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Using the right season's play data made a big difference this week, as the model correctly predicted 74.1% of games correctly. That was almost exactly the overall season accuracy of 74.0%.
There were a few big changes in expected win totals from before Week 7 to before Week 8. In the Big 12 Texas, based on its convincing win over Oklahoma, jumped 13% from 5.91 to 6.68 wins. In the Big Ten, Nebraska turned it's mangling of Purdue into an 8% jump from 7.97 to 8.63 wins. Northwestern was the biggest percentage loser in the Big Ten, falling 10% from 7.13 to 6.44 wins. In the Pac-12 USC's surprise victory over Arizona into a 22% gain in expected wins, jumping from 6.77 to 8.24 wins. Arizona felt the sting of that upset, falling 10% from 7.70 to 6.92 expected wins. In the SEC, Auburn used it's not-particularly-surprising-lopsided victory over Western Carolina to climb 24% from 6.99 to 8.67 wins. Florida's 6-17 loss to LSU, combined with Missouri's strong performance led to a 12% drop from 8.10 to 7.16 expected wins.
TeamA | TeamB | Team 1 % | Team 2 % |
---|---|---|---|
Louisiana-Lafayette | Western Kentucky | 0.456 | 0.544 |
Miami (Florida) | North Carolina | 0.899 | 0.101 |
UCF | Louisville | 0.29 | 0.71 |
Akron | Miami (Ohio) | 0.792 | 0.208 |
Arkansas | Alabama | 0.408 | 0.592 |
Army | Temple | 0.786 | 0.214 |
Auburn | Texas A&M | 0.629 | 0.371 |
Ball State | Western Michigan | 0.883 | 0.117 |
BYU | Houston | 0.585 | 0.415 |
Colorado State | Wyoming | 0.329 | 0.671 |
Connecticut | Cincinnati | 0.25 | 0.75 |
Duke | Virginia | 0.721 | 0.279 |
Florida | Missouri | 0.594 | 0.406 |
Florida State | Clemson | 0.682 | 0.318 |
Georgia | Vanderbilt | 0.617 | 0.383 |
Georgia State | Texas State | 0.258 | 0.742 |
Indiana | Michigan | 0.434 | 0.566 |
Iowa | Ohio State | 0.397 | 0.603 |
Iowa State | Baylor | 0.153 | 0.847 |
Kent State | South Alabama | 0.499 | 0.501 |
LSU | Mississippi | 0.801 | 0.199 |
Maryland | Wake Forest | 0.66 | 0.34 |
Massachusetts | Buffalo | 0.295 | 0.705 |
Minnesota | Northwestern | 0.598 | 0.402 |
Navy | Toledo | 0.53 | 0.47 |
Nevada | Boise State | 0.362 | 0.638 |
UNLV | Fresno State | 0.335 | 0.665 |
North Texas | Louisiana Tech | 0.626 | 0.374 |
Northern Illinois | Central Michigan | 0.733 | 0.267 |
Ohio | Eastern Michigan | 0.741 | 0.259 |
Oklahoma | Kansas | 0.798 | 0.202 |
Old Dominion | Pittsburgh | 0.239 | 0.761 |
Oregon State | California | 0.933 | 0.067 |
Purdue | Michigan State | 0.172 | 0.828 |
Rice | New Mexico State | 0.914 | 0.086 |
South Carolina | Tennessee | 0.726 | 0.274 |
USC | Notre Dame | 0.647 | 0.353 |
SMU | Memphis | 0.354 | 0.646 |
Southern Mississippi | East Carolina | 0.248 | 0.752 |
Syracuse | Georgia Tech | 0.566 | 0.434 |
TCU | Oklahoma State | 0.53 | 0.47 |
Texas Tech | West Virginia | 0.808 | 0.192 |
UCLA | Stanford | 0.728 | 0.272 |
Utah | Arizona | 0.552 | 0.448 |
Utah State | New Mexico | 0.709 | 0.291 |
Washington | Arizona State | 0.601 | 0.399 |
Washington State | Oregon | 0.318 | 0.682 |
Wisconsin | Illinois | 0.741 | 0.259 |
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