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Today at the Mothership, I took a look at the way recent recruiting rankings might actually have an impact on the field in 2012. To further elaborate on the impact two-year recruiting rankings and returning starter data might have on F/+ projections, I felt that going all out to create a full Top 120 (yes, 120 -- not ready to address the new teams yet) might be the best thing to do. Even in saying that Ohio State, Indiana and Vanderbilt might improve a solid amount (or that Arizona and Penn State could regress) doesn't really give you a good glimpse of the big picture.
Below are some rough F/+ projections for 2012, taking into account only three factors: 2011 F/+ ratings, two-year weighted recruiting data and lost starters. These are, after all, the components to anybody's predictions/projections, math-based or not: how were they last year, who are they bringing back, and who are they bringing in?
What we will see as the offseason progresses are more refined ways of determining these pieces. Instead of simply looking at last year, we will see more recent history taken into account. We've determined that four- and five-year history are typically more predictive than simply looking at last year. Plus, there will be adjustments made to the Returning Starters figure based on the magnitude of the players lost/returning. For instance, Oklahoma State loses only six starters, but that list includes Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, both of whom were far better than the average starter. Plus, we might find there is an even better way to take recruiting into account. (In other words, I cannot stress enough how "rough" these projections are. Plus, and this is also quite important: I haven't run any of this by Brian Fremeau yet.) But I'm a visual learner, and I thought the best way to look at the impact of incoming and outgoing talent would be to isolate these three variables.
(And yes, projections see plenty to like about 20 returning starters; I doubt the final projections have either Tennessee or Texas Tech ranked this high, but it certainly does emphasize the role of experience. At least, I hope it changes, as my alma mater's new place of residence -- the SEC East -- currently has six teams in the Top 33.)
| Proj. Rk |
Team | Conference | 2011 F/+ | Rk | 2012 Recruiting F/+ |
Rk | 2012 Returning Starters |
2012 Projected F/+ |
| 1 | Alabama | SEC | 35.8% | 1 | 33.0% | 1 | 13 | 32.9% |
| 2 | LSU | SEC | 34.1% | 2 | 28.2% | 8 | 14 | 32.6% |
| 3 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 27.4% | 3 | 17.6% | 28 | 16 | 28.5% |
| 4 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 21.9% | 7 | 24.8% | 16 | 17 | 27.3% |
| 5 | USC | Pac-12 | 16.2% | 11 | 30.9% | 4 | 17 | 24.0% |
| 6 | Florida State | ACC | 18.4% | 8 | 31.0% | 3 | 15 | 22.8% |
| 7 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 23.8% | 5 | 26.8% | 11 | 13 | 22.5% |
| 8 | Michigan | Big Ten | 16.0% | 12 | 24.9% | 15 | 16 | 21.0% |
| 9 | Texas | Big 12 | 12.1% | 19 | 31.5% | 2 | 17 | 20.9% |
| 10 | Georgia | SEC | 14.9% | 15 | 29.0% | 6 | 15 | 19.6% |
| 11 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 17.7% | 9 | 25.7% | 12 | 14 | 19.4% |
| 12 | Notre Dame | Independent | 15.5% | 13 | 25.1% | 14 | 15 | 19.2% |
| 13 | Texas A&M | SEC | 14.5% | 16 | 21.1% | 22 | 16 | 19.0% |
| 14 | Florida | SEC | 7.8% | 30 | 28.1% | 9 | 18 | 17.9% |
| 15 | Arkansas | SEC | 15.0% | 14 | 18.3% | 26 | 15 | 17.3% |
| 16 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 5.9% | 38 | 29.1% | 5 | 18 | 16.5% |
| 17 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 16.8% | 10 | 15.0% | 34 | 14 | 16.3% |
| 18 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 10.1% | 26 | 21.5% | 21 | 16 | 15.6% |
| 19 | South Carolina | SEC | 11.1% | 21 | 24.6% | 17 | 14 | 14.1% |
| 20 | Tennessee | SEC | 1.0% | 57 | 25.4% | 13 | 20 | 13.9% |
| 21 | Auburn | SEC | 2.5% | 52 | 28.4% | 7 | 18 | 13.6% |
| 22 | TCU | Big 12 | 14.2% | 17 | 16.7% | 32 | 13 | 12.9% |
| 23 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 10.6% | 23 | 7.8% | 45 | 16 | 12.9% |
| 24 | Baylor | Big 12 | 8.4% | 29 | 9.4% | 40 | 16 | 11.5% |
| 25 | Rutgers | Big East | 7.2% | 34 | 18.6% | 25 | 15 | 11.2% |
As always, full list after the jump.
