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College football F/+ picks: Week 9

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Picks and projections for Week 9 of the 2013 college football season.

Andy Lyons

UPDATED to fix an error in last week's OLD METHOD results.

Last week started out really, really weird and ended relatively well. The picks began 0-10 (!!), then rallied. OLD trumped NEW by a hair, but neither had a particularly strong week.

Once the full, real F/+ rankings were in place after Week 7, with a broader range between good and bad, I kind of expected NEW to do better. Last week was one week, and an upset-laden one at that, but so far the OLD guard remains the leader.

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 230-231-9 (50%)
    Old: 192-176-7 (52%)

And the HYBRID results are still clocking in pretty well despite the mediocre week.

  • Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
    Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
    Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
    Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
    Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
    Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
    Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
    Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
    Week 8: 21-22-1 (49%)
    TOTAL: 139-114-4 (55%)

Missouri by about seven and a half, by the way? SOLD. I'll take it, no questions asked.

NEW METHOD

Day Time (ET) TV Game Spread Prediction Favorite's
chance of
winning
Pick
Tue 8:00 PM ESPN2 UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State 2.5 UL-Lafayette by 6.9 (40.5 - 33.5) 70.1% UL-Lafayette
Thu 7:30 PM ESPN Kentucky at Mississippi State -11 Mississippi State by 13.0 (41.9 - 28.9) 81.5% Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM FS1 Marshall at Middle Tennessee 8 Marshall by 11.7 (40.0 - 28.3) 79.3% Marshall
Fri 8:00 PM ESPN Boise State at BYU -7 BYU by 15.5 (35.3 - 19.7) 85.7% BYU
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Ball State at Akron 10.5 Ball State by 15.6 (37.3 - 21.8) 85.8% Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN3 Connecticut at Central Florida -23 Central Florida by 30.1 (40.5 - 10.4) 99.0% Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN News Houston at Rutgers -7 Rutgers by 1.2 (26.9 - 25.8) 57.1% Houston
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN2 Louisville at South Florida 21 Louisville by 26.2 (33.6 - 7.4) 98.9% Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM ESPN Nebraska at Minnesota 10 Nebraska by 8.1 (31.3 - 23.2) 72.4% Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM BTN Northwestern at Iowa -4 Iowa by 5.2 (30.1 - 24.9) 66.4% Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM FSN affiliates Oklahoma State at Iowa State 13 Oklahoma State by 17.0 (31.0 - 13.9) 88.0% Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM ESPNU Wake Forest at Miami-FL -23.5 Miami-FL by 28.9 (38.6 - 9.7) 99.0% Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM SEC Network Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -17 Texas A&M by 13.0 (55.4 - 42.4) 81.5% Vanderbilt
Sat 12:30 PM ESPN3 Georgia Tech at Virginia 10 Georgia Tech by 9.6 (28.9 - 19.3) 75.5% Virginia
Sat 1:00 PM CBSSN Pittsburgh at Navy 6.5 Pittsburgh by 6.8 (29.8 - 23.0) 69.8% Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM ESPN3 Miami-OH at Ohio -25 Ohio by 22.8 (36.1 - 13.3) 95.5% Miami-OH
Sat 2:30 PM ESPN3 Toledo at Bowling Green -3.5 Bowling Green by 4.4 (34.3 - 29.9) 64.6% Bowling Green
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Temple at SMU -13 SMU by 14.5 (36.8 - 22.4) 84.1% SMU
Sat 3:00 PM ESPN3 Western Michigan at Massachusetts -3 Western Michigan by 1.8 (22.1 - 20.4) 58.7% Western Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Boston College at North Carolina -7 North Carolina by 6.9 (39.2 - 32.3) 70.0% Boston College
