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Retrofitting, Revisited

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A giant table comparing S&P+ projections to actual results.

Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

I meant to do this yesterday, but in conjunction with this week's Varsity Numbers, in which I tested some odd S&P+ ratings against the schedule at hand, I wanted to share some data.

Below, you'll see an enormous table with the following columns:

  • Team
  • Current S&P+ Ranking
  • Conference
  • Games Played
  • Games the current S&P+ rankings project correctly
  • % of games S&P+ gets correct
  • Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for away games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
  • Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for home games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
  • Difference between projected point margin and actual point margin for all games (a positive number means the team performed better than projected)
  • Home-road splits regarding difference in projected-versus-actual performance (a positive number means you perform better, compared to projections, on the road).

So here you go.

Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Alabama 1 SEC 8 8 1.000 2.5 4.2 0.7 -1.8
Oregon 2 Pac-12 8 8 1.000 10.0 4.5 7.3 5.5
Florida 3 SEC 8 7 0.875 15.1 5.8 4.5 9.2
Notre Dame 4 Indy 8 7 0.875 0.2 6.7 4.3 -6.5
Oklahoma 5 Big 12 7 5 0.714 -7.8 -7.5 -7.6 -0.3
Texas A&M 6 SEC 8 7 0.875 -11.7 -9.1 -10.4 -2.6
Florida State 7 ACC 9 8 0.889 -10.6 -7.0 -4.6 -3.5
LSU 8 SEC 8 7 0.875 -15.9 11.4 -1.5 -27.4
Michigan State 9 Big Ten 9 7 0.778 6.6 -1.5 2.6 8.1
Tennessee 10 SEC 8 6 0.750 -6.1 13.4 2.5 -19.5
Arizona 11 Pac-12 8 6 0.750 16.7 -3.4 4.1 20.1
Michigan 12 Big Ten 8 8 1.000 -4.3 10.4 3.1 -14.7
BYU 13 Indy 9 7 0.778 4.2 4.6 4.4 -0.5
Nebraska 14 Big Ten 8 7 0.875 5.5 4.0 4.6 1.5
Fresno State 15 MWC 9 8 0.889 6.1 15.9 10.4 -9.8
Boise State 16 MWC 8 8 1.000 3.4 5.6 4.4 -2.2
Texas Tech 17 Big 12 8 8 1.000 -5.2 3.0 -0.7 -8.2
Kansas State 18 Big 12 8 7 0.875 -4.7 -1.8 -3.1 -2.8
Ohio State 19 Big Ten 9 8 0.889 -9.1 -7.7 -8.3 -1.4
South Carolina 20 SEC 9 9 1.000 10.3 3.0 4.3 7.3
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Utah State 21 WAC 9 9 1.000 -1.2 6.7 2.3 -7.9
Georgia 22 SEC 8 6 0.750 8.3 12.3 10.8 -4.0
Stanford 23 Pac-12 8 7 0.875 6.2 0.8 3.5 5.4
Oregon State 24 Pac-12 7 5 0.714 19.3 4.6 13.8 14.6
Wisconsin 25 Big Ten 9 9 1.000 -14.2 -0.1 -8.1 -14.1
Oklahoma State 26 Big 12 7 6 0.857 -4.7 17.4 9.1 -22.1