| Proj. Rk |
Team | Conference | 2011 F/+ | Rk | 2012 Recruiting F/+ |
Rk | 2012 Returning Starters |
2012 Projected F/+ |
| 26 | Clemson | ACC | 6.3% | 36 | 27.6% | 10 | 14 | 11.0% |
| 27 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 11.1% | 22 | 17.5% | 29 | 13 | 10.7% |
| 28 | Utah | Pac-12 | 2.4% | 54 | 15.5% | 33 | 18 | 10.6% |
| 29 | Missouri | SEC | 10.2% | 25 | 11.5% | 38 | 14 | 10.4% |
| 30 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 22.3% | 6 | 8.0% | 44 | 10 | 10.4% |
| 31 | South Florida | Big East | 5.4% | 40 | 3.2% | 55 | 18 | 10.3% |
| 32 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 7.3% | 33 | -3.9% | 66 | 18 | 10.2% |
| 33 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 4.4% | 46 | 6.5% | 47 | 18 | 10.1% |
| 34 | Houston | C-USA | 12.4% | 18 | -1.9% | 62 | 14 | 9.0% |
| 35 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 3.9% | 48 | 8.4% | 41 | 17 | 8.9% |
| 36 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | -4.7% | 76 | 22.2% | 19 | 20 | 8.3% |
| 37 | North Carolina | ACC | 3.7% | 49 | 18.1% | 27 | 15 | 8.3% |
| 38 | BYU | Independent | 6.3% | 37 | -6.6% | 73 | 17 | 7.5% |
| 39 | Louisville | Big East | 4.7% | 44 | 13.9% | 36 | 14 | 6.7% |
| 40 | Miami | ACC | 7.4% | 32 | 19.1% | 24 | 12 | 6.5% |
| 41 | Pittsburgh | Big East | 4.3% | 47 | 4.6% | 51 | 15 | 5.8% |
| 42 | Cincinnati | Big East | 9.6% | 27 | 8.3% | 43 | 12 | 5.6% |
| 43 | Mississippi State | SEC | 5.1% | 43 | 13.5% | 37 | 13 | 5.3% |
| 44 | Florida International | Sun Belt | 0.0% | 60 | -5.6% | 70 | 19 | 4.9% |
| 45 | Boston College | ACC | -3.0% | 69 | 5.3% | 50 | 19 | 4.9% |
| 46 | Penn State | Big Ten | 7.5% | 31 | 10.8% | 39 | 12 | 4.7% |
| 47 | Southern Miss | C-USA | 11.4% | 20 | -4.7% | 69 | 12 | 4.1% |
| 48 | Washington | Pac-12 | -1.0% | 64 | 21.8% | 20 | 14 | 4.1% |
| 49 | California | Pac-12 | 4.7% | 45 | 23.7% | 18 | 11 | 3.7% |
| 50 | Iowa | Big Ten | 5.1% | 42 | 13.9% | 35 | 12 | 3.7% |
| Proj. Rk |
Team | Conference | 2011 F/+ | Rk | 2012 Recruiting F/+ |
Rk | 2012 Returning Starters |
2012 Projected F/+ |
| 51 | Louisiana Tech | WAC | 5.5% | 39 | -16.5% | 89 | 16 | 3.3% |
| 52 | Central Florida | C-USA | 2.5% | 53 | -3.9% | 67 | 15 | 2.4% |
| 53 | Tulsa | C-USA | 6.8% | 35 | -13.3% | 85 | 14 | 2.2% |
| 54 | UCLA | Pac-12 | -6.7% | 83 | 17.2% | 31 | 16 | 1.2% |
| 55 | Ole Miss | SEC | -9.9% | 95 | 17.3% | 30 | 17 | -0.2% |
| 56 | Illinois | Big Ten | -0.1% | 62 | -2.3% | 63 | 14 | -0.8% |
