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The Toolbox: Home Field Revisited

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By Bill C.
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In thinking longer about this morning's nerd tidbit regarding who really has homefield advantages, I latched onto the idea that certain conferences have different baselines. As Year2 mentioned in comments, in a conference like the SEC, almost everybody has a loud, large crowd, and you're more likely go grow accustomed to it.

So what if we were to adjust teams' homefield edges based on the conference median?

Below is how teams rank when you compare their initial homefield edge to the conference median, then apply the difference to the national homefield median of 3.5 points. But first, here are the conference medians themselves:

Conference Median
Homefield
Edge
ACC 2.45
Big 12 4.27
Big East 3.87
Big Ten 3.50
Conference USA 4.67
Independents 1.85
MAC 3.57
Mountain West 3.67
Pac-10 2.59
SEC 2.28
Sun Belt 4.17
WAC 5.51
NATIONAL 3.54

In the SEC, ACC and Pac-10 (yes, Pac-10 -- we're talking about history, not the present), the homefield advantages have been minimal. Teams like Arizona State, Florida and Virginia tend to have larger home-road splits than other teams in the conference, but for the most part the numbers are low. Meanwhile, the teams in the Central and Mountain time zones get a little crazy. Homefield in the Big 12 is significant, and the WAC is even moreso. (And since we're using the median, Hawaii's and Boise State's unique advantages don't skew the WAC averages even further.)

Anyway, when you compare individual teams to their conference median, you get an "Adjusted Homefield Edge" measure of sorts. Looking at things this way gives no love to LSU's Death Valley, but The Swamp passes the test.

Rk Team Original
Homefield
Edge		 Conference Conf.
Median		 Adj.
Homefield
Edge
1 Arizona State 6.5 Pac-10 2.6 8.9
2 Florida 5.0 SEC 2.3 7.8
3 Virginia 5.1 ACC 2.4 7.4
4 Toledo 7.1 MAC 3.6 7.0
5 TCU 7.0 Mountain West 3.7 6.7
6 Boston College 4.5 ACC 2.4 6.6
7 Hawaii 10.1 WAC 5.5 6.5
8 Penn State 6.4 Big Ten 3.5 6.5
9 Army 3.3 Independents 1.9 6.4
10 UCLA 4.7 Pac-10 2.6 6.4
11 Texas Tech 7.6 Big 12 4.3 6.3
12 Arkansas State 7.3 Sun Belt 4.2 6.2
13 Cincinnati 6.7 Big East 3.9 6.2
14 Mississippi State 3.9 SEC 2.3 6.1
15 Boise State 9.4 WAC 5.5 6.0
16 Marshall 7.8 Conference USA 4.7 5.9
17 Buffalo 6.0 MAC 3.6 5.9
18 Indiana 5.8 Big Ten 3.5 5.9
19 Connecticut 6.4 Big East 3.9 5.8
20 Ole Miss 3.6 SEC 2.3 5.6
21 Oregon State 4.1 Pac-10 2.6 5.6
22 Wyoming 5.4 Mountain West 3.7 5.2
23 Nebraska 6.2 Big 12 4.3 5.1
24 Rice 6.8 Conference USA 4.7 5.1
25 Kentucky 3.3 SEC 2.3 5.1

Since my Missouri Tigers are heading to Sun Devil Stadium in early-September, this isn't really what I wanted to see...

(And again, this is looking at the teams with the largest home-road splits. So what it is saying is that a team like LSU might play great in front of the home crowd, but it's also rather likely to play great away from the home crowd, therefore negating what we would consider to be their homefield advantage.)

Full list after the jump.