Ole Miss 27 SEC 8 6 0.750 -12.7 -7.7 -9.9 -5.1
Texas 28 Big 12 8 5 0.625 7.2 -0.1 3.6 7.3
Arkansas 29 SEC 8 5 0.625 10.5 13.3 11.9 -2.8
Washington 30 Pac-12 8 7 0.875 -23.0 -4.4 -16.0 -18.7
West Virginia 31 Big 12 7 6 0.857 10.1 3.1 6.6 7.0
USC 32 Pac-12 8 7 0.875 -1.7 2.4 0.6 -4.1
Arizona State 33 Pac-12 8 6 0.750 6.0 2.4 7.7 3.6
Mississippi State 34 SEC 8 7 0.875 0.7 27.1 15.4 -26.4
Iowa State 35 Big 12 8 8 1.000 -3.4 2.6 1.1 -5.9
Clemson 36 ACC 8 8 1.000 4.7 4.6 4.7 0.1
UCLA 37 Pac-12 8 6 0.750 -9.0 1.5 -3.7 -10.5
Syracuse 38 Big East 8 4 0.500 10.7 5.6 8.4 5.1
Penn State 39 Big Ten 8 6 0.750 -6.9 3.4 -1.7 -10.3
Northwestern 40 Big Ten 9 8 0.889 0.4 -2.4 -0.9 2.8
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Missouri 41 SEC 8 6 0.750 19.6 2.3 11.0 17.3
Baylor 42 Big 12 7 6 0.857 -19.6 7.1 0.4 -26.7
California 43 Pac-12 9 8 0.889 2.8 10.8 6.8 -7.9
Louisiana Tech 44 WAC 8 8 1.000 -6.8 -3.7 -5.3 -3.0
TCU 45 Big 12 8 7 0.875 7.6 6.1 6.7 1.5
South Florida 46 Big East 8 4 0.500 -8.3 3.7 -2.3 -11.9
Western Kentucky 47 Sun Belt 8 5 0.625 1.5 -4.9 -1.7 6.4
Virginia Tech 48 ACC 8 6 0.750 -13.4 -12.5 -12.8 -0.9
San Jose State 49 WAC 8 8 1.000 5.7 -4.3 0.7 9.9
NC State 50 ACC 8 7 0.875 15.8 1.1 8.5 14.7
Georgia Tech 51 ACC 8 6 0.750 5.2 13.7 10.5 -8.5
Iowa 52 Big Ten 8 6 0.750 2.0 4.3 3.6 -2.3
Miami-FL 53 ACC 8 6 0.750 -6.8 3.3 -1.7 -10.1
Louisville 54 Big East 8 8 1.000 6.0 4.5 5.5 1.5
Utah 55 Pac-12 8 7 0.875 -11.8 -1.7 -4.8 -10.1
Arkansas State 56 Sun Belt 8 7 0.875 -2.9 20.1 12.5 -23.1
Minnesota 57 Big Ten 8 7 0.875 -18.0 -4.5 -9.6 -13.5
Kansas 58 Big 12 8 7 0.875 -1.4 2.2 0.1 -3.7
North Carolina 59 ACC 9 7 0.778 -5.5 -6.6 -5.3 1.1
Central Florida 60 CUSA 8 8 1.000 19.6 18.5 18.9 1.0
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Kentucky 61 SEC 9 8 0.889 9.5 7.4 8.5 2.1
Rutgers 62 Big East 8 4 0.500 -9.5 14.9 4.1 -24.4
Purdue 63 Big Ten 8 8 1.000 8.8 9.6 9.1 -0.8
Houston 64 CUSA 8 7 0.875 10.2 13.1 10.3 -2.9
Tulsa 65 CUSA 8 7 0.875 -10.2 -15.2 -12.7 5.0
Northern Illinois 66 MAC 9 8 0.889 4.2 10.5 8.4 -6.3
Auburn 67 SEC 8 8 1.000 2.2 -10.3 -4.8 12.5
Virginia 68 ACC 8 5 0.625 -11.2 -5.3 -7.5 -5.9
San Diego State 69 MWC 9 8 0.889 12.8 2.9 8.4 9.9
Ball State 70 MAC 9 6 0.667 -7.9 -3.8 -4.6 -4.1
Pittsburgh 71 Big East 8 6 0.750 5.5 -5.0 0.2 10.5
SMU 72 CUSA 8 7 0.875 1.1 15.9 10.8 -14.8
UNLV 73 MWC 9 6 0.667 1.6 4.9 1.3 -3.3
Wake Forest 74 ACC 8 6 0.750 -5.9 -8.0 -7.0 2.1
Vanderbilt 75 SEC 8 7 0.875 -14.8 -13.5 -12.9 -1.3
Florida International 76 Sun Belt 9 8 0.889 -21.3 0.7 -7.6 -22.0
