Back in early February, I unfurled a very rough set of F/+ projections for the 2012 season, based entirely on recent history, recruiting rankings and returning starter numbers. The starter numbers are still in flux, and we have yet to take draft points and other factors into account. But since Brian Fremeau and I have begun working on the official F/+ projections (the last version was just me tinkering), which actually include rough estimates for the four FBS newcomers, I thought I would share the rough draft from which we are currently working.
Below is a table showing you the up-to-date projections, along with their comparison to the rankings I came up with in February. The new rankings are good for Boise State and Wisconsin and bad for Rutgers and Ole Miss. And Tennessee, with eleventy billion returning starters, still clings to a Top 25 spot.
We still have no idea what to make of Oklahoma State, or, for that matter, Georgia, now that half their defense has been suspended for portions of September. (And Baylor is still going to drop when RGIII gets drafted.)
| Team | Conference | New Proj. F/+ | Rank | February Rk | Change |
| Alabama | SEC | +37.2% | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LSU | SEC | +32.8% | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | Big 12 | +27.4% | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Oklahoma State | Big 12 | +26.8% | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| Oregon | Pac-12 | +23.3% | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| USC | Pac-12 | +21.2% | 6 | 5 | -1 |
| Georgia | SEC | +20.3% | 7 | 10 | 3 |
| Florida State | ACC | +19.1% | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| Stanford | Pac-12 | +19.0% | 9 | 11 | 2 |
| Texas | Big 12 | +18.4% | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| Notre Dame | Independent | +16.9% | 11 | 12 | 1 |
| Michigan | Big Ten | +16.8% | 12 | 8 | -4 |
| Florida | SEC | +16.3% | 13 | 14 | 1 |
| Arkansas | SEC | +15.2% | 14 | 15 | 1 |
| South Carolina | SEC | +15.1% | 15 | 19 | 4 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | +15.0% | 16 | 13 | -3 |
| West Virginia | Big 12 | +14.7% | 17 | 23 | 6 |
| Wisconsin | Big Ten | +14.7% | 18 | 30 | 12 |
| Michigan State | Big Ten | +14.6% | 19 | 17 | -2 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | +14.4% | 20 | 16 | -4 |
| TCU | Big 12 | +13.9% | 21 | 22 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | +13.8% | 22 | 27 | 5 |
| Tennessee | SEC | +12.0% | 23 | 20 | -3 |
| Nebraska | Big Ten | +11.9% | 24 | 18 | -6 |
| South Florida | Big East | +11.6% | 25 | 31 | 6 |
Full list, as always, after the jump.
| Team | Conference | New Proj. F/+ | Rank | February Rk | Change |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | +11.6% | 26 | 35 | 9 |
| Auburn | SEC | +9.9% | 27 | 21 | -6 |
| Baylor | Big 12 | +9.6% | 28 | 24 | -4 |
| Houston | C-USA | +9.5% | 29 | 34 | 5 |
| Missouri | SEC | +9.2% | 30 | 29 | -1 |
| Clemson | ACC | +9.2% | 31 | 26 | -5 |
| North Carolina | ACC | +8.2% | 32 | 37 | 5 |
| Utah | Pac-12 | +7.8% | 33 | 28 | -5 |
| BYU | Independent | +7.6% | 34 | 38 | 4 |
| Kansas State | Big 12 | +7.2% | 35 | 32 | -3 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | +7.0% | 36 | 33 | -3 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | +7.0% | 37 | 46 | 9 |
| Texas Tech | Big 12 | +6.5% | 38 | 36 | -2 |
| Boise State | MWC | +6.3% | 39 | 61 | 22 |
| Rutgers | Big East | +5.9% | 40 | 25 | -15 |
| Pittsburgh | Big East | +5.8% | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| Boston College | ACC | +5.0% | 42 | 45 | 3 |
| Iowa | Big Ten | +4.9% | 43 | 50 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | Big East | +4.9% | 44 | 42 | -2 |
| Miami | ACC | +4.8% | 45 | 40 | -5 |
| Southern Miss | C-USA | +4.6% | 46 | 47 | 1 |
| Tulsa | C-USA | +4.3% | 47 | 53 | 6 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | +4.1% | 48 | 43 | -5 |
| Central Florida | C-USA | +4.0% | 49 | 52 | 3 |
| Louisville | Big East | +3.0% | 50 | 39 | -11 |
