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2012 Turnover Luck (After 5 Weeks)

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Mississippi State has been absurdly lucky so far, and Wisconsin has been equally unlucky. And Notre Dame's (for the better) and Utah's (worse) turnover fortunes have changed dramatically.

Marvin Gentry-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

In today's upcoming Morning Tailgate, the topic is the relationship between turnovers, luck and the 2012 season. I figured I would use Study Hall as a repository for the enormous data table to which I will be referring in the article. The gist: Mississippi State has been absurdly lucky so far, and Arkansas has been equally unlucky. And Notre Dame's (for the better) and Utah's (worse) turnover fortunes have changed dramatically.

(For more on turnovers luck, start here.)

Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Air Force 4 13 8 61.5% 5 12 29.4% 3 -0.1 3.8 1.1 2.7
Akron 5 15 5 33.3% 2 14 12.5% -5 -1.1 -3.9 -1.2 -2.7
Alabama 5 21 13 61.9% 9 21 30.0% 12 6.7 5.3 -0.8 6.1
Arizona 5 20 12 60.0% 5 35 12.5% -1 0.3 -1.3 -2.4 1.1
Arizona State 5 16 7 43.8% 8 19 29.6% 4 2.6 1.4 2.0 -0.6
Arkansas 5 28 14 50.0% 1 19 5.0% -13 -10.1 -2.9 0.8 -3.8
Arkansas State 5 20 8 40.0% 2 12 14.3% -2 0.9 -2.9 -1.4 -1.6
Army 4 16 10 62.5% 1 8 11.1% -4 -5.3 1.6 0.2 1.4
Auburn 4 12 6 50.0% 1 17 5.6% -8 -5.3 -3.3 0.0 -3.3
Ball State 5 7 5 71.4% 3 21 12.5% 0 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3
Baylor 4 8 6 75.0% 6 14 30.0% 5 1.2 4.7 1.5 3.2
Boise State 4 12 7 58.3% 6 9 40.0% 6 2.1 4.8 1.2 3.7
Boston College 4 18 7 38.9% 4 18 18.2% 0 2.6 -3.2 -1.7 -1.5
Bowling Green 5 13 5 38.5% 2 9 18.2% -2 -0.2 -1.8 -2.1 0.3
Buffalo 4 5 1 20.0% 1 12 7.7% -6 -2.8 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0
BYU 5 18 10 55.6% 3 25 10.7% -3 -1.2 -1.8 -0.6 -1.2
California 5 24 10 41.7% 4 15 21.1% -1 0.9 -1.9 1.0 -2.9
Central Florida 4 13 8 61.5% 3 14 17.6% 2 1.1 1.1 -2.9 4.0
Central Michigan 4 9 3 33.3% 1 18 5.3% -6 -1.6 -5.5 0.8 -6.3
Cincinnati 3 11 4 36.4% 4 13 23.5% -1 0.0 -1.7 3.1 -4.8
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Clemson 5 11 8 72.7% 7 14 33.3% 5 -0.1 5.1 -1.1 6.3
Colorado 5 19 12 63.2% 3 20 13.0% -4 -4.8 0.8 -0.8 1.6
Colorado State 5 20 10 50.0% 2 13 13.3% 1 2.2 -1.2 0.6 -1.8
Connecticut 5 15 8 53.3% 3 24 11.1% -4 -1.9 -2.1 1.4 -3.5
Duke 5 16 7 43.8% 5 18 21.7% -1 -0.2 -0.8 -3.5 2.7
East Carolina 5 14 9 64.3% 5 20 20.0% -1 -2.8 1.8 -0.6 2.4
Eastern Michigan 4 14 5 35.7% 2 6 25.0% -4 -2.3 -2.1 -3.3 1.2
Florida 4 7 5 71.4% 6 16 27.3% 5 2.0 3.7 -0.8 4.5
Florida Atlantic 5 21 8 38.1% 4 10 28.6% -2 -0.6 -1.4 2.4 -3.7
Florida International 5 23 11 47.8% 5 25 16.7% 1 2.7 -1.7 0.0 -1.7
