Week 8 Picks and Updated Expected Win Totals

Using the right season's play data made a big difference this week, as the model correctly predicted 74.1% of games correctly.  That was almost exactly the overall season accuracy of 74.0%.

There were a few big changes in expected win totals from before Week 7 to before Week 8.  In the Big 12 Texas, based on its convincing win over Oklahoma, jumped 13% from 5.91 to 6.68 wins.  In the Big Ten, Nebraska turned it's mangling of Purdue into an 8% jump from 7.97 to 8.63 wins.  Northwestern was the biggest percentage loser in the Big Ten, falling 10% from 7.13 to 6.44 wins.  In the Pac-12 USC's surprise victory over Arizona into a 22% gain in expected wins, jumping from 6.77 to 8.24 wins.  Arizona felt the sting of that upset, falling 10% from 7.70 to 6.92 expected wins.  In the SEC, Auburn used it's not-particularly-surprising-lopsided victory over Western Carolina to climb 24% from 6.99 to 8.67 wins.  Florida's 6-17 loss to LSU, combined with Missouri's strong performance led to a 12% drop from 8.10 to 7.16 expected wins.