| 57 | Connecticut | Big East | -0.1% | 61 | -21.3% | 98 | 17 | -1.0% |
| 58 | Ohio | MAC | 1.8% | 56 | -17.5% | 91 | 15 | -1.3% |
| 59 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 5.2% | 41 | 8.3% | 42 | 10 | -1.5% |
| 60 | N.C. State | ACC | -2.6% | 67 | -9.3% | 75 | 16 | -1.6% |
| 61 | Boise State | Big East | 26.9% | 4 | -0.5% | 60 | 6 | -1.7% |
| 62 | Virginia | ACC | -1.4% | 65 | 19.2% | 23 | 11 | -1.7% |
| 63 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 3.0% | 50 | -12.9% | 84 | 13 | -2.3% |
| 64 | SMU | C-USA | 1.8% | 55 | -3.4% | 65 | 12 | -2.8% |
| 65 | Duke | ACC | -5.2% | 77 | -5.7% | 71 | 16 | -2.8% |
| 66 | Maryland | ACC | -10.2% | 96 | 6.0% | 48 | 17 | -3.0% |
| 67 | Purdue | Big Ten | -4.6% | 73 | -9.7% | 78 | 16 | -3.2% |
| 68 | Bowling Green | MAC | -4.7% | 75 | -24.3% | 108 | 19 | -3.2% |
| 69 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | -7.4% | 86 | 7.5% | 46 | 14 | -4.1% |
| 70 | Iowa State | Big 12 | -3.9% | 72 | 1.6% | 57 | 13 | -4.2% |
| 71 | Syracuse | Big East | -3.5% | 71 | -6.6% | 72 | 14 | -4.3% |
| 72 | Western Michigan | MAC | 2.8% | 51 | -21.3% | 99 | 13 | -4.4% |
| 73 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 0.6% | 59 | -7.0% | 74 | 12 | -4.4% |
| 74 | Wake Forest | ACC | -1.6% | 66 | -2.8% | 64 | 12 | -5.1% |
| 75 | Toledo | MAC | 8.8% | 28 | -9.6% | 77 | 9 | -5.4% |
| Proj. Rk |
Team | Conference | 2011 F/+ | Rk | 2012 Recruiting F/+ |
Rk | 2012 Returning Starters |
2012 Projected F/+ |
| 76 | Arizona | Pac-12 | -5.5% | 79 | 5.5% | 49 | 12 | -6.1% |
| 77 | Miami (Ohio) |
MAC | -6.5% | 82 | -26.6% | 116 | 18 | -6.4% |
| 78 | Temple | MAC | 10.3% | 24 | -20.5% | 96 | 9 | -6.9% |
| 79 | Utah State | WAC | -3.1% | 70 | -20.9% | 97 | 14 | -7.2% |
| 80 | Kentucky | SEC | -8.9% | 89 | 2.5% | 56 | 13 | -7.8% |
| 81 | San Diego State | MWC | -2.9% | 68 | -10.3% | 79 | 12 | -7.8% |
| 82 | Western Kentucky | Sun Belt | -7.0% | 84 | -23.1% | 105 | 16 | -8.2% |
| 83 | Nevada | MWC | -0.8% | 63 | -19.1% | 95 | 12 | -8.2% |
| 84 | Washington State | Pac-12 | -12.1% | 100 | -0.1% | 59 | 15 | -8.2% |
| 85 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 0.8% | 58 | -9.6% | 76 | 10 | -8.7% |
| 86 | Indiana | Big Ten | -18.3% | 112 | 1.3% | 58 | 19 | -8.8% |
| 87 | Minnesota | Big Ten | -11.0% | 99 | 3.6% | 54 | 13 | -9.1% |
| 88 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | -10.4% | 97 | -25.1% | 110 | 18 | -9.2% |
