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And now everything changes. After seven weeks, we completely change up how the F/+ rankings come about. Gone are the preseason projections from both S&P+ (my measure) and FEI (Brian Fremeau's). And in come drive data (in S&P+) and breakouts for offense, defense and special teams (in FEI).
This change has resulted in some odd shifts in the rankings, which may have had nothing to do with last week's performances. But now we have the full measure, the good measure. We'll see what it does for the picks themselves.
One thing it has done: It's spread out the F/+ ratings. Last week, most top-10 teams were in the +20-30% range; now the top nine are all at +30.6% or higher. The bottom has followed suit, with seven teams now grading out at -30% or lower. This bigger range will have a serious impact on the NEW METHOD picks below. We'll see if it's a good impact or a bad impact. NEW METHOD picks were doing reasonably well these past two weeks, so a change might not be a good thing. (The OLD METHOD picks below have a set point range for top and bottom teams, so they shouldn't be impacted much. That said, they'll still be impacted by the simple fact that this is a different measure after seven weeks than it is before.)
- Week 1
New: 37-38 (49%)
Old: 30-15 (67%) - Week 2
New: 41-32-2 (56%)
Old: 16-25 (39%) - Week 3
New: 28-30-2 (48%)
Old: 20-23-2 (47%) - Week 4
New: 25-33-1 (43%)
Old: 23-20-1 (53%) - Week 5
New: 22-24-2 (48%)
Old: 27-19-2 (58%) - Week 6
New: 29-26 (53%)
Old: 27-28 (49%) - Week 7
New: 27-23-1 (54%)
Old: 25-24-1 (51%) - TOTAL
New: 209-206-8 (50%)
Old: 168-154-6 (52%)
And the HYBRID results...
- Picks In Which The Two Methods Agree
Week 1: 14-8 (64%)
Week 2: 14-11 (56%)
Week 3: 16-8 (67%)
Week 4: 17-15-1 (53%)
Week 5: 18-15-1 (54%)
Week 6: 20-19 (51%)
Week 7: 19-16-1 (54%)
TOTAL: 118-92-3 (56%)
One thing you'll notice below: With the broader range of F/+ ratings, NEW and OLD METHOD picks now agree significantly. They disagree on only two games. I have no idea if that's a good or bad thing.
NEW METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | TV | Game | Spread | Prediction | Favorite's chance of winning | Pick |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | UL-Lafayette at Western Kentucky | -3 | Western Kentucky by 3.7 (31.4 - 27.7) | 63.0% | Western Kentucky |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | ESPN | Miami-FL at North Carolina | 9 | Miami-FL by 19.6 (50.7 - 31.1) | 91.5% | Miami-FL |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | ESPN | Central Florida at Louisville | -12.5 | Louisville by 15.4 (34.5 - 19.1) | 85.5% | Louisville |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPNU | Connecticut at Cincinnati | -14 | Cincinnati by 0.9 (15.2 - 14.4) | 56.4% | Connecticut |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | CBS | Georgia at Vanderbilt | 7 | Georgia by 18.3 (50.2 - 31.9) | 89.8% | Georgia |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN2 | Minnesota at Northwestern | -12.5 | Northwestern by 13.0 (36.3 - 23.2) | 81.6% | Northwestern |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN News | Navy at Toledo | -8 | Toledo by 13.2 (34.9 - 21.7) | 81.9% | Toledo |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | BTN | Purdue at Michigan State | -27 | Michigan State by 37.8 (36.0 - (-1.9)) | 100.0% | Michigan State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN3 | SMU at Memphis | -3.5 | Memphis by 10.2 (20.6 - 10.5) | 76.5% | Memphis |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | ESPN | South Carolina at Tennessee | 7.5 | South Carolina by 13.6 (35.2 - 21.5) | 82.7% | South Carolina |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Southern Miss at East Carolina | -23 | East Carolina by 29.1 (36.0 - 7.0) | 100.0% | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Fox | TCU at Oklahoma State | -7.5 | Oklahoma State by 11.3 (24.5 - 13.2) | 78.6% | Oklahoma State |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | FS1 | Texas Tech at West Virginia | 6 | Texas Tech by 15.2 (32.3 - 17.1) | 85.2% | Texas Tech |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | SEC Network | Florida at Missouri | 3 | Missouri by 5.1 (13.9 - 8.8) | 66.2% | Missouri |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | ESPN3 | Syracuse at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 9.7 (34.8 - 25.1) | 75.6% | Georgia Tech |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Akron at Miami-OH | 7 | Akron by 10.0 (23.4 - 13.4) | 76.3% | Akron |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Army at Temple | -3 | Army by 10.2 (45.4 - 35.3) | 76.5% | Army |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ohio at Eastern Michigan | 17 | Ohio by 18.4 (46.8 - 28.4) | 89.9% | Ohio |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | ESPN3 | Ball State at Western Michigan | 18.5 | Ball State by 23.0 (35.7 - 12.7) | 95.6% | Ball State |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Colorado State at Wyoming | -7 | Wyoming by 8.8 (34.5 - 25.7) | 73.8% | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Kent State at South Alabama | -6.5 | South Alabama by 17.4 (44.6 - 27.1) | 88.6% | South Alabama |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | ESPN3 | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | 16 | Northern Illinois by 13.8 (37.1 - 23.3) | 82.9% | Central Michigan |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBS | Auburn at Texas A&M | -13 | Texas A&M by 6.5 (41.7 - 35.2) | 69.2% | Auburn |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN News | BYU at Houston | 10 | BYU by 15.2 (30.2 - 15.1) | 85.2% | BYU |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Duke at Virginia | -2 | Virginia by 0.6 (32.3 - 31.7) | 55.7% | Duke |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BTN | Indiana at Michigan | -7.5 | Michigan by 6.6 (46.3 - 39.7) | 69.4% | Indiana |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | Iowa at Ohio State | -17 | Ohio State by 12.5 (28.2 - 15.7) | 80.6% | Iowa |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPNU | Maryland at Wake Forest | 6 | Maryland by 7.3 (28.5 - 21.2) | 70.9% | Maryland |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN3 | Massachusetts at Buffalo | -21 | Buffalo by 30.0 (45.5 - 15.6) | 100.0% | Buffalo |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | CBSSN | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | 7 | North Texas by 19.1 (34.5 - 15.3) | 90.9% | North Texas |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ESPN | Oklahoma at Kansas | 23 | Oklahoma by 18.0 (27.9 - 9.8) | 89.4% | Kansas |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | ABC/ESPN2 | UCLA at Stanford | -6 | Stanford by 7.3 (20.9 - 13.7) | 70.8% | Stanford |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Pac-12 | Washington at Arizona State | -3 | Arizona State by 1.3 (36.1 - 34.8) | 57.4% | Washington |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN | Arkansas at Alabama | -28 | Alabama by 31.5 (38.5 - 7.1) | 100.0% | Alabama |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Georgia State at Texas State | -17 | Texas State by 17.1 (25.8 - 8.7) | 88.1% | Texas State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPNU | Iowa State at Baylor | -34 | Baylor by 27.5 (55.0 - 27.5) | 100.0% | Iowa State |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN2 | LSU at Ole Miss | 8.5 | LSU by 9.7 (37.3 - 27.5) | 75.7% | LSU |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | ESPN3 | Old Dominion at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 13.4 (30.7 - 17.2) | 82.3% | Pittsburgh | |
| Sat | 7:30 PM | NBC | USC at Notre Dame | -3 | USC by 5.2 (29.8 - 24.6) | 66.4% | USC |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ABC | Florida State at Clemson | 3 | Florida State by 3.8 (28.8 - 25.0) | 63.3% | Florida State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | CBSSN | Nevada at Boise State | -22 | Boise State by 26.7 (62.8 - 36.1) | 99.4% | Boise State |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | ESPN3 | Rice at New Mexico State | 18 | Rice by 19.2 (38.3 - 19.1) | 91.1% | Rice |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | BTN | Wisconsin at Illinois | 13 | Wisconsin by 12.6 (38.6 - 26.0) | 81.0% | Illinois |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | Utah State at New Mexico | Utah State by 12.5 (34.1 - 21.6) | 80.6% | Utah State | ||
| Sat | 10:00 PM | UNLV at Fresno State | -25 | Fresno State by 22.6 (48.3 - 25.7) | 95.2% | UNLV | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Pac-12 | Utah at Arizona | -4 | Utah by 3.8 (38.1 - 34.3) | 63.3% | Utah |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | FS1 | Washington State at Oregon | -39 | Oregon by 33.2 (45.6 - 12.4) | 100.0% | Washington State |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | ESPN2 | Oregon State at California | 11 | Oregon State by 16.7 (41.1 - 24.5) | 87.4% | Oregon State |
OLD METHOD
| Day | Time (ET) | Game | Spread | OLD Prediction | OLD Pick | Different? |
| Tue | 8:00 PM | UL-Lafayette at Western Kentucky | -3 | Western Kentucky by 4.0 | Western Kentucky | |
| Thu | 7:30 PM | Miami-FL at North Carolina | 9 | Miami-FL by 22.6 | Miami-FL | |
