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Study Hall: South Florida 23, Notre Dame 20

South Florida 23, Notre Dame 20

South Florida Notre Dame South Florida Notre Dame
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 47.2% 51.3% Success Rate 37.7% 56.7%
Leverage % 73.6% 76.9% PPP 0.20 0.34
S&P 0.580 0.907
EqPts 13.7 26.1 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 34.7% 51.3% Success Rate 26.3% 33.3%
Close PPP 0.19 0.34 PPP 0.15 0.32
Close S&P 0.537 0.848 S&P 0.417 0.651
EqPts 7.4 7.1 Number 0 5
Close Success Rate 30.0% 55.6% Turnover Pts 0.0 33.7
Close PPP 0.19 0.26 Turnover Pts Margin +33.7 -33.7
Close S&P 0.486 0.818
Line Yards/carry 2.53
3.36 Q1 S&P 0.887 0.892
Q2 S&P 0.523 0.352
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.300 1.130
EqPts 6.2 19.1 Q4 S&P 0.563 0.953
Close Success Rate 40.6% 49.0%
Close PPP 0.19 0.37 1st Down S&P 0.607 0.900
Close S&P 0.601 0.864 2nd Down S&P 0.569
SD/PD Sack Rate 5.6% / 7.1%
5.4% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.281 0.436
Projected Pt. Margin: South Florida +21.3 | Actual Pt. Margin: South Florida +3

Five Thoughts:

  1. For all intents and purposes, this game played out like your prototypical big upset: dominate in turnovers, make the most of every opportunity, win. Of course, this probably wasn't a "big" upset -- in recent weeks, people have been hopping on USF's bandwagon as a potential Big East sleeper -- but that's how it looks in the box score.

  2. As I mentioned earlier this week, four touchdowns' worth of turnovers probably would have allowed Notre Dame to escape with a win. Alas. That said, while they were unlucky in terms of turnovers, they were also pretty lucky just to get within three points. The turnovers should have led to a 20-point loss.

  3. Notre Dame was incredibly efficient on standard downs, and no matter who their quarterback is moving forward, I expect that to continue. This box score doesn't convince me to ditch the "Notre Dame is going to have an excellent season" bandwagon by any means (other than proving that they aren't going to win with a minus-5 turnover margin) -- Brian Kelly has enough solid weapons to click via run and pass, and the defense will still be strong.

  4. A 0.580 S&P on standard downs isn't going to cut it, Bulls. Notre Dame's defense is underrated, and I know you were just basically running out the clock after halftime, but still. Brutal. The run game needs to improve quickly if USF is truly going to be a Big East contender.

  5. This was a nice "Four Truths" game, at least as it pertains to Truths Nos. 1-2. The first quarter completely and totally defined this game, and big plays (in this case, turnovers more than PPP-related big plays) made the difference.