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In today's upcoming Morning Tailgate, the topic is the relationship between turnovers, luck and the 2012 season. I figured I would use Study Hall as a repository for the enormous data table to which I will be referring in the article. The gist: Mississippi State has been absurdly lucky so far, and Arkansas has been equally unlucky. And Notre Dame's (for the better) and Utah's (worse) turnover fortunes have changed dramatically.
(For more on turnovers luck, start here.)
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Air Force | 4 | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | 5 | 12 | 29.4% | 3 | -0.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Akron | 5 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 2 | 14 | 12.5% | -5 | -1.1 | -3.9 | -1.2 | -2.7 |
| Alabama | 5 | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 9 | 21 | 30.0% | 12 | 6.7 | 5.3 | -0.8 | 6.1 |
| Arizona | 5 | 20 | 12 | 60.0% | 5 | 35 | 12.5% | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | -2.4 | 1.1 |
| Arizona State | 5 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 8 | 19 | 29.6% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 |
| Arkansas | 5 | 28 | 14 | 50.0% | 1 | 19 | 5.0% | -13 | -10.1 | -2.9 | 0.8 | -3.8 |
| Arkansas State | 5 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 2 | 12 | 14.3% | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | -1.4 | -1.6 |
| Army | 4 | 16 | 10 | 62.5% | 1 | 8 | 11.1% | -4 | -5.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Auburn | 4 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 1 | 17 | 5.6% | -8 | -5.3 | -3.3 | 0.0 | -3.3 |
| Ball State | 5 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 3 | 21 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| Baylor | 4 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% | 6 | 14 | 30.0% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 3.2 |
| Boise State | 4 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 6 | 9 | 40.0% | 6 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Boston College | 4 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 4 | 18 | 18.2% | 0 | 2.6 | -3.2 | -1.7 | -1.5 |
| Bowling Green | 5 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 | 9 | 18.2% | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | -2.1 | 0.3 |
| Buffalo | 4 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 12 | 7.7% | -6 | -2.8 | -4.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 |
| BYU | 5 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 3 | 25 | 10.7% | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| California | 5 | 24 | 10 | 41.7% | 4 | 15 | 21.1% | -1 | 0.9 | -1.9 | 1.0 | -2.9 |
| Central Florida | 4 | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | 3 | 14 | 17.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -2.9 | 4.0 |
| Central Michigan | 4 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 1 | 18 | 5.3% | -6 | -1.6 | -5.5 | 0.8 | -6.3 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 | 13 | 23.5% | -1 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 3.1 | -4.8 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Clemson | 5 | 11 | 8 | 72.7% | 7 | 14 | 33.3% | 5 | -0.1 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6.3 |
| Colorado | 5 | 19 | 12 | 63.2% | 3 | 20 | 13.0% | -4 | -4.8 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 1.6 |
| Colorado State | 5 | 20 | 10 | 50.0% | 2 | 13 | 13.3% | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 0.6 | -1.8 |
| Connecticut | 5 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | 3 | 24 | 11.1% | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 1.4 | -3.5 |
| Duke | 5 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 5 | 18 | 21.7% | -1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -3.5 | 2.7 |
| East Carolina | 5 | 14 | 9 | 64.3% | 5 | 20 | 20.0% | -1 | -2.8 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 2.4 |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 2 | 6 | 25.0% | -4 | -2.3 | -2.1 | -3.3 | 1.2 |
| Florida | 4 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 6 | 16 | 27.3% | 5 | 2.0 | 3.7 | -0.8 | 4.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | 4 | 10 | 28.6% | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 2.4 | -3.7 |
| Florida International | 5 | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | 5 | 25 | 16.7% | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 0.0 | -1.7 |
| Florida State | 5 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 | 24 | 11.1% | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | 0.5 | -3.6 |
| Fresno State | 5 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 11 | 19 | 36.7% | 8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | -3.7 | 5.9 |
| Georgia | 5 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 5 | 22 | 18.5% | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 1.0 | -2.6 |
| Georgia Tech | 5 | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 5 | 18 | 21.7% | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| Hawaii | 4 | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | 1 | 15 | 6.3% | -4 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -2.3 | -0.6 |
| Houston | 4 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 2 | 11 | 15.4% | -6 | -4.8 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| Idaho | 5 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 4 | 17 | 19.0% | -10 | -6.7 | -3.3 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| Illinois | 5 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 4 | 16 | 20.0% | -4 | 0.8 | -4.8 | -2.1 | -2.7 |
