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So ... did you happen to notice how well the picks did last week? Not saying it won't suddenly regress, in crushing fashion, back toward the mean this week, but ... good week. Really, really good week. Can I just quit now?
I was hoping that, somehow, in the way I was phasing out the projections and raw data in favor of opponent-adjusted data, I had caught on to something that would lead to a really nice string of picks performances. But really, I figured Vegas was about to get its revenge. It did. It always does.
- Week 1: 22-19 (53.7%)
Week 2: 22-23 (48.9%)
Week 3: 24-23 (51.1%)
Week 4: 30-19 (61.2%)
Week 5: 21-29-1 (42.2%) - Total: 119-113-1 (51.3%)
Yep. It was a really fun few days, though, wasn't it? As for the picks below ... buyer beware: half of the projections below fall within 3.5 points of the spread. Have fun with that.
@sbn_billc Golly, those Vegas guys are pretty good at their jobs, aren't they.
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) October 2, 2012
| Day | Time | TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread | Pick |
| Thursday | 7:30pm | ESPNU | Arkansas State | FIU | FIU by 2.5 | 1.0 | FIU |
| Thursday | 8:00pm | CBS Sports | E. Carolina | UCF | UCF by 18.3 | -11.5 | UCF |
| Thursday | 9:00pm | ESPN | USC | Utah | USC by 10.8 | 14.0 | Utah |
| Day | Time | TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread | Pick |
| Friday | 7:00pm | ESPN | Pittsburgh | Syracuse | Syracuse by 0.1 | -1.0 | Pittsburgh |
| Friday | 10:15pm | ESPN | Utah State | BYU | BYU by 14.5 | -7.0 | BYU |
| Day | Time | TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread | Pick |
| Saturday | 11:30am | CBS | Navy | Air Force | Air Force by 17.9 | -7.5 | Air Force |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPN2 | Arkansas | Auburn | Auburn by 10 | -9.5 | Auburn |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | BTN | Mich. St. | Indiana | MSU by 10.9 | 16.0 | Indiana |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPNU | UConn | Rutgers | Rutgers by 6.4 | -7.5 | UConn |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPN3 | Buffalo | Ohio | Ohio by 7.7 | -14.0 | Buffalo |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | ESPN | Northwestern | Penn State | Penn State by 7 | -3.0 | Penn State |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | BTN | USF | Temple | USF by 4.3 | 4.0 | USF |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | CBS Sports | B.C. | Army | B.C. by 8.2 | 9.5 | Army |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | FX | Kansas | Kansas State | K-State by 21.9 | -24.0 | Kansas |
| Saturday | 12:00pm | FSN | Boise State | So. Miss | BSU by 20.2 | 10.0 | BSU |
| Saturday | 12:21pm | SEC | Miss. St. | Kentucky | MSU by 7.5 | 10.0 | Kentucky |
| Saturday | 12:30pm | ESPN3 | Va. Tech | UNC | UNC by 2.1 | -4.5 | Va. Tech |
| Saturday | 1:00pm | Kent State | E. Michigan | Kent St. by 2.4 | 3.0 | EMU | |
| Saturday | 2:00pm | BGSU | Akron | BGSU by 0.9 | 3.5 | Akron | |
| Saturday | 2:00pm | UMass | W. Michigan | WMU by 9.6 | -17.0 | UMass | |
| Saturday | 3:00pm | Fox | Arizona | Stanford | Stanford by 5.9 | -9.0 | Arizona |
| Saturday | 3:00pm | ESPN3 | Virginia | Duke | Duke by 4.1 | -1.0 | Duke |
| Saturday | 3:00pm | ESPN3 | N. Illinois | Ball State | Ball State by 3.6 | 2.5 | Ball State |
| Saturday | 3:00pm | ESPN3 | C. Michigan | Toledo | Toledo by 12.1 | -10.0 | Toledo |
| Day | Time | TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread | Pick |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | CBS | LSU | Florida | Florida by 3.2 | 2.5 | Florida |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPNU | Wake Forest | Maryland | Maryland by 13.2 | -5.5 | Maryland |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPN | Ga. Tech | Clemson | Clemson by 13.1 | -10.5 | Clemson |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPN2 | Illinois | Wisconsin | Wisconsin by 20.8 | -14.0 | Wisconsin |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | CBS Sports | Tulsa | Marshall | Tulsa by 1.7 | 3.5 | Marshall |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPN3 | UL-Monroe | MTSU | MTSU by 1.4 | 3.0 | MTSU |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | FSN | Iowa State | TCU | TCU by 2.3 | -11.0 | Iowa State |
| Saturday | 3:30pm | ESPN2 | Oklahoma | Texas Tech | Texas Tech by 10.3 | 5.5 | Texas Tech |
| Saturday | 4:00pm | BTN | Michigan | Purdue | Michigan by 3.3 | 3.0 | Michigan |
| Saturday | 5:00pm | NMSU | Idaho | Idaho by 10.1 | -10.5 | NMSU | |
| Saturday | 5:00pm | ESPN3 | Tulane | UL-Lafayette | ULaLa by 30.5 | -26.5 | ULaLa |
| Day | Time | TV | Away | Home | Winner | Spread | Pick |
| Saturday | 6:00pm | Texas State | New Mexico | UNM by 3.2 | -3.5 | Texas State | |
| Saturday | 6:00pm | Pac-12 | Wash. State | Oregon St. | Oregon St. by 22 | -14.5 | Oregon St. |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | FSN | Vanderbilt | Missouri | Missouri by 10.5 | -6.5 | Missouri |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | Fresno St. | Colorado St. | Fresno St. by 24.2 | 17.5 | Fresno St. | |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPNU | Texas A&M | Ole Miss | Texas A&M by 1.9 | 12.5 | Ole Miss |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | FCSC | Rice | Memphis | Rice by 0.9 | 7.5 | Memphis |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | CSS | North Texas | Houston | Houston by 2.9 | -12.0 | North Texas |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | Fox | West Virginia | Texas | Texas by 6.8 | -7.0 | WVU |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPN3 | Miami-OH | Cincinnati | Cincinnati by 25.3 | -19.5 | Cincinnati |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPN3 | UNLV | La. Tech | La. Tech by 18.4 | -24.5 | UNLV |
| Saturday | 7:00pm | ESPN | Georgia | S. Carolina | S.C. by 2.7 | 0.0 | S.C. |
| Saturday | 7:05pm | Wyoming | Nevada | Nevada by 13.6 | -17.0 | Wyoming | |
| Saturday | 7:30pm | NBC | Miami | Notre Dame | Irish by 23.4 | -12.5 | Irish |
| Saturday | 8:00pm | CBS Sports | Hawaii | SDSU | SDSU State by 24.2 | -21.5 | SDSU |
| Saturday | 8:00pm | ESPN2 | Florida St. | N.C. State | FSU by 18.3 | 14.5 | FSU |
| Saturday | 8:00pm | ABC | Nebraska | Ohio State | Ohio State by 1.8 | -3.0 | Nebraska |
| Saturday | 8:00pm | SMU | UTEP | UTEP by 5.5 | -3.0 | UTEP | |
| Saturday | 10:00pm | Pac-12 | UCLA | California | UCLA by 3.4 | 3.0 | UCLA |
| Saturday | 10:30pm | ESPN | Washington | Oregon | Oregon by 23.7 | -24.0 | Washington |
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