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The initial BCS rankings for 2013 were released Sunday, which means of course that it's national "WTF good is a computer anyway" Week. Not to outdone, and hoping to get in on some of the money, I present MY initial 2013 FBS Power Rankings.
What if every team could play every other team? It would certainly make the tournament selections next year easier for starters. It would also provide a neat way to rank the teams.
Using a round-robin format in which every team plays a simulated game against every other team, we can rank teams based on the total number of wins. The best team should have the most wins, right?
I ran the model 100 times (I used 1000 for my weekly picks, but this was simulating more than 8000 games, rather than 800) and here's the 1-126 ranking.
Rank | Team | Ave # of wins | Rank | Team | Ave # of wins | Rank | Team | Ave # of wins | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Baylor | 108.07 | 43 | Bowling Green | 71.34 | 86 | New Mexico | 54.95 | ||
2 | Florida State | 106.01 | 44 | Ball State | 71.26 | 87 | Akron | 53.8 | ||
3 | Oregon | 105.55 | 45 | East Carolina | 70.79 | 88 | Rice | 53.69 | ||
4 | Alabama | 97.61 | 46 | Utah State | 69.89 | 89 | Colorado | 53.48 | ||
5 | Arizona State | 95.14 | 47 | Penn State | 69.55 | 90 | South Alabama | 52.66 | ||
6 | Miami (Florida) | 93.02 | 48 | Minnesota | 69.08 | 91 | North Carolina | 52.21 | ||
7 | Clemson | 92.41 | 49 | Utah | 68.54 | 92 | Texas State | 51.34 | ||
8 | Arizona | 92.08 | 50 | Fresno State | 68.06 | 93 | Troy | 51.23 | ||
9 | Louisville | 91.72 | 51 | Mississippi | 67.48 | 94 | San Jose State | 50.62 | ||
10 | Auburn | 91.12 | 52 | Kansas State | 67.22 | 95 | Kent State | 50.47 | ||
11 | Ohio State | 89.43 | 53 | Boston College | 66.93 | 96 | Wake Forest | 49.95 | ||
12 | Missouri | 88.53 | 54 | Navy | 66.88 | 97 | Hawaii | 49.16 | ||
13 | UCLA | 88.18 | 55 | Iowa State | 66.71 | 98 | Air Force | 47.92 | ||
14 | LSU | 86.87 | 56 | Virginia Tech | 66.06 | 99 | Louisiana Tech | 47.7 | ||
15 | Florida | 86.63 | 57 | Northern Illinois | 65.52 | 100 | Nevada | 47.59 | ||
16 | BYU | 86.23 | 58 | TCU | 65.27 | 101 | UNLV | 47.09 | ||
17 | Houston | 86.03 | 59 | Wyoming | 65.12 | 102 | Virginia | 46.94 | ||
18 | Texas Tech | 84.46 | 60 | Syracuse | 65.11 | 103 | Middle Tennessee | 45.91 | ||
19 | Nebraska | 83.57 | 61 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 64.39 | 104 | San Diego State | 45.58 | ||
20 | Wisconsin | 82.37 | 62 | North Carolina State | 63.93 | 105 | Central Michigan | 45.37 | ||
21 | Michigan | 82.17 | 63 | Arkansas State | 63.86 | 106 | West Virginia | 44.32 | ||
22 | Georgia Tech | 81.42 | 64 | Rutgers | 63.82 | 107 | Eastern Michigan | 43.13 | ||
23 | Oklahoma State | 80.29 | 65 | Northwestern | 63.63 | 108 | Louisiana-Monroe | 40.38 | ||
24 | Boise State | 79.81 | 66 | North Texas | 63.49 | 109 | Tulsa | 40.38 | ||
25 | Iowa | 79.4 | 67 | Notre Dame | 63.01 | 110 | Connecticut | 39.95 | ||
26 | Michigan State | 79.38 | 68 | Texas | 62.69 | 111 | UTEP | 39.71 | ||
27 | Duke | 77.82 | 69 | Ohio | 62.45 | 112 | UAB | 39.22 | ||
28 | Oklahoma | 77.5 | 70 | Tennessee | 61.55 | 113 | UTSA | 36.59 | ||
29 | Stanford | 76.65 | 71 | Florida Atlantic | 61.45 | 114 | SMU | 35.67 | ||
30 | Indiana | 76.47 | 72 | Vanderbilt | 61.03 | 115 | Massachusetts | 34.86 | ||
31 | Georgia | 75.68 | 73 | USC | 60.86 | 116 | Miami (Ohio) | 28.98 | ||
32 | Marshall | 75.09 | 74 | Kansas | 60.41 | 117 | Georgia State | 27.92 | ||
33 | Mississippi State | 75 | 75 | Kentucky | 60.37 | 118 | Temple | 25.65 | ||
34 | Arkansas | 74.9 | 76 | Western Kentucky | 60.05 | 119 | South Florida | 24.23 | ||
35 | Cincinnati | 74.03 | 77 | Buffalo | 59.6 | 120 | Purdue | 24.11 | ||
36 | Illinois | 73.55 | 78 | Army | 59.04 | 121 | Florida International | 22.37 | ||
37 | UCF | 73.52 | 79 | Pittsburgh | 58.61 | 122 | Idaho | 21.3 | ||
38 | Maryland | 72.63 | 80 | Washington State | 58.16 | 123 | Old Dominion | 19.35 | ||
39 | South Carolina | 72.28 | 81 | Toledo | 58.11 | 124 | Southern Mississippi | 18.53 | ||
40 | Texas A&M | 72.03 | 82 | Colorado State | 57.59 | 125 | Western Michigan | 13.07 | ||
41 | Washington | 72.01 | 83 | Memphis | 57.5 | 126 | New Mexico State | 10.66 | ||
42 | Oregon State | 71.5 | 84 | Tulane | 57.29 | |||||
43 | Bowling Green | 71.34 | 85 | California | 55.1 |
"Are you nuts, Paul?" I hear you asking.
No, at least insofar as my model coding goes. The inputs I use for my model are season scoring offense and season scoring defense, with the prob. of win for each game adjusted for each team's strength of schedule. That explains why Baylor, FSU, and Oregon are far in front of everyone else. In my weekly model I use a home-field advantage adjustment as well. This ranking assumes a neutral field.
Wanna know how each team matched up? Head over to HuskerMath.com for the full matrix of every team-versus pair in the FBS.
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