at Air Force | 0.0 | Army by 5.2 | Army | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Illinois at Penn State | -10.0 | Penn State by 5.7 | Illinois | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Massachusetts | 23.0 | Northern Illinois by 21.4 | Massachusetts | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Ohio State at Purdue | 32.0 | Ohio State by 37.4 | Ohio State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Temple at Rutgers | -14.0 | Rutgers by 16.9 | Rutgers | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Virginia Tech at Boston College | 5.0 | Virginia Tech by 20.5 | Virginia Tech | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Wisconsin at Iowa | 10.0 | Wisconsin by 7.2 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Mississippi State at South Carolina | -12.0 | South Carolina by 19.2 | South Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | North Carolina at NC State | 4.0 | North Carolina by 11.3 | North Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Southern Miss at Marshall | -31.0 | Marshall by 28.4 | Southern Miss | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Wake Forest at Syracuse | -3.0 | Wake Forest by 0.9 | Wake Forest | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Middle Tennessee at UAB | 4.0 | Middle Tennessee by 14.2 | Middle Tennessee | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Western Kentucky at Georgia State | 20.0 | Western Kentucky by 18.9 | Georgia State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Arizona at California | 16.0 | Arizona by 25.6 | Arizona | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Clemson at Virginia | 17.0 | Clemson by 11.7 | Virginia | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Iowa State at Kansas State | -17.0 | Kansas State by 16.6 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Kansas at Texas | -28.0 | Texas by 24.6 | Kansas | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Kent State at Akron | -1.0 | Akron by 7.1 | Akron | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Michigan at Michigan State | -6.0 | Michigan State by 6.4 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Minnesota at Indiana | -10.0 | Indiana by 8.0 | Minnesota | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Navy at Notre Dame | -17.0 | Notre Dame by 23.5 | Notre Dame | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Northwestern at Nebraska | -7.0 | Nebraska by 3.8 | Northwestern | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UTSA at Tulsa | -3.0 | Tulsa by 0.9 | UTSA | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | West Virginia at TCU | -14.0 | TCU by 11.6 | West Virginia | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Florida at Georgia | -3.0 | Georgia by 10.5 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | Hawaii at Utah State | -23.0 | Utah State by 18.4 | Hawaii | |
| Sat | 4:00 PM | San Jose State at UNLV | 4.0 | San Jose State by 6.6 | San Jose State | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette | -32.0 | UL-Lafayette by 26.2 | New Mexico State | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Texas State at Idaho | 10.5 | Texas State by 9.3 | Idaho | |
| Sat | 5:00 PM | Tulane at Florida Atlantic | -3.5 | Tulane by 1.7 | Tulane | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Auburn at Arkansas | 7.5 | Auburn by 21.4 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | East Carolina at Florida International | 24.0 | East Carolina by 35.2 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Eastern Michigan at Toledo | -31.0 | Toledo by 31.2 | Toledo | XXX |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Oklahoma State at Texas Tech | -3.0 | Oklahoma State by 2.9 | Oklahoma State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech | -10.0 | Georgia Tech by 14.4 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Tennessee at Missouri | -10.0 | Missouri by 22.8 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Arkansas State at South Alabama | -3.5 | South Alabama by 17.5 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | Colorado at UCLA | -26.5 | UCLA by 29.2 | UCLA | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Boise State at Colorado State | 7.0 | Boise State by 4.5 | Colorado State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Miami-FL at Florida State | -22.0 | Florida State by 17.0 | Miami-FL | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | New Mexico at San Diego State | -15.0 | San Diego State by 7.7 | New Mexico | |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | UTEP at Texas A&M | -46.0 | Texas A&M by 41.2 | UTEP | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Nevada at Fresno State | -20.5 | Fresno State by 19.7 | Nevada | XXX |
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