| Team | Conference | New Proj. F/+ | Rank | February Rk | Change |
| Illinois | Big Ten | +2.9% | 51 | 56 | 5 |
| Louisiana Tech | WAC | +2.1% | 52 | 51 | -1 |
| Connecticut | Big East | +1.7% | 53 | 57 | 4 |
| N.C. State | ACC | +1.5% | 54 | 60 | 6 |
| California | Pac-12 | +1.4% | 55 | 49 | -6 |
| Florida International | Sun Belt | -0.2% | 56 | 44 | -12 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | -0.8% | 57 | 63 | 6 |
| UCLA | Pac-12 | -1.5% | 58 | 54 | -4 |
| Washington | Pac-12 | -1.7% | 59 | 48 | -11 |
| Arizona State | Pac-12 | -2.1% | 60 | 59 | -1 |
| Ohio | MAC | -2.1% | 61 | 58 | -3 |
| Virginia | ACC | -2.5% | 62 | 62 | 0 |
| Nevada | MWC | -2.8% | 63 | 83 | 20 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | -3.0% | 64 | 68 | 4 |
| SMU | C-USA | -3.3% | 65 | 64 | -1 |
| Maryland | ACC | -3.4% | 66 | 66 | 0 |
| Arizona | Pac-12 | -3.4% | 67 | 76 | 9 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | -3.5% | 68 | 73 | 5 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | -3.7% | 69 | 72 | 3 |
| Purdue | Big Ten | -4.1% | 70 | 67 | -3 |
| Toledo | MAC | -4.2% | 71 | 75 | 4 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | -4.6% | 72 | 55 | -17 |
| Temple | Big East | -4.7% | 73 | 78 | 5 |
| Oregon State | Pac-12 | -4.8% | 74 | 69 | -5 |
| Duke | ACC | -4.8% | 75 | 65 | -10 |
| Team | Conference | New Proj. F/+ | Rank | February Rk | Change |
| Navy | Independent | -5.1% | 76 | 91 | 15 |
| Miami (Ohio) |
MAC | -5.3% | 77 | 77 | 0 |
| Syracuse | Big East | -5.6% | 78 | 71 | -7 |
| Utah State | WAC | -5.6% | 79 | 79 | 0 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | -5.7% | 80 | 74 | -6 |
| Fresno State | MWC | -6.7% | 81 | 97 | 16 |
| East Carolina | C-USA | -6.8% | 82 | 90 | 8 |
| Kentucky | SEC | -7.5% | 83 | 80 | -3 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | -7.9% | 84 | 92 | 8 |
| Iowa State | Big 12 | -8.4% | 85 | 70 | -15 |
| San Diego State | MWC | -8.8% | 86 | 81 | -5 |
| Arkansas State | Sun Belt | -9.2% | 87 | 85 | -2 |
| Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | -9.6% | 88 | 82 | -6 |
| Ball State | MAC | -10.5% | 89 | 95 | 6 |
| UL-Monroe | Sun Belt | -10.6% | 90 | 100 | 10 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | -11.0% | 91 | 88 | -3 |
| Kent State | MAC | -11.3% | 92 | 99 | 7 |
| Hawaii | MWC | -11.7% | 93 | 94 | 1 |
| Marshall | C-USA | -11.7% | 94 | 89 | -5 |
| Army | Independent | -12.2% | 95 | 105 | 10 |
| Minnesota | Big Ten | -12.4% | 96 | 87 | -9 |
| Washington State | Pac-12 | -12.5% | 97 | 84 | -13 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | -12.6% | 98 | 86 | -12 |
| UL-Lafayette | Sun Belt | -12.7% | 99 | 93 | -6 |
| Troy | Sun Belt | -13.2% | 100 | 108 | 8 |
| Team | Conference | New Proj. F/+ | Rank | February Rk | Change |
| Colorado | Pac-12 | -13.8% | 101 | 101 | 0 |
| Colorado State | MWC | -13.9% | 102 | 96 | -6 |
| Air Force | MWC | -14.2% | 103 | 112 | 9 |
| UTEP | C-USA | -14.2% | 104 | 104 | 0 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | -14.3% | 105 | 103 | -2 |
| North Texas | Sun Belt | -14.8% | 106 | 98 | -8 |
| Buffalo | MAC | -15.3% | 107 | 111 | 4 |
| Wyoming | MWC | -15.8% | 108 | 102 | -6 |
| UTSA | WAC | -16.7% | 109 | NR | NR |
| San Jose State | WAC | -18.3% | 110 | 107 | -3 |
| Tulane | C-USA | -18.6% | 111 | 109 | -2 |
| Rice | C-USA | -19.9% | 112 | 106 | -6 |
| Middle Tennessee | Sun Belt | -21.9% | 113 | 117 | 4 |
| Florida Atlantic | Sun Belt | -22.3% | 114 | 115 | 1 |
| UAB | C-USA | -22.7% | 115 | 113 | -2 |
| Massachusetts | MAC | -23.5% | 116 | NR | NR |
| Memphis | C-USA | -23.7% | 117 | 110 | -7 |
| Idaho | WAC | -23.8% | 118 | 114 | -4 |
| UNLV | MWC | -24.5% | 120 | 116 | -4 |
| South Alabama | Sun Belt | -24.5% | 119 | NR | NR |
| New Mexico State | WAC | -25.5% | 121 | 118 | -3 |
| Texas State | WAC | -25.5% | 122 | NR | NR |
| Akron | MAC | -26.9% | 123 | 119 | -4 |
| New Mexico | MWC | -30.1% | 124 | 120 | -4 |
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