Florida State 5 11 5 45.5% 3 24 11.1% 3 6.2 -3.2 0.5 -3.6
Fresno State 5 19 7 36.8% 11 19 36.7% 8 5.8 2.2 -3.7 5.9
Georgia 5 20 9 45.0% 5 22 18.5% 1 2.6 -1.6 1.0 -2.6
Georgia Tech 5 17 8 47.1% 5 18 21.7% 0 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.5
Hawaii 4 16 8 50.0% 1 15 6.3% -4 -1.7 -2.9 -2.3 -0.6
Houston 4 15 7 46.7% 2 11 15.4% -6 -4.8 -1.5 -0.7 -0.7
Idaho 5 16 5 31.3% 4 17 19.0% -10 -6.7 -3.3 -1.4 -1.9
Illinois 5 23 7 30.4% 4 16 20.0% -4 0.8 -4.8 -2.1 -2.7
Indiana 4 4 3 75.0% 3 17 15.0% 3 3.2 -0.2 -0.8 0.6
Iowa 5 11 9 81.8% 6 14 30.0% 7 1.6 5.4 -2.2 7.6
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Iowa State 4 10 1 10.0% 6 24 20.0% -5 -0.7 -5.3 -0.6 -4.7
Kansas 4 11 7 63.6% 6 14 30.0% 6 2.7 4.1 1.2 2.9
Kansas State 4 14 10 71.4% 2 11 15.4% 6 3.8 2.8 2.2 0.6
Kent State 4 9 6 66.7% 5 14 26.3% 8 5.5 3.1 0.9 2.1
Kentucky 5 13 7 53.8% 2 11 15.4% -6 -5.8 -0.2 1.5 -1.7
Louisiana Tech 4 24 17 70.8% 4 23 14.8% 9 5.6 4.3 1.9 2.4
Louisville 5 18 11 61.1% 2 15 11.8% 2 1.5 0.5 -1.6 2.1
LSU 5 17 9 52.9% 8 18 30.8% 4 0.8 3.2 1.2 2.0
Marshall 5 12 4 33.3% 3 19 13.6% -5 -1.5 -3.5 0.5 -4.1
Maryland 4 21 8 38.1% 2 9 18.2% -7 -4.3 -3.4 4.0 -7.4
Massachusetts 5 11 6 54.5% 5 17 22.7% 0 -1.0 1.0 N/A N/A
Memphis 4 21 12 57.1% 3 4 42.9% 2 -1.1 3.9 3.1 0.8
Miami-FL 5 19 9 47.4% 5 11 31.3% 3 1.9 1.1 -0.9 2.0
Miami-OH 5 7 2 28.6% 7 13 35.0% 3 1.7 1.3 -0.9 2.3
Michigan 4 11 5 45.5% 2 7 22.2% -7 -6.6 -0.5 4.0 -4.5
Michigan State 5 13 7 53.8% 4 26 13.3% 2 3.8 -1.8 1.0 -2.8
Middle Tennessee 4 19 9 47.4% 2 4 33.3% 2 1.8 0.3 -0.8 1.1
Minnesota 5 14 7 50.0% 7 21 25.0% 1 -0.2 1.2 -1.0 2.2
Mississippi State 4 14 13 92.9% 9 13 40.9% 13 2.5 13.1 0.1 12.9
Missouri 5 22 16 72.7% 4 16 20.0% 7 2.2 4.8 -1.0 5.8
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Navy 4 16 3 18.8% 4 6 40.0% -8 -5.1 -3.7 1.8 -5.5
NC State 5 19 11 57.9% 7 13 35.0% -2 -6.5 4.5 3.6 0.9
Nebraska 5 24 11 45.8% 3 24 11.1% -3 0.5 -3.5 1.4 -4.9
Nevada 5 21 13 61.9% 2 27 6.9% 2 3.5 -1.5 1.4 -2.9
New Mexico 5 25 16 64.0% 2 17 10.5% 3 1.4 1.6 -2.2 3.8
New Mexico State 5 17 8 47.1% 1 12 7.7% -3 -0.8 -2.2 1.1 -3.2
North Carolina 5 14 8 57.1% 7 17 29.2% 4 1.0 3.0 -0.4 3.4
North Texas 5 11 5 45.5% 8 12 40.0% 5 1.7 3.3 0.6 2.8
Northern Illinois 5 15 5 33.3% 2 22 8.3% -2 3.5 -5.5 -1.0 -4.5
Northwestern 5 19 10 52.6% 2 23 8.0% 2 4.7 -2.7 1.1 -3.8
Notre Dame 4 14 9 64.3% 8 13 38.1% 9 3.4 7.0 -1.4 8.4
Ohio 5 13 9 69.2% 5 29 14.7% 11 10.7 0.3 -0.3 0.6
Ohio State 5 12 6 50.0% 7 31 18.4% 2 2.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3
Oklahoma 3 9 4 44.4% 1 11 8.3% -4 -2.1 -3.2 -2.1 -1.1
Oklahoma State 4 9 3 33.3% 3 14 17.6% -4 -2.0 -2.6 3.4 -6.0
Ole Miss 5 20 9 45.0% 5 15 25.0% -5 -4.9 -0.1 -1.3 1.3
Oregon 5 23 12 52.2% 8 32 20.0% 0 -0.3 0.3 -1.2 1.5
Oregon State 3 10 5 50.0% 3 14 17.6% 1 1.5 -0.8 2.2 -3.0