| Fri | 8:00 PM | Central Florida at Louisville | -12.5 | Louisville by 17.5 | Louisville | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Connecticut at Cincinnati | -14 | Cincinnati by 0.6 | Connecticut | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Georgia at Vanderbilt | 7 | Georgia by 22.3 | Georgia | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Minnesota at Northwestern | -12.5 | Northwestern by 14.3 | Northwestern | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Navy at Toledo | -8 | Toledo by 14.6 | Toledo | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Purdue at Michigan State | -27 | Michigan State by 41.0 | Michigan State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | SMU at Memphis | -3.5 | Memphis by 11.7 | Memphis | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | South Carolina at Tennessee | 7.5 | South Carolina by 16.1 | South Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Southern Miss at East Carolina | -23 | East Carolina by 33.1 | East Carolina | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | TCU at Oklahoma State | -7.5 | Oklahoma State by 11.8 | Oklahoma State | |
| Sat | 12:00 PM | Texas Tech at West Virginia | 6 | Texas Tech by 16.6 | Texas Tech | |
| Sat | 12:21 PM | Florida at Missouri | 3 | Missouri by 5.6 | Missouri | |
| Sat | 12:30 PM | Syracuse at Georgia Tech | -7 | Georgia Tech by 9.6 | Georgia Tech | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Akron at Miami-OH | 7 | Akron by 11.6 | Akron | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Army at Temple | -3 | Army by 12.1 | Army | |
| Sat | 1:00 PM | Ohio at Eastern Michigan | 17 | Ohio by 21.3 | Ohio | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Ball State at Western Michigan | 18.5 | Ball State by 24.2 | Ball State | |
| Sat | 2:00 PM | Colorado State at Wyoming | -7 | Wyoming by 10.1 | Wyoming | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Kent State at South Alabama | -6.5 | South Alabama by 19.5 | South Alabama | |
| Sat | 3:00 PM | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | 16 | Northern Illinois by 16.5 | Northern Illinois | XXX |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Auburn at Texas A&M | -13 | Texas A&M by 7.4 | Auburn | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | BYU at Houston | 10 | BYU by 16.0 | BYU | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Duke at Virginia | -2 | Virginia by 0.2 | Duke | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Indiana at Michigan | -7.5 | Michigan by 7.1 | Indiana | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Iowa at Ohio State | -17 | Ohio State by 14.1 | Iowa | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Maryland at Wake Forest | 6 | Maryland by 9.2 | Maryland | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Massachusetts at Buffalo | -21 | Buffalo by 33.3 | Buffalo | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | 7 | North Texas by 19.7 | North Texas | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | Oklahoma at Kansas | 23 | Oklahoma by 20.6 | Kansas | |
| Sat | 3:30 PM | UCLA at Stanford | -6 | Stanford by 7.6 | Stanford | |
| Sat | 6:00 PM | Washington at Arizona State | -3 | Arizona State by 0.9 | Washington | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Arkansas at Alabama | -28 | Alabama by 37.4 | Alabama | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Georgia State at Texas State | -17 | Texas State by 19.8 | Texas State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Iowa State at Baylor | -34 | Baylor by 28.3 | Iowa State | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | LSU at Ole Miss | 8.5 | LSU by 11.3 | LSU | |
| Sat | 7:00 PM | Old Dominion at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh by 15.0 | Pittsburgh | ||
| Sat | 7:30 PM | USC at Notre Dame | -3 | USC by 6.7 | USC | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Florida State at Clemson | 3 | Florida State by 4.5 | Florida State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Nevada at Boise State | -22 | Boise State by 27.7 | Boise State | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Rice at New Mexico State | 18 | Rice by 21.7 | Rice | |
| Sat | 8:00 PM | Wisconsin at Illinois | 13 | Wisconsin by 15.5 | Wisconsin | XXX |
| Sat | 9:00 PM | Utah State at New Mexico | Utah State by 15.0 | Utah State | ||
| Sat | 10:00 PM | UNLV at Fresno State | -25 | Fresno State by 24.3 | UNLV | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Utah at Arizona | -4 | Utah by 4.5 | Utah | |
| Sat | 10:00 PM | Washington State at Oregon | -39 | Oregon by 34.5 | Washington State | |
| Sat | 10:30 PM | Oregon State at California | 11 | Oregon State by 19.5 | Oregon State |
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