Rk Team Original
Homefield
Edge		 Conference Conf.
Median		 Adj.
Homefield
Edge
26 Minnesota 5.0 Big Ten 3.5 5.1
27 Purdue 4.9 Big Ten 3.5 5.0
28 Tulsa 6.4 Conference USA 4.7 4.9
29 Utah State 7.4 WAC 5.5 4.8
30 Wake Forest 3.3 ACC 2.4 4.7
31 Oklahoma State 5.5 Big 12 4.3 4.5
32 Troy 5.2 Sun Belt 4.2 4.4
33 BYU 4.5 Mountain West 3.7 4.3
34 Middle Tennessee 5.0 Sun Belt 4.2 4.3
35 Auburn 2.7 SEC 2.3 4.2
36 Oklahoma 4.9 Big 12 4.3 4.1
37 Stanford 3.0 Pac-10 2.6 4.1
38 North Carolina 2.8 ACC 2.4 4.1
39 Louisville 4.4 Big East 3.9 4.0
40 Akron 4.1 MAC 3.6 4.0
41 Ohio 4.0 MAC 3.6 3.9
42 Houston 5.2 Conference USA 4.7 3.9
43 Syracuse 4.3 Big East 3.9 3.9
44 East Carolina 5.1 Conference USA 4.7 3.9
45 New Mexico 4.0 Mountain West 3.7 3.8
46 Missouri 4.6 Big 12 4.3 3.8
47 Clemson 2.6 ACC 2.4 3.8
48 UTEP 5.0 Conference USA 4.7 3.8
49 San Jose State 5.8 WAC 5.5 3.7
50 Iowa 3.7 Big Ten 3.5 3.7
51 Washington 2.7 Pac-10 2.6 3.7
52 Florida International 4.3 Sun Belt 4.2 3.6
53 Iowa State 4.4 Big 12 4.3 3.6
54 Tennessee 2.3 SEC 2.3 3.6
55 Miami 2.5 ACC 2.4 3.6
56 Bowling Green 3.6 MAC 3.6 3.6
57 Northern Illinois 3.6 MAC 3.6 3.6
58 Central Michigan 3.6 MAC 3.6 3.5
59 Louisiana Tech 5.5 WAC 5.5 3.5
60 Michigan 3.5 Big Ten 3.5 3.5
61 Navy 1.9 Independents 1.9 3.5
62 Notre Dame 1.9 Independents 1.9 3.5
63 UNLV 3.7 Mountain West 3.7 3.5
64 Western Kentucky 4.2 Sun Belt 4.2 3.5
65 Air Force 3.7 Mountain West 3.7 3.5
66 Michigan State 3.5 Big Ten 3.5 3.5
67 Virginia Tech 2.4 ACC 2.4 3.5
68 South Carolina 2.2 SEC 2.3 3.5
69 Georgia Tech 2.4 ACC 2.4 3.5
70 Kansas 4.2 Big 12 4.3 3.4
71 Texas A&M 4.1 Big 12 4.3 3.4
72 USC 2.5 Pac-10 2.6 3.4
73 Maryland 2.3 ACC 2.4 3.3
74 Central Florida 4.4 Conference USA 4.7 3.3
75 Florida State 2.3 ACC 2.4 3.3
76 San Diego State 3.3 Mountain West 3.7 3.2
77 SMU 4.2 Conference USA 4.7 3.2
78 Rutgers 3.5 Big East 3.9 3.2
79 Memphis 4.1 Conference USA 4.7 3.1
80 Illinois 2.9 Big Ten 3.5 3.0
81 Nevada 4.6 WAC 5.5 2.9
82 North Texas 3.4 Sun Belt 4.2 2.9
83 Fresno State 4.4 WAC 5.5 2.8
84 Baylor 3.4 Big 12 4.3 2.8
85 Tulane 3.7 Conference USA 4.7 2.8
86 South Florida 3.1 Big East 3.9 2.8
87 Utah 2.9 Mountain West 3.7 2.8
88 Kansas State 3.3 Big 12 4.3 2.7
89 Vanderbilt 1.7 SEC 2.3 2.7
90 Ohio State 2.6 Big Ten 3.5 2.6
91 Northwestern 2.6 Big Ten 3.5 2.6
92 Wisconsin 2.5 Big Ten 3.5 2.6
93 Western Michigan 2.5 MAC 3.6 2.5
94 California 1.8 Pac-10 2.6 2.5
95 Colorado 2.9 Big 12 4.3 2.4
96 Colorado State 2.4 Mountain West 3.7 2.3
97 Oregon 1.7 Pac-10 2.6 2.3
98 New Mexico State 3.4 WAC 5.5 2.2
99 Idaho 3.4 WAC 5.5 2.2
100 Eastern Michigan 2.0 MAC 3.6 2.0
101 Temple 1.8 MAC 3.6 1.7
102 Southern Miss 2.3 Conference USA 4.7 1.7
103 Arkansas 1.1 SEC 2.3 1.7
104 Ball State 1.7 MAC 3.6 1.6
105 Georgia 1.0 SEC 2.3 1.5
106 UAB 2.0 Conference USA 4.7 1.5
107 West Virginia 1.5 Big East 3.9 1.3
108 Pittsburgh 1.4 Big East 3.9 1.3
109 Texas 1.5 Big 12 4.3 1.2
110 Miami (Ohio)
 1.2 MAC 3.6 1.2
111 UL-Lafayette 1.4 Sun Belt 4.2 1.1
112 Duke 0.6 ACC 2.4 0.9
113 Alabama 0.6 SEC 2.3 0.9
114 Florida Atlantic 0.9 Sun Belt 4.2 0.8
115 UL-Monroe 0.9 Sun Belt 4.2 0.8
116 Washington State 0.4 Pac-10 2.6 0.6
117 LSU 0.4 SEC 2.3 0.6
118 Arizona 0.0 Pac-10 2.6 0.0
119 Kent State 0.0 MAC 3.6 0.0
120 N.C. State 0.0 ACC 2.4 0.0

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