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Last week the model correctly predicted 72.3% of the games. For the season, the model has correctly predicted the winner of 75.2% of games.
Updated Season Expected Wins
Team | Conference | Week 1 Total Pred | Week 2 Total Pred | Week 3 Total Pred | Week 4 Total Pred | Week 5 Total Pred | Week 6 Total Pred |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville | AAC | 7.41 | 8.16 | 7.60 | 7.71 | 8.31 | 8.57 |
Rutgers | AAC | 7.65 | 7.84 | 7.56 | 7.73 | 8.07 | 8.05 |
UCF | AAC | 7.59 | 7.82 | 8.05 | 8.41 | 8.59 | 7.89 |
Cincinnati | AAC | 8.29 | 8.40 | 7.66 | 6.80 | 8.12 | 7.85 |
Houston | AAC | 5.21 | 6.86 | 5.83 | 6.10 | 6.28 | 6.74 |
Memphis | AAC | 5.55 | 5.18 | 5.27 | 5.41 | 5.31 | 5.22 |
SMU | AAC | 6.54 | 5.05 | 5.87 | 6.19 | 5.53 | 5.13 |
Connecticut | AAC | 6.61 | 3.14 | 5.67 | 4.57 | 4.41 | 3.99 |
South Florida | AAC | 5.62 | 5.62 | 4.62 | 3.93 | 3.82 | 3.48 |
Temple | AAC | 5.48 | 4.94 | 4.43 | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.00 |
Florida State | ACC | 9.62 | 9.28 | 9.70 | 9.88 | 9.78 | 10.03 |
Clemson | ACC | 8.00 | 7.23 | 8.58 | 8.41 | 9.02 | 9.17 |
Virginia Tech | ACC | 6.91 | 5.37 | 7.03 | 7.85 | 7.49 | 8.41 |
North Carolina State | ACC | 7.39 | 7.63 | 7.82 | 7.85 | 7.13 | 7.75 |
Miami (Florida) | ACC | 6.04 | 6.95 | 6.95 | 6.90 | 7.11 | 7.61 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 6.83 | 5.08 | 6.56 | 6.72 | 7.18 | 7.47 |
Maryland | ACC | 5.53 | 7.34 | 6.27 | 7.15 | 7.59 | 7.30 |
Georgia Tech | ACC | 6.69 | 8.64 | 6.48 | 7.00 | 7.34 | 6.75 |
North Carolina | ACC | 7.74 | 6.38 | 7.70 | 7.88 | 7.30 | 6.42 |
Syracuse | ACC | 6.83 | 5.71 | 6.09 | 6.05 | 6.25 | 6.28 |
Virginia | ACC | 5.66 | 6.48 | 5.96 | 5.94 | 6.20 | 5.83 |
Duke | ACC | 5.52 | 7.38 | 6.21 | 5.40 | 5.25 | 5.47 |
Boston College | ACC | 5.21 | 5.85 | 5.60 | 4.98 | 5.04 | 5.16 |
Wake Forest | ACC | 4.30 | 5.79 | 4.37 | 3.90 | 4.59 | 4.29 |
Oklahoma | Big 12 | 7.27 | 7.95 | 7.66 | 6.77 | 7.72 | 8.45 |
Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 7.46 | 8.34 | 8.46 | 8.70 | 8.71 | 8.07 |
Texas Tech | Big 12 | 6.35 | 7.05 | 7.11 | 7.71 | 7.62 | 7.73 |
Kansas State | Big 12 | 8.49 | 6.47 | 7.48 | 7.63 | 7.22 | 7.33 |
Baylor | Big 12 | 6.68 | 8.16 | 6.65 | 7.55 | 7.09 | 7.19 |
Texas | Big 12 | 6.60 | 7.57 | 6.38 | 5.76 | 6.20 | 6.23 |
West Virginia | Big 12 | 6.31 | 6.01 | 5.52 | 5.63 | 5.27 | 6.10 |
TCU | Big 12 | 6.92 | 5.61 | 6.67 | 5.99 | 5.98 | 5.98 |
Iowa State | Big 12 | 6.25 | 4.98 | 5.32 | 4.89 | 5.00 | 5.30 |
Kansas | Big 12 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 4.64 | 4.51 | 4.54 | 4.62 |
Ohio State | Big Ten | 7.90 | 8.05 | 8.32 | 9.33 | 8.73 | 9.63 |
Michigan | Big Ten | 7.20 | 7.09 | 8.13 | 7.77 | 8.77 | 8.55 |
Northwestern | Big Ten | 7.80 | 7.55 | 8.30 | 8.41 | 8.41 | 7.99 |
