/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/21797131/20131019_kkt_bc2_220.0.jpg)
A discussion on this thread this week got me thinking about whether there might be a better way to rank teams when we talk about offense and defense. Here's the posts that did it.
So, a hat tip to SJD183 for inspiring this post.
Here's the problem. Just as the posters pointed out above, Michigan State's #1 total defense ranking hasn't exactly come against Baylor. And Baylor's #1 total offense ranking wasn't achieved by playing Michigan State. It's reasonable to think that Michigan State's and Baylor's #1 rankings are just as much a result of the caliber of offense and defenses they've faced as the actual caliber of their teams.
If only there were a way to go beyond just an yards per game average in a way that might account for the quality of offense or defense a team faced.
Advanced Stats to the Rescue
Dividing a team's total yards of offense and defense by the opponent's season average yards of defense or offense gives a percentage that shows how many more or fewer yards a team was able to generate (or keep and opponent from generating) in a way that indexes for an opponent's offense or defense quality.
For instance, if Team A generates 500 yards of offense vs Team B, and Team B's season average defense is 300 yards per game, 500/300 = 1.67. In this case, Team A generated 167% of the expected offense. If Team C generates 400 yards of offense vs Team D, and Team's D's season average defense is 200 yards per game, Team C generated 200% of the expected offense.
Team A's YPG is 500 and Team C's is 400. Is Team A's offense better?
Team C generated 200% of expected offense. Team A generated 167% of expected offense. Is Team A still better?
By averaging out these percentages for a team's offense and defense, we get a clearer picture of which team's are making the most of the opportunities presented to them regardless of quality of opponent. Generating the same amount of offense vs a good defensive team will result in a higher percentage than vs a bad defensive team.
The next table ranks the offenses and defenses, thru Week 8, in this way. Obviously, a higher number is better on offense, and a lower number is better on defense.
Team | Offense | Team | Defense | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor | 168% | Michigan State | 60% | |
Texas A&M | 152% | Louisville | 66% | |
Oregon | 148% | Alabama | 66% | |
Indiana | 146% | Florida | 71% | |
Arizona State | 142% | Oklahoma | 72% | |
Florida State | 141% | Cincinnati | 72% | |
Miami (Florida) | 132% | Florida State | 74% | |
Fresno State | 131% | Virginia Tech | 77% | |
Clemson | 130% | UCLA | 80% | |
BYU | 126% | Memphis | 80% | |
Georgia | 126% | Oregon State | 80% | |
Missouri | 125% | Baylor | 81% | |
Illinois | 125% | Wisconsin | 81% | |
Wisconsin | 124% | Penn State | 81% | |
Texas Tech | 124% | Bowling Green | 84% | |
Ohio State | 123% | East Carolina | 86% | |
UCF | 123% | South Carolina | 86% | |
North Carolina | 121% | Western Kentucky | 87% | |
Louisville | 121% | Texas Tech | 87% | |
Boise State | 119% | Oregon | 88% | |
Northern Illinois | 119% | USC | 88% | |
South Carolina | 119% | Michigan | 89% | |
SMU | 118% | San Diego State | 91% | |
Marshall | 118% | North Carolina State | 92% | |
LSU | 118% | Utah State | 93% | |
Duke | 118% | Rice | 93% | |
Oklahoma State | 116% | Stanford | 93% | |
Washington | 116% | Marshall | 93% | |
Utah | 115% | BYU | 93% | |
South Alabama | 114% | Florida Atlantic | 94% | |
San Jose State | 114% | North Texas | 95% | |
California | 114% | TCU | 95% | |
Oregon State | 114% | Georgia Tech | 96% | |
Ball State | 114% | LSU | 96% | |
Wyoming | 113% | Boise State | 97% | |
Houston | 113% | Nebraska | 97% | |
Arizona | 112% | Iowa | 97% | |
East Carolina | 112% | Fresno State | 97% | |
Texas | 112% | Missouri | 98% | |
