F/+ Picks, Week 8: I smell craziness

When the 1:00pm games ended last Saturday, the F/+ picks stood at 9-10 for the week. The rest of the way, the picks went 25-10. Just not a fast starter, I guess.

• Week 1: 22-19 (53.7%)
  Week 2: 22-23 (48.9%)
  Week 3: 24-23 (51.1%)
  Week 4: 30-19 (61.2%)
  Week 5: 21-29-1 (42.2%)
  Week 6: 26-27-1 (49.1%)
  Week 7: 34-20 (62.9%)
• Total: 179-160-2 (52.8%)
  

Those of you who have followed Football Outsiders for a while know that seven weeks is a benchmark of sorts. It's when preseason projections have been completely phased out in favor of opponent-adjusted data that is still a bit unstable here and there, and beginning last year, the seven-week mark is also when a special teams component gets added to the formulas. I hate changing anything after another good week last week, but c'est la vie. Besides, no matter what was done with the numbers, I would say another 40% week is inevitable. Week 4 was great ... and Vegas' Week 5 retribution was swift and cruel.

By the way, when you look at the spreads below, take note of this: Of this week's 55 remaining games, nine have road teams favored by at least 10.5 points. Meanwhile, 22 have road favorites overall. To me, that is a formula for a wacky week of upsets and general craziness. Should be fun.