Penn State | Big Ten | 7.79 | 6.99 | 8.01 | 7.38 | 7.73 | 7.82 |
Michigan State | Big Ten | 7.41 | 8.47 | 8.08 | 8.05 | 7.76 | 7.78 |
Wisconsin | Big Ten | 8.03 | 8.36 | 7.80 | 7.42 | 7.75 | 7.40 |
Iowa | Big Ten | 5.88 | 5.33 | 5.47 | 6.16 | 6.53 | 7.06 |
Nebraska | Big Ten | 7.62 | 7.44 | 7.38 | 6.95 | 6.88 | 7.04 |
Minnesota | Big Ten | 5.53 | 6.50 | 6.70 | 6.70 | 7.26 | 6.70 |
Illinois | Big Ten | 4.41 | 5.19 | 5.35 | 5.07 | 5.16 | 5.29 |
Indiana | Big Ten | 5.81 | 6.74 | 4.89 | 5.84 | 4.86 | 4.94 |
Purdue | Big Ten | 5.17 | 4.75 | 5.36 | 5.03 | 4.74 | 4.29 |
Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 6.48 | 7.11 | 6.35 | 6.81 | 7.40 | 7.32 |
East Carolina | CUSA | 6.43 | 6.76 | 6.60 | 6.18 | 6.07 | 6.74 |
Tulsa | CUSA | 7.66 | 5.48 | 7.61 | 6.83 | 7.07 | 6.64 |
North Texas | CUSA | 6.37 | 7.34 | 6.08 | 6.19 | 6.22 | 6.23 |
Rice | CUSA | 5.90 | 6.86 | 6.17 | 7.04 | 6.14 | 6.09 |
UTSA | CUSA | 5.77 | 6.36 | 6.45 | 6.41 | 6.63 | 5.79 |
Marshall | CUSA | 5.62 | 7.15 | 5.14 | 5.16 | 5.08 | 5.45 |
Tulane | CUSA | 3.72 | 5.88 | 3.39 | 4.61 | 4.33 | 5.09 |
Florida Atlantic | CUSA | 5.79 | 4.35 | 5.48 | 6.09 | 4.96 | 4.84 |
UAB | CUSA | 4.84 | 4.88 | 4.44 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 4.63 |
UTEP | CUSA | 4.85 | 4.22 | 4.61 | 5.13 | 4.56 | 4.62 |
Florida International | CUSA | 5.81 | 4.62 | 5.64 | 4.15 | 4.54 | 4.54 |
Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 7.29 | 5.52 | 5.78 | 5.31 | 4.85 | 4.47 |
Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 3.80 | 4.24 | 3.26 | 3.47 | 3.56 | 2.78 |
Notre Dame | Independent | 7.89 | 7.68 | 7.45 | 8.01 | 8.53 | 7.87 |
BYU | Independent | 7.58 | 6.17 | 7.74 | 7.80 | 6.74 | 7.15 |
Navy | Independent | 6.22 | 5.61 | 6.73 | 7.05 | 6.95 | 6.78 |
Army | Independent | 5.31 | 6.63 | 5.49 | 4.27 | 3.75 | 4.61 |
Idaho | Independent | 2.69 | 3.43 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.49 | 3.10 |
New Mexico State | Independent | 3.88 | 5.28 | 3.59 | 3.05 | 3.03 | 2.67 |
Old Dominion | Independent | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
Northern Illinois | MAC | 8.81 | 8.01 | 9.13 | 9.31 | 9.27 | 9.66 |
Bowling Green | MAC | 7.71 | 8.27 | 8.83 | 8.36 | 8.37 | 8.58 |
Ohio | MAC | 8.00 | 5.66 | 7.86 | 7.88 | 7.92 | 7.98 |
Ball State | MAC | 6.61 | 6.55 | 6.45 | 5.61 | 6.59 | 7.25 |
Kent State | MAC | 6.76 | 7.52 | 6.47 | 6.20 | 5.84 | 6.42 |
Toledo | MAC | 6.48 | 5.66 | 6.07 | 6.09 | 6.64 | 6.27 |
Buffalo | MAC | 5.32 | 5.51 | 5.18 | 4.85 | 5.27 | 5.88 |
Akron | MAC | 4.85 | 4.83 | 4.87 | 4.71 | 4.26 | 4.01 |
Central Michigan | MAC | 5.66 | 6.49 | 5.36 | 4.95 | 4.36 | 3.93 |
Western Michigan | MAC | 6.58 | 5.80 | 5.14 | 4.77 | 4.53 | 3.91 |
Eastern Michigan | MAC | 3.70 | 5.37 | 4.01 | 4.36 | 3.37 | 3.41 |
