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Week Five F/+ Picks

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TUSCALOOSA AL - OCTOBER 02:  A fan of the Alabama Crimson Tide holds up a sign about Alabama football during the game against the Florida Gators at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 2 2010 in Tuscaloosa Alabama.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
TUSCALOOSA AL - OCTOBER 02: A fan of the Alabama Crimson Tide holds up a sign about Alabama football during the game against the Florida Gators at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 2 2010 in Tuscaloosa Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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The other shoe dropped last week, at least a bit. I was waiting for a slump week, and in missing quite a few "Are you kidding??" games (Toledo failing to cover because Syracuse was granted a charity PAT very much did not split the uprights, Nebraska covering by a point, UCF failing to cover because of three Q4 turnovers, Eastern Michigan covering by a half-point, etc.), we had just that. It still wasn't a 30% week by any means (though I'm sure I just clinched that for this week), but it was still a season-worst week.

Last Week's Results

Week 4 Season
20-26-1 43.6% 92-86-2 51.7%
Upset Picks 1-4 20.0% 9-11 45.0%
0-5 point spread
4-8 33.3% 19-23-1 45.3%
5-10 points
7-3-1 68.2% 26-18-1 58.9%
10-20 points
8-6 57.1% 24-19 55.8%
20-30 points
1-7 12.5% 14-19 42.4%
30+ points
0-1 0.0% 6-5 54.5%

Stick to games with 5-20 point spreads, eh?

At some point in the midsection of the season, it would behoove me to begin to figure out how to properly weight more recent games, as recent performance will begin to matter in projections almost -- almost -- as much as full-season performance. We'll see if I begin experimenting with weights moving forward, but for now these projections are based on full-season ratings.

