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F/+ Picks: Week 3

Sept 8, 2012; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Jawan Jamison (23) runs with the ball during the second half at High Point Solutions Stadium.  Rutgers defeated Howard Bison 26-0.  Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-US PRESSWIRE
Sept 8, 2012; Piscataway, NJ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Jawan Jamison (23) runs with the ball during the second half at High Point Solutions Stadium. Rutgers defeated Howard Bison 26-0. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-US PRESSWIRE
  • Week 1: 22-19 (53.7%)
    Week 2: 22-23 (48.9%)
  • TOTAL: 44-42 (51.2%)

It says a lot about my expectations that I was thrilled with a 22-23 week last week. But if these picks are still at or around .500 at the end of September, good things should start to happen. As I say every time, when you phase out the projections, phase in opponent adjustments, and use a little bit of raw, early data, you're going to have some potentially iffy picks. Last week, the picks held steady. This week? We'll see. I actually like these picks quite a bit more than last week (though I think UNLV's sorry enough that Wazzu should cover), but ... that means next to nothing.

Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Thursday 7:30pm ESPN Rutgers South Florida USF by 8.8 -7.5 USF
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Friday 9:00pm ESPN Washington St. UNLV Wazzu by 4.9 8.5 UNLV
Day Time
(ET)
TV Away Home Winner Spread
(Home)
Pick
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN Wake Forest Florida St. FSU by 28.4 -28.0 FSU
Saturday 12:00pm BTN W. Michigan Minnesota Minnesota by 0.2 -2.5 WMU
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2 Arkansas St. Nebraska Nebraska by 26.1 -24.5 NU
Saturday 12:00pm ABC California Ohio St. Ohio State by 15.7 -16.5 California
Saturday 12:00pm Reg. FSN UL-Lafayette Okla. St. OSU by 30.8 -22.5 OSU
Saturday 12:00pm ESPNU Va. Tech Pittsburgh Va. Tech by 11.3 10.5 Va. Tech
Saturday 12:00pm CBS Sports N. Illinois Army NIU by 15 3.0 NIU
Saturday 12:00pm FX TCU Kansas TCU by 29.7 20.5 TCU
Saturday 12:00pm BTN E. Michigan Purdue Purdue by 19.7 -24.0 EMU
Saturday 12:21pm SEC UL-Monroe Auburn Auburn by 19.9 -16.5 Auburn
Saturday 12:30pm ESPN3 UConn Maryland Maryland by 1.5 3.0 Maryland
Saturday 3:30pm CBS Alabama Arkansas Alabama by 22.7 20.5 Alabama
Saturday 3:30pm ESPNU Virginia Ga. Tech Ga. Tech by 12.8 -10.5 Ga. Tech
Saturday 3:30pm BTN B.C. NW'ern B.C. by 2.7 -3.5 B.C.
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 N. Carolina Louisville Louisville by 1.9 -3.0 UNC
Saturday 3:30pm BTN UMass Michigan Michigan by 44.1 -45.5 UMass
Saturday 3:30pm ABC/ESPN2 Navy Penn St. Penn St. by 14.9 -6.0 Penn St.
Saturday 3:30pm Reg. FSN Texas A&M SMU A&M by 17.3 12.5 A&M
Saturday 3:30pm CBS Sports E. Carolina So. Miss USM by 11.4 -7.0 USM
Saturday 4:00pm NBC Sports Miami-OH Boise St. BSU by 22.1 -21.0 BSU
Saturday 4:00pm CSBA FIU UCF UCF by 19.1 -16.5 UCF
Saturday 6:00pm ESPN3 S. Alabama N.C. State N.C. St. by 32.5 -31.0 N.C. St.
Saturday 6:00pm ESPN Florida Tennessee Tennessee by 1.9 -3.0 Florida
Saturday 6:30pm Ohio Marshall Ohio by 5.9 6.5 Marshall
Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU W. Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky by 8.3 -7.0 Kentucky
Saturday 7:00pm Mid. Tenn. Memphis Memphis by 0.7 3.5 Memphis
Saturday 7:00pm Reg. FSN N. Texas Kansas St. KSU by 28.3 -28.0 KSU
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Rice La. Tech La. Tech by 19 -20.5 Rice
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 UAB S. Carolina S. Carolina by 34.9 -33.5 S. Carolina
Saturday 7:00pm FCSP New Mexico Texas Tech Texas Tech by 41.1 -32.0 Texas Tech
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Bowling Green Toledo Toledo by 5.9 -3.5 Toledo
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Miss. St. Troy MSU by 20.5 16.5 MSU
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN2 Arizona St. Missouri Missouri by 4.7 -6.0 Arizona St.
Saturday 7:30pm Fox USC Stanford Stanford by 2.7 9.5 Stanford
Saturday 7:30pm ESPN3 FAU Georgia Georgia by 48.1 -42.0 Georgia
Saturday 8:00pm ESPN3 Colorado St. San Jose St. SJSU by 4.1 -11.0 CSU
Saturday 8:00pm BTN Ball State Indiana Indiana by 7.9 -2.5 Indiana
Saturday 8:00pm ESPN3 Idaho LSU LSU by 54.1 -42.0 LSU
Saturday 8:00pm ABC Notre Dame Michigan St. State by 0.7 -6.0 Irish
Saturday 8:00pm BTN Utah State Wisconsin Wiscy by 20 -13.0 Wiscy
Saturday 8:00pm CBS Sports Colorado Fresno St. FSU by 12.2 -15.5 Colorado
Saturday 8:00pm ESPN3 NMSU UTEP UTEP by 16.3 -11.5 UTEP
Saturday 9:15pm ESPN Texas Ole Miss Texas by 14.9 9.5 Texas
Saturday 10:00pm ESPN2 BYU Utah Utah by 0.8 4.0 Utah
Saturday 10:30pm Pac-12 Houston UCLA UCLA by 9.6 -17.0 Houston