Miami (Ohio) | MAC | 4.57 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 4.43 | 3.64 | 3.27 |
Massachusetts | MAC | 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.13 | 2.02 | 1.82 | 1.78 |
Fresno State | MWC | 8.44 | 7.45 | 8.53 | 7.37 | 8.79 | 9.25 |
Utah State | MWC | 8.79 | 7.08 | 8.12 | 8.46 | 7.79 | 8.21 |
Boise State | MWC | 8.22 | 5.77 | 7.62 | 6.50 | 7.17 | 7.43 |
San Jose State | MWC | 8.26 | 7.99 | 7.54 | 7.99 | 7.20 | 6.63 |
Wyoming | MWC | 5.37 | 5.41 | 5.08 | 5.20 | 5.96 | 5.98 |
San Diego State | MWC | 7.29 | 5.17 | 5.72 | 5.95 | 5.26 | 5.69 |
Nevada | MWC | 6.02 | 6.48 | 5.27 | 5.11 | 5.28 | 5.68 |
UNLV | MWC | 4.72 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.58 | 4.77 | 5.25 |
Colorado State | MWC | 5.58 | 5.23 | 4.94 | 5.54 | 4.39 | 4.97 |
New Mexico | MWC | 5.26 | 5.27 | 5.28 | 5.07 | 5.06 | 4.74 |
Air Force | MWC | 6.03 | 7.23 | 5.63 | 5.49 | 4.83 | 4.55 |
Hawaii | MWC | 3.45 | 4.03 | 3.43 | 3.45 | 3.78 | 2.48 |
Oregon | Pac 12 | 9.31 | 9.37 | 9.52 | 9.66 | 9.62 | 9.65 |
Stanford | Pac 12 | 7.29 | 7.03 | 7.67 | 8.08 | 8.54 | 8.50 |
Arizona State | Pac 12 | 8.23 | 7.54 | 7.80 | 7.61 | 7.88 | 8.01 |
Oregon State | Pac 12 | 7.36 | 5.52 | 6.60 | 7.31 | 7.81 | 7.97 |
Washington | Pac 12 | 6.70 | 7.43 | 7.30 | 7.36 | 7.49 | 7.89 |
USC | Pac 12 | 7.85 | 8.13 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 8.12 | 7.64 |
UCLA | Pac 12 | 6.76 | 7.26 | 6.87 | 7.93 | 7.43 | 7.53 |
Utah | Pac 12 | 5.92 | 6.55 | 6.91 | 6.53 | 7.02 | 7.19 |
Arizona | Pac 12 | 6.25 | 7.04 | 6.51 | 6.87 | 6.84 | 6.55 |
Washington State | Pac 12 | 4.53 | 4.45 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 5.45 | 5.26 |
California | Pac 12 | 4.94 | 4.29 | 5.07 | 4.61 | 4.61 | 4.18 |
Colorado | Pac 12 | 2.49 | 4.81 | 3.58 | 3.37 | 3.39 | 3.37 |
Alabama | SEC | 9.97 | 9.27 | 9.95 | 10.61 | 10.59 | 10.75 |
Texas A&M | SEC | 8.74 | 8.49 | 8.92 | 8.38 | 8.41 | 8.62 |
South Carolina | SEC | 8.30 | 7.81 | 7.63 | 8.05 | 8.13 | 8.51 |
LSU | SEC | 7.75 | 7.57 | 8.33 | 8.55 | 8.62 | 8.24 |
Georgia | SEC | 8.14 | 6.09 | 8.10 | 8.30 | 7.68 | 8.24 |
Florida | SEC | 7.96 | 7.97 | 7.78 | 7.75 | 7.94 | 8.15 |
Mississippi | SEC | 6.53 | 6.99 | 7.08 | 7.70 | 7.78 | 7.19 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 8.16 | 6.19 | 7.36 | 7.01 | 7.00 | 7.13 |
Missouri | SEC | 5.64 | 6.95 | 6.15 | 5.39 | 6.73 | 7.08 |
Tennessee | SEC | 5.45 | 6.93 | 5.61 | 5.44 | 5.87 | 6.32 |
Mississippi State | SEC | 7.48 | 6.10 | 6.84 | 5.67 | 6.21 | 6.28 |
Auburn | SEC | 4.95 | 6.33 | 5.94 | 6.53 | 6.57 | 5.88 |
Arkansas | SEC | 5.01 | 6.47 | 5.58 | 6.32 | 5.66 | 5.67 |
Kentucky | SEC | 4.39 | 4.38 | 4.21 | 4.19 | 3.88 | 3.83 |
Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | 7.13 | 7.06 | 7.56 | 7.00 | 6.86 | 7.08 |
Louisiana-Lafayette | Sun Belt | 7.15 | 5.53 | 6.29 | 6.25 | 7.07 | 6.80 |
Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 8.26 | 8.52 | 7.32 | 7.64 | 7.16 | 6.79 |
Texas State | Sun Belt | 6.00 | 6.98 | 6.50 | 6.46 | 6.35 | 6.72 |
Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | 7.19 | 5.39 | 6.55 | 6.71 | 6.76 | 5.87 |
Troy | Sun Belt | 6.03 | 6.13 | 6.36 | 6.17 | 5.78 | 5.58 |
South Alabama | Sun Belt | 5.05 | 4.96 | 5.19 | 5.82 | 5.54 | 5.29 |
Georgia State | Sun Belt | 3.75 | 4.27 | 2.46 | 2.32 | 1.66 | 1.60 |
Week 6 Picks
Visitor | Home | Vis P(win) | Home P(win) |
---|---|---|---|
UCLA | Utah | 0.42 | 0.58 |
North Carolina | Virginia Tech | 0.47 | 0.53 |
Ball State | Virginia | 0.27 | 0.73 |
Missouri | Vanderbilt | 0.32 | 0.69 |
Louisiana Tech | UTEP | 0.28 | 0.72 |
BYU | Utah State | 0.37 | 0.63 |
Arizona | USC | 0.25 | 0.75 |
UCF | Memphis | 0.61 | 0.40 |
Florida Atlantic | UAB | 0.01 | 0.99 |
Rice | Tulsa | 0.22 | 0.78 |
South Alabama | Troy | 0.25 | 0.75 |
Western Michigan | Toledo | 0.35 | 0.65 |
Texas Tech | Kansas | 0.64 | 0.36 |
Georgia | Tennessee | 0.86 | 0.14 |
Clemson | Syracuse | 0.77 | 0.23 |
Washington | Stanford | 0.34 | 0.66 |
Kentucky | South Carolina | 0.25 | 0.76 |
San Jose State | Hawai'i | 0.67 | 0.33 |
Nevada | San Diego State | 0.28 | 0.72 |
Rutgers | SMU | 0.54 | 0.47 |
Penn State | Indiana | 0.63 | 0.37 |
Oregon | Colorado | 0.92 | 0.08 |
Kansas State | Oklahoma State | 0.37 | 0.63 |
TCU | Oklahoma | 0.43 | 0.58 |
Ohio State | Northwestern | 0.91 | 0.09 |
Ohio | Akron | 0.53 | 0.47 |
Arizona State | Notre Dame | 0.55 | 0.45 |
North Texas | Tulane | 0.56 | 0.44 |
North Carolina State | Wake Forest | 0.65 | 0.35 |
New Mexico State | New Mexico | 0.18 | 0.82 |
Illinois | Nebraska | 0.23 | 0.77 |
Air Force | Navy | 0.33 | 0.67 |
Mississippi | Auburn | 0.52 | 0.48 |
East Carolina | Middle Tennessee | 0.34 | 0.66 |
Michigan State | Iowa | 0.57 | 0.44 |
Minnesota | Michigan | 0.26 | 0.74 |
Central Michigan | Miami (Ohio) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
Georgia Tech | Miami (Florida) | 0.38 | 0.62 |
UTSA | Marshall | 0.41 | 0.60 |
LSU | Mississippi State | 0.52 | 0.48 |
Louisville | Temple | 0.55 | 0.45 |
Western Kentucky | Louisiana-Monroe | 0.29 | 0.71 |
Texas State | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0.17 | 0.83 |
Northern Illinois | Kent State | 0.64 | 0.36 |
Fresno State | Idaho | 0.71 | 0.29 |
Maryland | Florida State | 0.12 | 0.88 |
Florida International | Southern Mississippi | 0.57 | 0.43 |
Arkansas | Florida | 0.28 | 0.72 |
Cincinnati | South Florida | 0.54 | 0.46 |
Washington State | California | 0.49 | 0.52 |
Eastern Michigan | Buffalo | 0.28 | 0.72 |
Massachusetts | Bowling Green | 0.05 | 0.95 |
Army | Boston College | 0.30 | 0.70 |
West Virginia | Baylor | 0.29 | 0.71 |
Georgia State | Alabama | 0.00 | 1.00 |
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