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Buffalo at Kent State 1.5 Buffalo by 8.9 (37.1 - 28.2) 74.1% Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN Clemson at Maryland 14.5 Clemson by 12.0 (35.4 - 23.4) 79.9% Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM ESPNU Duke at Virginia Tech -14 Virginia Tech by 21.9 (34.1 - 12.2) 94.4% Virginia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM ESPN3 Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois -31 Northern Illinois by 24.8 (45.3 - 20.5) 97.6% Eastern Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 Michigan State at Illinois 10 Michigan State by 7.2 (27.8 - 20.6) 70.7% Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 NC State at Florida State -32 Florida State by 45.4 (50.7 - 5.3) 99.0% Florida State
Sat 3:30 PM CBS Tennessee at Alabama -28 Alabama by 32.5 (37.7 - 5.2) 99.0% Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM Fox Texas Tech at Oklahoma -7 Oklahoma by 3.2 (33.4 - 30.2) 62.0% Texas Tech
Sat 3:30 PM CST Tulsa at Tulane 3 Tulane by 9.2 (26.8 - 17.6) 74.6% Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM CSS UTEP at Rice -17.5 Rice by 19.9 (51.0 - 31.1) 91.9% Rice
Sat 3:45 PM FS1 West Virginia at Kansas State -10 Kansas State by 15.7 (34.2 - 18.6) 85.9% Kansas State
Sat 4:00 PM ESPN3 Troy at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky by 17.2 (39.7 - 22.5) 88.2% Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM Pac-12 Utah at USC -6.5 USC by 1.1 (26.4 - 25.3) 57.1% Utah
Sat 5:00 PM CBSSN Notre Dame at Air Force 20 Notre Dame by 29.7 (56.9 - 27.3) 99.0% Notre Dame
Sat 5:00 PM local UAB at UTSA -7 UTSA by 15.1 (40.7 - 25.6) 85.0% UTSA
Sat 6:00 PM $Ulive Louisiana Tech at Florida International 5 Louisiana Tech by 7.1 (30.2 - 23.1) 70.3% Louisiana Tech
Sat 6:05 PM ESPN3 UNLV at Nevada -6 Nevada by 3.1 (47.9 - 44.8) 61.8% UNLV
Sat 7:00 PM ESPNU Baylor at Kansas 35 Baylor by 34.5 (46.3 - 11.8) 99.0% Kansas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Furman at LSU -46.5 LSU by 33.7 (51.9 - 18.1) 99.0% Furman
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 Georgia State at UL-Monroe -12 UL-Monroe by 7.1 (30.5 - 23.3) 70.5% Georgia State
Sat 7:00 PM FCSC North Texas at Southern Miss 11.5 North Texas by 18.6 (27.8 - 9.1) 90.3% North Texas
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama at Texas State 2 South Alabama by 8.9 (25.6 - 16.7) 74.1% South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN2 South Carolina at Missouri -3 Missouri by 7.2 (30.2 - 23.0) 70.6% Missouri
Sat 7:00 PM ESPN UCLA at Oregon -24 Oregon by 16.3 (38.3 - 22.0) 86.9% UCLA
Sat 7:00 PM MWC Video Wyoming at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 4.2 (42.0 - 37.7) 64.2% Wyoming
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Florida Atlantic at Auburn -24 Auburn by 19.4 (26.5 - 7.1) 91.3% Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:30 PM ESPN3 Idaho at Ole Miss -41 Ole Miss by 41.1 (41.1 - 0.0) 99.0% Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM FS1 Texas at TCU -2 TCU by 4.5 (25.2 - 20.7) 64.9% TCU
Sat 8:00 PM Pac-12 Arizona at Colorado 14.5 Arizona by 27.1 (37.0 - 9.9) 99.0% Arizona
Sat 8:00 PM ABC Penn State at Ohio State -15 Ohio State by 17.9 (37.5 - 19.6) 89.2% Ohio State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN2 Fresno State at San Diego State 9 Fresno State by 20.5 (37.3 - 16.8) 92.7% Fresno State
Sat 10:30 PM ESPN Stanford at Oregon State 4 Stanford by 15.9 (34.5 - 18.6) 86.3% Stanford
Sat 11:00 PM FS1 California at Washington -25 Washington by 32.6 (44.7 - 12.1) 99.0% Washington
Sat 11:59 PM MWC Video Colorado State at Hawaii 4 Colorado State by 0.9 (17.9 - 17.0) 56.5% Hawaii

