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Expected Wins after Week 8 and Week 9 Picks

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The model nailed two big upsets last week ... but missed the rest.

By Paul Dalen
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Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

It seems like there is one Saturday every year in which upsets are the norm. Last Saturday was one of those weeks. It was the worst week of the season pick-wise, with the model correctly predicting only 62.5% of games. For the season the model has predicted 73.9% of games correctly.

The model made three big upset picks last week. The model called Auburn over Texas A&M, Minnesota over Northwestern, and Indiana over Michigan. The Auburn and Minnesota picks came through and Indiana and Michigan was a pick-em until late in the game when Michigan pulled away to win in the first basketball game of the year 63-47.

Week 9 Picks

There are a lot of games that are really too close to call this week. I'm not confident that the season accuracy will make a big jump.

Away Home Away % Home %
Louisiana-Lafayette Arkansas State 0.57 0.43
Kentucky Mississippi State 0.48 0.52
Marshall Middle Tennessee 0.72 0.28
Boise State BYU 0.55 0.45
Abilene Christian New Mexico State 0.71 0.29
UAB UTSA 0.61 0.40
Arizona Colorado 0.94 0.06
Ball State Akron 0.74 0.26
Baylor Kansas 0.95 0.05
Boston College North Carolina 0.67 0.33
Buffalo Kent State 0.62 0.38
California Washington 0.35 0.65
Clemson Maryland 0.68 0.32
Colorado State Hawai'i 0.67 0.33
Connecticut UCF 0.20 0.80
Duke Virginia Tech 0.60 0.41
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.30 0.70
Florida Atlantic Auburn 0.32 0.68
Fresno State San Diego State 0.66 0.34
Furman LSU 0.00 1.00
Georgia State Louisiana-Monroe 0.46 0.54
Georgia Tech Virginia 0.77 0.23
Houston Rutgers 0.69 0.31
Idaho Mississippi 0.23 0.77
Louisiana Tech Florida International 0.80 0.20
Louisville South Florida 0.89 0.11
Miami (Ohio) Ohio 0.26 0.74
Michigan State Illinois 0.63 0.37
Nebraska Minnesota 0.68 0.32
UNLV Nevada 0.61 0.39
North Carolina State Florida State 0.21 0.79
North Texas Southern Mississippi 0.89 0.11
Northwestern Iowa 0.47 0.53
Notre Dame Air Force 0.80 0.20
Oklahoma State Iowa State 0.77 0.24
Penn State Ohio State 0.30 0.70
Pittsburgh Navy 0.57 0.43
South Alabama Texas State 0.49 0.52
South Carolina Missouri 0.53 0.47
Stanford Oregon State 0.70 0.30
Temple SMU 0.57 0.43
Tennessee Alabama 0.45 0.55
Texas TCU 0.63 0.37
Texas Tech Oklahoma 0.67 0.33
UTEP Rice 0.50 0.50
Toledo Bowling Green 0.47 0.53
Troy Western Kentucky 0.43 0.57
Tulsa Tulane 0.43 0.57
UCLA Oregon 0.39 0.61
Utah USC 0.72 0.28
Vanderbilt Texas A&M 0.50 0.51
Wake Forest Miami (Florida) 0.38 0.62
West Virginia Kansas State 0.49 0.51
Western Michigan Massachusetts 0.57 0.43
Wyoming San Jose State 0.70 0.30

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