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It's often difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff in college football. Many times, teams that look really good in October are forgotten about by mid-November (see West Virginia, 2012). In most cases, the frauds fool everyone by playing a weak schedule in the first several weeks of the season.
In this piece, we'll look at teams that have skated by so far by playing soft schedules. With the help of Brian Fremeau's FEI index, we can quickly determine which schools have a minefield ahead.
Fremeau publishes the strength of schedule for each team's previous schedule and future schedule. I simply took the rankings for both sets of data and subtracted one from the other to find the largest difference between the two.
The full data set is below, but let's look at the outliers first:
THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET REAL
Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
Oklahoma State | 118 | 22 | -96 |
Miami | 98 | 5 | -93 |
Oregon | 86 | 3 | -83 |
Baylor | 110 | 29 | -81 |
Michigan | 112 | 33 | -79 |
Texas Tech | 99 | 20 | -79 |
Cincinnati | 125 | 47 | -78 |
UTEP | 119 | 42 | -77 |
Houston | 91 | 32 | -59 |
Oklahoma | 75 | 16 | -59 |
Nebraska | 113 | 56 | -57 |
Syracuse | 89 | 35 | -54 |
Florida State | 103 | 51 | -52 |
Wyoming | 120 | 69 | -51 |
Minnesota | 95 | 49 | -46 |
Mississippi State | 44 | 1 | -43 |
Idaho | 78 | 38 | -40 |
Kansas | 71 | 34 | -37 |
Oregon State | 39 | 2 | -37 |
Troy | 93 | 57 | -36 |
Oklahoma State has the largest difference, but every Big 12 contender aside from Texas is on this list. Check out the big games that still remain in the Big 12:
Nov 2: Okla State @ Texas Tech
Nov 7: Oklahoma @ Baylor
Nov 16: Okla State @ Texas; Texas Tech @ Baylor
Nov 23: Baylor @ Okla State
Nov 28: Texas Tech @ Texas
Dec 7: Oklahoma @ Okla State; Texas @ Baylor
So among the five Big 12 teams with 1 conference loss or less, only OU vs. Texas and Texas Tech vs. OU have played each other at this point.
Miami has Florida State and Virginia Tech over the next two weeks.
Oregon's next game is at Stanford; then they close out with Utah - @ Arizona - Oregon State.
Michigan has the Big Ten's version of murderers row: @ MSU, Nebraska, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, OSU
EASY STREET
Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
Colorado State | 33 | 77 | 44 |
Georgia Tech | 10 | 60 | 50 |
Mississippi | 2 | 52 | 50 |
Louisiana Monroe | 52 | 103 | 51 |
West Virginia | 25 | 79 | 54 |
Army | 62 | 117 | 55 |
Buffalo | 40 | 98 | 58 |
North Carolina | 13 | 75 | 62 |
San Jose State | 45 | 109 | 64 |
Kent State | 59 | 125 | 66 |
Vanderbilt | 9 | 76 | 67 |
Middle Tennessee | 50 | 120 | 70 |
Akron | 53 | 124 | 71 |
Arkansas State | 30 | 104 | 74 |
Toledo | 38 | 113 | 75 |
South Carolina | 14 | 89 | 75 |
Boise State | 29 | 106 | 77 |
Georgia State | 35 | 116 | 81 |
Utah State | 26 | 118 | 92 |
Florida Atlantic | 21 | 115 | 94 |
By contrast, these teams are on easy street the rest of the way out.
South Carolina finishes with MSU, Florida, Coastal Carolina, and Clemson (all at home).
Georgia Tech wraps up with Pitt, @ Clemson, Alabama A&M, Georgia
Wondering where your team stands? Here's the full set of data:
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
1 | Oklahoma State | 118 | 22 | -96 |
2 | Miami | 98 | 5 | -93 |
3 | Oregon | 86 | 3 | -83 |
4 | Baylor | 110 | 29 | -81 |
5 | Michigan | 112 | 33 | -79 |
5 | Texas Tech | 99 | 20 | -79 |
7 | Cincinnati | 125 | 47 | -78 |
8 | UTEP | 119 | 42 | -77 |
9 | Houston | 91 | 32 | -59 |
9 | Oklahoma | 75 | 16 | -59 |
11 | Nebraska | 113 | 56 | -57 |
12 | Syracuse | 89 | 35 | -54 |
13 | Florida State | 103 | 51 | -52 |
14 | Wyoming | 120 | 69 | -51 |
15 | Minnesota | 95 | 49 | -46 |
16 | Mississippi State | 44 | 1 | -43 |
17 | Idaho | 78 | 38 | -40 |
18 | Kansas | 71 | 34 | -37 |
18 | Oregon State | 39 | 2 | -37 |