Troy | 112% | Oklahoma State | 98% | |
Georgia Tech | 112% | Minnesota | 98% | |
Nebraska | 111% | Ohio State | 98% | |
Western Kentucky | 111% | Army | 98% | |
Mississippi State | 111% | Navy | 99% | |
West Virginia | 111% | Tulane | 100% | |
Kansas State | 110% | UTSA | 101% | |
Alabama | 110% | Northern Illinois | 101% | |
Auburn | 110% | Kansas State | 102% | |
Michigan | 110% | Arizona | 102% | |
Mississippi | 109% | Maryland | 102% | |
Maryland | 109% | Wyoming | 102% | |
Northwestern | 108% | Buffalo | 102% | |
UCLA | 107% | Ball State | 102% | |
Notre Dame | 107% | Texas State | 102% | |
Utah State | 106% | UTEP | 103% | |
North Carolina State | 106% | Southern Mississippi | 103% | |
Iowa | 105% | Vanderbilt | 103% | |
Louisiana-Lafayette | 105% | Georgia | 104% | |
Oklahoma | 105% | South Alabama | 104% | |
Penn State | 104% | Akron | 105% | |
Kentucky | 104% | Wake Forest | 105% | |
Cincinnati | 103% | Mississippi State | 106% | |
Stanford | 103% | Miami (Florida) | 107% | |
Ohio | 103% | Tulsa | 107% | |
USC | 103% | Texas | 108% | |
Arkansas State | 102% | Louisiana Tech | 108% | |
Washington State | 102% | Notre Dame | 109% | |
Bowling Green | 101% | Central Michigan | 109% | |
Pittsburgh | 101% | Arizona State | 109% | |
UTSA | 101% | Louisiana-Lafayette | 110% | |
Vanderbilt | 100% | Mississippi | 110% | |
Nevada | 100% | Toledo | 110% | |
Toledo | 99% | Duke | 110% | |
Rutgers | 99% | Washington | 110% | |
UNLV | 99% | Pittsburgh | 111% | |
Tennessee | 99% | Connecticut | 111% | |
Colorado State | 98% | South Florida | 111% | |
Army | 98% | UNLV | 112% | |
Boston College | 97% | UCF | 112% | |
Syracuse | 96% | Clemson | 112% | |
Florida Atlantic | 96% | SMU | 113% | |
Louisiana Tech | 95% | Auburn | 113% | |
New Mexico | 95% | Virginia | 113% | |
Arkansas | 94% | New Mexico | 114% | |
Temple | 94% | Hawai'i | 114% | |
Eastern Michigan | 93% | San Jose State | 115% | |
Buffalo | 93% | Colorado State | 115% | |
Tulsa | 92% | Northwestern | 115% | |
North Texas | 92% | Ohio | 115% | |
UAB | 92% | Washington State | 115% | |
Colorado | 92% | Rutgers | 118% | |
Rice | 91% | Arkansas | 118% | |
Iowa State | 91% | Western Michigan | 119% | |
UTEP | 91% | Arkansas State | 119% | |
Connecticut | 90% | Miami (Ohio) | 119% | |
Virginia | 90% | Houston | 119% | |
San Diego State | 89% | Kansas | 119% | |
Virginia Tech | 87% | Massachusetts | 121% | |
Hawai'i | 86% | Utah | 122% | |
TCU | 86% | Florida International | 123% | |
Florida | 86% | Syracuse | 123% | |
Navy | 86% | Middle Tennessee | 124% | |
Memphis | 86% | Idaho | 125% | |
Kent State | 86% | Troy | 125% | |
Akron | 85% | Air Force | 126% | |
New Mexico State | 85% | Tennessee | 126% | |
Michigan State | 85% | UAB | 126% | |
Middle Tennessee | 84% | Boston College | 127% | |
Air Force | 84% | Eastern Michigan | 128% | |
Louisiana-Monroe | 84% | Kent State | 128% | |
Idaho | 82% | Purdue | 129% | |
Purdue | 82% | Georgia State | 133% | |
Tulane | 80% | Illinois | 134% | |
Wake Forest | 80% | Temple | 134% | |
Central Michigan | 79% | Louisiana-Monroe | 135% | |
Western Michigan | 76% | North Carolina | 135% | |
South Florida | 76% | California | 136% | |
Minnesota | 76% | Texas A&M | 137% | |
Southern Mississippi | 75% | New Mexico State | 138% | |
Georgia State | 75% | Colorado | 139% | |
Massachusetts | 74% | Nevada | 140% | |
Kansas | 73% | West Virginia | 140% | |
Texas State | 72% | Iowa State | 141% | |
Miami (Ohio) | 56% | Kentucky | 146% | |
Florida International | 55% | Indiana | 158% |
I think we can effectively dismiss the criticism that Michigan's State defense doesn't deserve its ranking because it hasn't played anyone. The teams that it has played it has held to an average of 60% of their average season yardage. Likewise, Baylor has made the most of the opportunities presented to it, averaging 168% of it's opponents' defensive yards per game.
Loading comments...