I just cannot let this game go. I want to watch it again.
Baylor 50, TCU 48 |
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| TCU | Baylor | TCU | Baylor | |||
| Close % | 90.1% | STANDARD DOWNS | ||||
| Field Position % | 70.1% | 41.5% | Success Rate | 48.0% | 48.9% | |
| Leverage % | 0.649 | 0.692 | PPP | 0.42 | 0.62 | |
| S&P | 0.904 | 1.108 | ||||
| TOTAL | ||||||
| EqPts | 34.5 | 40.2 | PASSING DOWNS | |||
| Close Success Rate | 39.7% | 47.7% | Success Rate | 25.9% | 45.0% | |
| Close PPP | 0.46 | 0.62 | PPP | 0.49 | 0.62 | |
| Close S&P | 0.852 | 1.095 | S&P | 0.753 | 1.066 | |
| RUSHING | TURNOVERS | |||||
| EqPts | 14.0 | 7.1 | Number | 1 | 1 | |
| Close Success Rate | 41.4% | 40.0% | Turnover Pts | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Close PPP | 0.39 | 0.20 | Turnover Pts Margin | -0.1 | +0.1 | |
| Close S&P | 0.801 | 0.604 | ||||
| Line Yards/carry | 3.25 | 3.39 | Q1 S&P | 1.060 | 0.934 | |
| Q2 S&P | 0.782 | 1.559 | ||||
| PASSING | Q3 S&P | 0.705 | 2.235 | |||
| EqPts | 20.5 | 33.1 | Q4 S&P | 0.945 | 0.494 | |
| Close Success Rate | 38.2% | 56.7% | ||||
| Close PPP | 0.51 | 1.10 | 1st Down S&P | 1.004 | 0.545 | |
| Close S&P | 0.896 | 1.669 | 2nd Down S&P | 1.290 | 1.167 | |
| SD/PD Sack Rate | 0.0% / 7.7% | 0.0% / 0.0% | 3rd Down S&P | 0.998 | 0.810 | |
| Projected Pt. Margin: Baylor +5.8 | Actual Pt. Margin: Baylor +2 | ||||||
Five Thoughts:
- I know everybody is using this game as a reason to write TCU off as overrated, and I guess maybe they are. But a) in replacing so many key pieces, they are going to be a better defense in November than they are now, and b) there's a decent chance Baylor is going to do this to just about everybody.
- In the past six years, only two teams had gained more than 30 EqPts versus TCU: Oklahoma in 2008 (30.8) and BYU in 2005 (36.3). Yes, TCU might be taking a step backwards this year, but you just have to give Baylor a ton of credit here.
- In the past six years, only 22 teams had managed to register a Q3 S&P over 2.000. Baylor makes it 23. They went into a shell in Q4, but they were perfection in Q2-Q3.
- There's a lot to like about TCU's offense as well. They were solid in terms of both running and passing, though we'll see how good these numbers look when others face the Baylor defense. Phil Bennett was once a solid defensive coordinator, but he's fighting an uphill battle with that D.
- One day I will figure out why some teams are amazing (to an outlier degree) on second downs and why some aren't. Baylor was below average on first downs, but they were so good on second downs that it didn't matter.
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