| 89 | Marshall | C-USA | -7.9% | 87 | -0.8% | 61 | 12 | -9.3% |
| 90 | East Carolina | C-USA | -8.9% | 90 | -10.9% | 80 | 14 | -9.5% |
| 91 | Navy | Independent | -5.8% | 81 | -17.4% | 90 | 13 | -10.0% |
| 92 | Central Michigan | MAC | -12.4% | 101 | -22.7% | 102 | 18 | -10.3% |
| 93 | UL-Lafayette | Sun Belt | -5.5% | 78 | -13.6% | 86 | 12 | -10.4% |
| 94 | Hawaii | MWC | -4.6% | 74 | -17.5% | 92 | 12 | -10.7% |
| 95 | Ball State | MAC | -9.4% | 93 | -27.8% | 118 | 16 | -11.2% |
| 96 | Colorado State | MWC | -15.4% | 105 | -15.6% | 87 | 18 | -11.2% |
| 97 | Fresno State | MWC | -8.5% | 88 | -31.5% | 120 | 16 | -11.3% |
| 98 | North Texas | Sun Belt | -13.6% | 102 | -22.9% | 103 | 18 | -11.3% |
| 99 | Kent State | MAC | -9.4% | 92 | -25.3% | 111 | 15 | -11.8% |
| 100 | UL-Monroe | Sun Belt | -9.7% | 94 | -26.0% | 114 | 15 | -12.2% |
| Proj. Rk |
Team | Conference | 2011 F/+ | Rk | 2012 Recruiting F/+ |
Rk | 2012 Returning Starters |
2012 Projected F/+ |
| 101 | Colorado | Pac-12 | -17.1% | 108 | 3.7% | 52 | 14 | -12.5% |
| 102 | Wyoming | MWC | -13.7% | 103 | -11.6% | 83 | 14 | -13.3% |
| 103 | Kansas | Big 12 | -19.8% | 113 | 3.7% | 53 | 15 | -13.4% |
| 104 | UTEP | C-USA | -9.0% | 91 | -25.0% | 109 | 13 | -14.1% |
| 105 | Army | Independent | -15.9% | 106 | -23.3% | 107 | 16 | -15.3% |
| 106 | Rice | C-USA | -10.8% | 98 | -11.3% | 82 | 11 | -15.5% |
| 107 | San Jose State | WAC | -7.1% | 85 | -25.4% | 113 | 11 | -16.0% |
| 108 | Troy | Sun Belt | -16.2% | 107 | -22.6% | 101 | 15 | -16.6% |
| 109 | Tulane | C-USA | -20.9% | 114 | -18.1% | 93 | 17 | -17.2% |
| 110 | Memphis | C-USA | -24.1% | 117 | -4.6% | 68 | 15 | -18.6% |
| 111 | Buffalo | MAC | -13.7% | 104 | -31.3% | 119 | 13 | -19.1% |
| 112 | Air Force | MWC | -5.7% | 80 | -11.1% | 81 | 7 | -20.5% |
| 113 | UAB | C-USA | -18.0% | 111 | -16.2% | 88 | 11 | -21.8% |
| 114 | Idaho | WAC | -17.4% | 110 | -25.3% | 111 | 12 | -21.9% |
| 115 | Florida Atlantic | Sun Belt | -24.6% | 118 | -18.2% | 94 | 15 | -22.2% |
| 116 | UNLV | MWC | -23.5% | 116 | -22.3% | 100 | 15 | -22.2% |
| 117 | Middle Tennessee | Sun Belt | -21.9% | 115 | -23.2% | 106 | 13 | -23.5% |
| 118 | New Mexico State | WAC | -17.2% | 109 | -26.7% | 117 | 10 | -25.2% |
| 119 | Akron | MAC | -27.5% | 119 | -26.1% | 115 | 15 | -26.3% |
| 120 | New Mexico | MWC | -35.5% | 120 | -23.0% | 104 | 15 | -31.8% |
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