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South Carolina 28, Central Florida 25 |
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| UCF | SC | UCF | SC | |||
| Close % | 98.6% | STANDARD DOWNS | ||||
| Field Position % | 37.1% | 37.5% | Success Rate | 47.7% | 55.8% | |
| Leverage % | 73.3% | 65.0% | PPP | 0.44 | 0.57 | |
| S&P | 0.916 | 1.130 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||||
| EqPts | 37.7 | 44.6 | PASSING DOWNS | |||
| Close Success Rate | 50.0% | 47.5% | Success Rate | 56.3% | 32.1% | |
| Close PPP | 0.50 | 0.56 | PPP | 0.67 | 0.53 | |
| Close S&P | 0.999 | 1.033 | S&P | 1.228 | 0.853 | |
| RUSHING | TURNOVERS | |||||
| EqPts | 7.4 | 20.9 | Number | 4 | 4 | |
| Close Success Rate | 56.5% | 55.6% | Turnover Pts | 16.4 | 15.9 | |
| Close PPP | 0.32 | 0.46 | Turnover Pts Margin | -0.5 | +0.5 | |
| Close S&P | 0.887 | 1.020 | ||||
| Line Yards/carry | 3.06 | 2.42 | Q1 S&P | 1.150 | 0.946 | |
| Q2 S&P | 0.861 | 0.718 | ||||
| PASSING | Q3 S&P | 0.588 | 1.476 | |||
| EqPts | 30.3 | 23.7 | Q4 S&P | 1.872 | 0.910 | |
| Close Success Rate | 46.0% | 37.1% | ||||
| Close PPP | 0.61 | 0.68 | 1st Down S&P | 1.179 | 1.054 | |
| Close S&P | 1.069 | 1.049 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.546 | 1.362 | |
| SD/PD Sack Rate | 4.4% / 7.1% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 3rd Down S&P | 1.449 | 0.864 | |
| Projected Pt. Margin: South Carolina +7.4 | Actual Pt. Margin: South Carolina +3 | ||||||
SC got out of its own way just long enough. The Gamecocks were the inferior team in the first half, even removing turnovers from the equation, but they rallied for about the first 20 minutes of the second half, and that did the job.
Still ...
...a 73.3% leverage rate for UCF is too high.
...a 57% success rate for UCF on the ground is too high.
...a 37% success rate for SC through the air is too low.
...a 2.42 line yards per carry average for SC is too low.
...even with the backup quarterback, a 32% success rate on passing downs is too low.
I viewed South Carolina as a team that was a step behind Georgia and Florida in the preseason. It's not too late for a turnaround, obviously, but even though Mike Davis has been as good as advertised, I haven't seen any reason to change my mind yet.
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