Indiana 77 Big Ten 8 6 0.750 12.4 -3.9 2.2 16.3
UL-Monroe 78 Sun Belt 8 5 0.625 8.0 15.3 11.6 -7.2
Connecticut 79 Big East 8 6 0.750 10.1 -0.3 5.6 10.4
Washington State 80 Pac-12 8 6 0.750 -9.0 -1.3 -5.1 -7.7
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Kent State 81 MAC 8 6 0.750 8.0 13.9 11.0 -5.9
Bowling Green 82 MAC 9 9 1.000 -13.1 10.9 1.9 -24.0
Duke 83 ACC 9 7 0.778 7.0 -1.7 1.2 8.7
Nevada 84 MWC 9 5 0.556 -24.9 -0.3 -4.6 -24.6
Troy 85 Sun Belt 8 6 0.750 -7.5 -7.7 -7.6 0.2
Cincinnati 86 Big East 7 6 0.857 -3.0 14.4 6.7 -17.4
Wyoming 87 MWC 8 5 0.625 -17.5 -13.7 -16.1 -3.8
Navy 88 Indy 8 6 0.750 -18.2 1.4 -7.3 -19.6
Boston College 89 ACC 8 7 0.875 2.6 -0.4 0.9 3.0
UL-Lafayette 90 Sun Belt 7 6 0.857 -2.4 3.2 -0.3 -5.6
Middle Tennessee 91 Sun Belt 8 5 0.625 -8.0 7.8 1.9 -15.7
Toledo 92 MAC 9 6 0.667 -11.8 -3.1 -6.4 -8.6
Air Force 93 MWC 8 6 0.750 7.0 -14.4 -4.9 21.3
Texas State 94 WAC 7 5 0.714 5.3 -9.7 -2.2 14.9
New Mexico 95 MWC 9 9 1.000 1.8 14.1 9.5 -12.3
Maryland 96 ACC 8 5 0.625 -3.6 15.1 3.6 -18.7
Buffalo 97 MAC 8 6 0.750 -3.0 8.1 1.9 -11.1
Marshall 98 CUSA 8 5 0.625 8.7 1.9 5.3 6.8
Western Michigan 99 MAC 9 8 0.889 -10.9 -5.2 -8.1 -5.6
Illinois 100 Big Ten 8 7 0.875 -6.6 -1.5 -4.6 -5.1
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
Central Michigan 101 MAC 8 6 0.750 1.9 4.6 3.7 -2.7
UTEP 102 CUSA 9 9 1.000 -1.6 -7.6 -4.9 6.0
Southern Miss 103 CUSA 8 6 0.750 -4.4 11.6 4.7 -16.0
Miami-OH 104 MAC 8 7 0.875 4.6 5.4 5.1 -0.8
UAB 105 CUSA 8 7 0.875 -14.5 2.8 -8.0 -17.2
North Texas 106 Sun Belt 8 7 0.875 -21.8 -2.6 -9.8 -19.2
Ohio 107 MAC 8 6 0.750 -4.8 11.2 5.2 -16.0
Rice 108 CUSA 9 6 0.667 0.9 15.9 7.6 -15.0
Temple 109 Big East 7 4 0.571 1.8 -7.6 -3.6 9.5
Colorado State 110 MWC 8 8 1.000 6.0 2.3 3.7 3.7
East Carolina 111 CUSA 9 7 0.778 -6.9 18.7 11.3 -25.6
Akron 112 MAC 9 8 0.889 0.5 10.4 7.9 -9.8
Florida Atlantic 113 Sun Belt 8 5 0.625 -13.1 -4.4 -6.6 -8.6
Colorado 114 Pac-12 8 6 0.750 -3.0 13.1 7.8 -16.1
Army 115 Indy 8 6 0.750 0.3 8.0 5.1 -7.6
Tulane 116 CUSA 8 7 0.875 -3.0 -2.2 -2.7 -0.8
Eastern Michigan 117 MAC 8 8 1.000 15.6 -5.7 2.3 21.2
Idaho 118 WAC 8 7 0.875 2.6 6.1 4.3 -3.4
New Mexico State 119 WAC 8 7 0.875 11.9 19.0 14.0 -7.1
UTSA 120 WAC 8 5 0.625 -3.0 -3.4 -3.2 0.4
Team
S&P+
Rk
Conference Games Correct
%
Correct
Away
Differential
Home
Differential
Total
Differential
Home/
Road
Split
South Alabama 121 Sun Belt 8 6 0.750 -4.0 -8.6 -6.3 4.6
Memphis 122 CUSA 8 6 0.750 6.5 -4.1 -1.2 10.7
Hawaii 123 MWC 7 7 1.000 -0.3 2.0 1.1 -2.3
Massachusetts 124 MAC 8 8 1.000 -4.1 3.4 1.5 -7.5