| Indiana | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 3 | 17 | 15.0% | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.6 |
| Iowa | 5 | 11 | 9 | 81.8% | 6 | 14 | 30.0% | 7 | 1.6 | 5.4 | -2.2 | 7.6 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Iowa State | 4 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 24 | 20.0% | -5 | -0.7 | -5.3 | -0.6 | -4.7 |
| Kansas | 4 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 6 | 14 | 30.0% | 6 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 2.9 |
| Kansas State | 4 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% | 2 | 11 | 15.4% | 6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Kent State | 4 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 5 | 14 | 26.3% | 8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Kentucky | 5 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 2 | 11 | 15.4% | -6 | -5.8 | -0.2 | 1.5 | -1.7 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4 | 24 | 17 | 70.8% | 4 | 23 | 14.8% | 9 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Louisville | 5 | 18 | 11 | 61.1% | 2 | 15 | 11.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -1.6 | 2.1 |
| LSU | 5 | 17 | 9 | 52.9% | 8 | 18 | 30.8% | 4 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Marshall | 5 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 | 19 | 13.6% | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 0.5 | -4.1 |
| Maryland | 4 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | 2 | 9 | 18.2% | -7 | -4.3 | -3.4 | 4.0 | -7.4 |
| Massachusetts | 5 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% | 5 | 17 | 22.7% | 0 | -1.0 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A |
| Memphis | 4 | 21 | 12 | 57.1% | 3 | 4 | 42.9% | 2 | -1.1 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Miami-FL | 5 | 19 | 9 | 47.4% | 5 | 11 | 31.3% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -0.9 | 2.0 |
| Miami-OH | 5 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 7 | 13 | 35.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.9 | 2.3 |
| Michigan | 4 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 | 7 | 22.2% | -7 | -6.6 | -0.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 |
| Michigan State | 5 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 4 | 26 | 13.3% | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 1.0 | -2.8 |
| Middle Tennessee | 4 | 19 | 9 | 47.4% | 2 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 1.1 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 7 | 21 | 25.0% | 1 | -0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 2.2 |
| Mississippi State | 4 | 14 | 13 | 92.9% | 9 | 13 | 40.9% | 13 | 2.5 | 13.1 | 0.1 | 12.9 |
| Missouri | 5 | 22 | 16 | 72.7% | 4 | 16 | 20.0% | 7 | 2.2 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 5.8 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Navy | 4 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 4 | 6 | 40.0% | -8 | -5.1 | -3.7 | 1.8 | -5.5 |
| NC State | 5 | 19 | 11 | 57.9% | 7 | 13 | 35.0% | -2 | -6.5 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| Nebraska | 5 | 24 | 11 | 45.8% | 3 | 24 | 11.1% | -3 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 1.4 | -4.9 |
| Nevada | 5 | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 2 | 27 | 6.9% | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 1.4 | -2.9 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 25 | 16 | 64.0% | 2 | 17 | 10.5% | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -2.2 | 3.8 |
| New Mexico State | 5 | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 1 | 12 | 7.7% | -3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 1.1 | -3.2 |
| North Carolina | 5 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | 7 | 17 | 29.2% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.0 | -0.4 | 3.4 |
| North Texas | 5 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 8 | 12 | 40.0% | 5 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.8 |
| Northern Illinois | 5 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 2 | 22 | 8.3% | -2 | 3.5 | -5.5 | -1.0 | -4.5 |
| Northwestern | 5 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% | 2 | 23 | 8.0% | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 1.1 | -3.8 |
| Notre Dame | 4 | 14 | 9 | 64.3% | 8 | 13 | 38.1% | 9 | 3.4 | 7.0 | -1.4 | 8.4 |
| Ohio | 5 | 13 | 9 | 69.2% | 5 | 29 | 14.7% | 11 | 10.7 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Ohio State | 5 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 7 | 31 | 18.4% | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| Oklahoma | 3 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 1 | 11 | 8.3% | -4 | -2.1 | -3.2 | -2.1 | -1.1 |
| Oklahoma State | 4 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 | 14 | 17.6% | -4 | -2.0 | -2.6 | 3.4 | -6.0 |
| Ole Miss | 5 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 5 | 15 | 25.0% | -5 | -4.9 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 1.3 |
| Oregon | 5 | 23 | 12 | 52.2% | 8 | 32 | 20.0% | 0 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -1.2 | 1.5 |
| Oregon State | 3 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 | 14 | 17.6% | 1 | 1.5 | -0.8 | 2.2 | -3.0 |
| Penn State | 5 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% | 4 | 13 | 23.5% | 7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 | 15 | 21.1% | 1 | 2.5 | -1.8 | 1.2 | -3.0 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Purdue | 4 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 8 | 19 | 29.6% | 2 | -0.4 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 |
| Rice | 5 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 | 21 | 16.0% | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 | 1.5 | -5.2 |
