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The other shoe dropped last week, at least a bit. I was waiting for a slump week, and in missing quite a few "Are you kidding??" games (Toledo failing to cover because Syracuse was granted a charity PAT very much did not split the uprights, Nebraska covering by a point, UCF failing to cover because of three Q4 turnovers, Eastern Michigan covering by a half-point, etc.), we had just that. It still wasn't a 30% week by any means (though I'm sure I just clinched that for this week), but it was still a season-worst week.
Last Week's Results
| Week 4 | Season | |||
| Type/Range |
W-L |
Win% |
W-L |
Win% |
| ALL GAMES |
20-26-1 | 43.6% | 92-86-2 | 51.7% |
| Upset Picks | 1-4 | 20.0% | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 0-5 point spread |
4-8 | 33.3% | 19-23-1 | 45.3% |
| 5-10 points |
7-3-1 | 68.2% | 26-18-1 | 58.9% |
| 10-20 points |
8-6 | 57.1% | 24-19 | 55.8% |
| 20-30 points |
1-7 | 12.5% | 14-19 | 42.4% |
| 30+ points |
0-1 | 0.0% | 6-5 | 54.5% |
Stick to games with 5-20 point spreads, eh?
At some point in the midsection of the season, it would behoove me to begin to figure out how to properly weight more recent games, as recent performance will begin to matter in projections almost -- almost -- as much as full-season performance. We'll see if I begin experimenting with weights moving forward, but for now these projections are based on full-season ratings.
| Date | Time (ET) | Game | Spread (Home) |
Winner | ATS Pick |
| 29-Sep | 8:00 PM | South Florida at Pittsburgh (ESPN) | 2.0 | Pitt by 0.2 | Pitt |
| 29-Sep | 8:00 PM | Houston at UTEP (CBSSN) | 16.5 | Houston by 9.8 | UTEP |
| 30-Sep | 8:00 PM | Utah State at BYU (ESPN) | -7.5 | BYU by 4.1 | Utah State |
| 1-Oct | 12:00 PM | Mississippi State at Georgia (ESPN3) | -6.5 | Georgia by 9.4 | Georgia |
| 1-Oct | 12:00 PM | Minnesota at Michigan (BTN) | -19.5 | Michigan by 30.4 | Michigan |
| 1-Oct | 12:00 PM | Rutgers at Syracuse (ESPN3) | 1.0 | Rutgers by 10.4 | Rutgers |
| 1-Oct | 12:00 PM | Texas Tech at Kansas (FSN) | 6.5 | Texas Tech by 15.4 | Texas Tech |
| 1-Oct | 12:30 PM | Wake Forest at Boston Coll. (ESPN3) | -1 | BC by 0.7 | Wake |
| 1-Oct | 3:30 PM | Arizona at USC (FSN) | -13.5 | USC by 12.7 | Arizona |
| 1-Oct | 3:30 PM | W. Michigan at Connecticut (ESPN3) | -3.0 | UConn by 3.2 | UConn |
| 1-Oct | 3:30 PM | Marshall at Louisville (ESPN3) | -11.5 | Louisville by 9.8 | Marshall |
| 1-Oct | 3:30 PM | Idaho at Virginia (ESPN3) | -16.5 | Virginia by 10 | Idaho |
| 1-Oct | 3:30 PM | Baylor at Kansas State (ABC/ESPN) | 3.5 | Kansas State by 4.8 | Kansas State |
| 1-Oct | 3:40 PM | Washington State at Colorado (FSN) | -3.0 | Colorado by 0.5 | Wazzu |
| 1-Oct | 4:00 PM | Arkansas St. at W. Kentucky (ESPN3) | 13.5 | Arkansas St. by 13.3 | WKU |
| 1-Oct | 7:00 PM | Ball State at Oklahoma | -37.0 | Oklahoma by 39.9 | Oklahoma |
| 1-Oct | 7:00 PM | North Texas at Tulsa | -23.0 | Tulsa by 13.6 | North Texas |
| 1-Oct | 7:00 PM | Memphis at Middle Tennessee (ESPN3) | -22.5 | MTSU by 19 | Memphis |
| 1-Oct | 8:00 PM | Alabama at Florida (CBS) | 3.5 | Alabama by 11.5 | Alabama |
| 1-Oct | 8:00 PM | New Mexico State at New Mexico (MTN) | 2.0 | NMSU by 11 | NMSU |
| 1-Oct | 8:00 PM | Nebraska at Wisconsin (ABC) | -10.0 | Wisconsin by 24.2 | Wisconsin |
| 1-Oct | 8:00 PM | Notre Dame at Purdue (ESPN) | 12.0 | Notre Dame by 29.1 | Notre Dame |
| 1-Oct | 10:30 PM | UCLA at Stanford (FSN) | -20.5 | Stanford by 33.3 | Stanford |
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