20 | Troy | 93 | 57 | -36 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
21 | Ohio State | 105 | 70 | -35 |
21 | Arizona | 48 | 13 | -35 |
21 | Notre Dame | 41 | 6 | -35 |
24 | New Mexico | 115 | 81 | -34 |
25 | Miami (OH) | 117 | 84 | -33 |
26 | Clemson | 69 | 37 | -32 |
27 | Illinois | 92 | 63 | -29 |
28 | Tulsa | 96 | 68 | -28 |
29 | South Florida | 63 | 36 | -27 |
30 | Wake Forest | 65 | 41 | -24 |
31 | Rutgers | 81 | 58 | -23 |
32 | Louisiana Tech | 122 | 100 | -22 |
32 | SMU | 70 | 48 | -22 |
34 | Navy | 87 | 67 | -20 |
34 | Indiana | 51 | 31 | -20 |
36 | Louisville | 106 | 87 | -19 |
36 | LSU | 23 | 4 | -19 |
38 | Tulane | 116 | 99 | -17 |
38 | Eastern Michigan | 114 | 97 | -17 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
40 | Central Michigan | 101 | 85 | -16 |
40 | UAB | 77 | 61 | -16 |
42 | Alabama | 43 | 28 | -15 |
43 | Northern Illinois | 108 | 94 | -14 |
44 | South Alabama | 124 | 111 | -13 |
45 | Ball State | 107 | 95 | -12 |
46 | Missouri | 49 | 39 | -10 |
46 | Colorado | 17 | 7 | -10 |
48 | Texas A&M | 19 | 10 | -9 |
49 | Michigan State | 85 | 78 | -7 |
49 | Georgia | 28 | 21 | -7 |
51 | Louisiana Lafayette | 111 | 105 | -6 |
51 | East Carolina | 97 | 91 | -6 |
53 | Memphis | 67 | 62 | -5 |
53 | USC | 24 | 19 | -5 |
55 | Texas | 31 | 27 | -4 |
55 | Auburn | 27 | 23 | -4 |
55 | Florida | 12 | 8 | -4 |
58 | North Carolina State | 57 | 54 | -3 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
58 | Wisconsin | 47 | 44 | -3 |
60 | Connecticut | 84 | 82 | -2 |
60 | Pittsburgh | 32 | 30 | -2 |
60 | Arizona State | 16 | 14 | -2 |
63 | Fresno State | 123 | 122 | -1 |
63 | Temple | 74 | 73 | -1 |
63 | Purdue | 60 | 59 | -1 |
66 | Western Kentucky | 121 | 121 | 0 |
66 | UNLV | 102 | 102 | 0 |
66 | Southern Mississippi | 90 | 90 | 0 |
66 | Marshall | 88 | 88 | 0 |
66 | Maryland | 55 | 55 | 0 |
66 | Stanford | 18 | 18 | 0 |
72 | Hawaii | 79 | 80 | 1 |
73 | California | 7 | 9 | 2 |
74 | Florida International | 80 | 83 | 3 |
74 | Arkansas | 8 | 11 | 3 |
76 | Virginia | 22 | 26 | 4 |
77 | Duke | 58 | 64 | 6 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
78 | Air Force | 100 | 107 | 7 |
78 | Ohio | 94 | 101 | 7 |
78 | Iowa | 64 | 71 | 7 |
78 | BYU | 36 | 43 | 7 |
82 | Washington State | 3 | 12 | 9 |
83 | Bowling Green | 109 | 119 | 10 |
83 | Kentucky | 15 | 25 | 10 |
83 | Utah | 5 | 15 | 10 |
86 | Northwestern | 61 | 72 | 11 |
87 | Penn State | 54 | 66 | 12 |
88 | UCLA | 4 | 17 | 13 |
89 | Nevada | 37 | 53 | 16 |
89 | Iowa State | 34 | 50 | 16 |
91 | Texas State | 104 | 123 | 19 |
91 | Rice | 73 | 92 | 19 |
91 | Kansas State | 46 | 65 | 19 |
94 | Central Florida | 66 | 86 | 20 |
95 | Tennessee | 1 | 24 | 23 |
96 | Western Michigan | 72 | 96 | 24 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
97 | TCU | 20 | 46 | 26 |
98 | Massachusetts | 82 | 112 | 30 |
99 | North Texas | 83 | 114 | 31 |
100 | Boston College | 42 | 74 | 32 |
101 | New Mexico State | 76 | 110 | 34 |
101 | Virginia Tech | 11 | 45 | 34 |
101 | Washington | 6 | 40 | 34 |
104 | UTSA | 56 | 93 | 37 |
105 | San Diego State | 68 | 108 | 40 |
106 | Colorado State | 33 | 77 | 44 |
107 | Georgia Tech | 10 | 60 | 50 |
107 | Mississippi | 2 | 52 | 50 |
109 | Louisiana Monroe | 52 | 103 | 51 |
110 | West Virginia | 25 | 79 | 54 |
111 | Army | 62 | 117 | 55 |
112 | Buffalo | 40 | 98 | 58 |
113 | North Carolina | 13 | 75 | 62 |
114 | San Jose State | 45 | 109 | 64 |
115 | Kent State | 59 | 125 | 66 |
Rk | Team | SOS Previous | SOS Future | Difference |
116 | Vanderbilt | 9 | 76 | 67 |
117 | Middle Tennessee | 50 | 120 | 70 |
118 | Akron | 53 | 124 | 71 |
119 | Arkansas State | 30 | 104 | 74 |
120 | Toledo | 38 | 113 | 75 |
120 | South Carolina | 14 | 89 | 75 |
122 | Boise State | 29 | 106 | 77 |
123 | Georgia State | 35 | 116 | 81 |
124 | Utah State | 26 | 118 | 92 |
125 | Florida Atlantic | 21 | 115 | 94 |
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