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F/+ Picks, Week 6

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Projections for Week 6 of the 2012 college football season.

Harry How - Getty Images

So ... did you happen to notice how well the picks did last week? Not saying it won't suddenly regress, in crushing fashion, back toward the mean this week, but ... good week. Really, really good week. Can I just quit now?

I was hoping that, somehow, in the way I was phasing out the projections and raw data in favor of opponent-adjusted data, I had caught on to something that would lead to a really nice string of picks performances. But really, I figured Vegas was about to get its revenge. It did. It always does.

  • Week 1: 22-19 (53.7%)
    Week 2: 22-23 (48.9%)
    Week 3: 24-23 (51.1%)
    Week 4: 30-19 (61.2%)
    Week 5: 21-29-1 (42.2%)
  • Total: 119-113-1 (51.3%)

Yep. It was a really fun few days, though, wasn't it? As for the picks below ... buyer beware: half of the projections below fall within 3.5 points of the spread. Have fun with that.

Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Thursday 7:30pm ESPNU Arkansas State FIU FIU by 2.5 1.0 FIU
Thursday 8:00pm CBS Sports E. Carolina UCF UCF by 18.3 -11.5 UCF
Thursday 9:00pm ESPN USC Utah USC by 10.8 14.0 Utah
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Friday 7:00pm ESPN Pittsburgh Syracuse Syracuse by 0.1 -1.0 Pittsburgh
Friday 10:15pm ESPN Utah State BYU BYU by 14.5 -7.0 BYU
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Saturday 11:30am CBS Navy Air Force Air Force by 17.9 -7.5 Air Force
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN2 Arkansas Auburn Auburn by 10 -9.5 Auburn
Saturday 12:00pm BTN Mich. St. Indiana MSU by 10.9 16.0 Indiana
Saturday 12:00pm ESPNU UConn Rutgers Rutgers by 6.4 -7.5 UConn
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN3 Buffalo Ohio Ohio by 7.7 -14.0 Buffalo
Saturday 12:00pm ESPN Northwestern Penn State Penn State by 7 -3.0 Penn State
Saturday 12:00pm BTN USF Temple USF by 4.3 4.0 USF
Saturday 12:00pm CBS Sports B.C. Army B.C. by 8.2 9.5 Army
Saturday 12:00pm FX Kansas Kansas State K-State by 21.9 -24.0 Kansas
Saturday 12:00pm FSN Boise State So. Miss BSU by 20.2 10.0 BSU
Saturday 12:21pm SEC Miss. St. Kentucky MSU by 7.5 10.0 Kentucky
Saturday 12:30pm ESPN3 Va. Tech UNC UNC by 2.1 -4.5 Va. Tech
Saturday 1:00pm Kent State E. Michigan Kent St. by 2.4 3.0 EMU
Saturday 2:00pm BGSU Akron BGSU by 0.9 3.5 Akron
Saturday 2:00pm UMass W. Michigan WMU by 9.6 -17.0 UMass
Saturday 3:00pm Fox Arizona Stanford Stanford by 5.9 -9.0 Arizona
Saturday 3:00pm ESPN3 Virginia Duke Duke by 4.1 -1.0 Duke
Saturday 3:00pm ESPN3 N. Illinois Ball State Ball State by 3.6 2.5 Ball State
Saturday 3:00pm ESPN3 C. Michigan Toledo Toledo by 12.1 -10.0 Toledo
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Saturday 3:30pm CBS LSU Florida Florida by 3.2 2.5 Florida
Saturday 3:30pm ESPNU Wake Forest Maryland Maryland by 13.2 -5.5 Maryland
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN Ga. Tech Clemson Clemson by 13.1 -10.5 Clemson
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN2 Illinois Wisconsin Wisconsin by 20.8 -14.0 Wisconsin
Saturday 3:30pm CBS Sports Tulsa Marshall Tulsa by 1.7 3.5 Marshall
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN3 UL-Monroe MTSU MTSU by 1.4 3.0 MTSU
Saturday 3:30pm FSN Iowa State TCU TCU by 2.3 -11.0 Iowa State
Saturday 3:30pm ESPN2 Oklahoma Texas Tech Texas Tech by 10.3 5.5 Texas Tech
Saturday 4:00pm BTN Michigan Purdue Michigan by 3.3 3.0 Michigan
Saturday 5:00pm NMSU Idaho Idaho by 10.1 -10.5 NMSU
Saturday 5:00pm ESPN3 Tulane UL-Lafayette ULaLa by 30.5 -26.5 ULaLa
Day Time TV Away Home Winner Spread Pick
Saturday 6:00pm Texas State New Mexico UNM by 3.2 -3.5 Texas State
Saturday 6:00pm Pac-12 Wash. State Oregon St. Oregon St. by 22 -14.5 Oregon St.
Saturday 7:00pm FSN Vanderbilt Missouri Missouri by 10.5 -6.5 Missouri
Saturday 7:00pm Fresno St. Colorado St. Fresno St. by 24.2 17.5 Fresno St.
Saturday 7:00pm ESPNU Texas A&M Ole Miss Texas A&M by 1.9 12.5 Ole Miss
Saturday 7:00pm FCSC Rice Memphis Rice by 0.9 7.5 Memphis
Saturday 7:00pm CSS North Texas Houston Houston by 2.9 -12.0 North Texas
Saturday 7:00pm Fox West Virginia Texas Texas by 6.8 -7.0 WVU
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 Miami-OH Cincinnati Cincinnati by 25.3 -19.5 Cincinnati
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN3 UNLV La. Tech La. Tech by 18.4 -24.5 UNLV
Saturday 7:00pm ESPN Georgia S. Carolina S.C. by 2.7 0.0 S.C.
Saturday 7:05pm Wyoming Nevada Nevada by 13.6 -17.0 Wyoming
Saturday 7:30pm NBC Miami Notre Dame Irish by 23.4 -12.5 Irish
Saturday 8:00pm CBS Sports Hawaii SDSU SDSU State by 24.2 -21.5 SDSU
Saturday 8:00pm ESPN2 Florida St. N.C. State FSU by 18.3 14.5 FSU
Saturday 8:00pm ABC Nebraska Ohio State Ohio State by 1.8 -3.0 Nebraska
Saturday 8:00pm SMU UTEP UTEP by 5.5 -3.0 UTEP
Saturday 10:00pm Pac-12 UCLA California UCLA by 3.4 3.0 UCLA
Saturday 10:30pm ESPN Washington Oregon Oregon by 23.7 -24.0 Washington