OLD METHOD

Day Time (ET) Game Spread OLD Prediction OLD Pick Different?
Tue 8:00 PM UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State 2.5 UL-Lafayette by 7.7 UL-Lafayette
Thu 7:30 PM Kentucky at Mississippi State -11 Mississippi State by 14.9 Mississippi State
Thu 7:30 PM Marshall at Middle Tennessee 8 Marshall by 11.5 Marshall
Fri 8:00 PM Boise State at BYU -7 BYU by 16.1 BYU
Sat 12:00 PM Ball State at Akron 10.5 Ball State by 15.4 Ball State
Sat 12:00 PM Connecticut at Central Florida -23 Central Florida by 33.8 Central Florida
Sat 12:00 PM Houston at Rutgers -7 Rutgers by 1.0 Houston
Sat 12:00 PM Louisville at South Florida 21 Louisville by 28.8 Louisville
Sat 12:00 PM Nebraska at Minnesota 10 Nebraska by 8.9 Minnesota
Sat 12:00 PM Northwestern at Iowa -4 Iowa by 5.4 Iowa
Sat 12:00 PM Oklahoma State at Iowa State 13 Oklahoma State by 17.7 Oklahoma State
Sat 12:00 PM Wake Forest at Miami-FL -23.5 Miami-FL by 32.2 Miami-FL
Sat 12:21 PM Vanderbilt at Texas A&M -17 Texas A&M by 13.7 Vanderbilt
Sat 12:30 PM Georgia Tech at Virginia 10 Georgia Tech by 10.0 Georgia Tech XXX
Sat 1:00 PM Pittsburgh at Navy 6.5 Pittsburgh by 7.9 Pittsburgh
Sat 2:00 PM Miami-OH at Ohio -25 Ohio by 23.7 Miami-OH
Sat 2:30 PM Toledo at Bowling Green -3.5 Bowling Green by 4.4 Bowling Green
Sat 3:00 PM Temple at SMU -13 SMU by 16.2 SMU
Sat 3:00 PM Western Michigan at Massachusetts -3 Western Michigan by 2.1 Western Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Boston College at North Carolina -7 North Carolina by 7.2 North Carolina XXX
Sat 3:30 PM Buffalo at Kent State 1.5 Buffalo by 9.9 Buffalo
Sat 3:30 PM Clemson at Maryland 14.5 Clemson by 12.6 Maryland
Sat 3:30 PM Duke at Virginia Tech -14 Virginia Tech by 22.3 Virginia Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois -31 Northern Illinois by 27.1 Eastern Michigan
Sat 3:30 PM Michigan State at Illinois 10 Michigan State by 8.1 Illinois
Sat 3:30 PM NC State at Florida State -32 Florida State by 47.1 Florida State
Sat 3:30 PM Tennessee at Alabama -28 Alabama by 35.3 Alabama
Sat 3:30 PM Texas Tech at Oklahoma -7 Oklahoma by 3.2 Texas Tech
Sat 3:30 PM Tulsa at Tulane 3 Tulane by 9.1 Tulane
Sat 3:30 PM UTEP at Rice -17.5 Rice by 20.0 Rice
Sat 3:45 PM West Virginia at Kansas State -10 Kansas State by 16.5 Kansas State
Sat 4:00 PM Troy at Western Kentucky -10.5 Western Kentucky by 17.8 Western Kentucky
Sat 4:00 PM Utah at USC -6.5 USC by 1.1 Utah
Sat 5:00 PM Notre Dame at Air Force 20 Notre Dame by 30.8 Notre Dame
Sat 5:00 PM UAB at UTSA -7 UTSA by 16.0 UTSA
Sat 6:00 PM Louisiana Tech at Florida International 5 Louisiana Tech by 7.0 Louisiana Tech
Sat 6:05 PM UNLV at Nevada -6 Nevada by 2.8 UNLV
Sat 7:00 PM Baylor at Kansas 35 Baylor by 33.6 Kansas
Sat 7:00 PM Furman at LSU -46.5
Sat 7:00 PM Georgia State at UL-Monroe -12 UL-Monroe by 7.2 Georgia State
Sat 7:00 PM North Texas at Southern Miss 11.5 North Texas by 20.7 North Texas
Sat 7:00 PM South Alabama at Texas State 2 South Alabama by 10.2 South Alabama
Sat 7:00 PM South Carolina at Missouri -3 Missouri by 7.6 Missouri
Sat 7:00 PM UCLA at Oregon -24 Oregon by 15.1 UCLA
Sat 7:00 PM Wyoming at San Jose State -7 San Jose State by 4.3 Wyoming
Sat 7:30 PM Florida Atlantic at Auburn -24 Auburn by 23.0 Florida Atlantic
Sat 7:30 PM Idaho at Ole Miss -41 Ole Miss by 44.5 Ole Miss
Sat 7:30 PM Texas at TCU -2 TCU by 4.7 TCU
Sat 8:00 PM Arizona at Colorado 14.5 Arizona by 27.4 Arizona
Sat 8:00 PM Penn State at Ohio State -15 Ohio State by 18.0 Ohio State
Sat 10:30 PM Fresno State at San Diego State 9 Fresno State by 21.5 Fresno State
Sat 10:30 PM Stanford at Oregon State 4 Stanford by 17.5 Stanford
Sat 11:00 PM California at Washington -25 Washington by 35.9 Washington
Sat 11:59 PM Colorado State at Hawaii 4 Colorado State by 1.3 Hawaii