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Study Hall: LSU 40, Oregon 27

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By Bill C.
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ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 03: Michael Ford #42 of the LSU Tigers scores a touchdown against the Oregon Ducks at Cowboys Stadium on September 3, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 03: Michael Ford #42 of the LSU Tigers scores a touchdown against the Oregon Ducks at Cowboys Stadium on September 3, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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I'm testing out a single-game review format here, so let me know what you think. I'm trying to figure out a quick way to post and briefly analyze games from the previous week. What other games would you like to see?

LSU 40, Oregon 27
Oregon LSU Oregon LSU
Close % 82.9% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 46.3% 52.9% Success Rate 52.0% 34.0%
Leverage % 61.0% 67.1% PPP 0.27 0.29
S&P 0.795 0.627
TOTAL
EqPts 19.7 20.3 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 32.8% 32.4% Success Rate 25.0% 26.1%
Close PPP 0.14 0.30 PPP 0.19 0.30
Close S&P 0.472 0.623 S&P 0.435 0.558
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 5.6 13.9 Number 3 0
Close Success Rate 31.8% 37.0% Turnover Pts 17.0 0.0
Close PPP 0.11 0.30 Turnover Pts Margin -17.0 +17.0
Close S&P 0.430 0.672
Line Yards/carry 2.63 2.22 Q1 S&P 0.458 0.203
Q2 S&P 0.708 0.589
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.097 0.805
EqPts 14.0 6.4 Q4 S&P 0.944 0.776
Close Success Rate 33.3% 22.7%
Close PPP 0.16 0.29 1st Down S&P 0.494 0.639
Close S&P 0.497 0.520 2nd Down S&P 0.640 0.640
SD/PD Sack Rate 12.5% / 0.0% 0.0% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.767 0.716
Projected Pt. Margin: LSU +17.6 | Actual Pt. Margin: LSU +13

Five Thoughts

  1. Both of these teams had awesome Passing Downs defenses last year, and both looked good on Saturday, so the winner was going to be the team that avoided PDs. LSU's Leverage Rate (the ratio of standard downs to total plays) was a bit higher, but as I've mentioned a couple of times this week, Oregon's turnovers led to permanent passing downs, so to speak, and that gave LSU an extreme advantage.

  2. LSU also struggled mightily on standard downs, but the turnovers allowed the Tigers to play things as close to the vest as they wanted.

  3. A 31.8% success rate for Oregon on the ground. Yikes. LSU's defense is phenomenal at avoiding big plays, so a low Oregon PPP was to be expected. But Oregon was incredibly inefficient, and it more or less doomed them, especially when combined with the turnovers.

  4. Look at the third-quarter S&P numbers. Methinks that's when the game was decided, eh?

  5. There was a lot of bad passing in this game. You already knew that, and you didn't need the numbers to back it up, but still.

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