Date Time (ET) Game Spread
Winner ATS Pick
29-Sep 8:00 PM South Florida at Pittsburgh (ESPN) 2.0 Pitt by 0.2 Pitt
29-Sep 8:00 PM Houston at UTEP (CBSSN) 16.5 Houston by 9.8 UTEP
30-Sep 8:00 PM Utah State at BYU (ESPN) -7.5 BYU by 4.1 Utah State
1-Oct 12:00 PM Texas A&M at Arkansas (ESPN) 3.0 Texas A&M by 3.6 Texas A&M
1-Oct 12:00 PM Mississippi State at Georgia (ESPN3) -6.5 Georgia by 9.4 Georgia
1-Oct 12:00 PM Penn State at Indiana (ESPNU) 16.0 Penn State by 26.7 Penn State
1-Oct 12:00 PM Minnesota at Michigan (BTN) -19.5 Michigan by 30.4 Michigan
1-Oct 12:00 PM Rutgers at Syracuse (ESPN3) 1.0 Rutgers by 10.4 Rutgers
1-Oct 12:00 PM Toledo at Temple (ESPN3) -8.0 Temple by 14.2 Temple
1-Oct 12:00 PM Tulane at Army (CBSSN) -8.0 Army by 0.6 Tulane
1-Oct 12:00 PM Northwestern at Illinois (ESPN2) -8.5 Illinois by 21.7 Illinois
1-Oct 12:00 PM Texas Tech at Kansas (FSN) 6.5 Texas Tech by 15.4 Texas Tech
1-Oct 12:00 PM Air Force at Navy (CBS) -3.0 Navy by 21.8 Navy
1-Oct 12:21 PM Kentucky at LSU (ESPN3) -30.5 LSU by 42.9 LSU
1-Oct 12:30 PM Wake Forest at Boston Coll. (ESPN3) -1 BC by 0.7 Wake
1-Oct 12:30 PM Buffalo at Tennessee (ESPN3) -28.5 Tennessee by 23.5 Buffalo
1-Oct 1:00 PM Cincinnati at Miami-OH (ESPN3) 14.5 Cincinnati by 7.9 Miami-OH
1-Oct 1:00 PM Akron at Eastern Michigan -9.5 EMU by 13.1 EMU
1-Oct 2:00 PM Kent State at Ohio -16.5 Ohio by 26.3 Ohio
1-Oct 2:30 PM Nevada at Boise State (VS) -27.0 Boise State by 33 Boise State
1-Oct 3:30 PM Arizona at USC (FSN) -13.5 USC by 12.7 Arizona
1-Oct 3:30 PM W. Michigan at Connecticut (ESPN3) -3.0 UConn by 3.2 UConn
1-Oct 3:30 PM Marshall at Louisville (ESPN3) -11.5 Louisville by 9.8 Marshall
1-Oct 3:30 PM Georgia Tech at NC State (ABC/ESPN) 10.0 Georgia Tech by 24.1 Georgia Tech
1-Oct 3:30 PM Michigan St. at Ohio St. (ABC/ESPN) -3.0 Ohio St. by 3.2 Ohio St.
1-Oct 3:30 PM Idaho at Virginia (ESPN3) -16.5 Virginia by 10 Idaho
1-Oct 3:30 PM Bowling Green at W. Virginia (ESPN3) -19.5 WVU by 17.6 Bowling Green
1-Oct 3:30 PM N. Illinois at C. Michigan (ESPN3) 8.5 NIU by 15.9 NIU
1-Oct 3:30 PM Baylor at Kansas State (ABC/ESPN) 3.5 Kansas State by 4.8 Kansas State
1-Oct 3:30 PM Auburn at South Carolina (CBS) -10.5 S. Caro. by 13.6 S. Caro.
1-Oct 3:30 PM SMU at TCU (CBSSN) -13.0 TCU by 14.7 TCU
1-Oct 3:40 PM Washington State at Colorado (FSN) -3.0 Colorado by 0.5 Wazzu
1-Oct 4:00 PM San Jose State at Colorado St. (MTN) -3.0 CSU by 3.9 CSU
1-Oct 4:00 PM Arkansas St. at W. Kentucky (ESPN3) 13.5 Arkansas St. by 13.3 WKU
1-Oct 6:00 PM Clemson at Virginia Tech (ESPN2) -7.0 Virginia Tech by 9.3 Virginia Tech
1-Oct 7:00 PM Texas at Iowa State (FX) 9.5 Texas by 7.9 Iowa State
1-Oct 7:00 PM Ball State at Oklahoma -37.0 Oklahoma by 39.9 Oklahoma
1-Oct 7:00 PM North Texas at Tulsa -23.0 Tulsa by 13.6 North Texas
1-Oct 7:00 PM Washington at Utah (FSN) -7.0 Utah by 17.3 Utah
1-Oct 7:00 PM Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette (ESPN3) -9.0 UL-Lafayette by 15.6 UL-Lafayette
1-Oct 7:00 PM Duke at Florida International (ESPNU) -3.5 FIU by 13.5 FIU
1-Oct 7:00 PM Hawaii at Louisiana Tech (ESPN3) -4.0 La. Tech by 10 La. Tech
1-Oct 7:00 PM Memphis at Middle Tennessee (ESPN3) -22.5 MTSU by 19 Memphis
1-Oct 7:00 PM UAB at Troy -16.5 Troy by 20.2 Troy
1-Oct 7:30 PM Rice at Southern Miss (CBB) -15.0 So. Miss by 14.5 Rice
1-Oct 8:00 PM Alabama at Florida (CBS) 3.5 Alabama by 11.5 Alabama
1-Oct 8:00 PM North Carolina at East Carolina (CBSSN) 6.0 N. Carolina by 4.8 E. Carolina
1-Oct 8:00 PM New Mexico State at New Mexico (MTN) 2.0 NMSU by 11 NMSU
1-Oct 8:00 PM Nebraska at Wisconsin (ABC) -10.0 Wisconsin by 24.2 Wisconsin
1-Oct 8:00 PM Notre Dame at Purdue (ESPN) 12.0 Notre Dame by 29.1 Notre Dame
1-Oct 9:15 PM Ole Miss at Fresno State (ESPN2) -3.5 Fresno State by 8.6 Fresno State
1-Oct 10:30 PM Oregon State at Arizona State (FSAZ) -18.0 Arizona State by 26.1 Arizona State
1-Oct 10:30 PM UCLA at Stanford (FSN) -20.5 Stanford by 33.3 Stanford