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Study Hall: Oklahoma 23, Florida State 13

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By Bill C.
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TALLAHASSEE, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: EJ Manuel #3 of the Florida State Seminoles runs past Gabe Lynn #9 of the Oklahoma Sooners at Doak Campbell Stadium on September 17, 2011 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
TALLAHASSEE, FL - SEPTEMBER 17: EJ Manuel #3 of the Florida State Seminoles runs past Gabe Lynn #9 of the Oklahoma Sooners at Doak Campbell Stadium on September 17, 2011 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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I've somewhat dropped the ball this week in terms of week-in-review posts. We'll say I'm just trying to grow accustomed to my extra SBN writing. That will buy me a week of leeway, right?

Oklahoma 23, Florida State 13
FSU Oklahoma FSU Oklahoma
Close % 100.0% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 23.3% 42.4% Success Rate 35.1% 46.2%
Leverage % 61.7% 78.8% PPP 0.13 0.31
S&P 0.486 0.768
TOTAL
EqPts 8.9 16.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 30.0% 39.4% Success Rate 21.7% 14.3%
Close PPP 0.15 0.25 PPP 0.17 0.05
Close S&P 0.448 0.646 S&P 0.387 0.194
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 2.9 8.0 Number 3 2
Close Success Rate 25.0% 34.2% Turnover Pts 17.0 7.3
Close PPP 0.15 0.21 Turnover Pts Margin -9.7 +9.7
Close S&P 0.396 0.553
Line Yards/carry 1.47 2.49 Q1 S&P 0.489 0.835
Q2 S&P 0.258 0.411
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.567 0.360
EqPts 6.0 8.6 Q4 S&P 0.484 0.753
Close Success Rate 32.5% 46.4%
Close PPP 0.15 0.31 1st Down S&P 0.376 0.681
Close S&P 0.474 0.773 2nd Down S&P 0.403 0.760
SD/PD Sack Rate 20.0%/10.0% 0.0% / 10.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.693 0.339
Projected Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +17.4 | Actual Pt. Margin: Oklahoma +10

Five Thoughts

  1. This was one glorious catch-and-run away from being a blowout. (Yes, you could make the case that OU's offense doesn't snap awake with that play, and the final is a non-blowout 13-6 or something, so let me clarify: even with that one play, and even with mediocre Oklahoma offense, this was a statistical blowout.) FSU ran over three-quarters of their plays on their own side of the 50, and almost 40% of their plays were passing downs. That is not a recipe for success.

  2. I came away from this game much more confident in Oklahoma's defense. There were just enough new pieces to instill some doubt, but the pass rush was phenomenal, Tony Jefferson and Tom Wort were all over the place, the FSU line got no push whatsoever in terms of run-blocking, and OU had a double-digit sack rate on both standard and passing downs. Complete domination ... minus one play.

  3. At the same time, I came away from this game less confident in Oklahoma's offense, particularly the running game. That OU ended up with a below-average 0.25 PPP wasn't surprising -- FSU's big-play prevention is among the nation's best. But the fact that they managed only a 34.2% rushing success rate (with no real big plays) gives me pause. The line got a mediocre push, and the running backs were mediocre, at best.

  4. OU's passing downs offense was horrid. They passed on only 10 of 14 passing downs, meaning the predictability issue I raised last week was minimized. But they couldn't run or pass effectively on passing downs, making me question both their ability to avoid another road landmine (luckily OSU is the only top-notch team they face on the road) and Landry Jones' Heisman credentials. If you want my (non-existent) Heisman vote, you've got to make some tough plays.

  5. Credit where it's due, however: after two atrocious quarters of offense, and after FSU tied the game on an amazing play that made the crowd explode, the Sooners sucked it up and went 83 yards in eight plays to score what would end up the winning touchdown. That drive included a third-and-12 completion to Ryan Broyles, one of only two 'successful' plays they made on passing downs. Timing matters, and OU came through when they absolutely needed to.

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