Penn State 5 14 10 71.4% 4 13 23.5% 7 3.6 3.4 1.8 1.6
Pittsburgh 4 11 4 36.4% 4 15 21.1% 1 2.5 -1.8 1.2 -3.0
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Purdue 4 14 7 50.0% 8 19 29.6% 2 -0.4 3.0 0.3 2.7
Rice 5 19 7 36.8% 4 21 16.0% 1 4.7 -3.7 1.5 -5.2
Rutgers 4 9 4 44.4% 6 21 22.2% 5 5.2 -0.2 2.4 -2.6
San Diego State 5 23 11 47.8% 6 16 27.3% 1 0.0 1.0 -0.2 1.2
San Jose State 5 19 8 42.1% 5 14 26.3% 2 2.5 -0.5 3.3 -3.8
SMU 4 19 10 52.6% 6 16 27.3% -1 -2.9 2.4 -4.2 6.5
South Alabama 5 18 4 22.2% 7 16 30.4% -6 -3.3 -2.7 N/A N/A
South Carolina 5 20 4 20.0% 7 17 29.2% 2 6.1 -4.1 3.6 -7.7
South Florida 5 13 7 53.8% 0 17 0.0% -8 -5.0 -3.0 0.2 -3.2
Southern Miss 4 10 4 40.0% 2 8 20.0% -3 -2.0 -1.2 -2.1 0.9
Stanford 4 9 6 66.7% 7 23 23.3% 5 2.8 2.8 -2.0 4.8
Syracuse 4 10 4 40.0% 3 12 20.0% -6 -5.0 -1.3 0.2 -1.4
TCU 4 18 8 44.4% 9 20 31.0% 4 1.9 2.6 -0.3 2.9
Temple 3 12 10 83.3% 2 13 13.3% 4 1.1 4.9 0.6 4.2
Tennessee 5 20 5 25.0% 9 12 42.9% 1 1.5 -0.5 3.2 -3.7
Texas 4 10 4 40.0% 7 9 43.8% 6 3.3 3.3 -2.0 5.3
Texas A&M 4 15 8 53.3% 4 22 15.4% 4 4.9 -1.1 -4.3 3.1
Texas State 4 8 4 50.0% 4 20 16.7% 1 2.0 -1.2 N/A N/A
Texas Tech 4 10 5 50.0% 5 10 33.3% 0 -1.9 2.4 -0.8 3.3
Toledo 5 16 10 62.5% 7 23 23.3% 8 5.2 2.8 1.0 1.8
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Troy 5 17 6 35.3% 3 15 16.7% -7 -3.8 -3.2 -1.0 -2.2
Tulane 4 12 5 41.7% 3 9 25.0% -2 -1.4 -0.7 -2.6 1.8
Tulsa 5 15 10 66.7% 3 15 16.7% -1 -2.8 1.8 -1.3 3.0
UAB 4 15 8 53.3% 2 11 15.4% -4 -3.9 -0.1 1.7 -1.8
UCLA 5 16 6 37.5% 9 24 27.3% 5 4.9 0.1 -0.2 0.3
UL-Lafayette 4 18 9 50.0% 5 14 26.3% 6 5.0 1.3 0.7 0.6
UL-Monroe 4 9 5 55.6% 8 19 29.6% 4 1.1 3.6 2.5 1.1
UNLV 5 10 6 60.0% 4 26 13.3% 1 2.3 -1.3 1.6 -2.9
USC 4 11 5 45.5% 8 13 38.1% 2 -1.1 3.9 -2.8 6.8
Utah 4 24 9 37.5% 2 18 10.0% 1 6.2 -6.5 1.8 -8.3
Utah State 5 17 10 58.8% 2 31 6.1% -5 -1.8 -3.2 -3.8 0.5
UTEP 5 18 10 55.6% 5 24 17.2% 4 4.1 -0.1 1.3 -1.4
UTSA 3 9 7 77.8% 6 12 33.3% 11 6.3 7.8 N/A N/A
Vanderbilt 4 15 9 60.0% 2 14 12.5% 0 -0.3 0.3 -0.9 1.3
Virginia 5 14 3 21.4% 1 21 4.5% -10 -2.4 -7.6 -1.0 -6.6
Virginia Tech 5 14 6 42.9% 6 17 26.1% -1 -1.2 0.2 1.8 -1.6
Wake Forest 5 11 8 72.7% 3 13 18.8% 1 -1.2 2.2 0.5 1.7
Washington 4 11 7 63.6% 4 10 28.6% 4 1.4 3.2 -2.1 5.3
Washington State 5 14 4 28.6% 6 21 22.2% -3 -0.3 -2.7 0.2 -2.9
West Virginia 4 9 5 55.6% 4 17 19.0% 6 5.9 0.1 0.1 -0.1
Team G TOT.
FUM.
FUM.
REC.
FR% Def.
INT
PBU INT%
of PD
TO
Margin
Adj. TO
Margin
2012
TO
Luck/
Game
2011
TO
Luck/
Game
Change
Western Kentucky 5 13 4 30.8% 6 16 27.3% 0 1.1 -1.1 -1.5 0.5
Western Michigan 5 21 8 38.1% 5 20 20.0% -6 -3.3 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9
Wisconsin 5 20 9 45.0% 0 33 0.0% -3 4.9 -7.9 -0.6 -7.2
Wyoming 4 11 6 54.5% 1 16 5.9% -1 1.1 -2.6 2.4 -5.0