| Rutgers | 4 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 6 | 21 | 22.2% | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -2.6 |
| San Diego State | 5 | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | 6 | 16 | 27.3% | 1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.2 |
| San Jose State | 5 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 5 | 14 | 26.3% | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 3.3 | -3.8 |
| SMU | 4 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% | 6 | 16 | 27.3% | -1 | -2.9 | 2.4 | -4.2 | 6.5 |
| South Alabama | 5 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 7 | 16 | 30.4% | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | N/A | N/A |
| South Carolina | 5 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 | 17 | 29.2% | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 | 3.6 | -7.7 |
| South Florida | 5 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 0 | 17 | 0.0% | -8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 | -3.2 |
| Southern Miss | 4 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 | 8 | 20.0% | -3 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -2.1 | 0.9 |
| Stanford | 4 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 7 | 23 | 23.3% | 5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | -2.0 | 4.8 |
| Syracuse | 4 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 | 12 | 20.0% | -6 | -5.0 | -1.3 | 0.2 | -1.4 |
| TCU | 4 | 18 | 8 | 44.4% | 9 | 20 | 31.0% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | -0.3 | 2.9 |
| Temple | 3 | 12 | 10 | 83.3% | 2 | 13 | 13.3% | 4 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 4.2 |
| Tennessee | 5 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 9 | 12 | 42.9% | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 3.2 | -3.7 |
| Texas | 4 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 7 | 9 | 43.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -2.0 | 5.3 |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | 4 | 22 | 15.4% | 4 | 4.9 | -1.1 | -4.3 | 3.1 |
| Texas State | 4 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 4 | 20 | 16.7% | 1 | 2.0 | -1.2 | N/A | N/A |
| Texas Tech | 4 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 5 | 10 | 33.3% | 0 | -1.9 | 2.4 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Toledo | 5 | 16 | 10 | 62.5% | 7 | 23 | 23.3% | 8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Troy | 5 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 3 | 15 | 16.7% | -7 | -3.8 | -3.2 | -1.0 | -2.2 |
| Tulane | 4 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 | 9 | 25.0% | -2 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -2.6 | 1.8 |
| Tulsa | 5 | 15 | 10 | 66.7% | 3 | 15 | 16.7% | -1 | -2.8 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 3.0 |
| UAB | 4 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | 2 | 11 | 15.4% | -4 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 1.7 | -1.8 |
| UCLA | 5 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 9 | 24 | 27.3% | 5 | 4.9 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| UL-Lafayette | 4 | 18 | 9 | 50.0% | 5 | 14 | 26.3% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| UL-Monroe | 4 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 8 | 19 | 29.6% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| UNLV | 5 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 4 | 26 | 13.3% | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 1.6 | -2.9 |
| USC | 4 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 8 | 13 | 38.1% | 2 | -1.1 | 3.9 | -2.8 | 6.8 |
| Utah | 4 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | 2 | 18 | 10.0% | 1 | 6.2 | -6.5 | 1.8 | -8.3 |
| Utah State | 5 | 17 | 10 | 58.8% | 2 | 31 | 6.1% | -5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | -3.8 | 0.5 |
| UTEP | 5 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 5 | 24 | 17.2% | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.4 |
| UTSA | 3 | 9 | 7 | 77.8% | 6 | 12 | 33.3% | 11 | 6.3 | 7.8 | N/A | N/A |
| Vanderbilt | 4 | 15 | 9 | 60.0% | 2 | 14 | 12.5% | 0 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.9 | 1.3 |
| Virginia | 5 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 1 | 21 | 4.5% | -10 | -2.4 | -7.6 | -1.0 | -6.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 5 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 6 | 17 | 26.1% | -1 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | -1.6 |
| Wake Forest | 5 | 11 | 8 | 72.7% | 3 | 13 | 18.8% | 1 | -1.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Washington | 4 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% | 4 | 10 | 28.6% | 4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | -2.1 | 5.3 |
| Washington State | 5 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 6 | 21 | 22.2% | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0.2 | -2.9 |
| West Virginia | 4 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 4 | 17 | 19.0% | 6 | 5.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Team | G | TOT. FUM. |
FUM. REC. |
FR% | Def. INT |
PBU | INT% of PD |
TO Margin |
Adj. TO Margin |
2012 TO Luck/ Game |
2011 TO Luck/ Game |
Change |
| Western Kentucky | 5 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 | 16 | 27.3% | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | -1.5 | 0.5 |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | 5 | 20 | 20.0% | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | -0.8 | -1.9 |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 0 | 33 | 0.0% | -3 | 4.9 | -7.9 | -0.6 | -7.2 |
| Wyoming | 4 | 11 | 6 | 54.5% | 1 | 16 | 5.9% | -1 | 1.1 | -2.6 | 2.4 | -5.0 |
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